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View Full Version : IsAF strategic option?



KCB
18 Sep 09,, 23:32
Guys just wanted to run this past you experts. Regarding IAF strategy against Iranís facilities, once more bubbling beneath the media surface of late. Skipping the whole debate of whether they have the stomach for it or not etc etc. Faced with the complexities they are, routing, distance and loads, managing Iranís AD systems, Iranís responses and ultimately making it all worth while. Amidst all this I was hoping you might comment on whether its feasible to borrow an Island for the duration of the operation as a forward operating base.

Take an Island, lets say Sirri Island for example. About 66km of Iranian coast, one of a number of Islands. Itís a rock about 4kms by 6kms small working population (gas and oil) a 2.5km single hard runway and a small harbor. What more do you need? its basically a rather large aircraft carrier, of sorts.

I will through a very basic scenario out there and let you guys decide whether this makes any sense.

If, in order to mount effective results against Iranian targets, an extensive campaign would be needed to make the effort worth while, as some suggest, rather than a one sortie dash of hope. Then would something a kin to a FARP provide the answer?

How difficult would it be to raid and isolate that island? With enough man power and equipment to act as a sort term airfield?

In a busy shipping lane, prior to hostilities, would it be possible to covertly ship what you need into theater prior to an SF op to secure the island. Reinforced by elements from the shipping and off loading arms fuel and defenses. Undercover of the opening salvos of the campaign say? If those opening salvos are the initial air strikes, cruse missiles, Jerichoís, SF etc etc. or, the ingress could be made less complicated without the need to carry heavy payloads and require re-fuel ops over angry skis? More of a ferry mission to the Island, arm fuel, first sortie?

Remembering at this point the Straits are already under lock down most likely by the US unwillingly having to act to keep the straits open less the world cry for Obama blood in the ensuing financial chaos. US having the choice of; wait until crap hits the fan then play catch up with Iranian navy, or, preempt and dominate the strait ensuring control, either which way US is going to be involved.

Then the first round of sorties could be allowed to focus on AD networks C4, Iranian retaliatory options. Drop in on Sirri Island (now under Israeli control) re-arm re-fuel and now been able to focus on the job of those facilities.

Mission complete, re-fuel for return trip, collapse Island force, recover by air or sea?

zraver
19 Sep 09,, 01:09
You'd ge tthat isalnd swarmed under by IIRGC personnel.

KCB
19 Sep 09,, 17:30
First, one has to assume that the IAF intent is known, i.e amid the chaos of downed communications, and assuming any plan would create an environment that gives Iran more to think about than worrying about losing comms with, no doubt, a number of outlying posts and Islands.

Second, assuming that the Iranians still have the ability to operate in such a fashion. Swarming the Island? How many little boats would a successful raid to recapture the Island under these circumstances require. One would assume Iran has contingence plans for such events. However, in the heavily contested waters of the Strait, during a major event, how much freedom would Iran have to operate. If preempted, by USN to ensure dominating the Strait to ensure oil keeps moving, or am I putting to much faith in the USN ability?

How would IDF defend the island? How much the Iranians know I guess would depend on how well the Israelis plan such an op. an EW blanket? The ability to covertly insert sufficient elements? How long before Iran would develop the awareness of Israeli intent?

I would assume that once the first sorties use the Island the game will be up? Some one is going to have a radar up somewhere able to id enemy aircraft using the Island, no matter how hard you hit the networkÖright?

Bigfella
20 Sep 09,, 05:58
I'm no expert, but doesn't Iran have a bunch of short range ballistic missiles?. Assuming that their initial aim was to simply deny Israel use of the island for refuelling etc., why not just plaster the thing with whatever will fly? You just need to deny use for a day or two. Worry about re-taking it later.

Chunder
20 Sep 09,, 10:33
All that appears to be there is an airstrip, plus several significant above ground storage tanks.

It takes a lot more than just an airstrip to support operations. Israel does not have an expeditionary force with which it would have to supply the island. Furthermore, it would have to resupply the island with access denied by several significant arab neighbors in the area.


You have to look at it subjectively. As it is, all the island providesa is an airstrip with very vulnerable storage facilities, even with modern defence systems - the ability to overwhelm such a small island, is very real.

Remember giving Israel free reign in the straight is as good as an alliance in Arabian terms, which is not going to happen.

captain
20 Sep 09,, 13:36
First, one has to assume that the IAF intent is known, i.e amid the chaos of downed communications, and assuming any plan would create an environment that gives Iran more to think about than worrying about losing comms with, no doubt, a number of outlying posts and Islands.

Second, assuming that the Iranians still have the ability to operate in such a fashion. Swarming the Island? How many little boats would a successful raid to recapture the Island under these circumstances require. One would assume Iran has contingence plans for such events. However, in the heavily contested waters of the Strait, during a major event, how much freedom would Iran have to operate. If preempted, by USN to ensure dominating the Strait to ensure oil keeps moving, or am I putting to much faith in the USN ability?

How would IDF defend the island? How much the Iranians know I guess would depend on how well the Israelis plan such an op. an EW blanket? The ability to covertly insert sufficient elements? How long before Iran would develop the awareness of Israeli intent?

I would assume that once the first sorties use the Island the game will be up? Some one is going to have a radar up somewhere able to id enemy aircraft using the Island, no matter how hard you hit the network…right?

You might want to check what exists on the island of Lesser Tunb and the island within eyesight of Sirri, Abu Musa, before you go further.

Now,,,what was plan "B"? ;)

Cheers.