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  • Central Asia & Afghanistan

    My thoughts revolve around the possible fracture of Afghanistan along ethnic lines and the impact that would have on Central Asian stability.

    The problem lies in the fact that the three dominant ethnic groups ergo Pushtuns, Tajiks, and Uzbeks that reside in CA & Afghanistan have enough critical mass and amalgamated grievances against one another to last them a long time. Each group is over 20 million and has state support ergo Afghanistan/Tajikistan/Uzbekistan.
    Afghanistan's ethnic diversity - CNN.com
    The Online NewsHour: Afghanistan and the War on Terror | Map: Afghanistan's Ethnic Groups | PBS

    Khaleej Times Online - Afghanistan fears ethnic unrest
    Election observers say a second round between Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, and Abdullah, who draws support from Tajiks in the north, risked dividing the country along ethnic lines, and disagreement over the outcome could lead to civil unrest.

    “Everybody understands there is an ethnic issue in the country,” Holbrooke said.

    “It’s a factor, it’s not a concern. Is it a factor that gives us heartburn? No, but it is a factor,” he said.
    U.S. Commander Says Afghan Strategy Must Change - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2009
    strategy change sidenote

    Actually Karzai is pretty smart notice all the ethnic warlords support he drummed up. Perhaps, the country will stay together a while longer.
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6799717.ece
    Last edited by cyppok; 01 Sep 09,, 02:35.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  • #2
    Hazaras go where?

    Pashtun colonists in the north go?
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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    • #3
      Originally posted by troung View Post
      Hazaras go where?

      Pashtun colonists in the north go?
      Hazaras get a republic Hazarastan see problem solved...
      Pushtuns can exchange population with Tajiks near the Iranian border in the South West of the country... Ofcourse everyone will be peaceful and reasonable during the whole thing...


      My guess is once the US-Nato pulls out, everything goes in the air...
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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      • #4
        My whole thesis on the three dominant ethnic groups ergo Pushtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks in CA rests on the notion of each reaching a steady state of say 70% of the ethnic group within the borders of the country and then gradual simmering into a conflict over overlapping ethnic areas. This could happen if each has enough population say 40+/25+/30+ million each respectively. Would be nice to see several strong states emerge.

        Over the short term my guess is nothing will change and the only possible future is the landgrab by Tajikistan/Uzbekistan into Afghanistan IF and or when Afghanistan is left by the US and goes into another round of civil war.

        EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Fergana Valley: Stringent Border Measures Fuelling Tension in Enclaves
        Residents who live in and around Sokh complain regularly about restrictions on their movement, especially since the violent episodes in Khanabad and Andijan, Uzbekistan, in late May. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].The increased restraints have hampered trade, preventing many farmers in the area from bringing their produce to market. The measures have also deepened the feeling of isolation of enclave residents from their countries.

        In addition to Sokh, the Fergana Valley contains seven other enclaves. The Uzbek territories of Shakhimardan, Sokh, Qalacha, and Jangail are all located within Kyrgyzstan’s Batken Province. Kyrgyzstan’s Barak and Tajikistan’s Sarvak both lie within Uzbekistan’s Fergana province. Vorukh and Western Qalacha, two Tajik districts, are also surrounded by Batken province.

        During the early post-Soviet period, Fergana Valley borders were largely porous and unguarded. An insurgency waged by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) during the summer of 1999 and 2000 prompted Central Asian authorities to tighten border controls, seeking to check the free movement of individuals across borders, as well as to step up the fight against drugs and arms trafficking. Such measures had negative economic and social ramifications on regional residents.
        Locals in Sokh complain of isolation of another type. Sokh’s 35,000 residents are predominantly ethnic Tajiks. The majority of local government officials are ethnic Uzbeks. Authorities in Tashkent have long viewed the Tajik-populated enclave with suspicion. The IMU incursions reinforced these suspicions and prompted the authorities to tighten control over movement in and out of the enclave. Between 1999 and 2001, landmines planted by Uzbek authorities to prevent the infiltration of Islamic militants killed at least a dozen local residents. Though the government began to remove landmines in the early 2000s, stiff security measures continue to make travel outside the enclave difficult for residents.

        When it comes to agriculture, enclave residents complain about a scarcity of arable land and pastures, a fact that sometimes has lead to clashes between neighboring villagers. Kyrgyz non-governmental organizations that specialize in conflict prevention in the Fergana Valley have reported more than a dozen border clashes involving enclave residents since the early 2000s.
        P.S. Water is the main issue for Uzbekistan with both Tajikistan/Kyrgizstan planning(but probably will never build) major dams on rivers flowing into Uzbekistan that are vital to its survival and prosperity. Some blame resides on the "unstable" policies of the Uzbek gov't.
        http://www.eurasianet.org/department...080409a.shtml#
        http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2547

        Uzbek government-sponsored Narodnoye Slovo featured a critical piece the other day, condemning the readiness of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to build the Kambarata and Rogun hydroelectric power plant "on strategic rivers of the Central Asian region". Official Tashkent is convinced that it may result in an environmental catastrophe and tragic consequences for the Uzbeks. The Uzbeks have been digging trenches and building walls along the border with Kyrgyzstan since late May.
        They aren't going to war I would hope, but they periodically close down borders on a whim I guess this is to stop the stampede of people trying to go through.
        Last edited by cyppok; 04 Sep 09,, 09:24. Reason: added odd ecerpt
        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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