My thoughts revolve around the possible fracture of Afghanistan along ethnic lines and the impact that would have on Central Asian stability.
The problem lies in the fact that the three dominant ethnic groups ergo Pushtuns, Tajiks, and Uzbeks that reside in CA & Afghanistan have enough critical mass and amalgamated grievances against one another to last them a long time. Each group is over 20 million and has state support ergo Afghanistan/Tajikistan/Uzbekistan.
Afghanistan's ethnic diversity - CNN.com
The Online NewsHour: Afghanistan and the War on Terror | Map: Afghanistan's Ethnic Groups | PBS
Khaleej Times Online - Afghanistan fears ethnic unrest
U.S. Commander Says Afghan Strategy Must Change - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2009
strategy change sidenote
Actually Karzai is pretty smart notice all the ethnic warlords support he drummed up. Perhaps, the country will stay together a while longer.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6799717.ece
The problem lies in the fact that the three dominant ethnic groups ergo Pushtuns, Tajiks, and Uzbeks that reside in CA & Afghanistan have enough critical mass and amalgamated grievances against one another to last them a long time. Each group is over 20 million and has state support ergo Afghanistan/Tajikistan/Uzbekistan.
Afghanistan's ethnic diversity - CNN.com
The Online NewsHour: Afghanistan and the War on Terror | Map: Afghanistan's Ethnic Groups | PBS
Khaleej Times Online - Afghanistan fears ethnic unrest
Election observers say a second round between Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, and Abdullah, who draws support from Tajiks in the north, risked dividing the country along ethnic lines, and disagreement over the outcome could lead to civil unrest.
“Everybody understands there is an ethnic issue in the country,” Holbrooke said.
“It’s a factor, it’s not a concern. Is it a factor that gives us heartburn? No, but it is a factor,” he said.
“Everybody understands there is an ethnic issue in the country,” Holbrooke said.
“It’s a factor, it’s not a concern. Is it a factor that gives us heartburn? No, but it is a factor,” he said.
strategy change sidenote
Actually Karzai is pretty smart notice all the ethnic warlords support he drummed up. Perhaps, the country will stay together a while longer.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6799717.ece
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