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Will the current "Attacks" in Iran influence the election?

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  • Will the current "Attacks" in Iran influence the election?

    Gunmen have attacked Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election campaign centre in the southeastern city of Zahedan a day after a deadly mosque bombing in the city was blamed on Washington.

    State-run IRNA news agency say gunmen on motorbikes opened fire at the centre on Friday, wounding three people including a child who needed surgery for stomach wounds.

    The early evening attack came a day after a suicide bomber killed 25 people and wounded 125 others in an attack on a Shi'ite mosque in Zahedan, restive capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Sistan-Baluchestan deputy governor Jalal Sayah told the semi-official Fars news agency the bombers of the Shi'ite Amir al-Momenin mosque were "hired by America and the agents of the arrogance" - a reference to Washington.
    News Article

    The mosque and election office attacks were reminiscent of violence that preceded Iran's last presidential election in 2005 which Ahmadinejad won, when at least eight people were killed in bombs that hit Teheran and the southwestern city of Ahvaz.
    Do you think that these attacks will rally the population of Iran behind a Ahmadinejad & win him the election again?

    I am interested in who allowed these attacks to happen. I find it so annoying, I cant put it any other way, that they (Iranian Government) blames Washington. But this is politics, & uniting the country behind a foreign threat is always a very strong political tactic.

    These attacks occurred in a Province bordering Pakistan + Afgan...n so I believe these attackers were the result of lax border security + Sunni Militants(looking for a Shite target) spilling over from either Pak/Afg..n. But I cant understand why they would do it?

    At the end of the day though its a political win for Iranian Government, why becasue of the 'Foreign Enemy' tactic that will probably win them the election.

    To blame it on America is absurd, CIA would know that an attack in Iran is not a 'win' for American interests because it unites the people with the government, it would be absurd that if the CIA knew about it that they would even turn a blind eye to these militants moving over the Afgan border, let alone in some indirect way sponsor/approve of such an action so close to the election. Look at how Indians were united after the Mumbai attacks, how the present government got reelected.

    I do hope the Iranian people dont swallow the Washington excuse. What do you think, will these attacks influence the election?
    Last edited by Helium; 30 May 09,, 03:44.

  • #2
    It's just campaign rhetoric by the usual political whores. The fact Zahedan is within spitting distance of Quetta: that the border protection is zilch, and that the police and politicians are paid to look the other way as opium flows out of Waziristan and arms flow in has of course nothing to do with it.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

    Leibniz

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Helium View Post
      . Look at how Indians were united after the Mumbai attacks, how the present government got reelected.
      The Mumbai attacks had nothing to do with the government getting elected. In fact, the anti-government frenzy was pretty high.

      Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
      It's just campaign rhetoric by the usual political whores. The fact Zahedan is within spitting distance of Quetta: that the border protection is zilch, and that the police and politicians are paid to look the other way as opium flows out of Waziristan and arms flow in has of course nothing to do with it.
      Iran does not allow drugs to pass through to Europe. It has been pretty strict in that sense where narco-terrorism is concerned.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by axeman View Post
        The Mumbai attacks had nothing to do with the government getting elected. In fact, the anti-government frenzy was pretty high.



        Iran does not allow drugs to pass through to Europe. It has been pretty strict in that sense where narco-terrorism is concerned.
        I have to disagree, having a foreign threat has been shown as an extremely sucessful tool in politics; take 911 & the mumbai attacks. Ofcourse the mumbai attacks didn't swing the Indian election but they did influence. It's incorrect to say the mumbai attacks had nothing to do with the election.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Helium View Post
          It's incorrect to say the mumbai attacks had nothing to do with the election.
          Should you rephrase that sentence or offer up some more detail?

          Cheers.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by axeman View Post
            Iran does not allow drugs to pass through to Europe. It has been pretty strict in that sense where narco-terrorism is concerned.
            I'm sorry, I didn't realise you'd fallen through a wormhole from an alternate reality. Allow me to bring you up to speed in this one.
            Le Monde diplomatique
            English edition



            THE HEROIN ROUTE FROM AFGHANISTAN TO EUROPE
            Iran loses its drugs war
            Most heroin sold in Europe comes from Afghanistan’s poppies. Drugs cross the permeable border with Iran on their way to Turkey and Europe despite Iran’s desperate efforts, costing many lives, to combat trafficking at the border. Europe doesn’t help Iran with the cost of policing, and does even less to finance Afghan farmers to plant alternative crops.
            by Cedric Gouverneur

            Zahedan is the capital of Seistan-Baluchistan province, at the eastern edge of Iran, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan. At first sight it seems an ordinary oriental town, with a lively bazaar, broad avenues jammed with traffic and poor neighbourhoods on its outskirts. But this is misleading. Zahedan is a vital staging post for international drug smuggling. In streets placarded with posters of Ayatollah Khomeini, army trucks and smugglers’ four-by-fours squeeze past each other. As evening falls men in all-terrain vehicles sell opium and heroin to local buyers. But the real action goes on in the desolate valleys and hills outside the town.

            At night Baluchi smugglers set off for Afghanistan loaded with jerrycans of petrol, which is worth 10 times more there. They return with illegal immigrants. After being harassed by the authorities and exploited on Iranian building sites, some find their way as far as Europe. They represent a secondary trading line for the smugglers, who are more interested in drugs. The Pashtun provinces of Helmand, in the south, and Nangarhar, in the north, are the centres of opium production in Afghanistan. Some is turned into heroin in rudimentary laboratories in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

            Taking the southern route, after a detour via Pakistan, the drugs enter Iran along tracks that smugglers have used for centuries, carried by car or motorbike, on foot, or in convoys of dozens of four-by-fours with escorts bristling with cell phones, night-vision goggles, Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers and even United States-made Stinger missiles. The flow of drugs across the Iranian border is unstoppable. There are even caravans of camels that know the route so well they no longer need to be led. Each animal can transport up to seven tonnes of drugs. At traditional celebrations, the camels are fed opium to make them dance.

            Baluchis, who are Sunni, ignore borders and are distributed across Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Baluchi society is based on clan loyalties and some groups have been smuggling between the three countries for centuries. Some have triple nationality. For many drug smuggling has become the only possible livelihood since drought has affected the area for several years. A high-ranking Iranian official, involved in the fight against drug-running, says "they are just ordinary people". Traditional Baluchi leaders condemn the use of drugs, which is infecting Iranian society (see The enemy within). They are less concerned about smuggling, a source of income for local notables. In Baluchistan there is no need to pressure people to help: clan ties are strong enough. The Afghan brigands who run opium along the northern route in Khorasan province regularly kidnap local people.

            The smugglers risk the death penalty if they are caught carrying more than 30 grams of heroin or five kilos of opium. In March 2001 five smugglers, including a woman, were hanged from a crane in a Teheran square early one morning. In 2000, 900 were killed. Drug-related offences account for more than 80,000 of Iran’s prison population of 170,000. Every year Iranian police and customs detain thousands of first-time smugglers who attempt to conceal opium, heroin, hashish or morphine in the soles of their shoes, furniture, toothpaste tubes, electrical appliances, video cassettes and bank notes.
            Huge profits

            In 1995 a United Nations report said that "annual turnover in the drug trade could be as high as $500bn" (1). The profits are huge. Afghan growers sell opium for the equivalent of $30 a kilo in food. Smugglers earn $15-30 a day. In Zahedan a kilo of opium sells for $100, rising to $600 in Teheran and $2,400 in Turkey. Once refined, using acetic anhydride, it yields 100 grams of heroin. An initial outlay of $100 is enough to set up a laboratory. In Europe the street price for a gram of heroin, from 20-35% pure, runs from $25-35. Up to 90% of the heroin consumed in Europe comes from Afghanistan.

            A dispirited Iranian army officer admits: "Unfortunately Iran is on the shortest route from the producers in Afghanistan to European consumers. The Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union have split into separate countries, with many borders to cross. Via Iran, there are only two." Once the smugglers have crossed into Iran, they stick to the mountainous areas in the north and south until they reach the Turkish border. Near Yazd, in central Iran, the Baluchi and Afghan carriers hand over their cargo to Azeris, Persians and Kurds.

            "After the revolution in 1979, Iran, which had cultivated drugs for years, managed to eradicate growing of opium poppies in a year and a half," says Antonio Mazzitelli, the Teheran representative of the UN Drug Control Programme (UNDCP). Since then Iran has done its best to stem the drugs crossing its territory. The movement for reform, led by President Khatami, is still in charge of anti-drug policies. In January 2001 the Iranian legal system, dominated by Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s conservative forces, made an unsuccessful bid to take over (2).

            Forty-two thousand soldiers, police and militia, a tenth of Iran’s armed forces, are deployed along the eastern border, 1,950 kilometres from Turkmenistan, in the north, down to the Indian Ocean. The border has more than 200 observation posts, dozens of walls blocking mountain passes and hundreds of kilometres of trenches and barbed wire, an investment of $1bn, plus upkeep. Iran’s majlis (parliament) allocated $25m to improve border fortifications in 2000: 3,140 members of the security forces, including two generals, have been killed in skirmishes with smugglers since 1979, a rate of three a day (3).

            In October 1999, at Gurnak to the south of Zahedan, 37 soldiers looking for a band of smugglers led by Mullah Kemal Salah Zehi were encircled and killed by their quarry.

            Ali runs a local radio for Aftab (meaning sun), an Iranian NGO that specialises in helping addicts. One of his friends, newly married and doing his national service, was among those killed at Gurnak. He says: "If Iran let the drugs through, our soldiers wouldn’t get killed and less heroin would stop here. The West, which is the biggest consumer, does little to help. Probably because it doesn’t like us." Many Iranians share this view, knowing Iran’s negative image in the West.

            Besides bilateral meetings between the heads of Iranian anti-narcotics forces and their Asian and European counterparts, international aid is limited. The European Commission and 14 donor countries contribute to UNDCP ($17m a year), which mounts anti-drug operations with the Iranian government. France has supplied 10 sniffer dogs and the UK bulletproof vests. Mazzitelli says: "The UK parliament had to pass a special law to allow the vests to be exported. Even the vaccine for the sniffer dogs has to be imported. One of the ingredients could theoretically be used in chemical weapons" (and so is on the list of banned substances).

            President George Bush has now threatened military action against the axis of evil — Iran, Iraq and North Korea. But Washington has seen Iran as a rogue state (3) for a long time, and more recently as a "state of concern", and has subjected it to unilateral sanctions (4), which have affected the fight against drug running. The smugglers are generally better equipped than the military. Drugs consumed in the United States do not come from Central Asia but from the Golden Triangle further east, and Latin America. So Washington has nothing to gain by helping Iran fight trafficking. (Tension between the US and Iran rose suddenly in January when Israel intercepted a freighter loaded with arms said to be en route from Iran to Palestinian resistance groups.)
            Too long a border

            Iranian anti-drug forces seized more than 250 tonnes of narcotics in 2000. UNDCP estimates that on average states only intercept between 10-20% of all drugs. This suggests that some 1,000-2,000 tonnes of narcotics completed the journey from Afghanistan to Turkey that year. The heads of anti-narcotics forces in Iran are apologetic. One explains: "The border is simply too long, with deserts, mountains and marshes. We cannot control it all." Another says: "We do our best. We’ve lost 3,000 men proving that."

            Shortcomings are apparent at any border post. At Taybad in Khorasan province, we saw an endless line of Afghan articulated trucks, bumper to bumper. The drivers were shifting goods from one trailer to another before entering Iran. Overwhelmed by their number, Northern Alliance soldiers and Iranian border guards cast an eye over passports, vehicles and loads. Underpaid officials must sometimes be tempted by the easy money from trafficking. Official reports do not mention corruption, which seems odd, as in Teheran’s public gardens street dealers pay police patrols $15 a day to turn a blind eye.

            "Only by tackling the root of the problem can we hope to end the traffic," says Hossein Ketabdar, the anti-drug chief of Khorasan province. "Afghanistan is Nothingstan: without opium they would have nothing. We have to lift this country out of its misery and develop replacement cash crops for its farmers." US intervention has so far not dealt with this. "I don’t know whether US bombs settled the Taliban problem," adds Ketabdar, "but they certainly have not solved the opium issue." Mazzitelli is convinced that it has made things worse, making the opium crop even more important for the 3.3m Afghans who depend on it for their livelihood.

            Mazzitelli explains: "Afghanistan produced 4,600 tonnes of opium in 1999. Then, in July 2000, the Taliban banned the crop. It is possible that Mullah Omar took this decision to let smugglers sell off their stocks and push up the market price. Either way, we observed a drastic reduction in the number of poppy fields and production dropped to 185 tonnes in 2001." But with no outside assistance, the growers and their families plunged into poverty. "As soon as the Taliban regime collapsed, the growers took advantage of the chaos to replant their fields," adds Mazzitelli. There could be a bumper crop this June. But it is hard to blame the farmers for trying to survive. "They have no other alternative," he says, "an opium poppy field is worth 15 times more than a food crop."

            In January Hamid Karzai, head of the Afghan interim government, announced plans to end opium growing. The international community, including Iran, welcomed this gesture. But there is every reason to doubt the interim government’s ability to control Afghanistan. There is already open conflict between warlords. As most of the opium is grown in Pashtun provinces, which are particularly reluctant to take orders from the Tajik-dominated government, it seems even less likely that measures to root out the crop will be effective.

            Afghanistan was promised $4.5bn in international aid at the Tokyo conference in January. Iran allocated $560m over a five-year period, $120m for this year. "For now the international community is not attempting to fund alternative development projects and replacement crops, but rather to rebuild Afghanistan’s infrastructure," Mazzitelli points out. Given Afghanistan’s extreme poverty, the fight against opium production could be sidelined.
            Nationwide drug prevention measures in the I.R. of Iran
            Project Number: IRNI55

            Title: "Nationwide drug prevention measures in the I.R. of Iran"

            Background:

            I.R. of Iran is located along one of the major drug trafficking routes. Its neighbour, Afghanistan, is widely known as the main producer of opiates for the global market. Historically, I.R. of Iran has been a society predisposed towards drug abuse. The 1980s saw extensive population dislocation and the psychological impacts of post-war traumas with other transformations in the Iranian society. Additionally a baby boom transformed the population pyramid into an extremely young majority (over 60% of the population are under the age of 30). These social and psychological patterns acted as precursors to addiction.
            Iranian Health authorities report that lowering of the mean age of drug abuse is becoming a serious health challenge. Iran has the highest opiate consumption prevalence rate worldwide with 2.8% of its population aged 15-64 using opiates. The mean age at which hashish consumption is commenced is about 18.9 years and for opiates, 22-24 years. About a quarter of those persons in I.R. of Iran who begin to use opiates have at least one close family member who also abuses opiates. Preliminary reports indicate a rise in the abuse of amphetamine type stimulants (ATS), particularly among Iranian youth. Drug abuse is also a problem in prisons, linked to the individual and social stresses of incarceration.
            In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

            Leibniz

            Comment


            • #7
              Collateral damage to Iran

              While Herat is not the highest-volume area of opium trade, Herat, and the other Iranian border areas of Farah, and Nimroz, have some of the highest prices, presumably due to demand from the Iranian market.[23] "Opium prices are especially high in Iran, where law enforcement is strict and where a large share of the opiate consumption market is still for opium rather than heroin. Not surprisingly, it appears that very significant profits can be made by crossing the Iranian border or by entering Central Asian countries like Tajikistan."

              "The UNODC estimates 60 percent of Afghanistan's opium is trafficked across Iran's border (much of it in transit to Europe). Seizures of the narcotic by Iranian authorities in the first half of this year are up 29 percent from the same period last year, according to the country's police chief, as reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)...The Washington Post reports that Iran has the world's highest per capita number of opium addicts ... Experts say those affected most are the millions of unemployed Iranians and youth chafing under the restrictions placed on them from the Islamic government and basij, or civilian morals police.[24] The Iranian government has gone through several phases in dealing with its drug problem.

              First, during the 1980s, its approach was supply-sided: "Law-and-order policies with zero tolerance led to the arrest of tens of thousands of addicts and the execution of thousands of narcotics traffickers."[24] "There are an estimated 68,000 Iranians imprisoned for drug trafficking and another 32,000 for drug addiction (out of a total prison population of 170,000, based on 2001 statistics)"[25]

              Beehner said "Tehran also has spent millions of dollars and deployed thousands of troops to secure its porous 1,000-mile border with Afghanistan and Pakistan... a few hundred Iranian drug police die each year in battles with smugglers. Referring to the head of the UNODC office in Iran, Roberto Arbitrio, Beehner quoted Arbitrio in an interview with The Times. "You have drug groups like guerrilla forces, [who] ... shoot with rocket launchers, heavy machine guns, and Kalashnikovs."

              A second-phase strategy came under then-President Mohammad Khatami, focused more on prevention and treatment.[24] Drug traffic is considered a security problem, and much of it is associated with Baluchi tribesmen, who recognize traditional tribal rather than national borders.[26] Current (2007) reports cite Iranian concern with ethnic guerillas on the borders, possibly supported by the CIA.

              Iranian drug strategy changed again under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who took office in 2005. Iran's drug policy has been reconsidered and shifted back toward supply interdiction and boosting border security.[25] It is unclear if this is connected to more wide-ranging concerns with border security, perhaps in relation to Baluchi guerillas in Iran.

              Samii's 2003 paper described Iran's "primary approach to the narcotics threat [as] interdiction. Iran shares a 936 kilometer border with Afghanistan and a 909 kilometer border with Pakistan, and the terrain in the two eastern provinces—Sistan va Baluchistan and Khorasan—is very rough. The Iranian government has set up static defenses along this border. This includes concrete dams, berms, trenches, and minefields..
              In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

              Leibniz

              Comment


              • #8
                Parihaka Reply

                That's a story from 2002. Nangahar is out. ZERO hectares planted in 2008. See the 2008 UNODC Afghan Opium survey on that one. We'll see if it holds with the next report. Last year's came in August so we'll know soon, I hope.

                157,000 hectares planted in the 2008 report IIRC. Of that, 147000 was in Helmand, Farah, Kandahar, Oruzgan, and Nimroz (in that descending order) leaving 10,000 hectares planted for the remaining 29 provinces. As much as A.M. might wish to peddle the B.S. elsewhere, this is increasingly not a uzbek, tajik, turkomen problem within Afghanistan (i.e. the N.A.) but a PASHTU issue.

                Dope's moving south into Pakistan where it's the easiest and safest transit, graded, with lower quality dope then used to satisfy a growing domestic audience in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. The rest is passed through to the gulf states and/or Iran for other markets with Turkey receiving a goodly portion of this dope before further distribution to points in Europe.
                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                Comment


                • #9
                  @Parihaka

                  My mistake. I meant to say that Iran doesn't condone the transfer of drugs from Afganistan to xyz.


                  Originally posted by Helium View Post
                  It's incorrect to say the mumbai attacks had nothing to do with the election.
                  I never said the attack didn't have anything to do with the election. I said it wasn't the cause of the government getting elected again.

                  Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                  As much as A.M. might wish to peddle the B.S. elsewhere
                  *Message erased*
                  Last edited by axeman; 30 May 09,, 13:10.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by captain View Post
                    Should you rephrase that sentence or offer up some more detail?

                    Cheers.
                    First; A terrorist attack or any foreign threat for that matter immediately becomes an election issue.

                    Also the occurence of a major crisis before elections can swing an election or at the least drastically affect the polls.
                    Take for example the 2008 US presidential election, first the major issues were really healthcare & the Iraq war. Once it was widely accepted that the US was going to experience a recession then when it was clear the US was in a recession; the economy became a major election issue....I dont think it would be wrong to say THE election issue.

                    The attacks in Mumbai shone the light on Terrorism and/or the ability of each canditates/government to protect the people. To say that Indians didn't go to polls with that in mind is silly IMO. Also, consider that a "foreign threat" invariably unites the population behind the present government, even more so if their response to the attacks is swift + successful. Eg, 911, Mumbai.

                    When the US. Britain + India experienced terrorist attacks, the present governments were reelected at the next election also.

                    When Iran paint these attacks as sanctioned/perpetrated by the USA + Israel it creates a feeling of a Foreign threat & will end up uniting the nation.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The logic you're using is all well and good when it comes to America. The 700 million-odd people which don't live in urban India are more worried about development and economic progress. That is why the UPA was elected. After 26/11, the only thing that was done was to prove that the terrorists were from Pakistan and had trained there. Do we have the capacity to stop such an attack on New Delhi, Mumbai or Chennai now ? God no.
                      I'll say it again - after the Mumbai attack, there was a massive anti-government, anti-bureaucracy sentiment in India. If anything, if the Mumbai attack was at the forefront of the voters minds, the BJP would have won without a problem.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                        That's a story from 2002. Nangahar is out.
                        S-2, I know, but I also linked to the '08 UNODC for more up-to-date internal Iranian data. The Wiki article has good up-to-date links as well.
                        What the article does do is give good background of the flow through Baluchistan/Waziristan into SE Iran and dissemination from there, something that hasn't changed but grown since then.
                        I think it also answers some of the questions of how certain explosive materials and armaments return to the south of Afghanistan, through the hands of those who control the financial strings of the trade both ways: sending idiot young men to die at the hands of NATO: buying the opium from the farmers who because of the violence can't make money any other way: sending the opium out to Iran where their fellow traders based in Dubai arrange for the dilution and shipment to the Iranian population and further afield while also arranging for arms and munitions to flow back the other way where the Talibunnie overlords hand out the guns to more idiot young men and stack their Dubai bank accounts with the profits.

                        :edit: People keep characterizing the war in the south of Afghanistan in terms of religious zeal and fanatacism, terrorism and various governments and tribes hegemony.
                        IMHO it's nothing of the sort except in the minds of the idiot young men of the talibunnies doing the dying: the surviving mujahadeen and startup ISI trained talibunnies have long since moved on to be men of business, gorging themselves on the profits to be made on the margins of conflict.
                        Last edited by Parihaka; 30 May 09,, 10:22.
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by axeman View Post
                          @Parihaka

                          My mistake. I meant to say that Iran doesn't condone the transfer of drugs from Afganistan to xyz.
                          Okay
                          Originally posted by axeman View Post
                          Care to explain this ?
                          He's talking of another poster elsewhere that both of us have shone a light on at other times. You just happen to share the same initials.
                          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                          Leibniz

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                            Okay
                            He's talking of another poster elsewhere that both of us have shone a light on at other times. You just happen to share the same initials.
                            My mistake again, then. :)
                            Apologies, S2.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Parihaka Reply

                              Totally concur. Great point about the maturity of zealotry into middle-man marketing.
                              The channels are well-practiced in both directions but you'd have to agree that Mossad, RAW, and the C.I.A. are the ultimate string-pullers here.
                              "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                              "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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