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  • The Nepal Crisis

    Folks, am mighty perturbed over the state of affairs in South Asia. As as Indian, I find that my country is surrounded by nations --Pakistan, Nepal, China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka --which seem adamant on heading to hell in a bucket. And it scares the @#$% out of me, because two of them are nuclear-weapons states.
    the latest mess in Nepal is a case in point. While ethically and morally India has no right to get involved in the affairs of its neighbors, them being sovereign states and all...the fact is that anything that happens in these nations has a direct impact on India, and it's usually adverse.

    In the case of Nepal, it is even more frightening because of our open border policy, where people can just stroll back and forth across the borders at will. (A senior Indian intelligence officer recently told me that the terrorists coming into India do so with ease via Nepal and Bangladesh. And expressed concern over the fact that a former 'Hindu kingdom' had some 2,800 (at last count) Madrasas operating on the border with India!)

    Commie thug turned Prime Minister Prachanda's resignation over his inability to sack the army chief, (who incidentally was trained in India) means the country faces massive political turmoil all over again. I can only hope that democracy prevails, and that the Maoists, having tasted democracy, do not return to their ganglord days and ways.

    One can only hope that sense prevails.

    More on this as events develop.

  • #2
    Originally posted by ramananda View Post
    Folks, am mighty perturbed over the state of affairs in South Asia. As as Indian, I find that my country is surrounded by nations --Pakistan, Nepal, China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
    What happened to China, Myanmar or Sri Lanka now? Of those the first is doing quite well. I don't know if you happened to see the groveling Ms. Clinton did there?

    The other two are not going anywhere. Sri Lanka hosting a Chinese naval base is not in our interests but that doesn't mean the country is doing badly. If anything it speaks to dismal Indian diplomacy and policy paralysis.
    "Of all the manifestations of power, restraint impresses men the most." - Thucydides

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    • #3
      There will be unrests after the Nepal Moist PM resigns. After this, perhaps a new election.

      Nepal braces for wave of rallies over PM

      5 May Nepal's capital is braced for a wave of Maoist demonstrations after a bitter stand-off with the national army forced the ex-rebels' leader to resign as prime minister.

      The collapse of the ultra-leftists' cabinet after just eight months in office leaves the impoverished country without an effective government, and threatens a 2006 peace deal that ended a decade of civil war.

      Maoist leader Prachanda announced on Monday he was quitting as premier after his decision to sack Nepal's army chief, a longtime rival, was vetoed by President Ram Baran Yadav, a member of the main opposition Nepali Congress party. ....

      The Maoists tried to sack the army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal, for refusing to integrate 19,000 former Maoist fighters - currently confined to United Nations-supervised camps - into the regular army as stipulated by the peace accord.

      The army has refused to take in hardened guerrillas whom it views as politically indoctrinated, and also accuses the Maoists of not fulfilling commitments to dismantle the paramilitary structure of their feared youth wing.

      Prachanda, however, has long argued that the dispute is merely part of a wider campaign to undermine his democratically elected government, which was formed after the ex-rebels scored a surprise win in landmark polls last year. ....

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      • #4
        Strange that you have clubbed China with the likes of Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Mayanmaris...Even Sri Lanka isn't doing bad if the current booting of the LTTE by the SLA is any indication.
        sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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        • #5
          Lets get some objective comparative information how safe are the countries next to India, see below.

          The numbers after the countriies names are taken from the List of Countries by Failed State Index.. The first number is the 2008 Rank. The second number is the 2008 FSI.

          The list is compiled annually by the United States think-tank Fund for Peace and the magazine Foreign Affairs.

          Pakistan, 9, 104
          Bangladesh, 12, 100
          Myanmar, 13, 100
          Sri Lanka, 20, 96
          Nepal, 23, 94
          Butan, 51, 85
          China, 68, 80

          India, 98, 72

          The attitude is that this is the geopolitical reality which one has to be prepared and face.

          India is a huge country of more than 1 billion people, and the economy is still growing even after the global economic crisis.
          Last edited by Merlin; 06 May 09,, 07:41.

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          • #6
            For those upset over my clubbing Sri Lanka and China with the rest of India's strife torn neighbours:
            James McGregor, one of the western world's foremost authorities on China, once told me that the difference between India and China was that while India was unstable above but stable below, with China it was exactly the opposite. The implication being that the simmering instability could erupt when least expected. Of course, he also said: 'We shouldn't be arrogant or dismissive about China because they are not democratic'
            (see rediff.com: China expert James McGregor on India and China and rediff.com: China expert James McGregor on India and China) .

            As for Sri Lanka, while I applaud the way Colombo is relentlessly wiping out the terrorist LTTE, anyone who thinks the crisis can be resolved solely through force needs to look at the history of the country. The Tamils have some genuine grievances, which the government can ignore only at its peril.

            Also, lest people assume that I am taking a holier than thou attitude re India, I will be the first to admit that we do have huge problems: poverty, corruption, maladministration,
            and economic disparity. But at least in theory, we can kick out our rulers every five years.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by chankya View Post
              What happened to China, Myanmar or Sri Lanka now? Of those the first is doing quite well. I don't know if you happened to see the groveling Ms. Clinton did there?

              The other two are not going anywhere. Sri Lanka hosting a Chinese naval base is not in our interests but that doesn't mean the country is doing badly. If anything it speaks to dismal Indian diplomacy and policy paralysis.
              I think he meant that China is a threat, not that it's in "strife". As far as Sri Lanka goes, things are looking up NOW.

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              • #8
                SNIP SNIP...

                .......Meanwhile, a leading US thinktank concluded that Nepal’s political problems could create trouble for India while being beneficial for China which has continued to expand its influence into Nepal.

                “China is more interested in preventing India from monopolising foreign influence in Kathmandu, while New Delhi would rather have Beijing stay out of India’s perceived sphere of influence,” said Stratfor said in its analysis of the latest development in Nepal

                “As this crisis in Nepal is unfolding, India is already extremely consumed with many other issues, which include but are not limited to the ongoing general elections, the implications of Pakistan potentially breaking under pressure from its jihadist insurgency and issues in managing Tamil opposition over the Sri Lankan army’s final push against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam,” the thinktank said...

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                • #9
                  Click into the link to read more.

                  How fierce will the Maoists be now?

                  7 May [Economist] IF NEPAL’S mainstream politicians, army and Big Brother, India did not like Maoists in government, it is hard to imagine how the scrubbed-up guerrillas will be improved out of it. The resignation of the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, or Prachanda (“fierce”), on May 4th offers a chance to find out. Mr Dahal was protesting against a move by the president, egged on by the aforementioned critics, to reverse his sacking of the country’s army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal. Unless President Ram Baran Yadav relents, the Maoists say they will not rejoin the government. ....

                  General Katawal deserved the boot. A devotee of Nepal’s deposed king, Gyanendra, whose office was abolished last year to draw the Maoists into Nepal’s first post-war election, he has never hidden his hatred for his former foes in a decade-long conflict. In December, he refused to curtail a recruitment drive, which the UN called a violation of the 2006 peace agreement. When the government then refused his request to extend the service of eight brigadier-generals, he again resisted. After he forbade the army to take part in an athletics contest last month ....the government asked General Katawal to explain himself on all three issues. His haughty response prompted Mr Dahal’s action. ....

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                  • #10
                    Well I guess Prachanda has some explainin' to do ...
                    Playing day after, the Prachandagate tapes

                    A day after the resignation of Pushpa Kumar Dahal, Nepal’s first Maoist Prime Minister, a video called "Prachandagate” is the talk of this Himalayan Republic.

                    All this doesn’t augur well for the peace process and India that has invested so much in it. New Delhi’s only recourse can be to keep its channels open with the Maoists and hope for the best. Named after Dahal’s nom de guerre (a fictitious name used when the person performs a particular social role), which means “the fierce one,” it shows Prachanda while addressing Maoist cadres, talking about how he hoodwinked everyone about the “real numbers” of his army.

                    "You also know we were just 7,000 to 8,000. But our strategy was to convince them that we were 35,000,” he is seen saying in the one-year-old video. “That way, we infiltrate more people into the Nepal Army.”

                    In the video, Dahal tells his troops that he wants control over the Nepal Army and eventually, he hopes to transform the country to a single-party rule. “That is our strategy.”


                    On a day where only sporadic incidents of protest were reported from Kathmandu, and a large number of political parties sat closeted inside a room trying to thrash out an alternative government, the video made top news.

                    Maoist leader Mohan Baidya, while confirming the genuineness of the tape, made light of it by saying this was “old strategy” and the thinking within his party had completely changed. “One should really investigate why has this tape suddenly surfaced after a year at this time,” he added.

                    Baidya’s hint is clear – he means the Indian government and its alleged Machiavellian role in Nepal’s politics. If Dahal was subtle in his resignation speech on Monday, his number two and the Finance Minister Baburam Bhattarai was bludgeon-like. “India was behind this. It is going to cost India dearly…” The Maoists, clearly, have decided to whip up the old anti-India blame game frenzy.

                    Right from the days of King Mahendra, the “blame India” game has been played out in Kathmandu’s corridors of power – often with justification. The role of the Indian Embassy here is always seen with intrigue and is considered a part and parcel of the power equation.

                    This time too, analysts say, Indians had a strong interest in ensuring Gen Rookmangad Katawal stayed on as Army Chief. First, Katawal has close contacts with India’s top military brass and secondly the man who would have succeeded him – Gen Kulbahadur Khadka — is seen to be close to the Maoists.

                    Besides, there was the China factor. Nepal’s “Big Red” neighbour usually always dealt with the royal palace. But now, after the abolition of monarchy, it has decided to increase its sphere of influence and is openly wooing Nepal’s political parties including the Maoists. In fact, had he not resigned, Prachanda was scheduled for a Beijing visit that could have led to the signing of the first Sino-Nepal Friendship Treaty. So what happens now? The 21 parties who met on Tuesday have already declared that they shall form a national government on consensus. The Nepali Congress Vice President Ram Chandra Poudel said, “We will try to form a consensual government within the time as asked by the President.”

                    That means as soon as Saturday, Nepal could have a new government.

                    But Dahal and his party, the Unified Communist Party of Nepal, are still sulking. The Maoists skipped the all-party meeting on Tuesday, instead demanding an apology from President Ram Baran Yadav for saving Gen Katawal. They have also vowed to stall proceedings in the House.

                    All this doesn’t augur well for the peace process and India that has invested so much in it. New Delhi’s only recourse can be to keep its channels open with the Maoists and hope for the best.

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                    • #11
                      Finally there is a PM elected.

                      Communist leader elected Nepal PM
                      23 May [BBC] Nepal's parliament has elected veteran communist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal as the country's new prime minister in a bid to end weeks of political turmoil.

                      Mr Nepal, the leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), was the only candidate.

                      The former Maoist Prime Minister, Prachanda, resigned on 4 May following a dispute with the country's president. ...

                      ... parliamentary speaker Subash Nemwang announced that Mr Nepal had been elected unopposed as prime minister after the Maoists said they would not field any candidate and would boycott the vote.

                      The 56-year-old was last week named the candidate of an alliance of 22 parties, which have 350 members in the 601-seat assembly.

                      The composition of the new cabinet has yet to be finalised, but the Nepali Congress, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhes Loktantrik Party and the Sadbhawana Party have said they will join the CPN. ....

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