I've been intrigued by the so called "War That Never Was". An all out, mostly nonnuclear conflict between NATO and the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact in the 1987-1990 timeframe.
One thing I've been wondering is what could actually have provoked such an attack?
I'm convinced of the following:
1) Another leader would have had to be in charge of the Soviet Union. I've always thought that Gorbachev believed his western press clippings too much. There is no scenario where he would've seen a massive invasion as the most desirable course of action.
Romanov or some early 1980s hardliner would have to have been in charge.
2) It would've had to be a breakdown in Eastern Europe. Most certainly in Eastern Germany. For example, the Soviets trying a Tianemman Square type of crackdown in late 1989 for example.
The Tom Clancy "Red Storm Rising" scenario with the Soviets launching an invasion because they are running out of oil just doesn't wash. I can't see the Soviets gambling so much just because they are facing a couple of years of low oil and gas supplies.
3) The actual crisis would have to come quickly and take Soviet leaders by surprise. A matter of weeks at most so that they saw no obvious way out besides military action.
I've developed my own WWIII scenario where the Soviets clamp down bloodily in Dec. 1989 leading to a steady decline in relations with the west followed by another rebellion in East Germany and Poland in the late summer of 1990 that convinces the Soviets that military action against the west is necessary.
One thing I've been wondering is what could actually have provoked such an attack?
I'm convinced of the following:
1) Another leader would have had to be in charge of the Soviet Union. I've always thought that Gorbachev believed his western press clippings too much. There is no scenario where he would've seen a massive invasion as the most desirable course of action.
Romanov or some early 1980s hardliner would have to have been in charge.
2) It would've had to be a breakdown in Eastern Europe. Most certainly in Eastern Germany. For example, the Soviets trying a Tianemman Square type of crackdown in late 1989 for example.
The Tom Clancy "Red Storm Rising" scenario with the Soviets launching an invasion because they are running out of oil just doesn't wash. I can't see the Soviets gambling so much just because they are facing a couple of years of low oil and gas supplies.
3) The actual crisis would have to come quickly and take Soviet leaders by surprise. A matter of weeks at most so that they saw no obvious way out besides military action.
I've developed my own WWIII scenario where the Soviets clamp down bloodily in Dec. 1989 leading to a steady decline in relations with the west followed by another rebellion in East Germany and Poland in the late summer of 1990 that convinces the Soviets that military action against the west is necessary.
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