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Iran, U.S.: Obama and the Potential for Cooperation in Afghanistan

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  • Iran, U.S.: Obama and the Potential for Cooperation in Afghanistan

    Cant see this happening at all, but worth a read.

    Iran, U.S.: Obama and the Potential for Cooperation in Afghanistan
    January 23, 2009 | 1210 GMT

    Summary

    Several of the Obama administration’s top foreign policy agenda items significantly raise the potential for the United States and Iran to work together in Afghanistan. These priorities include reducing the U.S. military presence in Iraq, diplomatic engagement with Iran, and the search for alternatives to the increasingly insecure NATO supply routes to Afghanistan that traverse Pakistan.

    Analysis

    Engaging Iran diplomatically is high on new U.S. President Barack Obama’s foreign policy agenda. Tehran also hopes for change with Obama administration after some seven years of limited dealings with the Bush presidency. And Afghanistan could become a place where U.S.-Iranian cooperation flourishes.

    One key issue that could facilitate improved bilateral relations is the two countries’ common interests in Afghanistan. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. David Petraeus noted this during a Jan. 8 talk in Washington, saying that Iran “doesn’t want to see … extremists running Afghanistan again any more than other folks do.” Critically for the United States, Iran could help solve the supply chain problem the United States and its NATO allies have been facing amid the growing insecurity in Pakistan.

    In his previous position as top U.S. commander in Iraq, Petraeus played a key role in U.S.-Iranian dealings, which led to the greatly improved security situation in Iraq. The potential for fruitful U.S.-Iranian dealings and the security gains made thus far in Iraq have reached the point where there are indications from within the U.S. military that a substantial drawdown in Iraq could occur more rapidly than expected. This will not be possible without continued improvement in U.S.-Iranian negotiations, however.

    Though Iraq remains the focal point of Iranian foreign policy efforts, it is hardly Tehran’s only interest abroad. Any settlement between the United States and Iran will involve an understanding regarding Iranian interests in the Levant and elsewhere in the mostly Arab Middle East, regarding Tehran’s controversial nuclear program and regarding Afghanistan. Tehran essentially wants the United States to recognize the Islamic republic as the major player in the region.

    Iran views its sphere of influence as including not only the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant and the eastern rim of North Africa, but also Central Asia, the Caucasus and South Asia. Iran’s ability to project power in Central Asia and the Caucasus is quite limited, however, relative to regional rivals Turkey and — more significantly — Russia. South Asia, by contrast, is more fertile terrain for Iranian interests.

    Although ethnicity and sect serve as roadblocks to Iranian regional ambitions in the Middle East (Iran is Persian and Shiite while most Muslim countries in the Middle East are largely Arab and Sunni), ethnicity and sect work in Tehran’s favor in Afghanistan, with which Iran shares a 582-mile border. Some 30 percent of Afghans are Tajiks, another branch of the Persian ethnicity. And even though ethnically Afghanistan is majority Pashtun, the lingua franca of Afghanistan is Dari (a variant of the Persian language). Finally, 16 percent of Afghans are Shia.

    These factors allow Iran almost to rival Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. In fact, when Afghanistan was ruled by the pro-Pakistani Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001, the Iranians (in concert with Russians and the Indians) supported the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance opposition. In 1999, Iran almost went to war with the Taliban after the killings of several Iranian diplomats in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif.

    The Taliban and their transnational jihadist allies still constitute a threat to Iran, and remain an obstacle to Tehran’s ability to consolidate its influence in Afghanistan. This explains Tehran’s willingness to cooperate in the U.S.-led ouster of the Taliban from power after 9/11. Just as Iran’s allies in Iraq would later work with the United States to forge a post-Baathist Iraq, Iranian proxies in Afghanistan worked with Washington to shape a post-Taliban Afghanistan. Though the exact shape of its cooperation remains unclear, Iran also provided direct logistical support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan.

    To halt the Taliban’s effort to stage a comeback, Washington will soon embark on a military surge in Afghanistan while simultaneously mounting a political offensive much like the one it used to undercut the Iraqi insurgency. This will create an opening for another round of U.S.-Iranian cooperation, one that could prove much more substantial than the previous rounds.

    As in 2001, the United States will once again need Iranian assistance in pulling together a coalition that can serve to block Taliban ambitions in Afghanistan. And the Iranians have something of critical importance to the United States that they can offer in the short term: the shortest overland route for shipping supplies to Western forces in Afghanistan.

    With the principal Western supply routes to Afghanistan, which pass through Pakistan, becoming increasingly insecure because of a raging jihadist insurgency in Pakistan, Washington has intensified its efforts to lock down alternative and/or supplementary routes through Central Asia. The situation is so critical that Washington even appears willing to make concessions to a resurgent Russia to secure a supply chain to Afghanistan for Western forces passing through either Russian territory or the Russian sphere of influence. (Compared to the Iranian and Pakistani routes, these are long, complex and expensive supply lines.)

    A much simpler alternative to traversing the former Soviet Union would be to ship material for U.S. and NATO forces to the Iranian port of Chahbahar. Supplies could be offloaded there and transferred to trucks running on a northbound highway connected to the southwestern Afghan town of Zaranj. Zaranj is connected by road to the Afghan town of Delaram by the Indian army’s engineering corps in a major highway project that was only recently completed. Like Zaranj, Delaram is in Nimroz province, and is connected to the ring road that links the major Afghan cities. If an arrangement can be worked out between the United States and Iran, Western forces could thus reduce their dependence on the main routes through Pakistan and perhaps avoid the logistical and geopolitical costs of having to go transport supplies through Central Asia.

    The United States clearly could greatly benefit from Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan. The extent to which the two sides can work together, however, is contingent on the level of improvement in U.S.-Iranian bilateral relations — and on Washington’s ability to balance the interests of the multiple regional players who have a stake in Afghanistan.

    http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/...on_afghanistan
    Attached Files

  • #2
    Originally posted by 1980s View Post
    Cant see this happening at all, but worth a read.
    I don't either. Especially if Iran continues with their nuclear ambitions.

    Comment


    • #3
      Ahmadneedsajob demands that Obama should apologize to Iran. No kidding

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7855444.stm

      Comment


      • #4
        One must wonder exactly what planet this man takes his thinking from. I'd apologise to him with say a 30-80 kiloton nuclear warhead. I cant wait to see him fall from power which he knows is coming if the Iranian people really pay attention to his tripe.
        Last edited by Dreadnought; 28 Jan 09,, 17:46.
        Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
          One must wonder exactly what planet this man takes his thinking from. I'd apologise to him with say a 30-80 kiloton nuclear warhead. I cant wait to see him fall from power which he knows is coming if the Iranian people really pay attention to his tripe.
          Too much fire power will be wasted. A single 12.7 mm out of a M82A1 will be sufficient.

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          • #6
            It would have been smart on our part. Russia was already making moves to undermine us in Afghanistan at the end of the Bush administration through the SCO. We can either pull Iran in or Russia can.....which is better?
            _________________

            Deo Vindice

            Comment


            • #7
              India has finished construction of a highway linking an Iranian port of chhabar to Afghanistan as an alternate means of supply-route for the NATO forces...US would do good to build up good ties with Iran now that Pak seems to be headed towards disaster..and Us needs another "ally" in the region..

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mercenary View Post
                India has finished construction of a highway linking an Iranian port of chhabar to Afghanistan as an alternate means of supply-route for the NATO forces...US would do good to build up good ties with Iran now that Pak seems to be headed towards disaster..and Us needs another "ally" in the region..
                I don't see that happening anytime soon. I will be happy if we can ensure that they are not building nukes. Anything beyond that is years down the road.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Johnny W View Post
                  I don't see that happening anytime soon. I will be happy if we can ensure that they are not building nukes. Anything beyond that is years down the road.
                  Its either now or never... The entire region is slowly falling to russian influence.. USA's foothold in Pak is now slippery at best... so its either "Hi Iran"...or "Bye Bye Afghanistan" and the same goes for any chance of setting up shop in central Asia

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Johnny W View Post
                    I don't see that happening anytime soon. I will be happy if we can ensure that they are not building nukes. Anything beyond that is years down the road.
                    An recent news about this topic of using Iran as a transit point.

                    NATO would not oppose individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan as an alternative to using increasingly risky routes from Pakistan, the alliance’s top military commander said Monday.
                    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,487445,00.html

                    Iran could easily transport "non-lethal" stuff to the "Afghan government". Given that UAE has extensive business links with Iran, an Dubai company can easily provide "transportation services" to the Afghan nation.

                    India has also invested in the port of Chabbar along with this road link b/w Afghanistan and Iran.The returns being Indian goods destined to Afghanistan are given priority clearance.

                    US has lot of proxies in the region who can provide alternative to Pakistan.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      IMO it wouldnt pay the U.S. to enter talks with Iran so long as Achmedinijad is still in power nor any other hardliners. He has competition in the election as of now and more the likely the U.S. will wait and see until after the elections the course of action they think is best. And that is also provided nothing happens to his competition.
                      Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        dreadnought,

                        IMO it wouldnt pay the U.S. to enter talks with Iran so long as Achmedinijad is still in power nor any other hardliners. He has competition in the election as of now and more the likely the U.S. will wait and see until after the elections the course of action they think is best. And that is also provided nothing happens to his competition.
                        you're looking at the wrong players. a-jad, and for that matter khatami (the reformist), have little power over foreign policy. that is up to the ayatollahs.

                        what they CAN do is change the tones at the margins. a reformer can nudge the ayatollahs toward a direction, and depending on the popular support of that direction the ayatollahs will sit up, take notice, and make a decision...one way or another. the ayatollahs haven't really had to make that decision yet.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          dreadnought,



                          you're looking at the wrong players. a-jad, and for that matter khatami (the reformist), have little power over foreign policy. that is up to the ayatollahs.

                          what they CAN do is change the tones at the margins. a reformer can nudge the ayatollahs toward a direction, and depending on the popular support of that direction the ayatollahs will sit up, take notice, and make a decision...one way or another. the ayatollahs haven't really had to make that decision yet.
                          Agreed, More or less what I was pointing too. I know the president dont make the policy without the Ayatollahs support but its about time that somebody gives this bunch a new direction away from Israel and towards relations that make it better for all concerned.
                          Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This is happening. Clinton is extending an invitation to Iran to join the proposed Afghan talks.

                            US to invite Iran to Afghan talks

                            Mar 6, 2009 (Aljazeera) Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, has said Iran will be invited to a proposed international conference on the future of Afghanistan.

                            Clinton suggested the meeting at a gathering of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels on Thursday.

                            She said the conference involving "all the stakeholders and interested parties" should take place by the end of the month.

                            Clinton emphasised that all of Afghanistan's neighbours would be asked to attend the conference.

                            "If we move forward with such a meeting, it is expected that Iran would be invited as a neighbour of Afghanistan," Clinton told a news conference in Brussels. ....

                            In a sharp turnaround from the previous US administration, Barack Obama, the US president, has said he wants to talk to Iran on a range of issues and the conference invitation would be the start of a diplomatic outreach to Tehran. ...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If developing ties with Iran is to do with finding an alternative route to A-stan then India is the best bet for US. It can use Indian services to transport goods to A-stan via Chhabar. Wonder if it can be done overtly though. I dont know if India requires permission from Iran every time its goods land there or is it a free passage?

                              The other headache is the recent news of Iran arming the Taliban which is of greater concern.
                              All in all, there has to be some compromise sooner or later. America did that with Pakistan when it needed it during the Soviet invasion. It did not mind it developing nukes then. Iran must be given more carrots and got on board with the mainstream world. If it gets higher stakes in international pie then it might abandon its nuke program.

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