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Commando
05 Mar 05,, 10:04
I was just looking over Taiwans and i was quite simply shocked at the magnitude of there air force and the number of f-16's they have.

If conflict did occur when trying to gain independence could Taiwan successfully defend themselves and make the chinese retreat.

Also there missile programs are quite advanced.

??????

amit
05 Mar 05,, 20:00
Well, perhaps they could especially with the backup of the United States & Japan. However, still 1/2 of people in Taiwan are loyal to China. So, it still may be a little difficult.

ajaybhutani
05 Mar 05,, 20:26
Well, perhaps they could especially with the backup of the United States & Japan. However, still 1/2 of people in Taiwan are loyal to China. So, it still may be a little difficult.
well do u have a source for ur claim that 1/2 people in Taiwan are loyal to China.??

Ray
05 Mar 05,, 21:06
Taiwan has no strategic depth.

China can at any time 'capture' Taiwan provided China can organise an invasion force capable to assault be it by air or sea.

There is however only one bukwark against such an event - the USA.

If half the Taiwanese were loyal to China, then the current President would not have been elected.

amit
05 Mar 05,, 21:35
OK. I take my 50% idea back. My source was ChinaDaily which is ran by the Chinese government. Sorry. :(

ajaybhutani
06 Mar 05,, 13:37
OK. I take my 50% idea back. My source was ChinaDaily which is ran by the Chinese government. Sorry. :(
it sounded more like asim/aryan stating that 90% of kashmiris want to join pakistan and so i inquired. I think there are elections in Taiwan wher people vote regularly and select their representatives .even if there was some support for china it would have been visible by now.

FlyingCaddy
07 Mar 05,, 07:13
http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=140

Its a link to a discussion to the known (or hypothesised) Chinese plan to invade Taiwan. In all honesty I think the Chinese would either route the ROC or a hell of a time capturing Taiwan. IMO, The Taiwanese need to stop any assault at the beaches, so if a large enough flotilla can be created to hit two different points namingly one hitting RoC 10 Corp and another either in the north or the south the RoC could have at least 1 1/2 of thier corp strength lost in a matter of days. However if the PLA is convinced they can succeed with one attack they are near crazy. Without primary air engagements over Taiwan will the Chinese have air superiority to aviod assaults on thier flotilla? Second how long would the RoC's navy need to get underway and sweep or at least harrass the Flotilla at it's landing point?

It seems much wiser for PRC to try to negotiate a unification plan which would give RoC autonomy, and the right to retain thier constitution. In exchange Taiwan will have PLA protection of its manufacture and shipping as well as membership in the UN.

antelope
10 Mar 05,, 23:30
China regularly conducts large scale military exercises across the Taiwan Strait that are the early logistical stages of a Taiwan invasion. When these large scale exercises happen the U.S. seldom sends a fleet because they assume it is an exercise. I believe that if China ever does intend to invade Taiwan they will achieve surprise even if the build up is there for all to see.

After the initial massive missile attack and airborne assault I think it fully possible China will be able to land an invasion force during the chaos and shock that will immediately occur in Taiwan.

I also think that if China decides to invade Taiwan they are not going to be humiliated by being defeated. In the event Taiwan is able to recover from the initial strike and put up a defense that puts the conflict in doubt China will simply up the ante with a nuclear weapon. Without nuclear weapons and no hope for victory the Taiwan government will ask for a cease fire and allow the unification of Taiwan to the mainland on China's terms to avoid further bloodshed. If Taiwan continued the war a few nukes later on the main ROC bases and on their surface ships the war ends as Chinese troops mop up the remnants of the ROC military.

The only way Taiwan "wins" is with direct U.S. intervention. Once the first nuke pops in Taiwan I doubt U.S. intervention will be coming.

Officer of Engineers
10 Mar 05,, 23:38
China regularly conducts large scale military exercises across the Taiwan Strait that are the early logistical stages of a Taiwan invasion.

Got to put this in perspective though. These exercise though at times mention 100s of 1000s of men only have actually a regt or two involved. The reference to those large numbers are the representation of the units that were represented.

amit
11 Mar 05,, 02:22
I have a feeling that an attack will be on Taiwan after the Beijing Olympics in 2008.

Ray
11 Mar 05,, 04:59
The Chinese are very pragmatic.

There will be no attack in the near future. She is not in a position to take on the US, Japan and South Korea at the moment.

In such a conflict, India will also be drawn in under US pressure.

It must be understood that the US is not hanging around in Afghanistan or making inroads into Pakistan, Balochistan and the CAR for the sake of 'Freedom and Democracy' and other such moralistic rhetoric.

It is a very deliberate and calculated strategic plan to encircle China and sqeeze her out like they squeezed out the USSR.

There is a belief that the US is very keen on the Moslem unrest in Xingjian and hence they have military and 'other' presence in CAR including Kyrgyzthan.

The peace overtures of HH Dalai Lama and the desire to return to Tibet could also have meaning.

antelope
11 Mar 05,, 20:24
It is a very deliberate and calculated strategic plan to encircle China and sqeeze her out like they squeezed out the USSR.


It is this belief among the Chinese leadership that drives there world wide weapons proliferation and destabilizing policies in the Muslim world in an attempt to thin out and weaken America.

When the Chinese respond to this assumption those in the U.S. government respond by enacting a policy of containment.

Both sides are implementing a self-fullfilling prophecy that will ultimately lead to war unless more enlightened leadership comes to both countries.

Karthik
12 Mar 05,, 18:00
I have a feeling that an attack will be on Taiwan after the Beijing Olympics in 2008

What about the economic implications of such an attack ? Would Beijing be willing to risk the economy ? Because any such attack will undoubtedly have economic ramifications that can potentially affect the entire East Asian region.