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The Coming War with Iran and The Future of the Clash of Civilizations
Iran is said to be building nuclear weapons. If in fact this is the case, US and its Allies are unlikely to allow this to happen. Many commentators have commented that war is likely, if not inevitable, Bush as president or not. The magnitude of a war with Iran and its strategic consequences are vast, and the impact of this on the future of the Muslim World is in my honest opinion, not being understood by the masses.
I believe that war with Iran is imminent. Iran is about to be blown out of the water - as is indicated by recent US military buildup around the Gulf (and not just in Iraq). The Israeli affair in Syria (and I don't think it was about North Korea at all), recent statements by the French Foreign Minister, labeling the Quds force as terrorists, pressure on the security council, steady propaganda buildup in the US media, all seem to be building up to an attack. [Update: Obama's Zionist packed administration is unlikely to change this assessment].
It is imperative for Iran to be prepared. In an attack scenario, massive air-raids could take out everything they have, including much of their industrial base and civilian infrastructure. Iran could be bombed to the stone age, minus the oil related infrastructure. Just as the once modern and industrialized parts of Iraq now lie in ruin. But what does Iran have, that it can bank on for such a confrontation? Has it been preparing for this? Do they know what is headed their way? Unfortunately, despite the bluster from Ahmedinejad, Iran today does not have much that it can count on. Iran does have a military-industrial base, something few Muslim countries have. Yet their technology level is of the 1970s and years of incompetent policies has resulted in little improvement. Their military is unlikely to be more than a speed bump for kind of attack the US is planning.
The Iranians have repeatedly refused to upgrade their air defenses, insidious politics and the perception that their air force has been pro-Shah has meant their most valued military arm is no more than a stinted and emaciated old man. But even if they upgraded and mustered squadrons of Su-27 FLANKERS or S-300s, their defenses would eventually crumble against overwhelming odds. This simple military fact somehow never sunk in for the Iranians. They cannot fight a guerilla war to protect their society, infrastructure and industries. Conventional war is still an exclusive weapon of the West. The best thing they can do is to disassemble their nuclear installations and spread them into a million different locations, to salvage something of their nuclear technology. Investing in serious dispersed and layered SAM defenses may also be somewhat effective. Nothing can substitute a well-trained air force.
Iran has barely invested in upgrading any of its major weapons systems. They have wasted their time and energy in building outdated weapons and "national development projects" that today are obsolete and ineffective in a modern conventional war. Building copies of the F-5 will not do anything for Iran. It will at best mean US pilots have to spend an extra few days shooting them down. What a shame. Arrogance leading to blindlness, blindness to tragedy.
And yet with darkness there is always light; On the other side of the coin, Iran has played its political cards well with Syria and Hezbollah and also built a solid base in Iraq. It can win a guerilla war. But nobody ever wins a guerilla war, the price you pay is beyond estimation, beyond rationalization, beyond logic. Suffering that haunts for generations without end.
Yet, again, unity brings hope. One can go so far as to speculate and alliance with the Taliban as indicated by the latter's new Chinese weapons and IEDs. The Chinese are not supplying the Taliban, and Pakistan is also unlikely to do so. It seems clear that an uneasy but quickly solidifying alliance is forming between the unlikely - Iran and the Taliban. This is really the most significant event in recent history amongst Muslims. This could be the first time in a centuries that the Shias and the Sunnis are coming together (as they always should have) and fighting a united battle, globally. And herein lies that silver lining we have so earnestly searched for.
In the global war against Islam, after the fall of Iran, (and this I am assuming is a foregone conclusion), only one major Muslim country will be left that would still need to be reckoned with - Pakistan. Pakistan with the finest Muslim army in the contemporary world, with technology and tactics that are "good enough" to go toe-to-toe against a Western foe. Pakistan with its nuclear weapons, modern weapon systems ranging from cruise missiles to tanks and combat aircraft. Pakistan. The last hope.
And yet, today Pakistan is not yet ready to stand alone. Pakistan needs time, time to overcome its corrupt politicians and generals. Time for the Pakistani military-industrial projects to mature, which in a decade will become a bastion of self-reliance and strength. And thus we hope to buy time for Pakistan. And perhaps the fight for Iran, particularly if it gets bogged down, just might give Pakistan that needed time to prepare.
It has been most surprising to see that China has not played its hand yet. Yet, 2008 is a vital policy year for China, and it is likely that Chinese policies will change dramatically from 2009. A resurgent China will play a vital role for Pakistan against a common encircling. enemy. With the fall of Iran, China will lose its last bastion in the middle east and will effectively be in strategically unsound waters for Peak Oil. Perhaps China needs to start thinking globally. A minimalist, low key approach is not always the best choice. As in the game of chess, when the end game begins, the more aggressive player typically wins. And if China fails to radically shift its foreign policy, they will face defeat.
And thus, as we look at the wider picture, a picture not unlike the pre-WWII world, we seefailing markets and a global currency in crisis stretch diplomacy between the Great Nations. A world with powers vying for limited resources. We see that the world is moving back to a period not dissimilar to colonial times and this is becoming more of a war between the Third World and the First World, as much as it is a war between the West and Islam. Let us take pause and remember that it was not the Third World which freed itself. It was the battle to grab our resources within the First World that perchance resulted in our freedom, a freedom we have managed to lose since. And Japan was a rising power, a Third World nation that had forgotten its place not unlike China today. In a surpising twist of history, we owe our freedoms to these upstarts and today, any victory against the West has to include a clear strategy vis-a-vis China. Without China, no matter how hard we fight, we have lost the war before fighting it.
For our part, we must unite first, as one Muslim global community before we can look to anyone else. Only through unity can we even begin to have a chance. We have not been united or functional in a long time, but the present climate is forcing us to again become united. We then need a vision and a plan on what needs to be done.
If I were to paint a picture of what needs to be done in the Islamic world, it would be built around a revolution in thinking and in particular, Islamic Economics. The founding blocks of any military might is Economics. Terrorism can neither defend Islam nor defeat our enemies. Today our economic systems are badly made replicas of the West, and are highly ineffective. Our thinkers do not trust in themselves to build a better system and believe that a system built around such things as no interest amongst other Islamic salients, is impossible. However, it is possible and has already been worked on in great detail in the centers of Islamic learning around the world. This in the end, can be our only real weapon in defending ourselves, mundane Economics.
The second important aspect is to build a solid industrial base and an effective military-industrial complex. Pakistan, Malaysia and Iran are the only Muslim countries that have anything resembling an industrial base (Turkey never counts). Pakistan and Iran are the only countries that have effectively invested in building this into a military-industrial complex. Of them, Iran is more self-sufficient while being technologically outdated, and Pakistan is quite a bit more dependent on foreign suppliers while being a most remarkable model in terms of technological prowess and successful projects. The Al-Khalid Tank, the JF-17 fighter, cruise missiles are but a few examples of what Pakistan has achieved, far beyond the wildest dreams of the rest of the Muslim world. The JF-17 and the J-10, in the scenario that Pakistan is confronted by the West, would play a key role in providing credible defense against western air power. For the first time since Japan's Zero fighters, we as Asians have something to fight with.
Virtually every single weapon system Pakistan has developed is the first of its kind in the Muslim world, in terms of combat effectiveness and independence of production and supply. The JF-17 is the pinnacle of this. Weapon systems such as the JF-17, Al-Khalid and Babur amongst others have no equivalents in the Islamic world and remain but pipe dreams, if even that. These weapon systems and the extreme professionalism of the Pakistan military are what will (hopefully) differentiate Pakistan from Iraq and Iran. Nuclear weapons are unlikely to be of much use, given both sides will have these but is likely to keep India at bay.
Pakistan really is our last hope, and the last hope of the Islamic world. It is true that Pakistanis owe nothing to the Muslim world (as pro-Musharaf supporters like to point out), who have been a hindrance if anything and often supported their arch enemy, India. Yet, a time is coming when the rest of the Islamic world would gladly beg Pakistan to save the rest of us, and they will be the only ones to be able to do it. I know deep down that beyond Musharraf, most Pakistanis do not believe in a Pakistan-only-excluding-Islamic-world-centric doctrine.
Back in time, I personally supported Musharraf when he came to power and then opposed him when he let the Americans free access. In retrospect, while I still disagree with siding with the Americans, the last 7 years has given vital breathing space to buildup Pakistan, economically, industrially and militarily. The tradeoff in the real-politic is obviously Waziristan. Perhaps that tradeoff will now come back to change things the less pleasant way. This has been an era for Pakistan and now this era of supporting the US is in decline.
Times are changing, and neither Musharraf nor the old political elite can help. On the other hand it will serve no purpose to have a Taliban revolution that would put such matters into the hands of simple minded men. The best thing that could happen at this point in Pakistan is an internal coup by the army, led by someone like General Usmani. The "right time" for this will be in the immediate aftermath of the bombing-to-the-stone-age of Iran.
Moving on to Afghanistan, what will happen in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of Iran, is a huge movement combining for the first time, the Taliban and the Iranian Shiite movement. If such an alliance forms, this would unite the Islamic front for the first time in 1400 years. As I have noted earlier, there are already signs of such cooperation, including the Taliban's brand new Chinese weapons.
While I have attempted to talk of the immediate tactics to what is being presumed to happen very soon, I have left out the politico-spiritual aspect of it. This is as important, if not the most important part. Only through unity can we succeed against the present overwhelming odds. I believe the spiritual leadership of Islam resides no more within the Arab world or in the Ayatollahs of Iran, but rather they reside in the West. Men like Yusuf Islam and Yusuf Estes would befit the moral leadership of the Islamic world, far more than any Saudi sheikh or Iranian cleric would, and would be far more acceptable to the Islamic world, as a whole, and not divided in parts. They would also avoid a power struggle or a split. The men best suited to lead us against the West, and being reverts to Islam, really have the essence of what being a true Muslim means. I would dearly like to see a great migration of such men to the Muslim world.
Whether the coming war with Iran triggers this or some crazy terror attack, a migration of Muslims from the West back to their countries would be most helpful to the Muslim world. They would bring back key skills and knowledge that would help galvanize local economies. This has already happened to a great extent after 9/11. If you look at the 6 years after 9/11, Muslim countries with sizable immigrant populations abroad like Pakistan and Bangladesh have significantly benefited from inflows of migrants, investments and technical skills. This is both reflected in GDP growth rates in an otherwise anemic global economy, as well as in net investments and net exports. Islamabad and Dhaka (to name two) in 1997 and in 2007 are completely unrecognizable places, not completely unlike in their pace of growth to Beijing.
I personally hope that none of what I have guesstimated ever comes true, and I certainly also hope any of my readers don't get caught in it if it does happen. I am not a war-monger, and I don't think I ever want to do anything that will harm another human being, whether he or she be Muslim, Christian or Jewish. Yet in such times it would be a crime not to prepare. For we all hold the guilt of inactivity every time an Iraqi dies at some crazy US soldier's hands. For every Guantanamo Bay innocent prisoner. For every house gone to "collateral damage". For everything that you and I know, but do not want to recall, for the guilt in our hearts wants to forget.
http://www.grandestrategy.com/2007/0...future-of.html
Iran is said to be building nuclear weapons. If in fact this is the case, US and its Allies are unlikely to allow this to happen. Many commentators have commented that war is likely, if not inevitable, Bush as president or not. The magnitude of a war with Iran and its strategic consequences are vast, and the impact of this on the future of the Muslim World is in my honest opinion, not being understood by the masses.
I believe that war with Iran is imminent. Iran is about to be blown out of the water - as is indicated by recent US military buildup around the Gulf (and not just in Iraq). The Israeli affair in Syria (and I don't think it was about North Korea at all), recent statements by the French Foreign Minister, labeling the Quds force as terrorists, pressure on the security council, steady propaganda buildup in the US media, all seem to be building up to an attack. [Update: Obama's Zionist packed administration is unlikely to change this assessment].
It is imperative for Iran to be prepared. In an attack scenario, massive air-raids could take out everything they have, including much of their industrial base and civilian infrastructure. Iran could be bombed to the stone age, minus the oil related infrastructure. Just as the once modern and industrialized parts of Iraq now lie in ruin. But what does Iran have, that it can bank on for such a confrontation? Has it been preparing for this? Do they know what is headed their way? Unfortunately, despite the bluster from Ahmedinejad, Iran today does not have much that it can count on. Iran does have a military-industrial base, something few Muslim countries have. Yet their technology level is of the 1970s and years of incompetent policies has resulted in little improvement. Their military is unlikely to be more than a speed bump for kind of attack the US is planning.
The Iranians have repeatedly refused to upgrade their air defenses, insidious politics and the perception that their air force has been pro-Shah has meant their most valued military arm is no more than a stinted and emaciated old man. But even if they upgraded and mustered squadrons of Su-27 FLANKERS or S-300s, their defenses would eventually crumble against overwhelming odds. This simple military fact somehow never sunk in for the Iranians. They cannot fight a guerilla war to protect their society, infrastructure and industries. Conventional war is still an exclusive weapon of the West. The best thing they can do is to disassemble their nuclear installations and spread them into a million different locations, to salvage something of their nuclear technology. Investing in serious dispersed and layered SAM defenses may also be somewhat effective. Nothing can substitute a well-trained air force.
Iran has barely invested in upgrading any of its major weapons systems. They have wasted their time and energy in building outdated weapons and "national development projects" that today are obsolete and ineffective in a modern conventional war. Building copies of the F-5 will not do anything for Iran. It will at best mean US pilots have to spend an extra few days shooting them down. What a shame. Arrogance leading to blindlness, blindness to tragedy.
And yet with darkness there is always light; On the other side of the coin, Iran has played its political cards well with Syria and Hezbollah and also built a solid base in Iraq. It can win a guerilla war. But nobody ever wins a guerilla war, the price you pay is beyond estimation, beyond rationalization, beyond logic. Suffering that haunts for generations without end.
Yet, again, unity brings hope. One can go so far as to speculate and alliance with the Taliban as indicated by the latter's new Chinese weapons and IEDs. The Chinese are not supplying the Taliban, and Pakistan is also unlikely to do so. It seems clear that an uneasy but quickly solidifying alliance is forming between the unlikely - Iran and the Taliban. This is really the most significant event in recent history amongst Muslims. This could be the first time in a centuries that the Shias and the Sunnis are coming together (as they always should have) and fighting a united battle, globally. And herein lies that silver lining we have so earnestly searched for.
In the global war against Islam, after the fall of Iran, (and this I am assuming is a foregone conclusion), only one major Muslim country will be left that would still need to be reckoned with - Pakistan. Pakistan with the finest Muslim army in the contemporary world, with technology and tactics that are "good enough" to go toe-to-toe against a Western foe. Pakistan with its nuclear weapons, modern weapon systems ranging from cruise missiles to tanks and combat aircraft. Pakistan. The last hope.
And yet, today Pakistan is not yet ready to stand alone. Pakistan needs time, time to overcome its corrupt politicians and generals. Time for the Pakistani military-industrial projects to mature, which in a decade will become a bastion of self-reliance and strength. And thus we hope to buy time for Pakistan. And perhaps the fight for Iran, particularly if it gets bogged down, just might give Pakistan that needed time to prepare.
It has been most surprising to see that China has not played its hand yet. Yet, 2008 is a vital policy year for China, and it is likely that Chinese policies will change dramatically from 2009. A resurgent China will play a vital role for Pakistan against a common encircling. enemy. With the fall of Iran, China will lose its last bastion in the middle east and will effectively be in strategically unsound waters for Peak Oil. Perhaps China needs to start thinking globally. A minimalist, low key approach is not always the best choice. As in the game of chess, when the end game begins, the more aggressive player typically wins. And if China fails to radically shift its foreign policy, they will face defeat.
And thus, as we look at the wider picture, a picture not unlike the pre-WWII world, we seefailing markets and a global currency in crisis stretch diplomacy between the Great Nations. A world with powers vying for limited resources. We see that the world is moving back to a period not dissimilar to colonial times and this is becoming more of a war between the Third World and the First World, as much as it is a war between the West and Islam. Let us take pause and remember that it was not the Third World which freed itself. It was the battle to grab our resources within the First World that perchance resulted in our freedom, a freedom we have managed to lose since. And Japan was a rising power, a Third World nation that had forgotten its place not unlike China today. In a surpising twist of history, we owe our freedoms to these upstarts and today, any victory against the West has to include a clear strategy vis-a-vis China. Without China, no matter how hard we fight, we have lost the war before fighting it.
For our part, we must unite first, as one Muslim global community before we can look to anyone else. Only through unity can we even begin to have a chance. We have not been united or functional in a long time, but the present climate is forcing us to again become united. We then need a vision and a plan on what needs to be done.
If I were to paint a picture of what needs to be done in the Islamic world, it would be built around a revolution in thinking and in particular, Islamic Economics. The founding blocks of any military might is Economics. Terrorism can neither defend Islam nor defeat our enemies. Today our economic systems are badly made replicas of the West, and are highly ineffective. Our thinkers do not trust in themselves to build a better system and believe that a system built around such things as no interest amongst other Islamic salients, is impossible. However, it is possible and has already been worked on in great detail in the centers of Islamic learning around the world. This in the end, can be our only real weapon in defending ourselves, mundane Economics.
The second important aspect is to build a solid industrial base and an effective military-industrial complex. Pakistan, Malaysia and Iran are the only Muslim countries that have anything resembling an industrial base (Turkey never counts). Pakistan and Iran are the only countries that have effectively invested in building this into a military-industrial complex. Of them, Iran is more self-sufficient while being technologically outdated, and Pakistan is quite a bit more dependent on foreign suppliers while being a most remarkable model in terms of technological prowess and successful projects. The Al-Khalid Tank, the JF-17 fighter, cruise missiles are but a few examples of what Pakistan has achieved, far beyond the wildest dreams of the rest of the Muslim world. The JF-17 and the J-10, in the scenario that Pakistan is confronted by the West, would play a key role in providing credible defense against western air power. For the first time since Japan's Zero fighters, we as Asians have something to fight with.
Virtually every single weapon system Pakistan has developed is the first of its kind in the Muslim world, in terms of combat effectiveness and independence of production and supply. The JF-17 is the pinnacle of this. Weapon systems such as the JF-17, Al-Khalid and Babur amongst others have no equivalents in the Islamic world and remain but pipe dreams, if even that. These weapon systems and the extreme professionalism of the Pakistan military are what will (hopefully) differentiate Pakistan from Iraq and Iran. Nuclear weapons are unlikely to be of much use, given both sides will have these but is likely to keep India at bay.
Pakistan really is our last hope, and the last hope of the Islamic world. It is true that Pakistanis owe nothing to the Muslim world (as pro-Musharaf supporters like to point out), who have been a hindrance if anything and often supported their arch enemy, India. Yet, a time is coming when the rest of the Islamic world would gladly beg Pakistan to save the rest of us, and they will be the only ones to be able to do it. I know deep down that beyond Musharraf, most Pakistanis do not believe in a Pakistan-only-excluding-Islamic-world-centric doctrine.
Back in time, I personally supported Musharraf when he came to power and then opposed him when he let the Americans free access. In retrospect, while I still disagree with siding with the Americans, the last 7 years has given vital breathing space to buildup Pakistan, economically, industrially and militarily. The tradeoff in the real-politic is obviously Waziristan. Perhaps that tradeoff will now come back to change things the less pleasant way. This has been an era for Pakistan and now this era of supporting the US is in decline.
Times are changing, and neither Musharraf nor the old political elite can help. On the other hand it will serve no purpose to have a Taliban revolution that would put such matters into the hands of simple minded men. The best thing that could happen at this point in Pakistan is an internal coup by the army, led by someone like General Usmani. The "right time" for this will be in the immediate aftermath of the bombing-to-the-stone-age of Iran.
Moving on to Afghanistan, what will happen in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of Iran, is a huge movement combining for the first time, the Taliban and the Iranian Shiite movement. If such an alliance forms, this would unite the Islamic front for the first time in 1400 years. As I have noted earlier, there are already signs of such cooperation, including the Taliban's brand new Chinese weapons.
While I have attempted to talk of the immediate tactics to what is being presumed to happen very soon, I have left out the politico-spiritual aspect of it. This is as important, if not the most important part. Only through unity can we succeed against the present overwhelming odds. I believe the spiritual leadership of Islam resides no more within the Arab world or in the Ayatollahs of Iran, but rather they reside in the West. Men like Yusuf Islam and Yusuf Estes would befit the moral leadership of the Islamic world, far more than any Saudi sheikh or Iranian cleric would, and would be far more acceptable to the Islamic world, as a whole, and not divided in parts. They would also avoid a power struggle or a split. The men best suited to lead us against the West, and being reverts to Islam, really have the essence of what being a true Muslim means. I would dearly like to see a great migration of such men to the Muslim world.
Whether the coming war with Iran triggers this or some crazy terror attack, a migration of Muslims from the West back to their countries would be most helpful to the Muslim world. They would bring back key skills and knowledge that would help galvanize local economies. This has already happened to a great extent after 9/11. If you look at the 6 years after 9/11, Muslim countries with sizable immigrant populations abroad like Pakistan and Bangladesh have significantly benefited from inflows of migrants, investments and technical skills. This is both reflected in GDP growth rates in an otherwise anemic global economy, as well as in net investments and net exports. Islamabad and Dhaka (to name two) in 1997 and in 2007 are completely unrecognizable places, not completely unlike in their pace of growth to Beijing.
I personally hope that none of what I have guesstimated ever comes true, and I certainly also hope any of my readers don't get caught in it if it does happen. I am not a war-monger, and I don't think I ever want to do anything that will harm another human being, whether he or she be Muslim, Christian or Jewish. Yet in such times it would be a crime not to prepare. For we all hold the guilt of inactivity every time an Iraqi dies at some crazy US soldier's hands. For every Guantanamo Bay innocent prisoner. For every house gone to "collateral damage". For everything that you and I know, but do not want to recall, for the guilt in our hearts wants to forget.
http://www.grandestrategy.com/2007/0...future-of.html
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