Why there will never be a .400 hitter again in baseball . . .

[Shek]

Is it because the level of talent in baseball is higher or lower than it used to be?

[Mobbme]

Is it because the level of talent in baseball is higher or lower than it used to be?

Pitching techniques are more unique. Look what they did with Manny in the playoffs, they just walked him

[S2]

Huh?!

Who presumes this fact. As the ol' sales adage goes,"it only takes one."

While a batter now faces a bevy of specialists game-after-game through a long season, we've seen guys come close. What I can't remember is if that was in conjunction with pennant runs. Sharpens the focus of the hitter and fights the fatigue that comes with a 162 game season.

Going from 154 to 162 games hurt, no doubt. More at-bats in a long, hot summer. Still, we're close but need more bunters. Guys like Ichiro or Carew before them will be the one. Run, control the bat, know the strike-zone but can stay healthy.

Tougher to do than anything beside's Dimaggio's streak but both can be done. We just haven't seen the guy yet...but "it only takes one".

[gunnut]

Pitchers are way more specialized these days. You have your starter. Then middle releaf. A setup man, followed by the closer. It is conceivable that a hitter sees 4 pitchers during the course of a 9 inning game.

It used to be the guy finished the game even if he had to pitch 24 innings on 3 days rest. Now starters get 4 days rest and they work on the average of 6 innings.

[astralis]

shek,

i've seen this economic lesson somewhere

[Shek]

shek,

i've seen this economic lesson somewhere

I'm teaching it as part of my sports econ class, but the major insights are actually from an evolutionary biologist :)

DiMaggio's streak will also be part of the course - binomial probabilities :)

[Shek]

Look what they did with Manny in the playoffs, they just walked him

But walks don't count as at-bats.

[Shek]

This graphic has something to do with the explanation:



Anybody want to venture a guess at what statistic is being plotted?

[Albany Rifles]

This graphic has something to do with the explanation:



Anybody want to venture a guess at what statistic is being plotted?

Increase of ERA during the live ball era?

BTW, I didn't htink thsi was a quiz thread!:)

I don't see it happening...combination of increase in athleticism of fielders, situational pitching changes, etc.

And as for length of season...don't forget Teddy Ballgame was sitting on .3995 going into the last day of the season in 1941...a double header. He could ahve sat it out and gotten .400 by rounding up. Played both games and went 6 for 8, finishing .406.

[gunnut]

This graphic has something to do with the explanation:


Anybody want to venture a guess at what statistic is being plotted?

Number of home runs per at bat?

[Shek]

Increase of ERA during the live ball era?

ERA looks somewhat similar, but it's certainly not as dramatic as an increase in the 90s. Go fish :))

[Shek]

Number of home runs per at bat?

Go fish :))

[gunnut]

Go fish :))

The balls was juiced...I tells ya...

[Shek]

The balls was juiced...I tells ya...

The graph was a plot of the hit by pitch rate (per plate appearance). It does correlate fairly well with the home run rate (per plate appearance), but the relationship there isn't a strong causal one (i.e., there will be some additional HBP after a home run, but that's only a small explanation for HBP).



Instead, what you had in the 1990s was two separate expansions that diluted the talent pool. The marginal pitchers entering the league have less control (which is why they were only AAA players before) and so we should see more HBP. Additionally, stronger hitters, when facing these marginal pitchers, will hit better (both in terms of percentage and also in terms of slugging), and so we'd expect to see more home runs.

[gunnut]

The graph was a plot of the hit by pitch rate (per plate appearance). It does correlate fairly well with the home run rate (per plate appearance), but the relationship there isn't a strong causal one (i.e., there will be some additional HBP after a home run, but that's only a small explanation for HBP).

Instead, what you had in the 1990s was two separate expansions that diluted the talent pool. The marginal pitchers entering the league have less control (which is why they were only AAA players before) and so we should see more HBP. Additionally, stronger hitters, when facing these marginal pitchers, will hit better (both in terms of percentage and also in terms of slugging), and so we'd expect to see more home runs.

Hockey has the same problem with goalies. There are only so many starting goalies who can withstand the rigors of playing 60+ games a season and the mental toughness for it. That's why you see today more than half the teams have no clear cut #1 goalies. Kings went throught 7 goalies last season.

But the interesting thing is the offensive talent is also diluted. The defense stayed the the same (there's a saying in baseball, you can teach defense but offense is talent), some say got better. So the scoring is actually down.