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Shek
04 Dec 08,, 04:29
Wow! They've got calculators and quizzes for everything now!

http://www.divorce360.com/content/divorcecalculator.aspx


http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/assessing-your-divorce-risk/

What are the odds of your marriage ending in divorce?

This is a risk with some pretty important consequences, but chances are, you don’t have the foggiest idea on how to quantify it. Until now.

My favorite economist (and my significant other), Betsey Stevenson, has put together a neat online widget for the folks at Divorce360.com. The widget crunches recent marital history data to assess your chances of getting divorced, and it does this by taking account of some very simple demographics. Learn your divorce risk here.

It is hard to understate how big of a leap forward this calculator is. Those of us who are optimists may not want the facts — we just assume that the risk is zero. And those who want to be realists have probably learned that without usable data, being realistic isn’t easy. Perhaps the realists have a vague memory of reading that one in two marriages end in divorce. But this just isn’t true, even if it was true for my (divorced) parents’ generation.

And the national average just isn’t that informative anyway, as there is enormous variation in divorce risk across demographic groups. My graduate-school friends — say, male college grads who married in their early 30’s and have been married for five years — are in a demographic where only 5 percent have divorced so far, and perhaps another 7 percent may divorce in the next five years. By contrast, among male high-school grads who married in their early 20’s, around 19 percent divorced in the first five years of marriage, with another 37 percent likely to separate over the next five years.

The point is that factors like age at first marriage and education tell us a lot about divorce risk. Let’s not confuse correlation and causation though — these divorce risks are useful as statistical forecasts (even if they can’t answer the “what if” question) of how divorce risks change if you delay your marriage.

I’m interested in learning whether your divorce risk was higher or lower than you expected. What did you find?

More detail here; F.A.Q.’s are here. The academic research underpinning this widget is available here (and the aggregate trends are discussed here and here).

THL
04 Dec 08,, 04:48
I am at 11%. Wonder what percent Confed is at and if we are suppose to add our scores together or get an average of our two scores.:P

ArmchairGeneral
04 Dec 08,, 04:53
Dang. Now I want to get married so I can find out the probability of me getting a divorce. :biggrin:

sappersgt
04 Dec 08,, 04:54
Eight percent. Now just what do you suppose that means? Hmmm..:rolleyes::biggrin:

T_igger_cs_30
04 Dec 08,, 04:55
Dang. Now I want to get married so I can find out the probability of me getting a divorce. :biggrin:

Some people will do anything just to prove they are right:biggrin:

Southie
04 Dec 08,, 13:30
I'm at 43%...hmmm...:tongue:

My husband is 21% :rolleyes: Ironic that he is the one that said to me last year, while having a discussion about our marriage that he was going to wait until the kids were out of the house to ask for a divorce! :rolleyes:

bandwagon
04 Dec 08,, 16:00
It's crap. It just gives you an average figure for people of similar ages, years of marriage and background. This is only useful in making forecasts for a population. It says nothing about your divorce risk as an individual. They have confused correlation with causality. If age, years of marriage and college background actually were the major causes of marriage breakdown it would be a useful tool for an individual.

I've been married 23yrs. I rate my chance of getting divorced at 0% . The calculator tells me 17%: high risk.

sappersgt
04 Dec 08,, 19:17
If I plug in my FIRST marriage its 12% (versus 8%) with a 33% chance of later divorce (opposed to 2%). 45% sounds about right.:rolleyes:;)

Johnny W
04 Dec 08,, 23:02
They forgot one question. Is your significant other a psycho nutjob? If so, chance of divorce 50%, chance of you spending time in prison 25%, chance of dying in your sleep 25%. :)

sappersgt
04 Dec 08,, 23:42
They forgot one question. Is your significant other a psycho nutjob? If so, chance of divorce 50%, chance of you spending time in prison 25%, chance of dying in your sleep 25%. :)

So, you know my ex Seanathepsychobitch?;)

S2
04 Dec 08,, 23:51
"So, you know my ex Seanathepsychobitch?"

Maybe. Is this her?:))

xE7g2FGpOC0

sappersgt
05 Dec 08,, 00:05
"So, you know my ex Seanathepsychobitch?"[/B]
By S-2
Maybe. Is this her?:))

You know, there might be a resemblance. Is that "Play Misty for me?". Seriously, you make enemies in my line of work. One of them gave her a sum of money to offer me tickets to a function where they planned to "discuss things" with me.:mad::mad:

THL
05 Dec 08,, 01:00
while having a discussion about our marriage that he was going to wait until the kids were out of the house to ask for a divorce! :rolleyes:ROFL...ASK for a divorce!


All I know is that when I decided that my ex and I could not work anything out that "ASKING" was not how I put it!! ROFL


Ask...LoL

THL
05 Dec 08,, 01:02
If I plug in my FIRST marriage its 12% (versus 8%) with a 33% chance of later divorce (opposed to 2%). 45% sounds about right.:rolleyes:;)

Yeah...that is scary. Using information from my 1st marriage I get 12%. 11% with confed. Strange since I am adding an extra child and 10 years.:P

Roosveltrepub
05 Dec 08,, 01:02
100% and I have the paper to prove it

Southie
05 Dec 08,, 01:04
ROFL...ASK for a divorce!


All I know is that when I decided that my ex and I could not work anything out that "ASKING" was not how I put it!! ROFL


Ask...LoL

:redface: We're trying to work things out...but time will tell!

S2
05 Dec 08,, 01:06
"Is that 'Play Misty for me?'".

Yup. Helluva flick. Got my attention at an early age.

sappersgt
05 Dec 08,, 07:12
"Is that 'Play Misty for me?'".

Yup. Helluva flick. Got my attention at an early age.

I've used that movie to illustrate a point. Scary. In addition I liked Clint's XK120.:cool: