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  • Iran 'opens naval base' near Gulf

    Iran 'opens naval base' near Gulf

    Iran has opened new naval facilities east of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Gulf which is key to oil supplies, state media say.

    Naval chief Admiral Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying the base in the town of Jask would enable Iran to block the entry of an "enemy" into the Gulf.

    Iran has threatened to close the strait in response to a potential military strike over its nuclear activities.

    It denies claims by Western powers that it is seeking a nuclear bomb.

    Key 'chokepoint'

    "We are creating a new defence front in the region, thinking of a non-regional enemy," Adm Sayyari told state run Iranian radio.

    "In this region we are capable of preventing the entry of any kind of enemy into the strategic Persian Gulf if need be," he said.

    The Strait of Hormuz is "by far the world's most important chokepoint," according to the US government's Energy Information Administration.

    About 20% of oil traded worldwide passes through the narrow waterway, the body says.

    There has been speculation that the US or Israel might stage a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, in response to Iran's refusal to halt the enrichment of uranium, a process which can be used to make fuel for nuclear bombs.

    Tensions remain high, although many analysts believe an attack has become less likely in recent months.

    The base is in the port town of Jask, about 1,050 miles (1,700 kilometres) south of Tehran.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7694947.stm
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  • #2
    Foolish to think they can block the Straight. They must have some naval vessels they wont be needing ever again.;)

    Close the Straight? Close it with what?
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
      Foolish to think they can block the Straight. They must have some naval vessels they wont be needing ever again.;)

      Close the Straight? Close it with what?
      A bog-hammer blockade of course;).
      "Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves, therefore, are its only safe depositories." Thomas Jefferson

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
        Foolish to think they can block the Straight. They must have some naval vessels they wont be needing ever again.;)

        Close the Straight? Close it with what?
        Indeed, laughable to think they can blockade access with naval vessels, they'd be a sitting duck.

        But they could mine it enough to cause a massive spike in the price of oil lasting, at most, a few months.

        Here's an academic article on the subject I found interesting:
        Attached Files
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
          Indeed, laughable to think they can blockade access with naval vessels, they'd be a sitting duck.

          But they could mine it enough to cause a massive spike in the price of oil lasting, at most, a few months.

          Here's an academic article on the subject I found interesting:
          Correct Duke,
          However, with todays newer minesweeping technology the sweeping would much much more effecient and much faster.
          Plus, there are several countries whose oil imports pass through the Straight and IMO Iran wouldnt be able to weather them all. Plus, if they were to mine then so could the US and prevent Iran herself from importing her refined fuels. Tit for Tat if you would. Then the question becomes who can hold out longer. You have a US president on his way out but you also have a sitting Iranian president who seeks to keep his place.;)

          Opps left one one MAJOR factor, the Fifth Fleet lying close by.;)
          Last edited by Dreadnought; 28 Oct 08,, 21:54.
          Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
            Correct Duke,
            However, with todays newer minesweeping technology the sweeping would much much more effecient and much faster.
            Plus, there are several countries whose oil imports pass through the Straight and IMO Iran wouldnt be able to weather them all. Plus, if they were to mine then so could the US and prevent Iran herself from importing her refined fuels. Tit for Tat if you would. Then the question becomes who can hold out longer. You have a US president on his way out but you also have a sitting Iranian president who seeks to keep his place.;)

            Opps left one one MAJOR factor, the Fifth Fleet lying close by.;)
            This corroborates your point:
            Historically, Iran has recognized that closing the strait would be the military equivalent of cutting off its nose to spite its face. Not only would such a move deprive Iran of vital oil revenue, but it also would invite international intervention.
            But:
            If the United States or Israel attacked Iran, the restraint that previously characterized Iranian behavior in the strait might evaporate. Indeed, in 2006 Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cautioned that although Iran would not be “the initiator of war,” if the United States punished or attacked Iran, then “definitely the shipment of energy from this region will be seriously jeopardized.” 22 The Iranian oil minister made similar comments, hinting that “if the country’s interests are attacked, we will use all our capabilities, and oil is one of them.”23
            Minesweeping is a long and arduous process regardless. It's also important to keep in mind that Iran isn't always a rational actor, as shown in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

            Points from the article:
            In particular, Iran possesses a larger stockpile of missiles and mines ten times as powerful as those used in the tanker wars of the 1980s, the last period of sustained naval conflict in the gulf. If Iran managed to lay even a relatively small number of these mines in the strait, the United States certainly would act to clear the area. But the experience of past mine-warfare campaigns suggests that it could take many weeks, even months, to restore the full flow of commerce, and more time still for the oil markets to be convinced that stability had returned.
            Nevertheless, even small numbers of mines have been able to halt surface traffic when their presence was known. In 1972 the United States immediately stopped all traffic in and out of North Vietnam’s Haiphong Harbor with an initial drop of only 36 acoustic-magnetic mines. In 1991 the Iraqis were able to discourage a U.S. amphibious invasion by laying only 1,000 mines off the Kuwaiti coast, 2 of which later hit but did not sink U.S. warships.36 In 1950 the North Koreans delayed the U.S. landing at Wonsan by laying only 3,000 mines across 50 square miles. As these examples show, mines derive much of their power from the
            The potential for relatively small-scale minelaying operations to seriously disrupt the flow of oil and send energy prices skyrocketing is there, even if Iran lacks the capacity with which to blockade the strait.
            The general point is that it does not require great imagination to think Iran could lay several hundred mines in the gulf. If the above conditions prevailed, for example, Iran could lay a total of 693 mines. This is not an especially large number, but in such a contained area with such heavy commercial traffic, it would not take long for a tanker to encounter a mine. The effects of the MDM-6 mine on a tanker are unknown, but given that these mines have both more sophisticated detonation mechanisms and ten times the charge of the mines that hobbled tankers in the 1980s, the threat to tanker traffic cannot be dismissed easily. If shipping companies—and their insurers believed that large swaths of the channels and surrounding areas were definitely mined, and in some places with mines ten times as powerful as what was seen in the tankers wars, they likely would halt or reduce shipping.
            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
              Indeed, laughable to think they can blockade access with naval vessels, they'd be a sitting duck.

              But they could mine it enough to cause a massive spike in the price of oil lasting, at most, a few months.

              Here's an academic article on the subject I found interesting:
              That would be their only hope, because that base might as well translate to "big freakin' target for cruise missiles".

              And as you said, they'd be cutting off their noses to spite their (admittedly irrational) faces.
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                The potential for relatively small-scale minelaying operations to seriously disrupt the flow of oil and send energy prices skyrocketing is there, even if Iran lacks the capacity with which to blockade the strait.
                It's only fear. Within 24 hours, we can clear a path through any minefield. There will be bottlenecks but the ships will get through unscathed. Within 30 days, we would have cleared the field.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  It's only fear. Within 24 hours, we can clear a path through any minefield. There will be bottlenecks but the ships will get through unscathed. Within 30 days, we would have cleared the field.
                  I think that fear alone is still enough to cause a large spike in the price of oil over the course of a month or two. I suppose the US has contingencies on hand now, given the past.
                  "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                  • #10
                    Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz?

                    I am certain GWB is PRAYING for such a scenario!


                    John.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                      I think that fear alone is still enough to cause a large spike in the price of oil over the course of a month or two. I suppose the US has contingencies on hand now, given the past.
                      Yes they do, However Iran herself would be choked off from her refined fuels being able to enter her ports. Iran, Russia and Venezuala are all screaming right now at OPEC (minus Russia since she dont belong) Chavez has already announced his intentions to up the price of oil to save his sliding economy. Perhaps maybe he and Iran should have thought about this before they wanted all these expensive Russian arms to ward off the great satan.With the US seeking drilling off her own shores and the flexability of the US peoples fuel saving abilities will surely not help their current situation and thus put out another fire before it starts or at minimum prolong their sliding economies.
                      Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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                      • #12
                        They can sink old tubs and that will be what they can alone do!

                        Will be effective. Maybe some naval officers can correct me since I have no idea of the depth etc.


                        "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

                        I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

                        HAKUNA MATATA

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ray View Post
                          They can sink old tubs and that will be what they can alone do!

                          Will be effective. Maybe some naval officers can correct me since I have no idea of the depth etc.
                          Sir, But to do that in international waters (beyond Irans 12 mile limit) could easily be construed as an open act of war against the international communities economy. And the powers that be may choose the military option this time instead of the sanctions as the last few times . I dont think Iran wants those troubles especially when she can be denied her refined imports as well (And her nuclear program if those powers wish to do so in one fail swoop). As mentioned before in this thread you have a US president on his final days in office and you have an Iranian president that wishes to be re-elected. "W" has zero to loose however Achmadinajad has plenty to loose.
                          Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ozjohn39 View Post
                            Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz?

                            I am certain GWB is PRAYING for such a scenario!


                            John.


                            I think John Mccain would like such a scenario more.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Johnny W View Post
                              I think John Mccain would like such a scenario more.
                              probably true
                              but back to iran

                              The mere thought of a single mine hitting a stocked oil tanker and creating its own spot of hell would be enough to stop oil supply passing through the strait.
                              Although these mines could be cleared within 24 hours the thought will still stop tankers until every inch is swept which could take days.

                              anyway how would you know mines are deployed unless Iran announces it? seeing a tanker go in millions of dollars worth of fire ball will be a massive deterrent to commercial traffic.
                              There is no such thing as free lunch

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