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Bettors give McCain bid increasingly long odds

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  • Bettors give McCain bid increasingly long odds

    I'm hoping for a turnaround that sees McCain clinch an upset victory. But things are looking increasingly grim. :(
    Bettors give McCain bid increasingly long odds

    Futures traders and sports books are setting overwhelming odds that the Illinois Democrat will win the presidency on Nov. 4.

    Ladbrokes, a massive online sports book based in the United Kingdom, puts the odds of an Obama win at 1-10, meaning a bettor must risk $10 to win one more. John McCain, meanwhile, is an 11-2 shot, so a dollar posted on him would pay out an additional $5.50. The site now pays out less for a bet on Obama winning in a 370-plus electoral landslide than it does for a McCain victory of any margin.

    Other books give the Arizona senator more favorable odds — Sportsbook.com has McCain at 4-to-1 — but across the board a bet for the Republican now pays off more than it has at any point during the general election, as bettors have soured on his prospects.

    Paddy Power, Ireland's largest bookmaker, no longer gives McCain any chance at all, having called the election for Obama on Oct. 15 and paid out over a million pounds on bets for the Democrat, whose line had moved from 50-1 in May of 2005 to 1-9 when the book closed.

    The wide spread between books — whose odds aren't intended to be predictive, but to split the action such that the house comes out ahead no matter who wins — stems from the relatively small size of the betting pool, which means they may not accurately represent expectations among the non-betting public.

    Futures markets, in which buyers and sellers negotiate a price for a contract that pays off if a postulated event in fact occurs, are also down on McCain. An option that pays $1 should McCain win now sells for just 14 cents at Dublin-based futures market Intrade and 13 cents on the Iowa Electronic Market. Both prices are record lows.

    Shortly after the Republican National Convention, McCain was a slight favorite in several markets, with a $1 option going for 54 cents on Intrade, and Ladbrokes giving the Republican 5-4 odds.

    While polls show a snapshot in time of who voters want to win, betting lines and futures trades show who bettors think will win. The good news for McCain is that the gamblers have not always been right.

    Just before the New Hampshire primary, Ladbrokes listed Obama as a prohibitive 1-33 shot to win, but he ended up losing that contest to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    Intrade CEO John Delaney concedes that the predictive value of his market has been "mixed" so far this year. "They were sometimes wrong during the primaries, but often showed better clarity than the polls," he said.

    Trading volume on the site averages 10,000 trades a day of $1 million worth of presidential futures, up over 700 percent from 2004.
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14943.html
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  • #2
    I am not a betting man.

    Somehow, I feel that McCain will win.

    Bradley effect.


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

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    • #3
      Sixth sense Sir,
      for some reason i have started to get that feeling too.

      What effect is that?

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Yusuf View Post
        Sixth sense Sir,
        for some reason i have started to get that feeling too.

        What effect is that?
        The common sense effect
        sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

        Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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        • #5
          I have already given up hope of a McCain victory. The best we can hope for is that Congress and the Senate can prevent Obama from getting too out of hand.

          My biggest fear is who Obama will appoint to the USSC

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ChrisF202 View Post
            My biggest fear is who Obama will appoint to the USSC
            Why is that a fear?

            Comment


            • #7
              Ussc

              Five of the USSC - United States Supreme Court Justices are over 70 years old and may retire during the next President's four year tenure. Based on Obama's campaign rhetoric and liberal voting record on issues, it would seem likely that he would appoint judges that have similar philosophies to him enabling a significant shift in the court. Changes from Gun Laws to Abortion would most likely occur based on Obama's opinion on those issues. America would then have a Democratic led Congress, Senate, Presidency and Supreme Court.
              sigpic "We are the people our parents warned us about." Jimmy Buffet

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