Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

'Russian Military Alliance With Iran Improbable Due To Diverging Interests'

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 'Russian Military Alliance With Iran Improbable Due To Diverging Interests'

    Russian Military Alliance With Iran Improbable Due To Diverging Interests
    September 16, 2008
    By Hossein Aryan

    The Georgia crisis and the U.S. deal with Poland to locate part of its missile-defense system on Polish soil have revived a Cold War mentality among some observers in both Russia and the West. Even though Russian and U.S. officials have denied any intention of starting another Cold War, some analysts are already predicting a new polarization of the world.

    One such analyst is Rajab Safarov, director of the Center for Contemporary Iranian Studies in Moscow. Two weeks ago, he published an article in the Russian pro-government newspaper "Vremya novostei" setting out some ideas that, if implemented, would dramatically change the geopolitical and geoeconomic balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.

    Safarov argued that Russia has a multitude of means to counter the pressure Western countries are exerting on it since its military operation in Georgia. Russia, he added, should rely on those countries, including Syria and Cuba, that effectively oppose the expansion of the United States and its satellites. "Moscow should strengthen its military-technical ties with Syria and start negotiations on the reestablishment of its military presence in Cuba," he argued.

    However, Safarov went on to say that none of these measures would prove more effective than would forming a political-military alliance with Iran, which "could change the entire geopolitical picture of the contemporary world." Such an alliance, he argued, could lead to the establishment of at least two military bases on Iranian soil, one in the north of the country in the province of East Azerbaijan, and the other on the 130-kilometer-long island of Qeshm, strategically located in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Safarov noted that a military base in northern Iran would provide Moscow with the opportunity to monitor "military activities in the Azerbaijan Republic, Georgia and Turkey, and share this information with Iran," while the one on Qeshm Island would allow Russia to "monitor the activities of the United States and NATO in the Persian Gulf...and stop suspicious ships and inspect their cargo, which the Americans have been cynically doing in that region for many decades."

    In exchange for the establishment of its military bases, Moscow could provide Iran with modern air-defense and missile-defense systems, as well as the advanced S-400 Triumf (SA-21, NATO codename Growler) surface-to-air missile system with a range of up to 400 kilometers.

    Safarov further proposed that, in order to cement the strategic alliance with Iran, Moscow should increase cooperation with Tehran in all spheres, including nuclear energy, and that the two countries, which between them possess 60 percent of the world's proven natural-gas reserves, should form a gas cartel similar to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). "Even small-scale coordination in terms of a single pricing policy," he pointed out, could force half of the world, or at least all of Europe, "to moderate its ambitions and treat gas exporters in a friendlier manner."

    Moscow should also, according to Safarov, pave the way for Iran to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In addition to placing "Iran under the collective umbrella of the SCO, including under the protection of such nuclear states as Russia and China," this would pave the way for the establishment of the "powerful Russia-Iran-China axis" that the United States and its allies fear so much.

    Divergence Of Fundamental Interests

    To date, there is no indication that Moscow is moving in the direction that Safarov advocates. It is possible that he is putting out feelers to test the reaction of the Russian and Iranian elites, as well as those in the West, about such a sea change in the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond. So far, there has been no reaction on the part of either Iranian or Russian officials.

    However, there is no tangible sign that the world is moving toward a new ideologically-based Cold War in the era of globalization that has gained considerable momentum in the last decade or so. Even China, its socialist political system notwithstanding, has made substantial progress towards liberalizing its economy. For Russia to adopt the confrontational policy vis-a-vis the West outlined by Safarov, it would have to reverse the process of its integration with the world economy. Therefore, it is unlikely that a new Cold War is imminent.

    The idea of a political-military alliance, as floated by Safarov, seems equally unlikely to come to fruition given the divergence of geopolitical and economic interests between the two countries. Iran aspires to be a dominant force in the Persian Gulf region, indeed, some Iranian officials claim it is one already. Article 146 of the Iranian Constitution forbids the establishment of any foreign military base in the country, even for peaceful purposes. Besides, permitting Russia to establish military bases in Iran in exchange for protecting Iran against likely attacks by the United States, Israel, or any other country would be a blatant strategic error and would reduce the country to a protectorate of Russia.

    Moreover, there is an unwritten law in Iran that denies any official the right even to float the idea of a foreign military presence in Iran. Even Mohammad Reza Shah, in spite of signing a number of military agreements with the United States, would not consider the establishment of a U.S. military base on Iranian soil.

    The notion of Iran allowing Russia to establish a military presence on its territory -- especially in Iranian Azerbaijan, where the Soviet Union, backing the Azerbaijani Democratic Party, set up a client state in the northwestern part of Iran in 1945 -- flies in the face of historical experience. As well as setting a landmark in the early stages of the Cold War, this left an indelible mark on the Iranian national psyche.

    From an economic viewpoint, any form of military alliance with Russia would not simply undermine Iran's independence and sovereignty, but also deprive the country of access to Western technology, investment, and markets. By contrast, it has long been official Iranian policy to look east, particularly to India and China, for diversifying its strategic alliances. Even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on occasions, endorsed such a policy.

    Establishing a Russian naval base on Qeshm Island would satisfy the long-standing desire of Russia since Peter the Great to gain access to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. But strategically, a Russian military base on the shores of the Persian Gulf would contradict Iran's long-standing goal of establishing itself as the major power in the region. Iran vehemently opposes the presence of any foreign naval presence in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman and looks back with regret to the era of U.S. "Twin Pillar" policy, when the United States had an over-the-horizon naval presence in the region.

    The notion of a Russian security umbrella over Iran is like the Sword of Damocles. As well as providing security, it could also increase the possibility of an attack, even a nuclear one. Iran's current so-called strategic alliance with Russia is a marriage of convenience. In light of the isolation that has resulted primarily from its contested nuclear program, Iran needs Russia.

    At the same time, it is fully aware that in the final analysis, in spite of overtures and apparent opposition to punitive sanctions on Iran, Moscow endorsed the last three Security Council resolutions against Tehran. Russia did so because it is in its interests to ensure that Iran does not gain access to nuclear weapons. The delay under various pretexts in completing the construction of the Bushehr power plant is another example of Russia's wavering commitment to Iran. As the conservative Iranian daily "Jomhuri-yi Islami" wrote in an editorial on March 12, 2007, "Russia is not a reliable partner for our nuclear activity."

    At a time when Western countries are trying to rally world opinion against Russian aggression in Georgia and its other imputed territorial ambitions, Iran could become a credible, if unexpected ally. However, history bears witness that ever since the mid-18th century, Russia has sought to exploit Iran's weaknesses. It will therefore take a fundamental change in Moscow's approach to alter Iranian perceptions of Russia's motives.

    [Russian Military Alliance With Iran Improbable Due To Diverging Interests] - [Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty © 2008]

  • #2
    I think the article needs an edit instead of "could provide" it should read "has provided";)
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

    Comment


    • #3
      The problem with Iran from a Russian point of view is it might be both beneficial to keep things as they are today or support some sort of destabilization and break-up of Iran. Both are economically and politically convenient.

      Keeping things in status quo a monopolized market for weaponry with no external support other than Russia and to a lesser degree China. The possibility of transiting Iranian gas through Russian pipelines controlled in central asia is very very appealing.

      The break-up of Iran allows others to intrude on that market and the ability to create alternative pipeline routes gas market competition. Competition on weapons market to the broken up pieces or the vicinity. However... Russia would earn a tremendous amount of leverage by proximity, ability to buy interests in fields. Supply of both parties of engagement Kurds/Azeris/Persians and the ability to expand leverage on a smaller country. Furthermore a break-up of Iran could lead to a destabilization of Turkey with Kurds becoming a third force and a rationalization of regional power between 3 or 4 power blocks if Arabs are included once Iraq/Syria destabilize. This would increase dependency further.

      The risk in outcome and other factors make Russia somewhat indifferent between the status quo and the support of break-up by the west. Since Iran is profitable right now with weapons sales etc. However once they run out of money ergo oil falls low enough it might be better to make Iran weaker.

      Then lots of countries emerge that could be profitable all at a state of quasi-war with each other after the initial conflict cools down.
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by cyppok View Post
        The risk in outcome and other factors make Russia somewhat indifferent between the status quo and the support of break-up by the west. Since Iran is profitable right now with weapons sales etc. However once they run out of money ergo oil falls low enough it might be better to make Iran weaker.
        russia's relationship with Iran will not be purely money-based.. The straits of hormuz are strategic, besides if Russia is resolute in its intent to revive the cold war- they will need a strong middle-east ally to counter US bases in the region.. setting aside their differences to counter a common foe would be in the best interest of both

        Money would be the least of Russia's concern..they're making plenty selling energy to Europe.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Mercenary View Post
          russia's relationship with Iran will not be purely money-based.. The straits of hormuz are strategic, besides if Russia is resolute in its intent to revive the cold war- they will need a strong middle-east ally to counter US bases in the region.. setting aside their differences to counter a common foe would be in the best interest of both

          Money would be the least of Russia's concern..they're making plenty selling energy to Europe.
          A few smaller dependent allies are more loyal than a bigger independent ally.
          Russia's goal is strategic leverage in the region war is not necessary for it to achieve this. The U.S. will become more pragmatic, by necessity of life and direct confrontation will not be necessary. (Russia doesn't want a cold war)

          Life is about living for that you need economic well being with price of oil going down other industries have to excel. Russia has a chance to expand both agrarian production and military production if there is a consistent demand near by. Control of resources never hurts.

          Middle-east allies from Russian perspective are unreliable.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

          Comment


          • #6
            Didn't I read somewhere about Russian bases being considered in Syria? Certainly Russia has been supplying Iran with nuclear fuel - why would they do this if they realy considered Iran "unreliable"?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by snapper View Post
              Didn't I read somewhere about Russian bases being considered in Syria? Certainly Russia has been supplying Iran with nuclear fuel - why would they do this if they realy considered Iran "unreliable"?
              smokescreen.;)
              Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

              Comment


              • #8
                As the article also states Iran won't let Russian bases on it soil easily. You shall not compare Iran to Armenia or Turkic Republics she is much more powerful than them via vis Russia. Only way I see it possible is somehow Russia becoming a superpower again and forcing its will on Iran.

                The break-up of Iran allows others to intrude on that market and the ability to create alternative pipeline routes gas market competition. Competition on weapons market to the broken up pieces or the vicinity. However... Russia would earn a tremendous amount of leverage by proximity, ability to buy interests in fields. Supply of both parties of engagement Kurds/Azeris/Persians and the ability to expand leverage on a smaller country. Furthermore a break-up of Iran could lead to a destabilization of Turkey with Kurds becoming a third force and a rationalization of regional power between 3 or 4 power blocks if Arabs are included once Iraq/Syria destabilize
                Iran does not show any signs of destabilisation.The azeris are very well absorbed by the mainstream population and had a shared history of nearly a millenia in addition to a shared religion (both are shia). Kurds may be provoked by the recent situation in Iraq and American support but to prevail they must fight against both Iran and Turkey. How will they manage to defeat two most powerful nations of the region?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by snapper View Post
                  Didn't I read somewhere about Russian bases being considered in Syria? Certainly Russia has been supplying Iran with nuclear fuel - why would they do this if they realy considered Iran "unreliable"?
                  http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...258131,00.html
                  They had a base there before the collapse I think. story 2006

                  Russia seeks stronger ties with Syria through naval base | Middle East | Jerusalem Post
                  update 2008

                  Iran does not show any signs of destabilisation.The azeris are very well absorbed by the mainstream population and had a shared history of nearly a millenia in addition to a shared religion (both are shia). Kurds may be provoked by the recent situation in Iraq and American support but to prevail they must fight against both Iran and Turkey. How will they manage to defeat two most powerful nations of the region?
                  Defeat? There are several thoughts 1 re-align Syria to prop-up Kurdish interests through its' territory since they have the least exposure they might do it considering water tensions with Turkey. 2 Iran will destabilize by itself once oil revenues fall the society will get pissed due to lack of everything. 3. It would be very easy for Russia/US to destabilize Iran delay shipments of grain to them and ask their allies to do the same and Iran would have a revolution. Famine is the fastest way to destabilize a country.
                  Iran Focus - Iran reluctant U.S. wheat buyer amid nuclear tension
                  In addition to 1 million tons of U.S. wheat, Iran is believed to have purchased 1.5 million tons of Canadian wheat, 1.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat and 1 million tons of European wheat, traders said.
                  I am sort of against the Russian naval base in Syria prior to it settling peace with Israel but the chance of status quo changing is very low.

                  Turkey is far more stable then Iran in my view and the likelihood of the insurgency gaining there is lower but you have to admit if Kurds are supported openly by U.S. and covertly by Russia through Syriah/Armenia. Isn't that the best of both worlds (I am not saying its happening now just could and probably will)

                  With the Azeris they are both a different ethnic and a separate language group from the Iranians granted the religion is the same but that is generally not as binding as the two prior elements. Yes they are integrated into the society but when things go down (economically) and people get nationalistic the minority issue comes into play.
                  Last edited by cyppok; 19 Sep 08,, 04:42.
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Russia defied the United States yesterday by announcing plans to sell military hardware to Iran and Venezuela.

                    The head of the state arms exporter said that he was negotiating to sell antiaircraft systems to Iran despite American objections. Russia has already delivered 29 Tor-M1 missile systems under a $700 million (£386 million) deal with Iran in 2005.

                    “Contacts between our countries are continuing and we do not see any reason to suspend them,” Anatoli Isaikin, the general director of Rosoboronexport, told the RIA-Novosti news agency at an arms fair in South Africa.

                    Reports have circulated for some time that the Kremlin is preparing to sell its S300 surface-to-air missile system to Iran, offering greater protection against a possible US or Israeli attack on the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities. The missiles have a range of more than 90 miles (150km).

                    Related Links
                    Iran a distraction but Palestinian pact is vital
                    Medvedev makes Russia Arctic annexation threat
                    Putin set to bait US with nuclear aid for Tehran
                    Sergei Chemezov, the head of the state-owned Russian Technologies, also disclosed that Venezuela’s leader, Hugo Chávez, wanted to buy antiaircraft systems, armoured personnel carriers, and SU35 fighter jets when they come into production in 2010.

                    The Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Sechin, one of the closest allies of Mr Putin, the Prime Minister, visited Venezuela and Cuba this week. Kommersant, the financial newspaper, said that Russia was forming “alliance relations” with the two antiAmerican regimes as a response to US involvement in former Soviet republics.

                    The Russian moves mark a serious deterioration in relations between Washington and Moscow. Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, threated to block Russia’s membership of key international organisations. She told the Kremlin that its “authoritarian policies” could prevent it from joining the World Trade Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which coordinates economic policies among industrialised countries. In an outspoken speech to the German Marshall Fund, an institution promoting greater cooperation between America and Europe, Dr Rice said: “The picture emerging is of a Russia increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad.

                    “Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organisation is now in question. And so too is its attempt to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.”

                    She added: “Russia’s international standing is worse now than at any time since 1991.”

                    The WTO is due to meet in Geneva on Thursday to discuss Russia’s bid to join the global trade body, a process that began in 1993, soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

                    Dr Rice said that Russia’s actions in Georgia fitted into a “worsening pattern of behaviour”, which included its “intimidation of its sovereign neighbours, its use of oil and gas as a political weapon, its threat to target peaceful nations with nuclear weapons, its arms sales to states and groups that threaten international security and its persecution – and worse – of Russian journalists and dissidents.”

                    She repeated the US commitment to put forward a $1 billion economic support package for Georgia. The European Union has already pledged $500 million.

                    At the heart of the dispute between the two former Cold War adversaries is Moscow’s insistence that America and its Nato allies are interfering in Russia’s “near abroad” and threatening its interests. The Kremlin is furious about plans to site an antimissile shield in Eastern Europe. The interceptors are designed to stop ballistic missile attacks from Iran but Russia believes the system in Poland and the Czech Republic is aimed at weakening its military capability.

                    Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, said that it was logical to conclude a lucrative contract with Iran “in the current situation, when the US and the West in general are stubbornly gearing toward a confrontation with Russia”.


                    Russia ratchets up US tensions with arms sales to Iran and Venezuela - Times Online

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      Russia defied the United States yesterday by announcing plans to sell military hardware to Iran and Venezuela.

                      The head of the state arms exporter said that he was negotiating to sell antiaircraft systems to Iran despite American objections. Russia has already delivered 29 Tor-M1 missile systems under a $700 million (£386 million) deal with Iran in 2005.

                      “Contacts between our countries are continuing and we do not see any reason to suspend them,” Anatoli Isaikin, the general director of Rosoboronexport, told the RIA-Novosti news agency at an arms fair in South Africa.

                      Reports have circulated for some time that the Kremlin is preparing to sell its S300 surface-to-air missile system to Iran, offering greater protection against a possible US or Israeli attack on the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities. The missiles have a range of more than 90 miles (150km).

                      Related Links
                      Iran a distraction but Palestinian pact is vital
                      Medvedev makes Russia Arctic annexation threat
                      Putin set to bait US with nuclear aid for Tehran
                      Sergei Chemezov, the head of the state-owned Russian Technologies, also disclosed that Venezuela’s leader, Hugo Chávez, wanted to buy antiaircraft systems, armoured personnel carriers, and SU35 fighter jets when they come into production in 2010.

                      The Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Sechin, one of the closest allies of Mr Putin, the Prime Minister, visited Venezuela and Cuba this week. Kommersant, the financial newspaper, said that Russia was forming “alliance relations” with the two antiAmerican regimes as a response to US involvement in former Soviet republics.

                      The Russian moves mark a serious deterioration in relations between Washington and Moscow. Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, threated to block Russia’s membership of key international organisations. She told the Kremlin that its “authoritarian policies” could prevent it from joining the World Trade Organisation and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which coordinates economic policies among industrialised countries. In an outspoken speech to the German Marshall Fund, an institution promoting greater cooperation between America and Europe, Dr Rice said: “The picture emerging is of a Russia increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad.

                      “Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organisation is now in question. And so too is its attempt to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.”

                      She added: “Russia’s international standing is worse now than at any time since 1991.”

                      The WTO is due to meet in Geneva on Thursday to discuss Russia’s bid to join the global trade body, a process that began in 1993, soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

                      Dr Rice said that Russia’s actions in Georgia fitted into a “worsening pattern of behaviour”, which included its “intimidation of its sovereign neighbours, its use of oil and gas as a political weapon, its threat to target peaceful nations with nuclear weapons, its arms sales to states and groups that threaten international security and its persecution – and worse – of Russian journalists and dissidents.”

                      She repeated the US commitment to put forward a $1 billion economic support package for Georgia. The European Union has already pledged $500 million.

                      At the heart of the dispute between the two former Cold War adversaries is Moscow’s insistence that America and its Nato allies are interfering in Russia’s “near abroad” and threatening its interests. The Kremlin is furious about plans to site an antimissile shield in Eastern Europe. The interceptors are designed to stop ballistic missile attacks from Iran but Russia believes the system in Poland and the Czech Republic is aimed at weakening its military capability.

                      Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, said that it was logical to conclude a lucrative contract with Iran “in the current situation, when the US and the West in general are stubbornly gearing toward a confrontation with Russia”.


                      Russia ratchets up US tensions with arms sales to Iran and Venezuela - Times Online
                      Snapper, They have been doing this behind the lines since the very beginning of the WOT. This is old news if you would.;)
                      Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Well this I'm vaguely aware of - however they are now being brazen about it and that should be a cause for concern, no? The Bear is roaring, it's old paranoias returning, this is just another indication.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          lol @ Iran braking up...

                          Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                          With the Azeris they are both a different ethnic and a separate language group from the Iranians granted the religion is the same but that is generally not as binding as the two prior elements. Yes they are integrated into the society but when things go down (economically) and people get nationalistic the minority issue comes into play.
                          Im afraid you have no idea what you're talking about. What do you know about Iran or Azeris? Probably nothing. Have you ever lived in Iranian Azerbaijan to know the people and society there? Have you even been to Tehran or anywhere else in Iran? Seriously, have you? What do you know about Iranians and what makes you think that you are an expert on Iranian society and the Iranian nation? My suspicion is that all you think you know about Iran comes from the internet, and, nothing else.

                          My advice to you is to go and live in Tabriz for a year or two, then spend another year in Kermanshah, then Iranian Kordestan, then another in Tehran, then Shiraz, then Esfahan etc etc. And then, and only then, give an opinion about Iranian society and what it means to be an Iranian. Or you could just marry yourself to a nice Iranian Azeri and move permanently to Iranian Azerbaijan. If you do that, your theories of how Iran can be 'disintegrated' might carry just a little credibility. But until such time, consider Iranian Azerbaijan splitting off from Iran as likely as New York splitting away from the United States, and any suggestion of that happening just as absurd as an independent New York.

                          Anyway, if you want to see how ethnic and cultural minorities fit into the larger Iranian nation then look no further than Iran's armed forces. From a recent military parade in Iran:

                          1 & 2 - Arabs
                          3 to 5 - Turkmen
                          Attached Files

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            1 - Bakhtiari
                            2 - Kurds
                            3 & 4 - Lors
                            5 - Baluchis
                            Attached Files

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              1 & 2 - Africans
                              3 - Image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - 'Supreme Leader' of Iran and an ethnic Azeri
                              4 - Iranian soldiers from Tabriz (Iranian Azerbaijan)
                              Attached Files

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X