Theoretically the best way of dealing with Iran is to ferment the fracture from within. That means leaving it alone, in way of direct military confrontation.
Maybe interesting in the end
The following steps are critical.
1*) Azerbaijan and Armenia have to resolve their situation and accept a peace agreement that would suit both parties, ergo neither is happy but willing to live and let live. This is the hardest thing at this point but once achieved the other steps will be easier. (otherwise focus from this conflict will prevent the building of next steps)
2) Create cultural institutions that would push language to the forefront of the agenda and appeal to Iranian Azerbaijanis ergo create/streamline institutions that would filter the middle class of Iranian Az through Azerbaijan's institutions. (model it on other countries successful language programs with same language nations (like Francophone exchanges etc) whereby students from Iranian Az go to Az and are subsidized and vice versa. I am sure its happening now but not on a volume thats necessary.)
3) Ferment either democratic or economic [not both] development in Azerbaijan that would create trade gravity with the bordering Iranian provinces posing a higher standard of living and economic ties. A free trade zone with Iran or something which would tie the people closer if disrupted. (steps 2-4 should take 3+ years or less if several catalysts occur)
4) Simultaneously there must be support for the Kurds/Arabs in Iran to integrate with Kurdish/Arabic community in Iraq this is somewhat tougher but once social dialog is established by creating a link from leaders of ones to leaders of the others and growing across the chain of command it will be easier and faster.
5) Catalyst(s), once oil and gas revenues collapse during worldwide economic slowdown the ties that are created above will allow greater economic mobility and survivability of those stratas which integrated with the neighboring regions. As always the center will try to either re-distribute or tax its options thus alienating the outer areas until rebellion or long-term hostility. The most important people to target for cross-border-societal-integration by the Azeris, Kurds, and Arabs are the military personnel, and/or children of military personnel and of course the respective leaders of those regions local areas.
6) The most important thing is a co-ordinated movement of all three parties during the upheaval and creating a structural rift in the Iranian society/state.
This could be achieved by fermenting Persian nationalism. (hard to achieve)
Hard intrinsic economic shocks (very doable) Drought stricken, Iran buys US wheat for first time in 27 years
Ahem if their drought continues for the next few years we must maximize their dependence on our supply. Most importantly Russia must be on our side
hence the * on 1) because they keep a base in Armenia with at least 5k+ troops for the deterant to Turkey etc... But the real reason is they are the closest wheat producer to Iran whom would be able to supply it other than us. Iran buying wheat from the U.S. because it can't wait means its desperate right now but if we make it dependent and the droughts continue eventually the shortfall will outstrip our ability to make it up or the ships will be held (Like in the "Merchants of Grain" if anyone read that book, grain was used as a weapon) Buying Russian support would be easy, giving up Nato support to Ukraine and a few oil field contracts in Iraq. A smaller Iran would also be in Russian interests as an easier country to deal with afterwards.
The most important thing out of all this if Iran lost all those territories with Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris on its western side would be. Its nuclear prolifiration would be hampered. Further support for Hezbullah etc would diminish. It would have to develop new oil/gas resources to make up for lost oilfields in lost territories whereby more might be shipped to market and reduce prices further.
Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Iran newspaper cockroach cartoon controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Today.Az - Iran links Azeri riots in Tabriz to Ahwaz intifada
Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Kurds fight for freedom on Iran-Iraq border - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Maybe interesting in the end
The following steps are critical.
1*) Azerbaijan and Armenia have to resolve their situation and accept a peace agreement that would suit both parties, ergo neither is happy but willing to live and let live. This is the hardest thing at this point but once achieved the other steps will be easier. (otherwise focus from this conflict will prevent the building of next steps)
2) Create cultural institutions that would push language to the forefront of the agenda and appeal to Iranian Azerbaijanis ergo create/streamline institutions that would filter the middle class of Iranian Az through Azerbaijan's institutions. (model it on other countries successful language programs with same language nations (like Francophone exchanges etc) whereby students from Iranian Az go to Az and are subsidized and vice versa. I am sure its happening now but not on a volume thats necessary.)
3) Ferment either democratic or economic [not both] development in Azerbaijan that would create trade gravity with the bordering Iranian provinces posing a higher standard of living and economic ties. A free trade zone with Iran or something which would tie the people closer if disrupted. (steps 2-4 should take 3+ years or less if several catalysts occur)
4) Simultaneously there must be support for the Kurds/Arabs in Iran to integrate with Kurdish/Arabic community in Iraq this is somewhat tougher but once social dialog is established by creating a link from leaders of ones to leaders of the others and growing across the chain of command it will be easier and faster.
5) Catalyst(s), once oil and gas revenues collapse during worldwide economic slowdown the ties that are created above will allow greater economic mobility and survivability of those stratas which integrated with the neighboring regions. As always the center will try to either re-distribute or tax its options thus alienating the outer areas until rebellion or long-term hostility. The most important people to target for cross-border-societal-integration by the Azeris, Kurds, and Arabs are the military personnel, and/or children of military personnel and of course the respective leaders of those regions local areas.
6) The most important thing is a co-ordinated movement of all three parties during the upheaval and creating a structural rift in the Iranian society/state.
This could be achieved by fermenting Persian nationalism. (hard to achieve)
Hard intrinsic economic shocks (very doable) Drought stricken, Iran buys US wheat for first time in 27 years
Ahem if their drought continues for the next few years we must maximize their dependence on our supply. Most importantly Russia must be on our side
hence the * on 1) because they keep a base in Armenia with at least 5k+ troops for the deterant to Turkey etc... But the real reason is they are the closest wheat producer to Iran whom would be able to supply it other than us. Iran buying wheat from the U.S. because it can't wait means its desperate right now but if we make it dependent and the droughts continue eventually the shortfall will outstrip our ability to make it up or the ships will be held (Like in the "Merchants of Grain" if anyone read that book, grain was used as a weapon) Buying Russian support would be easy, giving up Nato support to Ukraine and a few oil field contracts in Iraq. A smaller Iran would also be in Russian interests as an easier country to deal with afterwards.
The most important thing out of all this if Iran lost all those territories with Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris on its western side would be. Its nuclear prolifiration would be hampered. Further support for Hezbullah etc would diminish. It would have to develop new oil/gas resources to make up for lost oilfields in lost territories whereby more might be shipped to market and reduce prices further.
Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Iran newspaper cockroach cartoon controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Today.Az - Iran links Azeri riots in Tabriz to Ahwaz intifada
Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Kurds fight for freedom on Iran-Iraq border - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
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