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cyppok
30 Aug 08,, 07:58
Theoretically the best way of dealing with Iran is to ferment the fracture from within. That means leaving it alone, in way of direct military confrontation.

Maybe interesting in the end
The following steps are critical.
1*) Azerbaijan and Armenia have to resolve their situation and accept a peace agreement that would suit both parties, ergo neither is happy but willing to live and let live. This is the hardest thing at this point but once achieved the other steps will be easier. (otherwise focus from this conflict will prevent the building of next steps)
2) Create cultural institutions that would push language to the forefront of the agenda and appeal to Iranian Azerbaijanis ergo create/streamline institutions that would filter the middle class of Iranian Az through Azerbaijan's institutions. (model it on other countries successful language programs with same language nations (like Francophone exchanges etc) whereby students from Iranian Az go to Az and are subsidized and vice versa. I am sure its happening now but not on a volume thats necessary.)
3) Ferment either democratic or economic [not both] development in Azerbaijan that would create trade gravity with the bordering Iranian provinces posing a higher standard of living and economic ties. A free trade zone with Iran or something which would tie the people closer if disrupted. (steps 2-4 should take 3+ years or less if several catalysts occur)
4) Simultaneously there must be support for the Kurds/Arabs in Iran to integrate with Kurdish/Arabic community in Iraq this is somewhat tougher but once social dialog is established by creating a link from leaders of ones to leaders of the others and growing across the chain of command it will be easier and faster.
5) Catalyst(s), once oil and gas revenues collapse during worldwide economic slowdown the ties that are created above will allow greater economic mobility and survivability of those stratas which integrated with the neighboring regions. As always the center will try to either re-distribute or tax its options thus alienating the outer areas until rebellion or long-term hostility. The most important people to target for cross-border-societal-integration by the Azeris, Kurds, and Arabs are the military personnel, and/or children of military personnel and of course the respective leaders of those regions local areas.
6) The most important thing is a co-ordinated movement of all three parties during the upheaval and creating a structural rift in the Iranian society/state.
This could be achieved by fermenting Persian nationalism. (hard to achieve)
Hard intrinsic economic shocks (very doable) Drought stricken, Iran buys US wheat for first time in 27 years (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080826024429.y9sbre3f&show_article=1)
Ahem if their drought continues for the next few years we must maximize their dependence on our supply. Most importantly Russia must be on our side
hence the * on 1) because they keep a base in Armenia with at least 5k+ troops for the deterant to Turkey etc... But the real reason is they are the closest wheat producer to Iran whom would be able to supply it other than us. Iran buying wheat from the U.S. because it can't wait means its desperate right now but if we make it dependent and the droughts continue eventually the shortfall will outstrip our ability to make it up or the ships will be held (Like in the "Merchants of Grain" if anyone read that book, grain was used as a weapon) Buying Russian support would be easy, giving up Nato support to Ukraine and a few oil field contracts in Iraq. A smaller Iran would also be in Russian interests as an easier country to deal with afterwards.

The most important thing out of all this if Iran lost all those territories with Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris on its western side would be. Its nuclear prolifiration would be hampered. Further support for Hezbullah etc would diminish. It would have to develop new oil/gas resources to make up for lost oilfields in lost territories whereby more might be shipped to market and reduce prices further.


Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#Iranian_Azeris)
Iran newspaper cockroach cartoon controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_newspaper_cockroach_cartoon_controversy)
Today.Az - Iran links Azeri riots in Tabriz to Ahwaz intifada (http://www.today.az/news/politics/26509.html)
Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Azerbaijan_National_Awakening_Movement)
Kurds fight for freedom on Iran-Iraq border - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/middleeastreports/s_527739.html)

1980s
30 Aug 08,, 12:34
2) Create cultural institutions that would push language to the forefront of the agenda and appeal to Iranian Azerbaijanis ergo create/streamline institutions that would filter the middle class of Iranian Az through Azerbaijan's institutions. (model it on other countries successful language programs with same language nations (like Francophone exchanges etc) whereby students from Iranian Az go to Az and are subsidized and vice versa. I am sure its happening now but not on a volume thats necessary.)

The Iranian government itself already broadcasts radio shows to Azerbaijan Republic in Azeri Turkish. And it would be of little to no benefit for Iranian students to study in Azerbaijan Republic. What makes you think they are going to go there of all places?


3) Ferment either democratic or economic [not both] development in Azerbaijan that would create trade gravity with the bordering Iranian provinces posing a higher standard of living and economic ties. A free trade zone with Iran or something which would tie the people closer if disrupted. (steps 2-4 should take 3+ years or less if several catalysts occur)

You assume, incorrectly, that ethnic-nationalism is something that is strong among Iranian Azeris. It isnt. Shi'a nationalism is what prevails in Iranian Azerbaijan. The government of Azerbaijan Republic has more to fear from a growth of Shi'a nationalism among its own population than the Iranian government has to worry about a growth of Azeri nationalism in northwest Iran. What you suggest would only open the door to bring Azerbaijanis closer to Iran and to Shi'a Islam than Iranian Azeris closer to Azerbaijan Republic, lol.


4) Simultaneously there must be support for the Kurds/Arabs in Iran to integrate with Kurdish/Arabic community in Iraq this is somewhat tougher but once social dialog is established by creating a link from leaders of ones to leaders of the others and growing across the chain of command it will be easier and faster.

You're probably unaware that Saddam Hussein also expected that the Arab community in southwest Iran would revolt against the Islamic Republic and side with the invading Iraqis during the Persian Gulf war based on this notion of 'Arab brotherhood'. He was dead wrong, and so you will be too. The Arabs of Khuzestan resisted Saddam as much as any other Iranian did.

And evidently you're also unaware that the Arab community in Iran is scattered and is not all concentrated along the Iranian border with Iraq. And even where there is an Arab concentration in southwest Iran, they're not a majority and live alongside an equal number (if not greater number) of Persians.

Kurds on the other hand are Iranian through and through. Foreign powers have tried in the past to incite the Kurds to rebel in Iran. They havent. That is why there is no serious Kurdish problem in Iran and why the proxy groups like PJAK are made up of Kurds from the PKK, who are mainly recruits from Iraq or Turkey.


5) Catalyst(s), once oil and gas revenues collapse during worldwide economic slowdown the ties that are created above will allow greater economic mobility and survivability of those stratas which integrated with the neighboring regions. As always the center will try to either re-distribute or tax its options thus alienating the outer areas until rebellion or long-term hostility. The most important people to target for cross-border-societal-integration by the Azeris, Kurds, and Arabs are the military personnel, and/or children of military personnel and of course the respective leaders of those regions local areas.

There are no such things as "local leaders". You must be a little crazy. Iran is not Iraq, and Iran is not Afghanistan. We dont have warlords or tribal leaders or whatever else that you can bribe. I dont think you understand Iranian society. There are Azeris, Kurds, Arabs and representatives from all other minority groups in the Iranian government, military and paramilitary groups. And the Azeris make up a substantive number in the Iranian government. Iran's 'supreme leader' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself is an Azeri.


6) The most important thing is a co-ordinated movement of all three parties during the upheaval and creating a structural rift in the Iranian society/state.
This could be achieved by fermenting Persian nationalism. (hard to achieve)

You have no idea. Persians are already very nationalist, and always have been.


The most important thing out of all this if Iran lost all those territories with Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris on its western side would be. Its nuclear prolifiration would be hampered. Further support for Hezbullah etc would diminish. It would have to develop new oil/gas resources to make up for lost oilfields in lost territories whereby more might be shipped to market and reduce prices further.

Believing that any part of Iran's territory can be 'lost' or split from the rest of the country is as absurd as believing that Washington or New York or New Jersey can be split away from the United States.

As for nuclear proliferation, we dont have any nuclear weapons to proliferate. And in regards to Hezbollah they have the support of not just Shi'as but generally of ordinary Muslims all over the Middle East. So i dont see the connection between Hezbollah and your grand scheme of "fermenting fracture from within Iran". You are under-appreciating the bonds of religion that tie Hezbollah to the Islamic Republic.


Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#Iranian_Azeris)
Iran newspaper cockroach cartoon controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_newspaper_cockroach_cartoon_controversy)
Today.Az - Iran links Azeri riots in Tabriz to Ahwaz intifada (http://www.today.az/news/politics/26509.html)
Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Azerbaijan_National_Awakening_Movement)
Kurds fight for freedom on Iran-Iraq border - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/middleeastreports/s_527739.html)

Overall, a pretty poor 'theory'.

Id fail you if this were something that needed to be graded.

If future American policy makers and strategists have to rely on something like wikipedia to learn about other nation's as you have done then the US's global power may just collapse a whole lot sooner than everyone else is anticipating.

Regards,

Bluesman
30 Aug 08,, 15:34
We'll see who's collapsed first, and probably not all that far in the future.

zraver
30 Aug 08,, 16:29
The best solution is to spend them into civil war. Iranians don't like to admit it, but history has only 1 outcome when the political masters of a state give another group access to political, military, and economic might. The group will try and become the masters. The standoff keeps giving the guards more power, who in turn spend more and more money on armaments. While the Iranian economy is growing, in part due to higher oil prices the rate of inflation is growing faster thanks in part to sanctions.

This sets up a situation where you have a disaffected populace, an elite corps who will go rouge and the clerics caught in the middle sets up a situation that will rise up like a zit and pop. It is only a matter of when not if. The pressure on the economy via armaments spending and sanctions including blocks on development capitol mean it will be sooner than if Iran was left alone instead of completely isolated.

1980's, if war between the US and Iran comes, Iran will fragment as least until the war is over. The US style of war-going after infrastructure means the inability to easily travel to, supply, or inform/govern the various areas of the country will lead to a war time tribalism developing. If the war goes on long enough the whole country could fragment if the US then begins working on these isolated areas. A government is only as strong as its ability to provide the minimum level of services the people expect.

cyppok
30 Aug 08,, 19:10
I do not know where you got ethnic nationalism for Azeris and Arabs. I specifically wrote economic or democratic institutions (in Azerbaidjan and other places NOT IRAN) to tie in border groups in Iran to those institutions in mother countries. This is not ethnic nationalism. This is economic or participatory socialization to shift the ideology of my best outcome is not in Iran but in the other country.

If students are subsidized for learning language and their economic livelihood improves due to trips back and forth others will follow creating ties and viable economic links.

There are always local leaders, governors, mayors, shekhs, police captains etc...

Iran buying wheat from the U.S. is not a good sign mind you. They could have waited and got it from Kazakhstan or Russia. Russia is projected to have a bumper crop. But they didn't wait because they can't. Once food shortages happen due to poor distribution the regions on the borders will tie in economically further with the countries bordering them especially since language and ethnicity is the same. Makes it much easier.

You assume that what I mentioned isn't happening by itself but it is. Its normal development of things the problem is if you accelerate it, its possible to destabilize Iran in a faster period of time.