Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

China's 4-2-1 Problem

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • China's 4-2-1 Problem

    I came across this phenomenom over the weekend, and I think that this could potentially have a huge impact on China's rise beyond the next decade.

    FORA.tv - Nicholas Eberstadt on China's 4-2-1 Problem
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    At what point, does the China's population start aging? When it starts aging, how long does it take to age quickly?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
      At what point, does the China's population start aging? When it starts aging, how long does it take to age quickly?
      Technically, it's aging as we speak ;) The link I provided has the short 4 1/2 minute clip, but you can click on a tab in the player to access the full presentation. He's got some charts that show the demographic bulge.
      "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Shek View Post
        Technically, it's aging as we speak ;) The link I provided has the short 4 1/2 minute clip, but you can click on a tab in the player to access the full presentation. He's got some charts that show the demographic bulge.
        I wish I could understand what they are saying but they have no transcript for me to read. I am deaf. I cannot lipread what they are saying due to the poor quality of video.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
          I wish I could understand what they are saying but they have no transcript for me to read. I am deaf. I cannot lipread what they are saying due to the poor quality of video.
          I probably get to join your club in about two decades thanks to a hereditary condition. Right now, my wife gets upset when I display symptoms of selective hearing disorder

          Here are some other links:

          AEI - Short Publications - China's One-Child Mistake
          AEI - Short Publications - Global Demographic Outlook to 2025
          "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Shek View Post
            I came across this phenomenom over the weekend, and I think that this could potentially have a huge impact on China's rise beyond the next decade.
            Shek,

            How reliable is China's reporting? As you may remember from the past few weeks, Chinese urban middle-class posters were quite transparently indignant about the fact that select populations were exempt from the one-child policy - which brought up the question of reporting: While the exempt minority populations - like the Tibetans - are statistically irrelevant for the purpose of this discussion, the exempt farming and pastoral populations are not so insignificant. China has a plurality of its workforce engaged in farming and

            Regional and economic - especially economic sectoral - differences within China must be taken into account, as is being done in case of India in the transcript below, if one is to extrapolate on the impact it will have. And it has to be done much better than it was done in the case of India (Rural north India does have a Third World pyramid population structure, but it is nowhere like Afghanistan - but rather like the Chinese. The key difference is that Afghanistan was immersed in the Abrahamic theo-social culture, while India is immersed in the Dharmic theo-social culture. How does it matter? For one thing: North India has the same skewed male-female ratio like China, and unlike Afghanistan which has a female surplus... a situation that has the same explanation as in China. Plenty of other such differences...).

            Also I think we give the Chinese society too little credit while analyzing the male-female imbalance. The Chinese society has always had the case of surplus males, so it presumably has built-in social and cultural safety valves. Sure sex-selective abortion may not have been technically feasible back in the old days, but polygamy and concubinage accepted among the privileged men, along with female-infanticide, skewed the marriage-market just as effectively: People dealt with it back then, so I don't see why they won't be able to deal with it in the future?

            Comment


            • #7
              Cactus,

              This weekend was actually the first time I had come across demography being discussed vis a vis China in terms of age groups, so I don't have a good feel at all to gauge whether the projections are good, and even if so, what the true impact will be. However, given the concern over internal security and the measured transition to a capitalistic market governed by a one party, communist government, I think that this is definitely something to keep on the radar screen.
              "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

              Comment


              • #8
                Huge

                An absolutely irreversible decline in the population. Male population declining. Female population more so. The nation is rapidly aging.

                A diminished pool of talent from which to draw labor, defense, and management needs. Who pays for the inevitable shift in services? How? An inconsequential domestic consumer market?

                Yeah. Huge AND immediate with conditions only worsening as we write.

                The next fifteen years are already dialed in.
                Last edited by S2; 10 Jun 08,, 01:29.
                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                Comment


                • #9
                  There has recently been much discussion of ending the one child policy. For the near term I think the govt remains committed to it, but that could very well change. Another intersting thing is the growing number of affluent urban Chinese who are choosing to have more than one child and simply paying the fine for having a second child. I work with a woman who is pregnant with her second child and she said that the financial penalty for a second child is something that she and her husband decided was affordable. I have heard about wealthy couples having several children, but Im not sure how common it is.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by HKDan View Post
                    There has recently been much discussion of ending the one child policy. For the near term I think the govt remains committed to it, but that could very well change. Another intersting thing is the growing number of affluent urban Chinese who are choosing to have more than one child and simply paying the fine for having a second child. I work with a woman who is pregnant with her second child and she said that the financial penalty for a second child is something that she and her husband decided was affordable. I have heard about wealthy couples having several children, but Im not sure how common it is.
                    Sounds like it might become a child tax instead of a fine because of increasing incomes?
                    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      That might be the direction that it is going in. Its hard to tell though because I think that the govt would be extremly sensitive about making large families something for the rich only. The growing rich-poor divide is already a pretty big issue. I think officially saying that it was OK to have big families if you pay a tax might not get a good reaction. It might just remain one of the many legal grey areas in China. Somthing that you can do, but it really isn't approved of or talked about.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                        An absolutely irreversible decline in the population. Male population declining. Female population more so. The nation is rapidly aging.

                        A diminished pool of talent from which to draw, labor, defense, and management needs. Who pays for the inevitable shift in services? How? An inconsequential domestic consumer market?

                        Yeah. Huge AND immediate with conditions only worsening as we write.

                        The next fifteen years are already dialed in.
                        S-2,

                        I can see the shrinkage in the 'talent pool' being offset by the ability to focus more resources on the smaller pool. I'm betting that China is still only able to tap into a minority of its potential at present, so having a population a few hundred million less might not make a huge difference in that respect.

                        Less children also means more disposable income. I wonder how much this is having an impact on the current boom? I also wonder if it might change the dynamics of old age - with people more able to fund themselves, rather than relying on their children.

                        I do wonder what will happen as the size of the potential workforce shrinks. Will there be wages pressure? Will there be enough people of the right age to keep the economy pumping? What to do with all those young men who will not find partners? Can the current boom create enough infrastructure & save enough money to take pressure off the next generation? Will increasing incomes mean that more & more people have 2 children - perhaps creating a 'soft landing' of sorts? Will there be a 'meat in the sandwich' generation trying to support more parents & children than it can afford to?

                        It will certainly be interesting & there will no doubt be problems. The truth is that there is no point of reference for a society like modern China. Extrapolating existing data may not really help. Anything we think is just guesswork.

                        I just hope to hell they get it right. I would rather deal with a booming China than a collapsing one.
                        sigpic

                        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          One thing that China can work on to offset the possible effects of a smaller workforce would be to focus on increasing worker productivity and efficiency. Add a massive investment in job training and some education reform, this might not be as big of a problem as it seems at a first glance(if its dealt with well, of course). I think that the real trick will be to make sure that incomes keep increasing so that the smaller pool of workers actually ends up making more money. Its not out of the question.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by HKDan View Post
                            One thing that China can work on to offset the possible effects of a smaller workforce would be to focus on increasing worker productivity and efficiency. Add a massive investment in job training and some education reform, this might not be as big of a problem as it seems at a first glance(if its dealt with well, of course). I think that the real trick will be to make sure that incomes keep increasing so that the smaller pool of workers actually ends up making more money. Its not out of the question.

                            Indeed. I don't think we really have the first idea of just what potential exists within China. I imagine that opportunities for greater efficiency & productivity are practically limitless. As, I suspect, are the possibilities still untapped in that part of the population not currently participating in the economic boom. It may not be a magic bullet, but it may help a great deal.
                            sigpic

                            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Bigfella,

                              Couldn't agree more. There is no way of telling how China will deal with the many issues that face their continued growth and development, but it is safe to say that there are many things that they can do to help. My own personal pet issue with China is their seriously in need of reform education system. A good hard look at where they are compared with where they want to be and some willingness to make hard changes could absolutely bring about a huge amount of progress in CHina. Much is made in China of the difficulties faced by university graduates in finding jobs. A lot of that comes from the fact that so few of China's graduates have useful skills. Those that have studied abroad on the other hand seem to do very well, and returning to our original topic, are much more able to support older relatives.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X