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Fascinating: The Jihadists Admit Defeat in Iraq

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  • Fascinating: The Jihadists Admit Defeat in Iraq

    Talisman Gate بـاب الطلــسم: Fascinating: The Jihadists Admit Defeat in Iraq

    A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an ‘explosive’ study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda’s 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!

    The author, writing under the pseudonym ‘Dir’a limen wehhed’ [‘A Shield for the Monotheist’], posted his ‘Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the [Jihadist] Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq’ on May 12 and it is being displayed by the administration of the Al-Ekhlaas website—one of Al-Qaeda’s chief media outlets—among its more prominent recent posts. He's considered one of Al-Ekhlaas's "esteemed" writers.

    The author tallies up and compares the numbers of operations claimed by each insurgent group under four categories: a year and half ago (November 2006), a year ago (May 2007), six months ago (November 2007) and now (May 2008). He demonstrated that while Al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq could claim 334 operations in Nov. 06 and 292 in May 07, their violent output dropped to 25 in Nov. 07 and 16 so far in May 08. Keep in mind that these assessments are based on Al-Qaeda's own numbers.

    The author also shows that similar steep drops were exhibited by other jihadist groups, and he neatly puts it all together in these two charts:





    ***

    Furthermore, I want to point out something even more critical: this defeat is not only a tactical one for the jihadists; this defeat is strategic in essence since it snuffs out their dream of resurrecting the caliphate, the raison d’être of modern jihad.

    In case there are naysayers out there who’d question the Islamic State of Iraq’s relevance to the caliphate, then I’d like to direct them to a 101 page edict published by the ISI under the title ‘Informing the People About the Birth of the State of Islam’ that they put out during January 2007. The ISI legitimates itself by the same premises that the classical theorists of the caliphate (Juweini, Mawardi...etc.) set down for picking a caliph in medieval times. Then a month later, the 'Global Islamic Media Front' republished a 1987 Master’s thesis that further expands on these points and adds the one about the necessity of a Qurayshi ancestry for the would-be caliph—as is claimed by the head of ISI, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, for himself. Numerous works have also been added to bolster the argument that al-Baghdadi’s ‘election’ followed the precepts mandated for a caliph: clearly the title of ‘Prince of the Faithful’ that was bestowed on him had a whole different, more profound implication than the identical one awarded to Mullah Omar, an ethnic Pashtun and non-Qurayshi, during the Taliban days.

    Thus, not only is America defeating Al-Qaeda militarily in Iraq but it is also squashing the grand jihadist vision for a caliphate that the Islamic State of Iraq stood for. This point is critical: in this ideological war, victory can only come about when the ideology of the opponent is negated and proven unworkable. The fight in Iraq is doing just that.

    I’m not saying that the jihadists won’t keep trying to find a workable formula for the caliphate elsewhere, but for now they have been dealt a severe demoralizing blow.

    Put that in your pipe and smoke it all ye calling for a hasty withdrawal.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    Shek Reply

    "Put that in your pipe and smoke it all ye calling for a hasty withdrawal."

    Don't confuse the election issues with facts. You've been warned before.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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    • #3
      Originally posted by S-2 View Post
      "Put that in your pipe and smoke it all ye calling for a hasty withdrawal."

      Don't confuse the election issues with facts. You've been warned before.
      With my limited sleep this week, I'm not sure what I'm missing . . .
      "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

      Comment


      • #4
        shek Reply

        Nothing at all. Great article and a poor attempt at a joke. Reads like sh!t. My apologies.

        The article makes clear the distress that A.Q.I. must feel. I only wonder if anybody running would even notice...
        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by S-2 View Post
          Nothing at all. Great article and a poor attempt at a joke. Reads like sh!t. My apologies.

          The article makes clear the distress that A.Q.I. must feel. I only wonder if anybody running would even notice...
          No sweat on the joke - I figured it was but wasn't sure if maybe you had a few too many last night :))

          As I've stated in the past, I like to discount Kabrimi some to compensate for his brash predictions, but even then, this is still very good news as long as the trend continues . . .
          "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

          Comment


          • #6
            Maybe I am cynical.

            While the ground position indeed indicates that the AQ and most of the fundamentalists are losing steam rapidly, yet, I would be also wary that this could be part disinformation.

            It is only those with hard intelligence, who alone would know where to draw the line.

            And I have no hard intelligence, but am very suspicious of such statement since fanatics have no intelligence or brains! They are mere robots and handmaidens of evil men lusting for self glory and personal power!!

            S 2 is in a mood for jokes these days! ;) :))


            "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

            I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

            HAKUNA MATATA

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            • #7
              Ray Reply

              "I would be also wary that this could be part disinformation."

              Brigadier,

              Possibly. More likely is that it's a poorly conceived study. I'd love to see their "research section" and question the level of operational awareness and C3I that A.Q.I is able to exercise.

              Still, Kabrimi contributes to the NYSun which is a tabloid-right paper. It's contributors are an interesting mix of "view from the right" guys, to include an Iranian and Kabrimi. Ralph Peters contributes frequently there.

              No joke.
              "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
              "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

              Comment


              • #8
                from a more scientific standpoint, obviously one would need to ask about the guy's methodology; i don't know how much i'd trust AQ's own numbers. it'd be interesting to see if US numbers roughly correlate.
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                  The article makes clear the distress that A.Q.I. must feel. I only wonder if anybody running would even notice...
                  Frankly I don't know why this Jihadist writer is sweating statistics like this so badly. They'll be back in business within, what? 6 months or so?

                  All they (groups like Al-Qaeda in Iraq) have to do is hunker down, maintain their presence through a low-volume but steady stream of terror attacks until November. Problem solved.

                  The Democratic Party - The Jihadist's Only Hope of Salvation
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Sun-Post

                    Correction on my earlier comment. Amir Taheri and Ralph Peters write for the POST- not the SUN. I don't know as much about the SUN's politics so...

                    In any case, mea culpa.;)
                    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Could this not also just be a patient "delay tactic"?

                      "Peace is a time to gather one's forces"...
                      If you know the enemy and yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. - Sun Tzu

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