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My finals paper- McCain's financial woes.

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  • My finals paper- McCain's financial woes.

    Ok Guys, here is a paper I had to write for my politics of presidential selection class with Dr. Gary Wekkin.

    When the Chickens Come Home to Roost.
    By Jason B.....

    Politics of Presidential Selection
    Dr Gary Wekkin
    20 April 22, 2008

    Abstract: The maverick senator, campaign dollars and the presidency

    As the Democratic candidates Clinton and Obama battle for the top spot in the Democrat primary they do so in full knowledge that they will face Republican maverick John McCain for the top spot in the nation. McCain must now campaign in an environment radically changed because of McCain-Finegold. In this paper I will explore polling data, historical evidence, current financial contributions and other factors in an attempt to determine if McCain’s candidacy is negatively affected by campaign finance reform and his maverick past. In particular I will focus on his ability to raise funds with the assumption that money enables message. I will also compare his campaign message to both Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama’s campaigns to contrast strengths, weaknesses and voter appeal if the money was not an issue.

    McCain faces several challenges now that he has secured the Republican Party nomination. Probably his biggest problem right now is rallying the right wing base to him and getting the party stalwarts to unlock the pocket books that have remained closed so far. This is critical now that there appears no chance that either potential rival will agree to federal funding with the attached limits on spending. This however will be no easy task; McCain’s past as a reformer and crusader have left a sour taste in the mouths of many who he is now counting on to finance his efforts.





    When the Chickens Come Home to Roost.

    At first glance Senator John McCain seems like the ideal candidate for president of the United States. He is a war hero who declined favors while a Prisoner of War who descends from a family with a history of putting themselves between our enemies and our way of life. He has made his more recent mark in Washington by not playing by the rules of Washington, but by the ethics of the Heartland. Declining to dip his hand into the purse called earmarks, crossing the isle to sponsor legislation he believes in, and finally unabashedly staking everything on an idea that he holds dear. These qualities that define his “maverikness” have shown to have a wide appeal with moderate Republicans and independents and have secured him the Republican nomination for the 2008 Presidential race.

    However the very elevation to the status of presumptive nominee reveals some very serious short comings: particularly with regards to fund raising. McCain’s ability to raise money has so far not demonstrated itself. In March 2008, McCain only raised 15 million dollars 1 (USA today) while both of his potential rivals in November raised a combined amount more than four times what he did 2 . That the Republican candidate should be trailing so far behind the Democrats is not something that could have been easily predicted.

    The previous Republican to run for the White House, George W. Bush, raised over 100 million in 2000 and 150 to 170 million in 2004. Bush shattered all previous records for fund raising, and the Republican Party has long been seen as the party with the deep pockets: so what happened? McCain’s chickens have come home to roost.

    McCain’s years long ram rodding campaign finance reform through congress and his opposition of the Bush tax Cuts has had three profound effects on his bid for the presidency. First as already detailed was its cementing his popularity with moderates and independents. The next two however have choked off his fund raising. The second major effect was to turn large segments of the Republican Party and its most vocal mouth pieces against the Arizona Senator. The third effect is the unintended consequences of McCain-Feingold. These final two have combined to leave him all but shut out of the money race.

    Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannidy and other conservative pundits were prolific in their attacks on John McCain. Ann Coulter went so far as to endorse Hillary Clinton on Sean Hannidy’s show. This type of deep seated revulsion finds its biggest roots in the Senators opposition to the Bush tax cuts. He was one of only 2 Republican Senators to oppose the 2001 cuts. He is also on record recently 3 as opposing part of the president’s stimulus package. While on NBC’s Hardball he said, “It is middle-income Americans that have kept our economy afloat by buying houses and automobiles. I believe that they deserve the majority of the break, not the higher-income level of Americans.”

    For many conservatives, especially upper income members of the party there seemingly exists little need for government other than to cut their taxes and pad their profits. By not championing this virtual plank of the Republican Party John McCain is the instant outsider. His further attacks on their ability to use their wealth to drive their platform via Campaign Finance Reform only locked the already closed door to the party faithful’s money.

    McCain-Feingold sits like a morsel of food stuck in the teeth for many conservatives. Its major provisions did less to limit the financial speech of the wealthy than it did to make that speech audible to the general public. By targeting soft money- the money the party uses to push issue ads, and disclosure the Senator forced the money into the spotlight.

    McCain began pushing campaign finance reform after being called before the Senate for possible ethics violations in regards to the Lincoln Savings and Loan scandal and Charles Keating. Known as one of the Keating Five, the Senator said it was his darkest moments, worse even than the Hanoi Hilton. Although cleared of any wrong doing the incident set the stage for his reform crusade.

    It is important to understand his involvement in the Lincoln Savings and Loan scandal. According to Dan Nowiki of “The Arizona Republic” 5, John McCain first met Keating in 1981 when John McCain gave a speech at a Navy League Dinner. Since that early meeting the bond between McCain and Keating had grown. Keating was an early supporter of the former POW’s runs for first the House and then the Senate. McCain and his family had flown on Keating’s jet and invested over $300,000 in a Keating owned shopping center.

    However even given his close personal ties to Keating, McCain at first attempted to remain out of the issue having only been in the Senate for 3 months 5. According to the Arizona Republic expose once McCain was aware of the trouble Lincoln Financial and Charles Keating faced he cut all ties with his long time supporter. That however did not save him from the Senate Investigation. Although he was only taken to task for a serious lapse in judgment and not a more serious charge or crime the incident left him scarred.

    Many believe that McCain’s quest for Campaign Finance reform that began in 1995 finds its roots in the Keating 5. S1219 was first Introduced Sept 7th 1995 6 The Bill died in 1996 but the issue like the maverick Senator would not go away and the issue was taken up again as S.25 in January of 1997. S.25 as introduced would have retained bans prohibiting PAC (political action committees) from contributing money to Senate and House candidates and from spending soft money on the party’s issues as well as voter registration drives 120 days before an election. S. 25 defined soft money as, “money raised and spent outside of the limits of Federal election law for national political parties.

    While S. 1219 and S. 25 went down to eventual defeat Senator McCain stuck to his guns. And following his defeat verses George W Bush for the 2000 Republican Party nomination was finally able to get traction for S. 27 in 2001. 7 Perhaps, and this is just speculation- the Senator was re-energized by the huge disparity in money George W Bush was able to raise. Regardless, President Bush signed the Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002 in to law on 6 November 2002. The law took effect on 1 January 2003. 8

    One of the most immediate effects of the new law was the rise of the 527’s. 527’s are issue organizations which conduct issue awareness campaigns, voter registration drives and other activities out side of Federal Election Committee or state election committee oversight. Two prominent 527’s from the 2004 Presidential race were Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Move on and America Votes. 9 During the 2004 election cycle 527’s spent nearly 400 million dollars. The 2006 elections saw more widespread spending by the 527’s most of which was spent against the Republican Party’s candidates and issues. This imbalance in 527 dollars and McCain’s continued championing of the new election finance laws such as his spat with Univsion founder, A Jerald Perenchio in 2006. 10 May have served to keep the party’s money away from the Senator. Although McCain and Perenchio seem to have patched things up with Perenchio being co-chair of McCain’s national finance committee, other Republicans have apparently not warmed up to the Crusading Senator.10

    This could also be due to McCain’s history of bi-partisan ship and embrace of moderate and left leaning positions in some areas. A habit he has continued according to the April 5th online issue of the Prescott Arizona, Daily Courier. The paper has John McCain comparing himself to two other famous Arizonans who were known for bi-partisanship: Mo Udall and Barry Goldwater. The paper also has Senator McCain quoted as saying, ”Public servants must work cooperatively across party lines without compromising our principles.” This thinking and action by McCain has routinely been lambasted by those on the right who feel America is engaged in culture war.

    More importantly to them however than any culture war is a wallet war. During the weeks leading up to the New Hampshire primary, Grover Norquest is quoted as saying, “If the rest of Congress had voted the way Senator McCain did, your taxes would be a trillion dollars higher today then they are.” 11. These comments did not occur in a vacuum and are echoed by other conservative pro-tax break persons like Club for Growth President Pat Toomey and the new Hampshire based Josiah Bartlett Center President Charlie Arlinghaus.11 These individuals are not just talking heads or commentators like Limbaugh and Colter but lead major conservative organizations.

    How much influence groups and commentators like these have was made evident during the primaries. Evangelicals and ultra conservatives: foundation constituencies of the modern Republican Party for example overwhelmingly voted for McCain’s rival Mike Huckabee in Texas and Ohio.13 CNN 14 also reported that during exit polling in Wisconsin, those voters who considered themselves extremely conservative were more likely to vote for Mike Huckabee. This luke warm support from core groups with in the Republican party seems to be manifesting in McCain’s inability to match either of his potential Democrat rivals in fund raising.

    The threat this poses to the Senator’s presidential hopes cannot be under stated. Starting in 2001 and continuing into the 2008 New Hampshire primary John McCain remained unapologetic in his stance against the Bush Tax cuts. Statements like, “I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief.”, have not won him friends in the Republican party. This stance however has recently moderated with his pledge that is elected he will not raise taxes. 16

    For a man who has made his mark by swimming against the currents in his party this sudden reversal is indicative of just how hard pressed he is to raise money. The situation vis a vis Obama or Hillary is likely to get worse not better. With Barrack Obama having seemingly abandoned his pledge to use public funding 16, McCain will have to backtrack on more issues and do so convincingly if he hopes to unlock the vault loads of money he will need to win in November.

    These other conservative issues that he will need to address include the judiciary, immigration, climate change. 17 In all of these issues John McCain has deviated significantly from widely held party views. On immigration, McCain favored a pathway to citizenship for illegals already here. However at the Republican Debate held in the Reagan Library he changed his position.18 he seemed to stress closed borders and obstacles to illegals working at all, rather than any path to citizenship.

    Global Warming is another hot button issue where a “reversal” is likely to be seen in statements from the Arizona Repulican. In 2004 the Arizona Senator said, “Some of us believe that the accumulation of knowledge argues that we act, rather than to continue to accumulate knowledge.” This was a direct swipe at President Bush after the release of the 2004 Report on Arctic warming. 19 This has come back to haunt him. A march 21 2008 article on Bloomberg.com lambastes the Senator as championing Global warming even over the Senators well known cause celeb- the war in Iraq. This type of attack ad runs in the face of both McCain’ actual actions and the rating by the League of Conservation Voters which says McCain has only voted pro-environment one time.

    Taken together, campaign finance reform, opposition to tax cuts and the smaller issues have added up to a money crisis for the McCain campaign. A crisis compounded by an enigma. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have a wide appeal with moderates and Independents. For the Junior Illinois Senator this has translated into well voter 100 million dollars. Not so for John McCain, who gets votes but not dollars. The why of this will probably not be known by the public until well after the election cycle has ended and the new President of the United States has been sworn in. However if John McCain wants to be that president it is one more issue regarding money he has to solve.

    Solutions to the funding crisis so far seem to be eluding his campaign. But in a campaign that has staked itself to the Iraq issue, and with that issue fading from the public radar as media attention shifts to domestic matters and the continuing Democrat race McCain might be running out of options. Even his chosen issue-Iraq, is not likely to garner him much support, even from the 527’s he helped unwittingly to create. There are no significant groups running issue ads calling on Americans to support the war in Iraq. However there are anti-war groups calling for the whole sale withdrawal from Iraq. The money these 527’s spend should be counted as money virtually spent by McCain’s rivals. They allow either Hillary or Obama free attacks ads and all but broadcast either’s agenda if elected. This only further stacks the deck against McCain in November and is yet one more unintended political chicken coming home to roost.

    Without the money to push his agenda on a national stage and unable to garner much in the way of earned media attention because of the prolonged Democrat Primary Season, John McCain faces hurdles in getting his message out and contrasted with either of his potential rivals. Aside from the Iraq war issue several other areas exist where he differs from the Democrat candidates.

    Some these issues are as follows. Health care where McCain wishes to keep a reformed private sector: a stark difference to Hillary Clinton’s goal of a single payer system. Or his call for strict constructionist judges while neither of his possible rivals even mentions this topic on the issues section of their respective campaign sites. There are also other issues like guns, foreign policy, and the national abortion debate where Republicans and Democrats are traditionally at odds. 21,22,23

    Cut out of the bigger slices of the election money pie by his own pre-election cycle reform efforts and fair minded tax policy, John McCain may go down in history not as the 44th President of the United States, but as just another name in a long line failed of aspirants to the most powerful office in the world. He may also go down as an example of “be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.”

    Notes
    1.Associated Press. “McCain Fundraising tops $15 Million in March, Still Trails Dems.” USA today (April 7, 2008) McCain fundraising tops $15M in March, still trails Dems - USATODAY.com (accessed April 11, 2008)
    2.Associated Press. “March Fundraising Madness Leaves Obama Smiling.” Truth Dig (April 3, 2008)
    Truthdig - Ear to the Ground - March Fundraising Madness Leaves Obama Smiling (accessed April 11, 2008)
    3. Robert Yoon, Todd Gharring. “Bush Raises Record Funding at years End.” CNN. (January 7, 2004) CNN.com - Bush raises record funds at year's end - Jan. 7, 2004 (accessed April 11, 2008)
    4. Anthony York. “Republican Moderates balk at Bush Tax Cuts.” Salon (January 9, 2003) Republican moderates balk at Bush tax cut - Salon.com (accessed April 11, 2008)
    5. Dan Nowiki, Bill Muller. “The Keating Five.” Arizona Republic. (March 1, 2007) azcentral.com | Phoenix Arizona News - Arizona Local News (accessed April 11, 2008)
    6. “S. 25 McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Bill.” US Senate. (October 1, 1997) http://www.senate.gov/~rpc/releases/...-McCain-lo.htm (accessed April 22, 2008)
    7. Scott Harshbarger, Edwin Davis. “Federal Campaign Finance Reform: The long Winding Road.” National Civic Review. (2007) NCR 90:2: Chapter 2 (accessed April 22, 2008)
    8. “Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002.” Federal Election Commision (2002) Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (accessed April 22, 2008)
    9. “527 Committee Activity.” Open Secrets (February 28, 2008) 527s: 527 Committee Activity (accessed April 22, 2008)
    10. John Solomon. “One Time Reformer Taps Big Donors.” Washington Post (February 11, 2007) One Time Reformer Taps Big Donors - washingtonpost.com (accessed April 22, 2008)
    11. Joanna Dodder Nellins. “McCain Calls for Bipartisanship in Mold of Goldwater, Udall.” Daily Courier (April 5, 2008) Denied:1up! Software (accessed April 22, 2008)
    12. Josiah Ryan. “McCain Rejects Anti-tax Pledge, Supports Vote Agaisnt Bush tax Cut.” CNS News. (January 7, 2008) McCain Rejects Anti-Tax Pledge, Supports Vote Against Bush Tax Cuts -- 01/07/2008 (accessed April 22, 2008)
    13. Josiah Ryan. “Exit Poll: McCain Still Not Attracting Evangelicals.” CNS News (March 6, 2008) Exit Poll: McCain Still Not Attracting Evangelicals -- 03/06/2008 (accessed April 22, 2008)
    14. Exit Polls: Moderates Give McCain a Boost in Wisconsin.” CNN (February 20, 2008) Exit polls: Moderates give McCain a boost in Wisconsin - CNN.com (accessed April 22, 2008)
    15. Associated Press. “McCain Says No New Taxes If He’s Eleclted.” MSNBC (February 17,2008) McCain says no new taxes - John McCain News - MSNBC.com (accessed April 22, 2008)
    16. Dan Balz. “McCain Challenges Obama on Public Financing.” Washington Post (April 11, 2008) McCain Challenges Obama on Public Financing | The Trail | washingtonpost.com (accessed April 22, 2008)
    17. Robert D, Novak. “Is McCain a Conservative” Washington Post. (January 31, 2008) Robert D. Novak - Is McCain a Conservative? - washingtonpost.com (accessed April 22, 2008)
    18. “John McCain on Immigration.” On the Issues (February 28, 2008) John McCain on Immigration (accessed April 22, 2008)
    19. Associated Press. “McCain Raps Bush on Global Warming.” USA Today (November 17,2004) USATODAY.com - McCain raps Bush on global warming (accessed April 22, 2008)
    20. Edwin Chen, “McCain is Praised for His Climate Stance, Not His Environmentalism.” Bloomberg.com (March 21, 2008) Bloomberg.com: Worldwide (accessed April 22, 2008)
    21.“John McCain For President.” McCain (2008) John McCain 2008 - John McCain for President (accessed April 22, 2008)
    22. “Change We Can Belive In.” Obama08. (2008) Barack Obama | Change We Can Believe In | Home (accessed April 22, 2008)
    23. “Help Make History.” Hillary For President (2008) HillaryClinton.com - Welcome (accessed April 22, 2008)
    Last edited by zraver; 22 Apr 08,, 08:41.

  • #2
    Z,

    Could you reformat this with a double paragraph so that we could read this easier?

    Thanks

    Comment


    • #3
      Somehow I get the feeling that McCain doesn't need money -- he was outspent 10-1 in Florida by Romney yet still won. McCain is a genius in getting free press.
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

      Comment


      • #4
        How much of their warchests have Obama and Clinton spent? Will Democratic donors mend fences over the ultimate selection such that an Obama supporter will throw some money Clinton's way, or vice versa? It seems to me that McCain isn't a strong ideological threat to the Democrats, and so will they be less motivated to give to their candidate (and potentially underestimate him because he isn't a prolific money raiser)?
        "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

        Comment


        • #5
          Not knowing much about campaign finance, but isn't there a limit that can be raised per cycle (primary and general) and cannot be carried over?

          Since we are still in the primary cycle It would be to McCains advantage not to have people contribute if he cannot use that money for the general election.

          And how much has the party raised for the general election?


          Remember the money that the Dems are raising is being used now. To bash each other McCain needs to spend enough just so people remember that he is still alive.

          Comment


          • #6
            While on NBC’s Hardball he said, “It is middle-income Americans that have kept our economy afloat by buying houses and automobiles. I believe that they deserve the majority of the break, not the higher-income level of Americans.”
            I never understood how a party that opposes this could win elections. Stands like this are the only reason he will have a chance to win in the fall. Unfortunately he backtracked so much during the primaries that a lot of people like myself who found him palatable don't feel the same way now. to win the primary he alienated a lot of unaffiliated voters.
            Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.”
            ~Ronald Reagan

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Shek View Post
              How much of their warchests have Obama and Clinton spent? Will Democratic donors mend fences over the ultimate selection such that an Obama supporter will throw some money Clinton's way, or vice versa? It seems to me that McCain isn't a strong ideological threat to the Democrats, and so will they be less motivated to give to their candidate (and potentially underestimate him because he isn't a prolific money raiser)?

              Shek,

              without wanting to underestimate the ability of the Dems to shoot themselves in the foot, I would have thought 8 years of Bush would be enough of a motivator for them to manage a united front at least until the election.

              I would have thought this applied especially to donors. I think Bush was badly underestimated in 2000. Not sure they'll make the same mistake again, especially against a candidate of undoubted substance & the ability to poach centrist Democrats.
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                Shek,

                without wanting to underestimate the ability of the Dems to shoot themselves in the foot, I would have thought 8 years of Bush would be enough of a motivator for them to manage a united front at least until the election.

                I would have thought this applied especially to donors. I think Bush was badly underestimated in 2000. Not sure they'll make the same mistake again, especially against a candidate of undoubted substance & the ability to poach centrist Democrats.
                You'd have thought that after the inept campaign run in 2000 that they would have run a better campaign in 2004. They've put on some pretty weak campaigns in my lifetime.

                With Congress in their hands, I think that the total sense urgency isn't there. Also, I think that there will be a lot of bad blood that remains following the convention (which will actually be what a convention used to be - where the candidated was decided, not coronated) no matter who ends up with the nomination.
                "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

                Comment

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