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Economic performance reports

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  • Economic performance reports

    With the cries of recession being howled, I figured it would be a good time to whip out the common statistics (seasonally adjusted) that measure the macroeconomy.

    Unemployment - 4.9% (down from 5.1% in Dec and Jan)
    Consumer Price Index (inflation) - no change from Jan, with the extrapolated annual rate from the prior 3 months equating to a 3.1% inflation rate
    Core Inflation (CPI minus fuel and food - this is what the Fed tracks to make its decisions) - 2.2% (holding steady and just barely above the 2% mark that the Fed likes)
    Growth (Real GDP) - 0.6% in 4th quarter 2007

    Unemployment is still at or below the natural rate of unemployment. Inflation is a concern but appears to be holding steady at the high end of the comfort zone.
    Growth is sluggish, but forecasts call for it to pick up in the coming quarters.

    While the sensationalized cases like Bear Stearns and the constant drumbeat of the housing market make it seem like the economy is down the tubes, the current performance speaks otherwise about the economy in the aggregrate (which isn't to say that certain parts of the country aren't feeling pain). It will be interesting to see how things play out, but it makes me wonder whether there might end up being a self-fufilling prophecy element to any potential recession.

    Here are two diverging opinions on where the economy is headed:

    U.S. faces severe recession: NBER's Feldstein - Yahoo! News
    UCLA experts don't buy recession - Los Angeles Times
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!11!!!1!1111!!!

    You're lying! This country is doomed! DOOOOOOOMMMMMEEEEDDDD!!!!

    This is the worst economy since Herbert Hoover. Kids can't afford to see a doctor. The elderly are being evicted from their homes. All our jobs are outsourced by the evil corporations. Millions of undocumented workers just want to work here and live a normal life. Racism is still a problem. Our only hope lies in an African socialist. We must cut taxes for the middle class and working family while increase taxes everywhere else to stimulate the economy, pay for universal health care, bail out home owners who can't afford to pay their mortgages, increase employment, make gasoline cheaper, cool down the planet, and withdraw from Iraq. Roll back the Bush tax cut and all of these promises will be fulfilled.






















    How's that for an Obamanation?
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    • #3
      Bear Stearns is dead and the sharks are circling around Merryl.
      Id say thats pretty darn serious.
      Bear Stearns | Bear’s pits | Economist.com
      For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

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      • #4
        When I was driving through Massachusetts last week I caught a news thingie where they were not whining but just reporting. The foreclosure numbers were up a measurable percentage from this time last year, something like 5 or 6% I think. But the number that struck me was the actual number, something like 2000 so far. 2000. In all of Massachusetts that's 2000 in 3 months. And So what was it last year before the "crisis"? 1800? 1900? And no one was crying then.

        I hate these manufactured panics as much as I hate manufactured rock stars.

        Besides, I pay my fecking mortgage, I don't give a flip about someone who doesn't.

        -dale

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        • #5
          Originally posted by bolo121 View Post
          Bear Stearns is dead and the sharks are circling around Merryl.
          Id say thats pretty darn serious.
          Bear Stearns | Bear’s pits | Economist.com
          The deal meant a loss for Bear Stearns executives, but JPMorgan assumed all liabilities and assets, so it's real impact on the financial system is limited.

          As far Merrill Lynch, can you provide some article about the "sharks circling around" them, as I couldn't find anything from the news from the first page of Google News. If it were pretty darn serious, I'd expect it to be a headliner, but I could certainly be wrong. Thanks.
          "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

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