Megaterrorism in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics?

[Inst]

Sirs, what do you think the chances of that are?

I could see a motive. If the goal of Islamic Terrorists is to destabilize the world economy, and thus create chaotic conditions amenable to recruitment, why not blow Beijing? Depending on the scale of the attack, investors would become wary of investing in China, and considering the existing instability in China, might weaken the CCP sufficiently to allow Taiwan to declare independence. If the CCP missteps, the PLA will blow themselves up in attacking Taiwan, and China would throw itself into turmoil. In either case, as the world is supposed to be running on two growth engines, America and China, it would be a major blow to the world economy. As the United States is already recessionary, it would send the world into a new recession.

The United States might not want to cooperate with China on this matter, since if China collapses, it would remove a major policy problem for the United States. A democratic India could instead become the dominant power in Asia. Further, the FBI is probably antagonistic towards China, as it is responsible for dealing with Chinese commercial and technological espionage. If the bomb goes that way, it would save the FBI and CIA a lot of work.

Whatever the case is, of the major components in the world economy, China is the most fragile, and the most unprotected. Europe and America have already been innoculated by previous terrorist attacks, while security procedures in China seem, well, Chinese. Further, if the attack is nuclear, then Zhongnanhai goes poof. If China is a weak but strengthening empire held in place by the PLA and the CCP, then without the strong or at least existing leadership of the Politburo, the authoritarian and centralized government could not hold. And considering China's limited nuclear arsenal, it's unlikely that there would be a threat of retaliation against Islamic holy cities. If they take New York, there's a 50/50 chance Mecca goes poof. If they take Beijing, it'll take quite a while for the Chinese to figure out where Mecca is, and by the time they figure it out, they might no longer want to nuke Mecca. Lastly, if China mistakes the attack for an American or Russian attack, a retaliation could start a nuclear war. More anarchy for less work.

Is there something wrong with my reasoning? If there is, please explain. :(

[Officer of Engineers]

Attack Beijing? You know the Garrison is the showcase unit and since Tiannemen, there's a PAP battalion always on alert.

[Bluesman]

Frankly, I think these animals would love to light up ANY high-profile target. If they can get away with it, these mad dogs would love nothing better than to kill huge numbers of ANY non-Muslim types (and they're really not all that picky about killing their own, either).

Here's the way to think about Muslim extremists: they kill EVERYbody, just as a virus would. There's not really any point or strategy involved, although I have no doubt they go through the motions of faking a 'reason' that they do what they do. But they're not warriors; they're killers.

So...do I believe they'd hit the Games if they could? Oh, HELL yes, as hard as they could manage. But would it cause a major dislocation? Nah, just a big ole bodycount, with a massive splash of publicity. And that would be plenty for a terrorist.

[Inst]

LCol: Thank you, sir. I didn't know that. I'm still wondering about smuggling in a nuke. A Google search reveals that Zhongnanhai is actually pretty angsty about this also; they called up the UN about atomic protection procedures. I'm wondering about davesgonechina (Sinologist, amateur, tenementpalm.blogspot.com) asserting in reaction to the recent winter storm crisis in China that the government was run by a batch of
incompetent populists. They're not utterly incompetent, nor are they utter geniuses. Where do they get things right and where do they get things wrong? Is their competence decaying or increasing? Is their delta of competence varying in different fields?

Bluesman, I disagree. I read somewhere an article analyzing the leaked documents for Al-Qaeda planning. It turns out Al-Qaeda's time table is an Islamic Caliphate by 2012, and it's good timing. Since Al-Qaeda's core constituency does not benefit from globalization, throwing a wheel in the cogs of globalization does not harm them, in fact, it benefits them. The weakening of the developed world and the periphery nations means that the countries and peoples outside the periphery nations gain relative strength. This could be said to be the intention of 9/11. Kill the world's leading capitalists. A potential depression that the American government managed to avoid.

[Bluesman]

You give them FAR too much credit. They can no more create the kind of world-altering effects in sensational attacks that you're supposing than they can stop the tide from coming in.

But they can kill large numbers of people on occasion, and they WILL, too, if that's what they're allowed to do by an indifferent security regime, such as was permitted by the US, pre-9/11. Hopefully, we won't be making that mistake again.

[Officer of Engineers]

LCol: Thank you, sir. I didn't know that. I'm still wondering about smuggling in a nuke.

Within the week, the Chinese will be able to determine where the nuke came from, more specifically, which reactor produced the material. Four hours after that, expect an ICBM landing on that reactor's capital city.

They're not utterly incompetent, nor are they utter geniuses. Where do they get things right and where do they get things wrong? Is their competence decaying or increasing? Is their delta of competence varying in different fields?

You're jumping all over the map. I suggest one person, General Cao.

Bluesman, I disagree. I read somewhere an article analyzing the leaked documents for Al-Qaeda planning. It turns out Al-Qaeda's time table is an Islamic Caliphate by 2012, and it's good timing. Since Al-Qaeda's core constituency does not benefit from globalization, throwing a wheel in the cogs of globalization does not harm them, in fact, it benefits them. The weakening of the developed world and the periphery nations means that the countries and peoples outside the periphery nations gain relative strength. This could be said to be the intention of 9/11. Kill the world's leading capitalists. A potential depression that the American government managed to avoid.

Except you will note that Al Queda has backed off targeting the East Europeans and the Chinese - for one very good reason. These peoples have no qualms about genocide.

[Parihaka]

You give them FAR too much credit.

And the rest of the world far too little. Between the Japanese and German world tours circa 1937 - 1945 that's a hell of a lot more disruption and megadeath than if the irhabi had ten nukes, but somehow we didn't all roll over and die.

[Bluesman]

And the rest of the world far too little. Between the Japanese and German world tours circa 1937 - 1945 that's a hell of a lot more disruption and megadeath than if the irhabi had ten nukes, but somehow we didn't all roll over and die.

CORRECT.

[Adux]

Within the week, the Chinese will be able to determine where the nuke came from, more specifically, which reactor produced the material. Four hours after that, expect an ICBM landing on that reactor's capital city.

Sir,

One that, what if it is from our little Nukeboy AQ Khan and Pakistan, Can I say

"You reap as you sow" " ::

Except you will note that Al Queda has backed off targeting the East Europeans and the Chinese - for one very good reason. These peoples have no qualms about genocide.

I have always remembered the line you said,

"I hope they wouldnt push the europeans so far that they will re-open the gas chambers, this time not for the jews rather muslims"

It has had a profound impact on me, because somehow I feel if things does go haywire in europe, this is a possibility.

[Inst]

And if the nuke was stolen from Russia? Would China have the balls to start a war with the #2 nuclear power?

About genocide, so? The damage has been done, the Politburo has become glass and shadows, the Chinese economy has collapsed; huge amounts of wealth are destroyed, the world economy seeps into depression, what's so bad about getting China's Muslim population pogrom-ed? If you can kill 4000 innocent Americans and not feel a thing, what's the difference between that and a hundred or so million Muslims? If I recall, Al-Qaeda went Shiite-popping; killing their fellow Muslims in Iraq. Sure, they're of another sect, but Muslims in China, the Hui minority at least, they're fairly heterodox. Female imams? And what would the reaction be within the organization? The guys on the bottom will think; the innocents were killed by the infidel Chinese, more reason to continue the global Jihad, and better tape for our recruiting videos; we can use Western footage.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir,

One that, what if it is from our little Nukeboy AQ Khan and Pakistan, Can I say

"You reap as you sow" " ::

The Chinese turned on their Vietnamese ally and had moved the 38 and 39 Group Armies to the Korean border. The Pakistanis should have no illusions about Chinese retaliation.

I have always remembered the line you said,

"I hope they wouldnt push the europeans so far that they will re-open the gas chambers, this time not for the jews rather muslims"

It has had a profound impact on me, because somehow I feel if things does go haywire in europe, this is a possibility.

I 2nded the thought but it was not my line. I think that was Parihaka's but it might have been Dalem's.

A word of advice, Son, don't take too much pleasure in our conclusions. We arrive at these conclusions through experience of the horrors that we saw and have no desire to see them again. We state these as a warning, not as a prophecy.

[Officer of Engineers]

And if the nuke was stolen from Russia? Would China have the balls to start a war with the #2 nuclear power?

It would not be from Russia. It would not be from the US. It would not be from the UK. It would not be from France. It would not be from India. Because if it were, then they suck as nuclear weapons holders ... or that they deliberately allow a nuke to slip through. In either case, if it was any of the N5 minus China, a proper explanation must be in order ... or the Chinese would go on automatic.

About genocide, so? The damage has been done, the Politburo has become glass and shadows, the Chinese economy has collapsed; huge amounts of wealth are destroyed, the world economy seeps into depression, what's so bad about getting China's Muslim population pogrom-ed? If you can kill 4000 innocent Americans and not feel a thing, what's the difference between that and a hundred or so million Muslims? If I recall, Al-Qaeda went Shiite-popping; killing their fellow Muslims in Iraq. Sure, they're of another sect, but Muslims in China, the Hui minority at least, they're fairly heterodox. Female imams? And what would the reaction be within the organization? The guys on the bottom will think; the innocents were killed by the infidel Chinese, more reason to continue the global Jihad, and better tape for our recruiting videos; we can use Western footage.

You really want to see the result of a billion p!ssed off Chinese?

[Parihaka]

I 2nded the thought but it was not my line. I think that was Parihaka's but it might have been Dalem's.

A word of advice, Son, don't take too much pleasure in our conclusions. We arrive at these conclusions through experience of the horrors that we saw and have no desire to see them again. We state these as a warning, not as a prophecy.

M21Sniper, me and Dale in the 'dem muslims' thread. IIRC I talked about the historical proofs of the wests capacity for genocide when we felt sufficient threat, Dale specifically about Europe, and M21 about how with sufficient provocation the soccer mums would give us no peace until we'd turned large sections of the globe into glass parking lots.

And yes we did talk about it as a warning, knowing our culture as we do, but instead it was taken as a threat.

[Inst]

There was a lot of static going on about lax Russian nuclear security. Was it overblown the entire time, or has the situation improved significantly? And if it was Russia that let things through, one nuke is one nuke. China can't retaliate via conventional weapons, in a nuclear exchange China would be decimated. Economically, China would go into turmoil, so what's the point of cutting off sanctions?

About the billion angry Chinese, what could the Chinese do to hurt Al Qaeda?

[Officer of Engineers]

There was a lot of static going on about lax Russian nuclear security. Was it overblown the entire time, or has the situation improved significantly?

Their bean counters are just as anal as ours. The Commander, WABpilot, and I have this discussion before. The allegations came from a former Soviet General/Siberian governor about missing suitcase nukes. If they were missing, they're long pas their shelf life and are now ineffective.

About the billion angry Chinese, what could the Chinese do to hurt Al Qaeda?

A Chinese army doing a Chechnya to Afghanistan and Pakistan's Tribal areas.