Russia Profile: Who will be Putin's successor?
By Peter Lavelle
Published on June 27, 2005
This article was written for Russia Profile
Contributors: Dale Herspring, Ethan Burger, Ira Straus, Patrick Armstrong, Harry Bucknall, Donald Jensen, Vlad Sobell, and Vladimir Frolov
Peter Lavelle: Even though Russia’s next presidential election is in 2008, the political classes have literally numbered Putin’s days in office. Just like any other second term president and constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term, Vladimir Putin is a lame duck.
Mainstream Western media and a few unpredictable Russian spin-doctors enjoy spinning the possibility that through hook or crook, Putin (and his inner circle) will either change the constitution or incite an artificial crisis to hang on to powersomehow. In this regard there is a lot of heat, but little light.
Thus, given that political opposition to the Kremlin is fragmented (and possibility set to become even more fragmented), Putin’s successor most probably will be a compromise candidate agreed upon by the ruling elite.
Naming a name is certainly welcomed, but the profile of this candidate is probably far more interesting. Who should we be looking for? An economic manager? A regional governor with hands-on experience? Someone with government experience with a background in the security forces? What other credentials are important?
Lastly, how likely is the Kremlin’s candidate will be someone like Putin was in 1999 – a dark horse?
Dale Herspring, professor of political science, Kansas State University:
I doubt that anyone, including Putin has figured out the answer to this one and probably won't for a couple of years. Having said that, I suspect that Putin will want someone like himself -- at least in a broad sense. By that I mean that he will be looking for someone who generally fits the following characteristics:
1. A pragmatist. He does not want an ideologue of whatever variety. KGB types were far less ideological than we often assumed, and Putin is certainly not an idealogical type.
2. Someone who is flexible. As he showed vis-a-vis Ukraine, Putin "goes with the flow." He adapts to the situation as he sees it.
3. Diplomatic skill. As he has shown in dealing both with the United States and Europe, Putin has the personal skills to get along with individuals who have different points of view -- even when they disagree.
4. An organization man. Putin was raised in a bureaucracy and he has tried to run Russia like one big, centralized bureaucracy. He likes order and discipline, even if he seldom gets either of the foregoing.
5. He will favor someone who is an incrementalist. Putin has not tried to do everything at once, and I suspect he will be suspicious of anyone who comes across as a revolutionary, rather than an evolutionary politician.
6. He is a nationalist, but not a super-patriot.
7. While Putin certainly does not come across as a prude, I find it hard to see him selecting a "hell raiser," or a "good old boy."
So where does this leave us? With nothing but a general notion, Putin will obviously want someone who will follow the main outlines of his policies. I can't imagine him appointing someone who wants to decentralize or who wants to follow a hard line in dealing with the United States. He will tend to favor a person who is flexible and diplomatic. He will probably also favor someone who comes from a bureaucratic background and favors a gradualist approach to reform -- albeit that individual will have to be committed to reform at least as Putin understands the concept.
Anyone come to mind? Obviously, to me at least, Sergei Ivanov is the leading candidate. The issue, as Peter has suggested, is whether or not he will have enough strength within the political system. Personally, I think concerns over Putin's strength are overdrawn. He is firmly in the driver's seat in spite of problems with monetarization and other flaps. If he wants someone, given his strength in the Duma and the centralized Russian system, I think he will get him. Whether the person he chooses will be able to hold on to the position is another question.
Ethan S. Burger, Esq., scholar-in-residence, School of International Service, American University, Washington:
When trying to understand Russian “politics” one must appreciate the role of interest groups in the country. Except for the cognoscenti, few people outside of St. Petersburg had even heard of Vladimir Putin in 1997. I have utilized an outline to set forth alternative future scenarios.
Untimely Thoughts: Russia Profile: Who will be Putin's successor? for the rest of the article.
Well, gentlemen, what do you think will happen? Does the opposition have a last shot at the upcoming elections? Does Putin need to stay to complete the reforms he started? Will the new successor radically change the course of action? Will he be competent enough with the huge pile of work that presidency of Russia is?
A lot of questions can be asked, and I assume that some of those are left to be asked later on in the discussion. Until then, carry on!
By Peter Lavelle
Published on June 27, 2005
This article was written for Russia Profile
Contributors: Dale Herspring, Ethan Burger, Ira Straus, Patrick Armstrong, Harry Bucknall, Donald Jensen, Vlad Sobell, and Vladimir Frolov
Peter Lavelle: Even though Russia’s next presidential election is in 2008, the political classes have literally numbered Putin’s days in office. Just like any other second term president and constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term, Vladimir Putin is a lame duck.
Mainstream Western media and a few unpredictable Russian spin-doctors enjoy spinning the possibility that through hook or crook, Putin (and his inner circle) will either change the constitution or incite an artificial crisis to hang on to powersomehow. In this regard there is a lot of heat, but little light.
Thus, given that political opposition to the Kremlin is fragmented (and possibility set to become even more fragmented), Putin’s successor most probably will be a compromise candidate agreed upon by the ruling elite.
Naming a name is certainly welcomed, but the profile of this candidate is probably far more interesting. Who should we be looking for? An economic manager? A regional governor with hands-on experience? Someone with government experience with a background in the security forces? What other credentials are important?
Lastly, how likely is the Kremlin’s candidate will be someone like Putin was in 1999 – a dark horse?
Dale Herspring, professor of political science, Kansas State University:
I doubt that anyone, including Putin has figured out the answer to this one and probably won't for a couple of years. Having said that, I suspect that Putin will want someone like himself -- at least in a broad sense. By that I mean that he will be looking for someone who generally fits the following characteristics:
1. A pragmatist. He does not want an ideologue of whatever variety. KGB types were far less ideological than we often assumed, and Putin is certainly not an idealogical type.
2. Someone who is flexible. As he showed vis-a-vis Ukraine, Putin "goes with the flow." He adapts to the situation as he sees it.
3. Diplomatic skill. As he has shown in dealing both with the United States and Europe, Putin has the personal skills to get along with individuals who have different points of view -- even when they disagree.
4. An organization man. Putin was raised in a bureaucracy and he has tried to run Russia like one big, centralized bureaucracy. He likes order and discipline, even if he seldom gets either of the foregoing.
5. He will favor someone who is an incrementalist. Putin has not tried to do everything at once, and I suspect he will be suspicious of anyone who comes across as a revolutionary, rather than an evolutionary politician.
6. He is a nationalist, but not a super-patriot.
7. While Putin certainly does not come across as a prude, I find it hard to see him selecting a "hell raiser," or a "good old boy."
So where does this leave us? With nothing but a general notion, Putin will obviously want someone who will follow the main outlines of his policies. I can't imagine him appointing someone who wants to decentralize or who wants to follow a hard line in dealing with the United States. He will tend to favor a person who is flexible and diplomatic. He will probably also favor someone who comes from a bureaucratic background and favors a gradualist approach to reform -- albeit that individual will have to be committed to reform at least as Putin understands the concept.
Anyone come to mind? Obviously, to me at least, Sergei Ivanov is the leading candidate. The issue, as Peter has suggested, is whether or not he will have enough strength within the political system. Personally, I think concerns over Putin's strength are overdrawn. He is firmly in the driver's seat in spite of problems with monetarization and other flaps. If he wants someone, given his strength in the Duma and the centralized Russian system, I think he will get him. Whether the person he chooses will be able to hold on to the position is another question.
Ethan S. Burger, Esq., scholar-in-residence, School of International Service, American University, Washington:
When trying to understand Russian “politics” one must appreciate the role of interest groups in the country. Except for the cognoscenti, few people outside of St. Petersburg had even heard of Vladimir Putin in 1997. I have utilized an outline to set forth alternative future scenarios.
Untimely Thoughts: Russia Profile: Who will be Putin's successor? for the rest of the article.
Well, gentlemen, what do you think will happen? Does the opposition have a last shot at the upcoming elections? Does Putin need to stay to complete the reforms he started? Will the new successor radically change the course of action? Will he be competent enough with the huge pile of work that presidency of Russia is?
A lot of questions can be asked, and I assume that some of those are left to be asked later on in the discussion. Until then, carry on!
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