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  • Redrawn Middle East

    This map has been highly circulated in an article titled Blood Borders. Are there any merits to this proposed redrawing of the Middle Eastern map?

    Blood borders
    How a better Middle East would look
    By Ralph Peters

    International borders are never completely just. But the degree of injustice they inflict upon those whom frontiers force together or separate makes an enormous difference — often the difference between freedom and oppression, tolerance and atrocity, the rule of law and terrorism, or even peace and war.

    The most arbitrary and distorted borders in the world are in Africa and the Middle East. Drawn by self-interested Europeans (who have had sufficient trouble defining their own frontiers), Africa's borders continue to provoke the deaths of millions of local inhabitants. But the unjust borders in the Middle East — to borrow from Churchill — generate more trouble than can be consumed locally.

    While the Middle East has far more problems than dysfunctional borders alone — from cultural stagnation through scandalous inequality to deadly religious extremism — the greatest taboo in striving to understand the region's comprehensive failure isn't Islam but the awful-but-sacrosanct international boundaries worshipped by our own diplomats.
    Read the rest of the article here: ARMED FORCES JOURNAL - Blood borders - June 2006
    Attached Files
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  • #2
    Totally unrealistic. He doesn't really take into account of history, economic, and socio-economic data.

    One example, if Baluchistan was to get its own state, there would be no Pakistan. Instead it would break up and eventually reemerge back to India. For instance, Pakistan punjab would merge back into Indian Punjab.

    Afganistan would never be a country but split up into several countries with each country dominated by Pashtuns, Uzbeks, etc.

    Comment


    • #3
      Most of the map is unrealistic -- there is no way to accomplish any of these border changes. I find the Saudi depiction to be quite interesting... the Islamic Sacred State governed by a rotating council of Muslim scholars from around the world.
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

      Comment


      • #4
        As I've always said about Ralph Peters, I more so agree with his sentiment, rather than any predictions or suggestions of his.
        In Iran people belive pepsi stands for pay each penny save israel. -urmomma158
        The Russian Navy is still a threat, but only to those unlucky enough to be Russian sailors.-highsea

        Comment


        • #5
          This map is FAR beyond being overly optimistic.

          1) Arab Shia state. A) Saudi-Arabia is doing anything necessary to hold this area, since it has about 240 billion barrels of oil. In order this area might be separated from Saudi-Arabia, it needs US invasion to Saudi-Arabia and that might not be enough also, since that area, even it has Shia tribes, it has also large amount, perhaps 30-50% Sunni Arab population (lika Dammam, biggest city of the region with 70% Sunni). They would do anything possible to cling into Saudi-Arabia.

          B) Iran. In order that Khuzestan province and these other areas, which has huge amount of oil and gas resources, about 50% of all Iran to join into Shia Arab state, Iran has to be attacked. Iran is ready to quell any uprising in this area. And even after that Iran is doing aggressive re-localization policy in the area. And the result is that Khuzestan has about 30% Persians, maybe 60% Arabs and 10% others. And again those 30% Persians would not want Khuzestan to join any other country, than Iran. And among Arab Shias there is also strong support to stay as part of Iran. So even to get majority of people wanting independence in this province is a problem.

          And just to remind, how hard it would be to defeat Iran. If USA would ever attack Iran, it would be in two-prolonged guerrilla-modern warfare also with revolutionary corps taking every Irani major city as a battle ground with US forces along with every conquired city having excessive amount of insurgency, probably similar to that of Ramadi and Fallujah of Iraq. And Iraqi Shias would stand against USA, if it attacked against Iran.

          When US attacked Iraq, they made pre arrangements that there will not be battle. That is how they managed to take Iraq, had Iraqi army defended themselves, US losses would have been too extensive. And in insurgency they faced mainly only less, than 4 million people, Sunni Arabs. If there would be similar fight in Iran, USA would have to deal with insurgency from base of about 70-80 million people (Iraqi Shias and all Iran) along with Irani revolutionary corps and Basij, which would make probably in war against US above 2 million soldiers.

          Important thing to understand in any incursion of USA against Iran is that even Iran has big opposition. It is not Ateist-opposition, but very much Shia-Muslim opposition with many Shia clerics being it's leaders. And their leader, Mir Hussein Musawi defends Iranian nuclear program. If Iran was attacked by USA, the Irani opposition would not consider US armed forces as liberators, but as invaders. And in any armed attack against Iran USA would absolutely be poised against very popular insurgency. Since they would promise paradise for anyone, who would die in such a war.

          US aerial attack would not destroy Iran, it would just make the government stronger and Iran nuclear program is too big to be destroyed. If US would not be able to destroy Iran, the world, including Europe would consider it invader. So large aerial attack against Iran would be political and military victory for Iran. Small aerial attack only against nuclear program would possibly lead Irani retaliation against Tel Aviv and most definitely lead to retaliation against US resources all over the world, possibly political standoff with disrupted oil supply from middle east. And it would lead Irani nuclear program going underground and make them determined to gain nuclear weapons.

          Land attack against Iran would be a disaster. USA weakness in war is well known everywhere. If they get too much casualties, they leave. Under such circumstances I see 0% probability of successful US land attack against Iran. It would be street to street fight with HUGE country with massive army and insurgency. Such attack would probably lead to millions of civilian casualties.

          And above all, not Kuwait, not Turkey and not Iraq, or Pakistan would give their country as a staging point for such an attack. USA would need to use ships. Any country, which USA has bases in, if USA used them to attack Iran, they would demand USA to leave their military forces from there. It is huge political risk for any Middle-East country to attack Iran. Especially Bahrain (biggest US base in the area) with 70% Shia majority. Turkmenistan gave US bases only by Russian consent to attack Afghanistan, but would not do the same for Iran.

          Any scenario of US attack would probably be that they would try to take strait of Hormuz, simply stage aerial campaign, try to destroy as much of Iranian nuclear program and possibly army, as they could. But US generals would never try to conquer Iran by land. They would only try to cause as much damage to Iranian government, as possible and end it to a stalemate.

          So to get Arab Shia Republic, USA would need to attack Iran AND Saudi-Arabia at the same time. I think, this whole state is not possible considering Iran and Saudi-Arabian intresses in the area. And the outcome of such attack would probably be that Shia-republic joining with Iran, which would probably buy Iranian Islamic clerics another 20 years in power and they would get massive amount of oil resources into their control. US sanctions could after that do even less harm to Iran.

          2) Then Kurdistan. First of all, Syrian Assad regime would never give up Kurdistan of Syria. And they have necessary firepower to hold into that area. Also Turkey would be reluctant to give up their areas. And Iran would need to be attacked and militarily defeated to make them give up Irani Kurdistan, which also has oil. So it again would For this idea USA would need to defeat Iran militarily, which is close to impossible. Iran can not be defeated from air and to defeat Iran by land USA would have to be ready to losses somewhat similar to that of Vietnam war and along with it be prepared to pay trillions of dollars. USA would be in Iran with Hezbollah-style and structure insurgency, which however would have perhaps about 100 times more manpower, than Hezbollah of Libanon. Who is saying that USA will walk into Iran just like they walked into Iraq and Afghanistan is just dreaming.

          3) The idea of Afghan Persians joining to Iran is as well absurd. That is, because Afghan Persians are Sunni and Iranian Persians are Shia. Only thing in common with them is the language. But Afghan Persians are better off in Afghanistan of today, than in Iran and until today there is none whatsoever movements of Afghani Persians joining with Iran. And Pashto (the tribe in the map) - Afghanistan is absurd for the same reason.

          4) To take Balochistan you would have to attack Pakistan, which is absurd. Pakistan has army of 800000 men, which is very organized. Irani Balochistan and Sistan would want to leave Iran, but that is not possible without attack on Iran. And Pakistani Balotchistan has gas and other natural resources, which Pakistan would not want to give up without defeat in war.

          5) Saudi slicing, as it did must be a joke. There would be no sacred republic. If Saudi were to be divided, it would divide into Shia east and Sunni west. But there is no political will whatsoever for any part of Saudi-Arabia to join with Yemen. Or to make Saudi-Arabia into two, sacred lands and Arab Republic. Also there is no historical, cultural, etc reason why Hijaz would possibly join with Jordan, as it did in this imaginary map.

          6) Syria would not give up to Kurd parts of the country and coastal border, except by war.

          To achieve this US would have to attack at least four countries and it would need massive civil war in Pakistan. And after this, the whole area would be one huge breeding ground for insurgencies like Al-Qaeda, since creation of a map like this would need massive wars and destruction in the region.

          This is a dream map, which is not possible to attain. I don't see, how any of these new countries in the map would be possible, or probable. Some people in these areas have will to form their own countries, but this is not Balkan and Yugoslavia.

          Kurds in Iraq might have the power to gain their independence. But if they did that, they would have hostile Turkey in the North with their own Kurd problem, hostile Iran in the east, hostile Iraq in the South and hostile Syria in the west. So even they are far more likely to accept political autonomy for their region and concessions rather, than trying to gamble over bigger Kurd republic in the area. Such Kurd state would be both politically and economically isolated and probably sanctioned by nearby states, which would lead to isolation and vast problems. Kurds of Iraq are far more likely to accept what they have, than trying to gamble against the whole region.

          Comment


          • #6
            Janne_84 Reply

            Now you've done it. We don't necro-post here. You've done so. Kitties have died because of you-
            Attached Files
            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

            Comment


            • #7
              An entire tirade, and not one word about Israel... I'm disappointed...
              Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

              Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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              • #8
                Attention wh...beep
                Those who know don't speak
                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hey, it's what one comes to expect with Middle East tirades
                  Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                  Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    OK, I'll take the bait. One reason Israel wasn't mentioned is becuase she needs no help in redrawing maps. Every time the world blinks a new edition of this is historically Israel map appears. The changes are usually subtle but over time you see israel slowly spreading through the area supposedly reserved for the Palestinians. South Africa had black reservations but as far as I know left them alone. The US had Indian reservations but when they seized them they moved the Indians to another reservation. The only thing comparable to what Israel is doing in Palestine are the old European Ghettos. A fact attested by a number of Holocaust survivors who have come forward to denounce what Israel is doing.

                    Think about that Ben, holocaust survivors they bought you a country with the blood and tears of their murdered families and years of tortured imprisonment. yet are they the voice of Israel? No they are the wingnuts in heavily fortified camps are- they control Israel as the new boycott law shows. The law doesn't just make it illegal to boycott Israel, but settlement projects as well- its extortion- buy from else or we allege you are boycotting us.

                    Never mind that the settlements are an economic albatross for Israel- an Israel a nation on the dole is now having sit ins becuase the people in Israel are not getting as much dole as the settlers. How much free rent could your nation provide if it wasn't spending $26 billion a year on maintaining the settlements? Whats even worse is what the settlements have done to Israel's image. They have through the brutalization of the Palestinians re-awakened European antisemitism.

                    that enough of a tirade for you?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Zraver Reply

                      "Ghettos...Holocaust survivors

                      ...blood and tears...murdered families...tortured imprisonment...wingnuts...extortion...

                      ...economic albatross...on the dole...brutalization...European antisemitism....

                      ...that enough of a tirade for you?"


                      Geez Zraver, I thought you were REALLY going to go off? Let's see the really good stuff you're holding back.
                      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by S2 View Post

                        Geez Zraver, I thought you were REALLY going to go off? Let's see the really good stuff you're holding back.
                        You mean like how the the hard right in Israel has corrupted and polluted a truly magnificient religion? The Iranians are always going on about Cyrus and human and rights and claim is the first humanitarian but he's not. We see examples of the value of human life in the Torah that are far older. Joseph setting up a feeding program in Egypt for example. The visitors might have been his brothers, but the fact remains that Egypt opened her stores in a time of a 7 year drought becuase a man loved god and loved his fellow man. Today in Gaza which might be the very place Joseph was sold into slavery the doors are closed and the decendents of Jospeh are acting like his brothers did to him- only towards the decendents of Ishmael.

                        Where would Israel be if an Egyptian had not taken in Moses? That example of the power of a single act of kindness goes unheeded by those who claim in part to be governed by the laws set down by the man that baby floating down the river became. In ancient Israel the feilds were square but the harvest was done in a circle so that the corners would be left to feed the poor. However today the poor Palestinians don't even get the corners, instead thier feilds and orchards get cut and burned. Joshua might agree with what modern Israel is doing, but I don't think Abraham would. Nor many of the other patriachs come to that. The humanism inherent in Judaism didn't come about by accident, just like whats happening in the occupied territories is no accident.

                        Modern Israeli right wing zionism is a peversion of every good thing the Jews have gifted mankind with.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Zraver Reply

                          "...However today the poor Palestinians don't even get the corners, instead thier feilds and orchards get cut and burned..."

                          Gosh. That's awful.

                          Palestinian militants ransack former Gush Katif greenhouses - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

                          I sure hope those poor Palestinians don't starve-

                          New government policy brings more goods to Gaza June-2010

                          Guess Moses knows how to extend the dole from one hand to another. Lot of folks on the dole these days, eh?

                          Good to know you'd be following God's law and turning your cheek when 10,000 rockets and mortar shells land on your neighborhoods in Arkansas.

                          Me? I'd let them fcukin' starve.:)
                          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by S2 View Post
                            "...However today the poor Palestinians don't even get the corners, instead thier feilds and orchards get cut and burned..."

                            Gosh. That's awful.

                            Palestinian militants ransack former Gush Katif greenhouses - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
                            ISRAEL

                            Jerusalem (AsiaNews/Agencies) – Attacks by Jewish settlers on West Bank farmland and crops increased in June, a report released by the Palestinian Authority has shown.

                            In the first week of June, settlers burnt 350 trees near Nablus, 20 grape vines in Hebron and uprooted 40 grape vines in Bait Ummar village as well as destroyed many hectares of farmland and more than 1,000 olive trees. "These attacks are part of a campaign to terrorise Palestinian farmers and their families," the report said.

                            Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said he was unaware of any statistics indicating a rise in violence in the West Bank. "Any reports of violence, whether by settlers or by Palestinians, is investigated and dealt with after an official complaint is received," he said.

                            However, annual figures compiled by the Israeli rights group Yesh Din about complaints of settler offences have repeatedly shown that nine out of ten police investigations fail to lead to a prosecution.

                            New government policy brings more goods to Gaza June-2010

                            Guess Moses knows how to extend the dole from one hand to another. Lot of folks on the dole these days, eh?
                            Funny, it took years of international reports and expose' to get them to send in enough food to avert a true disaster and now they want credit for doing what they should have been doing all along. Oh, and they ain't footing the bill for that aid either.

                            Good to know you'd be following God's law and turning your cheek when 10,000 rockets and mortar shells land on your neighborhoods in Arkansas.
                            I wouldn't be embargoing toys.... For years Israel has engaged in collective punishment which is both illegal and self defeating. If you treat people like animals they will become animals. The election of Hamas was so very predictable given Israeli actions to undermine the PA before the elections. Hamas is a vile group yet they are the ones who offered a 10 year truce and got rejected. Israel chose war- a war she fights dirty. WP rounds in apartment complex court yards, missiles into crowded markets, human shields..... If our troops in A-stan did those things they would go to jail. A war crime is a war crime and Israel is as dirty as Hamas in that department.

                            Me? I'd let them fcukin' starve.:)
                            Israel tried that but lacked the courage of thier convictions and backed off. The politcal ideology running Israel rioght now is pretty dammed clear about what they want. The only thing holding them back is the international community. They have all but silenced the left in Israel as regards the Palestinians. If you compare the movements of the 30's to modern zionism the shared slogans, similar goals and tactics are terrifying.

                            "The Partition of Palestine is illegal. It will never be recognized .... Jerusalem was and will for ever be our capital. Eretz Israel will be restored to the people of Israel. All of it. And for Ever."
                            -- Menachem Begin, the day after the U.N. vote to partition Palestine.

                            vs

                            It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe, but it is the claim from which I will not recede and which, God-willing, I will make good.
                            Adolf Hitler
                            Referring to The Sudetenland, speech at Berlin Sportpalast September 1938

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Noooo,not another Hitler argument.:insane: :bang: :puck:

                              Z,does it changes the fact that perfectly good houses and farms were ruined when Ariel Sharon pulled the settlers back?1000 trees cut,sad and certainly a big loss for the owner.If it doesn't gets investigated even more sad and unjust(presuming it's true).But the real deal is that Palestinians as a whole can't manage crap and they certainly aren't too interested.

                              Btw,isn't it 1938 all over again?We should not appease the aggressors.The Holocaust must never be repeated.I say we send the whole NATO to bomb Israel.
                              Those who know don't speak
                              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                              Comment

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