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  • GEN McCaffrey's Trip Reports

    GEN McCaffrey's latest trip report to Iraq has been published on his website, BR McCaffrey Associates LLC. I've included all four of his Iraq trip reports as well as attachments.

    Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
    March 26, 2007
    MEMORANDUM FOR: Colonel Michael Meese Professor and Head Dept of Social Sciences
    CC: Colonel Cindy Jebb Professor and Deputy Head Dept of Social Sciences SUBJECT: After Action Report—General Barry R McCaffrey USA (Ret) VISIT IRAQ AND KUWAIT 9-16 March 2007

    1. PURPOSE: This memo provides feedback on my strategic and operational assessment of security operations in both Iraq and Kuwait in support of US Central Command. Look forward to providing lectures to the Faculty Seminar and National Security Seminar during upcoming visit on 4 April 2007.

    2. SOURCES: A. Iraq: 1.) Gen David Petraeus. MNF-I CG: One-on-one Exit Briefing. Working dinner. One-on-one in-brief office call. 2.) Chargé (DCM) Ambassador Daniel Speckhard. 3.) LTG Raymond Odierno: Commander Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I). 4.) LTG Graeme Lamb. (UK) DCG of Multi-National Force – Iraq (MNF-I): One-on-one Office Call. 5.) LTG Marty Dempsey. (MNSTC-I) CG: Briefings. “Developing the Iraqi Army and Police.” Working lunch. 6.) Senior Special Operations General Officer. OCF-I CG: Update on Direct Action – Counter Terrorism. 7.) MG Randy Mixon. Multi-National Division – North (MND-N) CG 25th Infantry Division: Office Call. Working supper. TOC Briefing. (Tikrit). 8.) MG Thomas Moore, USMC. Multi-National Force – Iraq (MNF-I) Chief of Staff: Office Call. 9.) MG Walter Gaskins, USMC. Multi-National Division West. (Marines. Fallujah) (MNF-W) Commander Ground Combat Element. Fallujah: Working lunch. Intelligence assessment briefing. Long term assessment briefing. 10.) GO Briefings. MG Dave Fastaband, MG Kurt Cichowski (DCS SPA), MG Bill Caldwell, MG Skip Scott, (UK) BG Baverstock (DDCS SPA): General officer seminar/tutorial. “The Situation in Iraq.” 11.) American Embassy Baghdad Country Team Briefing – AMB Speckhard, AMB Joe Saloom (Director of IRMO), AMB Tim Carney (Economic Coordinator), BG Mike Walsh (Gulf Region Division Corps of Engineers), Mr. Dan Weygandt (ECON Counselor), Dr. Terry Kelly (JSPA): Meeting/Briefings. 12.) MG Jack Gardner. Commander. US Detention Facility -- Iraqi Detainees: Staff briefings. Intelligence and detainee operations. 13.) MG Joe Fils. CG Multi-National Division-Baghdad (MND-B): Office call. 14.) BG Vince Brooks. (ADC-O) and Division Battle Staff. 1st Cav Div. (MND-B): Battle Staff Briefing. 15.) BG Steve Anderson. MNF-I (R&S): Dinner/Discussions. Coalition logistics. 16.) BG Dana Pittard. CG, Iraq Assistance Group. “Creating the Iraqi Security Forces.” 17.) COL Pete Forman, Chief-of-staff. Briefing---“Embedded Training Teams.” 18.) Visit – Joint US-Iraqi HQs. West Baghdad. Briefings. Baghdad Security. MAJ Gen. ---CG. 6th Iraqi Army Division MAJ Gen. ---CG. 2nd National Police Division MAJ Gen. ---CG. Iraqi KAC. COL Britt, MET Chief COL Griese, 1st Cav Div. (ISF G3 Chief) 19.) Commander -- CJSOTF-AP: Special Forces support of Iraqi operations. (Balad). 20.) 13th Sustainment Command (Balad). Logistics support for the coalition. Working breakfast: COL Crissy Gayagas. Dep CMD. COL David Cotter. Chief-of-Staff. COL Gregg Gross. Distribution. COL Glenn Grothe. G-3. 21.) COL Burton. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 1st Inf. Div: Visit Command Post. Baghdad security operations. 22.) COL Mike Kershaw. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 10th Mountain Division: Visit Command Post. Baghdad security operations. 23.) LTC -- Intelligence: Working breakfast – “The Enemy Situation.” 24.) Military Police Major. Working breakfast. - “Detainee Operations.” 25.) Mr. Michael von der Schulenburg. UN Representative to Iraq (Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General, SRSG: Two hour office call. “The political situation in Iraq.” 26.) USAID Briefings. US Embassy-- Green Zone. Ms. Hilda Arellano and Mr. Mike Harvey: USAID Country Development Plan. 27.) Mr. Derek Harvey (CIOC): Meeting. 28.) MAJ John Atkins. Mr. Brian McLaughlin. Mr. Anthony Garcia: Briefing on ISF Readiness. 29.) COL Murray. LTC Jeff McDougall (C3 Plans). COL John Orourke (Dep C3). MAJ O. Ken Straller (C3 Plans). COL Martin Wilson (Chief Plans and Policy). MAJ James Powell (Campaign Planner): MNC-I Plans. 30.) Asymmetric Warfare Group -- MAJ Blake Conners (TRP CDR). Matt Dennis (opso). Kevin Corbit (Field Team). Mike Campbell (TRP SRG). Dana Guy. James Kramas: Working Dinner. B. Kuwait: 1.) Ambassador Richard Lebaron. Kuwait: Working breakfast. (Plus DCM, DAO, Dep CDR OMC-K) 2.) LTG Steve Whitcomb, USA. Commander 3rd Army. Camp Arifjan, Kuwait. 3.) MG Dennis Hardy. DCG. 3rd US Army: Office Call/Briefing. “The support concept for US Forces Iraq and Afghanistan.” 4.) BG Sam Thompson, USA (Ret): President MPRI Corp. Kuwait. 5.) BG Joe Martz: Camp Beuhring. Udari Range. “Final training – pre-entry to Iraq.” 6.) BG Mark Solo, USAF. Chief, OMC-K: “The situation in Kuwait.” 7.) Colonel David Cordon. Vice Chief, OMC-K: Briefing. “The Kuwait Armed Forces.” 8.) LTC Robert Friedenburg. Chief. Defense Attaché Office: Briefing – “The situation in Kuwait.” 9.) General Officer/Senior Leader Working Dinner. Briefing—“US Forces in Kuwait.” Camp Arifjan.

    3. THE PROBLEM:

    These are the facts.

    Iraq is ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighters (500+) --- and a couple of thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians. Thousands of attacks target US Military Forces (2900 IED’s) a month---primarily stand off attacks with IED’s, rockets, mortars, snipers, and mines from both Shia (EFP attacks are a primary casualty producer) ---and Sunni (85% of all attacks---80% of US deaths—16% of Iraqi population.)

    Three million Iraqis are internally displaced or have fled the country to Syria and Jordan. The technical and educated elites are going into self-imposed exile---a huge brain drain that imperils the ability to govern. The Maliki government has little credibility among the Shia populations from which it emerged. It is despised by the Sunni as a Persian surrogate. It is believed untrustworthy and incompetent by the Kurds.

    There is no function of government that operates effectively across the nation--- not health care, not justice, not education, not transportation, not labor and commerce, not electricity, not oil production. There is no province in the country in which the government has dominance. The government cannot spend its own money effectively. ($7.1 billion sits in New York banks.) No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi---without heavily armed protection.

    The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings. There is no effective nation-wide court system. There are in general almost no acceptable Iraqi penal institutions. The population is terrorized by rampant criminal gangs involved in kidnapping, extortion, robbery, rape, massive stealing of public property ---such as electrical lines, oil production material, government transportation, etc. (Saddam released 80,000 criminal prisoners.)

    The Iraqi Army is too small, very badly equipped (inadequate light armor, junk Soviet small arms, no artillery, no helicopters to speak of, currently no actual or planned ground attack aircraft of significance, no significant air transport assets (only three C-130’s), no national military logistics system, no national military medical system, etc. The Iraqi Army is also unduly dominated by the Shia, and in many battalions lacks discipline. There is no legal authority to punish Iraqi soldiers or police who desert their comrades. (The desertion/AWOL numbers frequently leave Iraqi Army battalions at 50% strength or less.)

    In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh Merga, AQI, 1920’s Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations. Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and Shia) support armed attacks on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold 27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+) --- the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up--- not down--- as they incur these staggering battle losses.

    US domestic support for the war in Iraq has evaporated and will not return. The great majority of the country thinks the war was a mistake. The US Congress now has a central focus on constraining the Administration use of military power in Iraq ---and potentially Iran. The losses of US Army, Marine, and Special Operations Force casualties in Iraq now exceed 27,000 killed and wounded. (Note: The Iraqi Security Forces have suffered more than 49,000 casualties in the last 14 months.) The war costs $9 Billion per month. Stateside US Army and Marine Corps readiness ratings are starting to unravel. Ground combat equipment is shot in both the active and reserve components. Army active and reserve component recruiting has now encountered serious quality and number problems. In many cases we are forced to use US contractors to substitute for required military functions. (128,000 contractors in Iraq---includes more than 2000 armed security personnel.) Waivers in US Army recruiting standards for: moral turpitude, drug use, medical issues, criminal justice records, and non-high school graduation have gone up significantly. We now are enlisting 42 year old first term soldiers. Our promotion rates for officers and NCOs have skyrocketed to replace departing leaders. There is no longer a national or a theater US Army strategic reserve. (Fortunately, powerful US Naval, Air Force, and nuclear capabilities command huge deterrence credibility.)

    We are at the “knee of the curve.” Two million+ troops of the smallest active Army force since WWII have served in the war zone. Some active units have served three, four, or even five combat deployments. We are now routinely extending nearly all combat units in both Iraq and Afghanistan. These combat units are being returned to action in some cases with only 7-12 months of stateside time to re-train and re-equip. The current deployment requirement of 20+ brigades to Iraq and 2+ brigades in Afghanistan is not sustainable.

    We will be forced to call up as many as nine National Guard combat brigades for an involuntary second combat tour this coming year. (Dr Chu at DOD has termed this as “no big deal.”) Many believe that this second round of involuntary call-ups will topple the weakened National Guard structure--- which is so central to US domestic security. The National Guard Bureau has argued for a call up of only 12 months instead of 18 months. This misses the point—DOD will without fail be forced to also extend these National Guard brigades in combat at the last minute given the continuation of the current emergency situation.

    Iraq’s neighbors are a problem--- not part of the solution (with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). They provide little positive political or economic support to the Maliki government.

    Our allies are leaving to include the courageous and well equipped Brit’s—by January 2008 we will be largely on our own.

    In summary, the US Armed Forces are in a position of strategic peril. A disaster in Iraq will in all likelihood result in a widened regional struggle which will endanger America’s strategic interests (oil) in the Mid-east for a generation. We will also produce another generation of soldiers who lack confidence in their American politicians, the media, and their own senior military leadership.

    4. THE CURRENT SITUATION:

    This is the situation.

    Since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National Force Iraq--- the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved.

    1st: The Maliki government has given the green light to prune out elements of the renegade Sadr organization in Baghdad. More than 600+ rogue leaders have been harvested by US and Iraqi special operations forces with the explicit or tacit consent of the government. Sadr himself has fled to Iran and many of his key leaders have escaped to the safety of the Shia south. His fighting cadres were ordered to go to ground, hide their weapons, take down their check points, stop the terrible ethnic cleansing and terror tactics against the Sunni population, and ignore (not cooperate) with US and ISF forces.

    2nd: The US and Iraqi Forces have now dramatically changed their operational scheme. More then 50+ Iraqi Police/Army and US Army Joint Security Stations (JSS) are now being emplaced across the city and extended into the suburbs. The pre-operation planning and rehearsals were superb. The presence of these joint military elements is now becoming ubiquitous across the urban areas. Although many of these small outposts have been attacked—none has yet been seriously jeopardized. The Iraqi people are encouraged ---life is almost immediately springing back in many parts of the city. The murder rate has plummeted. IED attacks on US forces during their formerly vulnerable daily transits from huge US bases on the periphery of Baghdad are down--- since these forces are now permanently based in their operational area.

    3rd: The Iraqis have finally committed credible numbers of integrated Police and Army units to the battle of Baghdad. The strength of IA, IP, and NP units has steadily gone up aided by clever monetary and troop leader incentives. The ISF formations are showing increased willingness to aggressively operate against insurgent/militia forces. Although there is continuing political interference by politicians of both the Iraqi Administration and legislators--- this is clearly a serious urban security operation.

    4th: There is a real and growing ground swell of Sunni tribal opposition to the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq terror formations. (90% Iraqi.) This counter-Al Qaeda movement in Anbar Province was fostered by brilliant US Marine leadership. There is now unmistakable evidence that the western Sunni tribes are increasingly convinced that they blundered badly by sitting out the political process. They are also keenly aware of the fragility of the continued US military presence that stands between them and a vengeful and overwhelming Shia-Kurdish majority class--- which was brutally treated by Saddam and his cruel regime. There is now active combat between Sunni tribal leadership and AQI terrorists. Of even greater importance, the Sunni tribes are now supplying their young men as drafts for the Iraqi Police. (IP). AQI is responding with customary and sickening violence. Police are beheaded in groups; families of IP officers are murdered (or in one case a 12 year old boy was run over multiple times by a truck in front of his family)—all designed to intimidate the tribes. It is not working. The Takfiri AQI extremism of: no music, no photos, no videos, no cutting of beards, etc does not sit well with the moderate form of Islam practiced among the western tribes. This is a crucial struggle and it is going our way—for now.

    5th: The equipment and resources for the Iraqi Security Forces has increased dramatically. The ISF has planned 2007 expenditures of more than $7.3 billion. The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior are the only two of 27 Iraqi Ministries that have executed their budgets at 90% plus satisfactory rates. (General Petraeus is now putting US military liaison officers in ten additional civilian Ministries to jump start their budget process.) PM Maliki has pushed to create a larger security force of more than 100,000 Iraqi Army troops. Thousands (3500) of armored Humvee’s, Cougar and BTR-80 light wheeled armored vehicles (500+) , and other equipment (3500 RPG’s, 1400 heavy machine guns, 900+ mortars, 80+ helicopters) are now flowing into the force. To my great surprise, the Iraqis are using FMS Sales to execute their capital expenditure program with great effect. This includes transition to all US small arms for M4 Carbine and M16A2 rifle. (They will continue to use Soviet type machine guns.) The ISF training system is beginning to work effectively with their own trainers. (However, there are still requirements for the more than 5000+ US military and contract police trainers). The Iraqi training base is cranking out 24,000 soldiers a year from 5 Regional and two national training bases. More than 12 Police Academies are producing 26,000 new police a year. The end goal will be an Iraqi security force of more than 370,000 Police and Army--- organized in 120 battalions.

    6th: Reconciliation of the internal warring elements in Iraq will be how we eventually win the war in Iraq---if it happens. There is a very sophisticated and carefully integrated approach by the Iraqi government and Coalition actors to defuse the armed violence from internal enemies and bring people into the political process. There are encouraging signs that the peace and participation message does resonate with many of the more moderate Sunni and Shia warring factions. Of course, there is no intent to negotiate with either the extreme Bathist elements or the Al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists. The UK three star Deputy MNF-I Commander – (LTG Graeme Lamb) has done a superb job with this process.

    7th: US Combat forces are simply superb. The Army and Marine brigade, battalion, and company commanders are the most experienced and talented leaders in our history. Re-enlistment rates are simply astonishing. The joint integration of combat power is extremely effective --- but is deemed unremarkable by the involved units. (I found a Marine battalion—with all three of its fighting companies attached from an Army battalion.) These Marine and Army combat units rapidly employ synchronized air and ground combat power, use enormous fire discipline, are compassionate with vulnerable civilians, and move with explosive energy and courage when they pin a target.

    The command and control technology, training, contractor support, and flexibility of Marine and Army combat formations are magnificent. Digital data, integrated feed of all live sensors to include persistent “eyes on target” UAV’s, immediate recovery of data in formats that promote decision-making, and enormous technical competence of battle staff personnel are hallmarks of the system. The downside is that at division and brigade level these C3I command posts are not movable. I do not believe that division or brigade commanders have developed, equipped and rehearsed Assault CP teams. They simply are not prepared to effectively fight a war of maneuver. (For example, against the Syrians or Iranians.)

    The wariness, adherence to ROE, and discipline of the involved air and ground forces are awe-inspiring. I watched with fascination the attack video of an Apache whose pilots held fire at absolutely the last second ---when what they suspected (correctly) was an innocent farmer appeared in the foreground of a pending Hellfire launch against 5-6 armed insurgents. The pilot painstakingly changed his attack angle--- and sailed the Hellfire over the farmer’s head and successfully nailed the insurgents.

    The attention to detail of US Army and Marine units on Entry Control Points (ECP’s) makes me enormously proud as a former combat platoon leader and company commander. Week after week—in unbelievably adverse weather (near freezing to 125 degrees Fahrenheit—the ECP troops man these controlled access areas which require extreme vigilance if their buddies are to be protected. I watched several chilling tapes of the instant death suffered by these brave troops (US or Iraqi) when a suicide bomber actual detonates himself in the position.

    8th: The US Tier One special operations capability is simply magic. They are deadly in getting their target—with normally zero collateral damage—and with minimal friendly losses or injuries. Some of these assault elements have done 200-300 takedown operations at platoon level. The comprehensive intelligence system is phenomenal. We need to re-think how we view these forces. They are a national strategic system akin to a B1 bomber. We need to understand that the required investment level in the creation of these forces demands substantial dedicated UAV systems, intelligence, and communications resources. These special operations formations cannot by themselves win the nation’s wars. However, with them we have a tool of enormous and decisive strategic significance which has crucial importance in the global war on terrorists.

    9th: The US Armed Forces logistic system is successfully providing 100% of required supplies, services, maintenance, medical support, and material for battle. Never in the history of warfare has a military force been more generously and effectively supported than in Iraq. It is also a house of cards. We need a Joint Logistics command. We need to provide additional resource muscle to create a more robust LOC thru Jordan to Iraq. We are overly dependant on civilian contractors. In extreme danger---they will not fight.

    We are overly dependant on Kuwait for logistics. If Iranian military action closed the Persian Gulf—the US combat force in Iraq would immediately begin to suffocate logistically. We cannot depend on a Turkish LOC in the coming five years.

    We need 500 USAF C17’s and the tanker fleet required to support them. The Air Force flew 13,000 truck loads of material into Iraq for pinpoint distribution last year. The two USAF Squadrons of C17’s now in-theater make a gigantic contribution.

    The support of Kuwait has been absolutely vital to our war on terror. The presence of 22,000 US Army Forces, 6000 US contractors, and 1800 Air Force personnel is crucial to the continuation of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf. Kuwait is the lynchpin of the entire logistics effort. We send a thousand trucks a day up into Iraq from Kuwait. It is impressive how effectively we have lowered our signature and footprint in Kuwait. We have come down from twenty-three bases --to four. Camp Arifjan has been reduced in size by more than 1/3rd. We need strong continued diplomatic support and recognition of Kuwait’s courageous support of the war effort.

    5. THE WAY AHEAD:

    In my judgment, we can still achieve our objective of: a stable Iraq, at peace with its neighbors, not producing weapons of mass destruction, and fully committed to a law-based government. The courage and strength of the US Armed Forces still gives us latitude and time to build the economic and political conditions that might defuse the ongoing civil war. Our central purpose is to allow the nation to re-establish governance based on some loose federal consensus among the three major ethnic-factional actors. (Shia, Sunni, Kurd.)

    We have very little time left. This President will have the remainder of his months in office beleaguered by his political opponents to the war. The democratic control of Congress and its vocal opposition can actually provide a helpful framework within which our brilliant new Ambassador Ryan Crocker can maneuver the Maliki administration to understand their diminishing options. It is very unlikely that the US political opposition can constitutionally force the President into retreat. However, our next President will only have 12 months or less to get Iraq straight before he/she is forced to pull the plug. Therefore, our planning horizons should assume that there are less than 36 months remaining of substantial US troop presence in Iraq. The insurgency will continue in some form for a decade. This suggests the fundamental dilemma facing US policymakers.

    The US Armed Forces cannot sustain the current deployment rate. We will leave the nation at risk to other threats from new hostile actors if we shatter the capabilities of our undersized and under-resourced Army, Marine, and special operations forces. The Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs must get Congress to provide emergency levels of resources, manpower, and energy into this rapidly failing system. If we do not aggressively rebuild ---the capability of the force actually deployed in Iraq will also degrade--- and we are likely to encounter a disaster.

    The primary war winning strategy for the United States in the coming 12 months must be for Ambassador Ryan and General Petraeus to focus their considerable personal leadership skills on getting the top 100 Shia and Sunni leaders to walk back from the edge of all-out civil war. Reconciliation is the way out. There will be no imposed military solution with the current non-sustainable US force levels. Military power cannot alone defeat an insurgency—the political and economic struggle for power is the actual field of battle.

    A sufficient but not necessary condition of success is adequate resources to build an Iraqi Army, National Police, local Police, and Border Patrol. We are still in the wrong ball park. The Iraqis need to capacity to jail 150,000 criminals and terrorists. They must have an air force with 150 US helicopters. (The US Armed Forces have 100+ medevac helicopters and 700 lift or attack aircraft in-country.) They need 5000 light armored vehicles for their ten divisions. They need enough precision, radar-assisted counter-battery artillery to suppress the constant mortar and rocket attacks on civilian and military targets. They should have 24 C130’s---and perhaps three squadrons of light ground attack aircraft. I mention these numbers not to be precise—but to give an order of magnitude estimation that refutes our current anemic effort. The ISF have taken horrendous casualties. We must give them the leverage to replace us as our combat formations withdraw in the coming 36 months.

    Finally, we must focus on the creation of a regional dialog led by the Iraqis with US active participation. The diplomatic process in the short run is unlikely to produce useful results. However, in the coming five years---it will be a prerequisite to a successful US military withdrawal ---that we open a neutral and permanent political forum (perhaps in Saudi Arabia) in which Iraq’s neighbors are drawn into continuing cooperative engagement. A regional war would be a disaster for 25 years in the Mid-East. A continuing peace discussion forum may give us the diplomatic leverage to neutralize these malignant forces that surround and menace Iraq.

    6. SUMMARY:

    We have brilliant military and civilian leadership on the ground in Iraq. General Dave Petraeus, LTG Ray Odierno, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have the country’s treasure and combat power at their disposal. Our cause is just. The consequence of failure will be severe.

    The American people hold that the US Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in our society. The polls also show that domestic opinion is not calling for precipitous withdrawal. However, this whole Iraq operation is on the edge of unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with our forces caught in the middle.

    We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground ---the political support, economic reconstruction resources, and military strength it requires to succeed.

    Barry R. McCaffrey
    General USA (Ret)
    Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
    USMA, West Point, NY
    Attached Files
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    Here is a newspaper report on McCain's visit.


    McCain Wrong on Iraq Security, Merchants Say

    By KIRK SEMPLE
    Published: April 3, 2007

    BAGHDAD, April 2 — A day after members of an American Congressional delegation led by Senator John McCain pointed to their brief visit to Baghdad’s central market as evidence that the new security plan for the city was working, the merchants there were incredulous about the Americans’ conclusions.

    “What are they talking about?” Ali Jassim Faiyad, the owner of an electrical appliances shop in the market, said Monday. “The security procedures were abnormal!”

    The delegation arrived at the market, which is called Shorja, on Sunday with more than 100 soldiers in armored Humvees — the equivalent of an entire company — and attack helicopters circled overhead, a senior American military official in Baghdad said. The soldiers redirected traffic from the area and restricted access to the Americans, witnesses said, and sharpshooters were posted on the roofs. The congressmen wore bulletproof vests throughout their hourlong visit.

    “They paralyzed the market when they came,” Mr. Faiyad said during an interview in his shop on Monday. “This was only for the media.”

    He added, “This will not change anything.”

    At a news conference shortly after their outing, Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican, and his three Congressional colleagues described Shorja as a safe, bustling place full of hopeful and warmly welcoming Iraqis — “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime,” offered Representative Mike Pence, an Indiana Republican who was a member of the delegation.

    But the market that the congressmen said they saw is fundamentally different from the market Iraqis know.

    Merchants and customers say that a campaign by insurgents to attack Baghdad’s markets has put many shop owners out of business and forced radical changes in the way people shop. Shorja, the city’s oldest and largest market, set in a sprawling labyrinth of narrow streets and alleyways, has been bombed at least a half-dozen times since last summer.

    At least 61 people were killed and many more wounded in a three-pronged attack there on Feb. 12 involving two vehicle bombs and a roadside bomb.

    American and Iraqi security forces have tried to protect Shorja and other markets against car bombs by restricting vehicular traffic in some shopping areas and erecting blast walls around the markets’ perimeters. But those measures, while making the markets safer, have not made them safe.

    In the latest large-scale attack on a Baghdad market, at least 60 people, most of them women and children, were killed last Thursday when a man wrapped in an explosives belt walked around such barriers into a crowded street market in the Shaab neighborhood and blew himself up.

    In recent weeks, snipers hidden in Shorja’s bazaar have killed several people, merchants and the police say, and gunfights have erupted between militants and the Iraqi security forces in the area.

    During their visit on Sunday, the Americans were buttonholed by merchants and customers who wanted to talk about how unsafe they felt and the urgent need for more security in the markets and throughout the city, witnesses said.

    “They asked about our conditions, and we told them the situation was bad,” said Aboud Sharif Kadhoury, 63, who peddles prayer rugs at a sidewalk stand. He said he sold a small prayer rug worth less than $1 to a member of the Congressional delegation. (The official paid $20 and told Mr. Kadhoury to keep the change, the vendor said.)

    Mr. Kadhoury said he lost more than $2,000 worth of merchandise in the triple bombing in February. “I was hit in the head and back with shrapnel,” he recalled.

    Ali Youssef, 39, who sells glassware from a sidewalk stand down the block from Mr. Kadhoury, recalled: “Everybody complained to them. We told them we were harmed.”

    He and other merchants used to keep their shops open until dusk, but with the dropoff in customers as a result of the attacks, and a nightly curfew, most shop owners close their businesses in the early afternoon.

    “This area here is very dangerous,” continued Mr. Youssef, who lost his shop in the February attack. “They cannot secure it.”

    But those conversations were not reflected in the congressmen’s comments at the news conference on Sunday.

    Instead, the politicians spoke of strolling through the marketplace, haggling with merchants and drinking tea. “The most deeply moving thing for me was to mix and mingle unfettered,” Mr. Pence said.

    Mr. McCain was asked about a comment he made on a radio program in which he said that he could walk freely through certain areas of Baghdad.

    “I just came from one,” he replied sharply. “Things are better and there are encouraging signs.”

    He added, “Never have I been able to go out into the city as I was today.”

    Told about Mr. McCain’s assessment of the market, Abu Samer, a kitchenware and clothing wholesaler, scoffed: “He is just using this visit for publicity. He is just using it for himself. They’ll just take a photo of him at our market and they will just show it in the United States. He will win in America and we will have nothing.”

    A Senate spokeswoman for Mr. McCain said he left Iraq on Monday and was unavailable for comment because he was traveling.

    Several merchants said Monday that the Americans’ visit might have only made the market a more inviting target for insurgents.

    “Every time the government announces anything — that the electricity is good or the water supply is good — the insurgents come to attack it immediately,” said Abu Samer, 49, who would give only his nickname out of concern for his safety.

    But even though he was fearful of a revenge attack, he said, he could not afford to stay away from the market. This was his livelihood. “We can never anticipate when they will attack,” he said, his voice heavy with gloomy resignation. “This is not a new worry.”

    Ahmad Fadam and Wisam A. Habeeb contributed reporting.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/03/wo...in&oref=slogin


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

    Comment


    • #3
      Here's a column on GEN McCaffrey's latest trip report.

      McClatchy Washington Bureau | 10/17/2007 | Commentary: McCaffrey - 'defense strategy' unbalanced, incoherent and underfunded

      One of America’s more thoughtful military strategists, retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a veteran of ground combat in Vietnam and the Persian Gulf, says that our “defense strategy is unbalanced, incoherent and underfunded.”

      McCaffrey made his comments and recommendations in a six-page analysis addressed to professors at West Point, where he's an adjunct professor of international relations.

      For someone who spent his entire career in Army green, from West Point to four stars, McCaffrey found that U.S. defense modernization dollars and manpower resources are being poured into a rat-hole, or as he put it, “the ground combat meat-grinder,” of the war in Iraq at the rate of $12 billion a month.

      What’s being sacrificed, the general wrote, is future control of the vital air and sea-lanes and operational maneuver areas surrounding regional Pacific allies such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as the Alaskan sea frontier.

      McCaffrey said the greatest challenge to America's national security and foreign policy in the next 15 years will come with “the certain emergence of the People’s Republic of China as a global economic and political power with the military muscle to challenge and neutralize the deterrence capacity of the U.S. Navy and Air Force in the broad reaches of the Pacific maritime frontier.”

      He added that China will soon have the military capacity to pose a survival threat to American defensive capabilities, as well as to our ability to project power along the Pacific littoral.

      By 2020, the general wrote, we'll also be facing a resurgence of the military power projection capabilities of the Russian Federation and the emergence of other regional maritime and air powers — India, Iran, Pakistan and Japan.

      McCaffrey said he fears that as the Iraq disaster unwinds over the next 36 months, “We may swing from the eerie immaturity of the Rumsfeld era focus on the magic of technology as the sole determinant of national security to an equally disastrous concentration on building a ground combat force which could have won Iraq from the start — absent the bad judgment of the Rumsfeld Pentagon and compliant generals.”

      “We should create a U.S. National Security policy based principally on the deterrence capabilities of a dominant global Air Force and Naval presence,” McCaffrey wrote, adding that the money to do this with can't be squeezed out of the current defense budget, which comprises only 4 percent of America's GNP.

      The Air Force in particular is badly underfunded, McCaffrey noted, adding that Air Force manpower is shrinking and that its aging strike, airlift and aerial tanker fleets are being ground down by non-stop global operations.

      “The U.S. Air Force is our primary national strategic force . . . yet it is too small, has inadequate numbers of aging aircraft, has been marginalized in the current strategic debate and has mortgaged its modernization program to allow diversion of funds to prosecute” under-funded wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

      McCaffrey said the next administration must fix all these funding shortfalls for the Air Force “or we will place the American people in enormous peril.”

      The general’s focus in his report was on the Air Force, but he argued that the U.S. Army, with a total active duty force of more than 500,000 troops, is far too small and should be rebuilt to 800,000 troops. He noted that the Army National Guard has critical equipment shortages; ammunition and equipment reserves have been drawn down and used up in Iraq; the special operations forces are stretched to the breaking point; and training for the full range of possible combat missions has been halted for three years.

      When McCaffrey sounds the alarm, it’s time to begin paying attention. He doesn’t scare easily, and he doesn’t cry wolf unless one is chewing on his leg.

      If anyone besides George W. Bush and Dick Cheney still thinks that invading Iraq was a good idea, consider that to date it's cost our nation $600 billion and that hidden future costs could bring that to as much as $2 trillion even if the war ended tomorrow.

      That's money that might have been better spent on a host of domestic priorities, including reinforcing and re-equipping a military force capable of defending America and its allies now and in an uncertain future, one that's been made far more dangerous by the mistakes of a bunch of incompetent amateurs.
      "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

      Comment


      • #4
        We are stuck with Iraq one way or the other. We broke the pot and we own it as Colin Powell put it that way. After watching Frontline, I am really kinda furious with the Bush administration over asinine moves it made towards Iran. We had a golden opportunity to close and secure the eastern Iraq and southern front but no we had to squander it away because we think that Iran should be begging on its knees. What a cluster**** decision that was. Anybody with brains could see it was imperative that we secure the peace in Iraq and that includes pacifying those or making deals with those who could create problems in keeping the peace. But no, the Bush administration has to go everywhere.

        Richard Armitage's response on how US quickly turned on Iran after Iran helped US in toppling Taliban and helped the NA win back Aghanistan is ludricious. I mean compare the US response to Pakistan's coddling the main elements of Al Queda. So what if Iran coddled some minor players of Al Queda. Pakistan is doing far worse and US is actively suppling US made weapons and giving material & monetary support to Pakistan. Bullsh!t Bush Administration ****ed a couple golden opportunities to deal with Iran in a manner that would not hinder US efforts in the region.

        Comment


        • #5
          McCaffrey Testimony July 31, 2007

          McCaffrey HASC Testimony

          Scathing.

          "No one is actually at war except the Armed Forces, their US civilian
          contractors, and the CIA. There is only rhetoric and posturing from the
          rest of our government and the national legislature. Where is the shared
          sacrifice of 300 million Americans in the wealthiest nation in history?
          Where is the tax supplement to pay for a $12 billion a month war? Where are
          the political leaders calling publicly for America's parents and teachers
          to send their sons and daughters to fight "the long war on terror?" Where
          is the political energy to increase the size of our Marine Corps and US
          Army? Where is the willingness of Congress to implement a modern
          "lend-lease program" to give our Afghan and Iraqi allies the tools of war
          they need to protect their own people? Where is the mobilization of
          America's massive industrial capacity to fix the disastrous state of our
          ground combat military equipment?"


          How do you occupy a seat in the House and look this man in the eye as he delivers this testimony?
          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

          Comment


          • #6
            of course, the military is divided upon this point too: the logical way to spread the costs evenly is to institute a draft and have our nation's citizens serve. but then if one does that, you dilute the professionalism of the armed forces...
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

            Comment


            • #7
              Astralis Reply

              I think that much of what McCaffrey suggested doesn't entail a change to the draft yet would convey a heightened sense of obligation and commitment by our nation.

              That said,

              "...you dilute the professionalism of the armed forces..."

              I'm not completely convinced of this. My father told stories of the troops that they took from buses in Ft. Benning through basic training and deployed as a Cav regiment to W. Germany in 1958 during a peace-time draft. Said that they were an outstanding collection of kids. Very intelligent with great cohesion. He called them a true cross-section.

              It was unique that these guys were taken through basic by the same N.C.O.s and officers for whom they would serve while in Germany. The bonding was, therefore, outstanding. Still, I've great faith that, were it necessary, we could build an army of great size AND high quality. No human nor material restrictions exist to prevent that.
              "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
              "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                I think that much of what McCaffrey suggested doesn't entail a change to the draft yet would convey a heightened sense of obligation and commitment by our nation.

                That said,

                "...you dilute the professionalism of the armed forces..."

                I'm not completely convinced of this. My father told stories of the troops that they took from buses in Ft. Benning through basic training and deployed as a Cav regiment to W. Germany in 1958 during a peace-time draft. Said that they were an outstanding collection of kids. Very intelligent with great cohesion. He called them a true cross-section.

                It was unique that these guys were taken through basic by the same N.C.O.s and officers for whom they would serve while in Germany. The bonding was, therefore, outstanding. Still, I've great faith that, were it necessary, we could build an army of great size AND high quality. No human nor material restrictions exist to prevent that.
                S-2,
                While Vietnam was a different time, GEN McCaffrey said that commanding a company of draftees in Vietnam was far from the preferred solution. I guess the devil is in how you set up the deferments.
                "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

                Comment


                • #9
                  Shek Reply

                  Shek,

                  "Where are the political leaders calling publicly for America's parents and teachers to send their sons and daughters to fight "the long war on terror?"

                  Like I said earlier, and most important to me, removing the above sentence from McCaffrey's testimony still leaves many ways for our nation to display a greater commitment.

                  As for the draft, I can easily see bonusing the hell out of draft volunteers for combat arms MOS as one get-around, assigning draftees to duties outside the line of fire and in an MOS for which they can be quickly skill level 1 qualified to optimize their service-time. Maintaining a cap on force-size would allow us to build a list of draft-eligible citizens (yup, women too) far in excess of our requirements. Screw deferments for anything other than physically/emotionally/mentally disqualifying impairments/injuries.

                  A draft should be last on the list. I'm hoping that we've seen the worst of our force turbulence. Not sure, though and deeply rue the interminable commitment to which we've linked ourselves.
                  "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                  "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The considered opinions of our Generals comport themselves in the degree to which diplomacy must come to play a role in settlement of the Mesopotamian region. Viable solutions have availed themselves such as those lately discussed by American leaders such as Tommy Thompson & Bill Richardson.

                    Together with an expansion of coalition operations in the theatre aimed at destabilising terrorists as well as eliminating future threats, increased responsibility of indigeneous leadership, heightened security in terrorist sectors, further coalition involvement & exploitation of natural resources will serve to establish a manageable environment in that area for future generations. Our Western Alliance will need bases throughout from which to operate in escalating the GWOT & securing resources & commerce in Africa & Asia.
                    "If we will not be governed by God then we will be ruled by tyrants" -William Penn

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Shek Reply

                      "10-23-2007 05:38 PM
                      Shek

                      Here's a column on GEN McCaffrey's latest trip report."


                      Shek,

                      I've been to McCaffrey's website and the only thing that I see is a trip report of Columbia from September. Is there something more recent?

                      If so, could you post a link please?:)
                      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by S-2 View Post
                        "10-23-2007 05:38 PM
                        Shek

                        Here's a column on GEN McCaffrey's latest trip report."


                        Shek,

                        I've been to McCaffrey's website and the only thing that I see is a trip report of Columbia from September. Is there something more recent?

                        If so, could you post a link please?:)
                        Sorry, I couldn't find anything out there on the net.
                        "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Not a trip report, but Congressional testimony.

                          http://www.michaelyon-online.com/dow.../pdf/SFRCH.pdf
                          "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Shek View Post
                            Not a trip report, but Congressional testimony.

                            http://www.michaelyon-online.com/dow.../pdf/SFRCH.pdf
                            Thanks

                            As usual, good stuff. Hope people listen
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              McCaffrey Testimony

                              Bleak.
                              "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                              "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                              Comment

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