Colonel,
I had been reading over a couple threads in this forum, Iraq Study Group commentary started by Major Shek and Saudi will intervene in Iraq if U.S. withdraws: aide by troung. As a result, I wanted to see if I could get a commentary and analysis on a hypothetical conflict that came to mind reading those threads.
Background: September 2007.
The situation in the Sunni Arab areas of Iraq has not improved, it has vastly worsened. The stability seen in Shi'ite areas in late 2006 has completely disintegrated, with Iranian-backed Shiites taking up arms against US and Allied forces in droves. At the same time, Shiites and Sunnis are fighting each other with a greater intensity than ever before. Due to mounting demands back home, and the untenability of their situations, Britain and the Polish MND evacuate southern Iraq. The US retrenches to Kurdistan as a result of mounting casualties and its inability to secure southern Iraq. The US, now alone, has no means to stabilize the rest of Iraq without resorting to measures that are politically and financially dangerous, requiring a massive deployment of US forces stationed at home and in other countries.
Upon withdrawal, conflict between Shiites and Sunnis boils over into brutal, full-fledged civil war. Kurdistan essentially becomes an American protectorate that is, in theory, still a part of the now fully dismembered Iraqi state. Any attempts at being recognized as or becoming an independent state are quashed to acquiesce to Turkish wishes.
Scenario: Iran and Saudi Arabia and their respective allies make a grab to occupy the Sunni Arab and Shi'ite areas to shore up their security positions and prevent the other side from making gains.
The major participants are Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is joined by Syria, and Saudi Arabia is joined by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.
The rest of the Muslim world stays out of the conflict citing various reasons.
Each coalition wages war on the other to its fullest current capacity, with a possible militarization of a large portion of the eligible male military-age population, which may reinforce units involved in the war (up to you whether or not to address the latter part, it's very hypothetical and may detract).
Both Russia and the United States have agreed to supply the Iranian and Saudi-led alliances, respectively, mainly armaments for oil, as well as technical assistance and intelligence. The USN has blockaded the Iranian coastline preventing oil tankers from leaving port. Iran, however, is able to export the same levels of oil uninterrupted via pipelines traveling through CIS states to Russia. (they exist by this time). Russia re-exports this oil to Europe and China. Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari but perhaps not Kuwaiti oil exports are relatively unaffected due to protection afforded by elements of the USN 5th and 7th.
Neither the Russians or the Americans involve their own military personnel directly in the conflict. NATO, including Turkey, lends no overt assistance to any party in the conflict, though Turkey may make "gestures".
Currently: Each side rushes to secure the unoccupied portion of Iraq, with pushes being made for Baghdad, Basra, Tikrit, and all major cities along the Tigris and the Euphrates south of the de facto Kurdistan protectorate.
[/end]
I'd like to know the most likely order of battle, objectives each side can accomplish given their capabilities, where each side will makes its moves given their capabilities, how quickly their forces can mobilize and react, and the likely outcome of such a war, as well as any other details you can give that I have overlooked asking for.
Perhaps a bit of a digression, and I'm not really qualified to speak about the following, but I think it's a given that Iran and Syria have an advantage due to proximity, as well as Iran having more military experience with the Iran-Iraq war under its belt. The Saudi-led coalition has a technological advantage over Iran and Syria in military hardware, but are at a disadvantage due to distance, as well as the varying quality of their respective armed forces personnel compared to Iran.
Other military professionals are welcome to comment, but I'd like the Colonel to lend his insights and views first. Others are welcome to pose any questions or comments they may have during the course of the discussion.
I'll likely follow up with other questions, for example, specific factors are added or removed. But now I'll leave the field for you to comment.
-Ironduke out
I had been reading over a couple threads in this forum, Iraq Study Group commentary started by Major Shek and Saudi will intervene in Iraq if U.S. withdraws: aide by troung. As a result, I wanted to see if I could get a commentary and analysis on a hypothetical conflict that came to mind reading those threads.
Background: September 2007.
The situation in the Sunni Arab areas of Iraq has not improved, it has vastly worsened. The stability seen in Shi'ite areas in late 2006 has completely disintegrated, with Iranian-backed Shiites taking up arms against US and Allied forces in droves. At the same time, Shiites and Sunnis are fighting each other with a greater intensity than ever before. Due to mounting demands back home, and the untenability of their situations, Britain and the Polish MND evacuate southern Iraq. The US retrenches to Kurdistan as a result of mounting casualties and its inability to secure southern Iraq. The US, now alone, has no means to stabilize the rest of Iraq without resorting to measures that are politically and financially dangerous, requiring a massive deployment of US forces stationed at home and in other countries.
Upon withdrawal, conflict between Shiites and Sunnis boils over into brutal, full-fledged civil war. Kurdistan essentially becomes an American protectorate that is, in theory, still a part of the now fully dismembered Iraqi state. Any attempts at being recognized as or becoming an independent state are quashed to acquiesce to Turkish wishes.
Scenario: Iran and Saudi Arabia and their respective allies make a grab to occupy the Sunni Arab and Shi'ite areas to shore up their security positions and prevent the other side from making gains.
The major participants are Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is joined by Syria, and Saudi Arabia is joined by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.
The rest of the Muslim world stays out of the conflict citing various reasons.
Each coalition wages war on the other to its fullest current capacity, with a possible militarization of a large portion of the eligible male military-age population, which may reinforce units involved in the war (up to you whether or not to address the latter part, it's very hypothetical and may detract).
Both Russia and the United States have agreed to supply the Iranian and Saudi-led alliances, respectively, mainly armaments for oil, as well as technical assistance and intelligence. The USN has blockaded the Iranian coastline preventing oil tankers from leaving port. Iran, however, is able to export the same levels of oil uninterrupted via pipelines traveling through CIS states to Russia. (they exist by this time). Russia re-exports this oil to Europe and China. Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari but perhaps not Kuwaiti oil exports are relatively unaffected due to protection afforded by elements of the USN 5th and 7th.
Neither the Russians or the Americans involve their own military personnel directly in the conflict. NATO, including Turkey, lends no overt assistance to any party in the conflict, though Turkey may make "gestures".
Currently: Each side rushes to secure the unoccupied portion of Iraq, with pushes being made for Baghdad, Basra, Tikrit, and all major cities along the Tigris and the Euphrates south of the de facto Kurdistan protectorate.
[/end]
I'd like to know the most likely order of battle, objectives each side can accomplish given their capabilities, where each side will makes its moves given their capabilities, how quickly their forces can mobilize and react, and the likely outcome of such a war, as well as any other details you can give that I have overlooked asking for.
Perhaps a bit of a digression, and I'm not really qualified to speak about the following, but I think it's a given that Iran and Syria have an advantage due to proximity, as well as Iran having more military experience with the Iran-Iraq war under its belt. The Saudi-led coalition has a technological advantage over Iran and Syria in military hardware, but are at a disadvantage due to distance, as well as the varying quality of their respective armed forces personnel compared to Iran.
Other military professionals are welcome to comment, but I'd like the Colonel to lend his insights and views first. Others are welcome to pose any questions or comments they may have during the course of the discussion.
I'll likely follow up with other questions, for example, specific factors are added or removed. But now I'll leave the field for you to comment.
-Ironduke out
Comment