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Commando
27 Nov 06,, 11:56
I know this sounds rather extreme, and i am sure hoping that a scenario like this does not pan out. But what would be the result of military conflict between Australia and Indonesia. It most likely won't happen but what will be the result if it did?

-{SpoonmaN}-
27 Nov 06,, 12:13
The RAAF would destory all TNI aircraft that are based within range of Northern Australia, the RAN would sink the rather neglected TNI Naval Forces, the TNI Land Forces would sit around on their garrison duties because they're basically immobile, and the ADF wouldn't be able to do much more than that because we'd never actually be able to handle the logistics of invading Indonesia, unless we were only interested in attacking one of the smaller islands for some wierd reason. Basically the ADF is setting itself up for rapid power projection on a small to possibly mid-scale, while the TNI is pretty much totally geared towards maintaining Indonesia's territorial integrity.
Which is why it won't happen, because neither country is actually capable of invading the other, nor are they going to be in the forseeable future. Contrary to what many people in both countries think, we cant afford to be enemies with eachother, and we're not going to be again as far as I see it, since we need eachother, poltically, economically and stratigcally, and since the Republik isn't run by some corrupt authoritarian brute we don't really have to be so reserved about being friends with them anymore. Formal alliances are unlikely since Indonesia doesnt have allies, part of the non-aligned movement thing.

neilmpenny
29 Dec 06,, 00:06
An Indonesian invasion, our biggest national paranoia as a nation since day 1. There is a reason why we sent troops over in support of the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, a treaty obligation. If the Indonesians did get itchy feet we would be expecting a little support from our allies even though they seem a litte over extended at the moment.

gf0012-aust
29 Dec 06,, 01:28
An Indonesian invasion, our biggest national paranoia as a nation since day 1. There is a reason why we sent troops over in support of the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, a treaty obligation. If the Indonesians did get itchy feet we would be expecting a little support from our allies even though they seem a litte over extended at the moment.

The indonesians don't have one scintilla of the logistics required to pull this off.

the fact that some of the "old guard" still pronounce this as a meaningful threat means that they are being mischievous IMO. (either that or they are clueless as to the state of the indonesian military - and are decidedly clueless as to the form and function of regional politics)

a 1st yr trainee at duntroon could educate them as to the difficulties faced.

btw, the US was quietly asked not to be visible in indonesia - and the US did not want to be overtly involved against indonesia as we both need them in the current troubles.

any talk of an indonesian threat post Konfrontassi is ridiculous at a tactical, geopolitical and more importantly - logistical level.

gunnut
29 Dec 06,, 01:33
Indonesia invading Australia? How?

gamercube
29 Dec 06,, 02:02
More important question.....why?

troung
29 Dec 06,, 02:13
To steal Kangaroos I guess.

The TNI is a garrison force (Kodam) for the most part with a two division reserve (Kostrad) to be deployed if the local garrisons are unable to put down trouble and then there are 6000 members of the Special Forces (Kopassus) along with a force of Marines. They are supported by a small navy and air force to move them around and provide support. Other then East Timor and Papau they aren't in a position to overrun anyone and they don't have claims that would cause them to invade someone.

As it stands the TNI was generally opposed to expansion in the 1950s and 1960s. Timor happened because of the events as even during the 1950s and 1960s they never made a claim over it.

Their current modernization is defensive is planning; replacing older ships and planes to better provide coverage. Better comm equipment for the army along with new vehicles to improve mobility and the like. Not an arms race.

So the fear of the yellow peril is overstated.

-{SpoonmaN}-
29 Dec 06,, 02:18
More important question.....why?

My point exactly man, its never going to happen, because it cannot happen, and there is no reason for it to happen. It would be possible for us to fight a border war at sea and in the air, with limited raids on eachother's territory, although even this isn't going to happen right now because the TNI Naval and Air Forces are in a somewhat deficient state and would be no competition for the ADF.
So basically, its not worth worrying about, Australians and Indonesians should start seeing eachother as allies, because we already are and we will be for the forseeable future.

Zhang Fei
29 Dec 06,, 03:08
More important question.....why?The usual reasons - land and natural resources. The same reason that Iraq invaded Iran and Kuwait. The same reason that Indonesia invaded East Timor and forced the Dutch to cede West Papua to them instead of granting it independence. The same reason that Indonesia attempted to conquer Malaysia and Singapore during the Confrontation of the 1960's. Imperialism isn't a Western invention. Non-Westerners were doing it while Westerners were running around in animal skins.

troung
29 Dec 06,, 03:55
The same reason that Indonesia invaded East Timor

Well if Australia went communist then I am sure Indonesia would have allies and people pushing them to go in.


and forced the Dutch to cede West Papua to them instead of granting it independence.

Nationalistic reasons. Unifying the former Dutch colony under the Indonesian state.


The same reason that Indonesia attempted to conquer Malaysia and Singapore during the Confrontation of the 1960's.

The Indonesian military didn't respond well to it and would not even bother to plan an invasion of Australia. The Indonesian army half assed the confrontation. Half assed might be too strong; they barely tried. Sent a handful of units while keeping their best at the capital to counter the reds. And some of the confrontation was possibly to get them away from the capital.

They have bigger fish to fry; like keeping the nation together and keeping their own position in said nation. They ain't arming for an invasion, ain't reorganizing their army to conduct an invasion, they ain't building/buying the ships to move an invasion force. The Indonesian army has opposed the thought of possibly doing away with their garrisons.

Plus Australia is better friends with the USA.

gf0012-aust
29 Dec 06,, 04:49
The stark reality is that Indonesia is a paramilitary garrison force. Its by no means an expeditionary military - and by no means capable of even projecting that paramilitary power into Malaysia and/or Singapore. Both countries would clean up the Indons in very short order.

Indonesias relationship with Australia has changed.

we've provided them with over $2bn dollars in relief over the last 9 years
we train their national intelligence arms of the "republikan" police
we've provided them with current generation B-vests, ISR, forensic training
we are assisting in the rewriting of their constitiution so as to recognise basic governance issues such as "the separation of powers" of the state, judiciary and military
we have been asked to provide them with new doctrine to develop a "green water" capability over a blue water capability
we assist in the training of Kopassus Unit 81 (their primary CT outfit)
we enrol their foreign affairs graduates into australian universities so as to create links for the future
we have a very close national police relationship


I could go, but you get the point.

there is a newfound maturity in the relationship of both countries.

Indonesia is nowhere even remotely capable of projecting threat at a force de main level. They have no mass logistics, they have no support to engage in mass logistics, their combat fixed wing elements are more or less hanger queens - and all the new russian kit in the world will not change the fact that they are nowhere even remotely capable of taking on the Sings who are in WVR (literally) across the Straits.

Implying that it is so stretches the crediblity of those who promote it.

Khan Sahab
30 Dec 06,, 14:24
Australia going one on one with Indonesia and unnoticed? It can't actually happen because US will come to Aussie help and it's over!

-{SpoonmaN}-
01 Jan 07,, 06:58
Australia going one on one with Indonesia and unnoticed? It can't actually happen because US will come to Aussie help and it's over!

It doesnt matter because this will never ever happen, the notion that we're enemies is long dead.