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Ray
05 Nov 06,, 15:59
U.S. speeds attack plans for North Korea


By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
November 3, 2006

The Pentagon has stepped up planning for attacks against North Korea's nuclear program and is bolstering nuclear forces in Asia, said defense officials familiar with the highly secret process.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the accelerated military planning includes detailed programs for striking a North Korean plutonium-reprocessing facility at Yongbyon with special operations commando raids or strikes with Tomahawk cruise missiles or other precision-guided weapons.
The effort, which had been under way for several months, was given new impetus by Pyongyang's underground nuclear test Oct. 9 and growing opposition to the nuclear program of Kim Jong-il's communist regime, especially by China and South Korea.
A Pentagon official said the Department of Defense is considering "various military options" to remove the program.
"Other than nuclear strikes, which are considered excessive, there are several options now in place. Planning has been accelerated," the official said.
A second, senior defense official privy to the effort said the Bush administration recently affirmed its commitment to both South Korea and Japan that it would use U.S. nuclear weapons to deter North Korea, now considered an unofficial nuclear weapon state.
"We will resort to whatever force levels we need to have, to defend the Republic of Korea. That nuclear deterrence is in place," said the senior official, who declined to reveal what nuclear forces are deployed in Asia.
Other officials said the forces include bombs and air-launched missiles stored at Guam, a U.S. island in the western Pacific, that could be delivered by B-52 or B-2 bombers. Nine U.S. nuclear-missile submarines regularly deploy to Asian waters from Washington state.
The officials said one military option calls for teams of Navy SEALs or other special operations commandos to conduct covert raids on Yongbyon's plutonium-reprocessing facility.
The commandos would blow up the facility to prevent further reprocessing of the spent fuel rods, which provides the material for developing nuclear weapons.
A second option calls for strikes by precision-guided Tomahawk missiles on the reprocessing plant from submarines or ships. The plan calls for simultaneous strikes from various sides to minimize any radioactive particles being carried away in the air.
Planners estimate that six Tomahawks could destroy the reprocessing plant and that it would take five to 10 years to rebuild.
Asked about the strike planning, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said the U.S. government is seeking a "peaceful, diplomatic solution" to the threat posed by North Korea.
Regarding any military options, Mr. Whitman said, "The U.S. military is prepared and capable of carrying out all of its assigned missions."
The planning does not mean that the United States will attack, only that military forces are ready to do so if President Bush orders strikes. Concerned about threats from rogue states such as North Korea, Mr. Bush called for a ballistic missile defense system, parts of which are operational.
Defense officials said a key factor in the ramped-up planning effort is China's new attitude toward North Korea. Beijing's leaders, upset that North Korea conducted the test, supported a U.S.-led United Nations' resolution.
Chinese opposition to military action had limited defense planning, the officials said. In the past, U.S. military plans required warning Beijing, a move considered likely to compromise any planned action because of the close military ties between China and North Korea.
The Bush administration regards the new level of Chinese support as a "green light" for more aggressive military planning.
U.S. officials think North Korea will conduct another underground test soon because Pyongyang is demanding to be recognized as a declared nuclear power. Both China and the U.S. gauged the test as only partially successful.
The Yongbyon plant, 32 miles from the coast and a half-mile from a river, is considered a key target because U.S. intelligence agencies suspect that it is where the plutonium fuel used in the Oct. 9 test was produced.
Defense planners also said equipment destroyed at Yongbyon would be difficult to replace once newly approved U.N. sanctions are in place.
Another set of targets could be the nuclear test site near Kilchu, in northeastern North Korea. That site includes several research and testing-control facilities in the mountains -- and possibly one more tunnel where a nuclear device could be set off, the officials said.
Recent intelligence reports also provided new information about Pyongyang's uranium-enrichment program, which remains hidden in underground facilities in northern North Korea, the officials said.
The U.S. Special Operations Command has been planning raids against North Korean nuclear facilities for some time. It has conducted training for joint operations with South Korean special forces as well as unilateral U.S. operations.
U.S. Pacific Command spokesman Capt. Jeff Alderson declined to comment on military planning but said the command is continuing to shift forces to the Pacific and has four missile-defense ships deployed in Japan.
Mr. Bush said recently that any transfer of nuclear weapons by North Korea would be a "grave threat," phrasing viewed as diplomatic code for a military response. Defense officials said the military option will be used if North Korea is caught transferring nuclear arms to other states or terrorist groups.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061103-122702-4895r_page2.htm

The US is now ready to hit another hot spot of the world.

This is Islamoterroist free area and it a totally pariah state and that is the advantage.

However, the impediment is that China is against military action.

Therefore, the US apparently has to tread with prudence since it would not be in the interest of the US to antagonise China.

In the eventuality of these NK nuclear facilities being knocked out, it will be end of NK's nuclear dream.

The moot point is, will the US do it?

gunnut
06 Nov 06,, 04:38
If there's talk of a plan to destroy NK's ability to make nukes, that means it's part of the diplomatic solution. We want to talk to them. China wants to talk to them. NK is less of a threat than Iran. I believe Kim just wants some attention. To announce that there's a plan to attack is to get him back to the table.

Iran is more of a problem. It's close to terrorists. It's a a fanatical religious state. I believe Iran to be more of a threat to the US than NK.

NK diverts us away from the real problem.

Francois
06 Nov 06,, 09:43
Kim and NK has pretty much isolated themselves in their arrogancy.
While I see more Iran playing the same game as China.

HKDan
06 Nov 06,, 12:20
If there's talk of a plan to destroy NK's ability to make nukes, that means it's part of the diplomatic solution. We want to talk to them. China wants to talk to them. NK is less of a threat than Iran. I believe Kim just wants some attention. To announce that there's a plan to attack is to get him back to the table.

Iran is more of a problem. It's close to terrorists. It's a a fanatical religious state. I believe Iran to be more of a threat to the US than NK.

NK diverts us away from the real problem.

Completely agree. N Korea is not the threat. I have a very strong feeling that N Korea is a problem that will eventually solve itself. Not so with Iran. A nuclear Iran has potential to do just about anything. I fully believe that China has the ability to control N Korea, they just have not yet chosen to do so. Nobody has the same power over Iran.

Ray
06 Nov 06,, 20:28
NK is a problem.

It is high unpredictable.

It did not even heed China's (her only well wisher) friendly caution!

Because it is far and remote, it does not mean it is not a threat.

At the same time, Iran is in the hotseat of world's most dangerous area!

Officer of Engineers
06 Nov 06,, 20:52
Sir,

Over at CDF, we're discussing an PRC-NK war scenario and the question that keeps popping up is why ain't the Chinese invading?

The NKs are the source of NE China's criminal problems including counterfeit currency, drugs, gambling, extortion, gang wars, prostitution, and illegal arms. The NKs are doing more to hurt China than Noreiga did when he was Panama's dictator.

Francois
07 Nov 06,, 02:29
The reason is that China needs an half-dying state at its door, to be a buffer against the Western world (SKorea).
There is NO will in China to change things there.
NKor and SKor are the only ones willing to reunite, each under its own condition.

HKDan
07 Nov 06,, 07:01
NK is a problem.

It is high unpredictable.

It did not even heed China's (her only well wisher) friendly caution!

Because it is far and remote, it does not mean it is not a threat.

At the same time, Iran is in the hotseat of world's most dangerous area!

Yes, N Korea is definitely a problem. If they were not they wouldnt warrant any sort of discussion. however, from the perspective of the US, N Korea is a problem that is better and more effectively dealt with by other parties. The pressing security concern is Iran(after the Iraq disaster that is).
As for why China has not yet taken steps to remove KJI from power, my guess is that from the Chinese point of view the benefits do not yet outweigh the risks. N Korea is a growing pain in the a#$ for China, but not yet a prime candidate for invasion. I wouldnt be surprised if the Chinese experience with Vietnam and what the Americans are going through in Iraq at this moment are giving the Chinese some pause. Invading a country is no small feat. It should only be done as a last resort. I think that N Korea has a way to go before they have to seriously fear Chinese invasion. Besides, there are other things (like shutting the border completely, supporting a coup) that the Chinese could try first.

Ray
07 Nov 06,, 08:48
One must understand that China's standing in Asia is because she has openly never indicated any interest in "interfering" in the internal affairs of a country.

Therefore, any aggressive action including attempts at regime change will spoil the image and will make Asian countries suspicious of her and thereby being a death knell to her attempts at hegemony.

So China is definitely out of any attempts at muscle flexing!

gunnut
07 Nov 06,, 09:21
The Chinese can say they don't want to meddle in other nation's internal affairs, but we all know they will, if subtlely. That is the mark of a powerful nation.

China is very shrewd. NK is useful to blackmail the west. True, China can barely control it, but it at least has some influence over NK. In this role, China becomes a player. The EU will defer to China, as will Russia on this matter. The US is busy with Iraq and frankly we'd rather have someone else deal with Kim.

By projecting itself as indispensible, and a buffering force between NK and the west, China gains prestige on the world stage, brownie points in future dealings with EU and US, if you will.

China will not attack NK to solve its border problem. If it did, then China is stuck with rebuilding NK. I guess it could turn NK over to SK, but then there's no guarantee that US will withdraw its troops from Korea.

NK is too valuable to China right now to change anything.

Ray
07 Nov 06,, 10:49
China is very shrewd. NK is useful to blackmail the west. True, China can barely control it, but it at least has some influence over NK.

Hit the nail on the head.

Spot on!

Tokyo Drifter
09 Nov 06,, 04:49
Sir,

Over at CDF, we're discussing an PRC-NK war scenario

That's because its a crap website,
even Bush won't go near the Norks

Officer of Engineers
09 Nov 06,, 05:34
The membership speaks for itself ... and you're an idiot!

HKDan
09 Nov 06,, 06:54
That's because its a crap website,
even Bush won't go near the Norks

????:rolleyes:
Was that supposed to make sense?

Ray
09 Nov 06,, 08:11
Colonel,

Maybe he is making a mistake with the Communist website!

Kansas Bear
09 Nov 06,, 16:58
Sir,

Over at CDF, we're discussing an PRC-NK war scenario and the question that keeps popping up is why ain't the Chinese invading?

The NKs are the source of NE China's criminal problems including counterfeit currency, drugs, gambling, extortion, gang wars, prostitution, and illegal arms. The NKs are doing more to hurt China than Noreiga did when he was Panama's dictator.


Is there the possibility that NK's nuclear program is actually aimed at China instead of the US?

As you said, "why ain't the Chinese invading?". Could Kim's paranoia be directed towards a possible Chinese invasion to remove him from power?
How would you stop an invasion by China?

gunnut
09 Nov 06,, 20:31
Hit the nail on the head.

Spot on!

I'm flattered, sir. :)

gunnut
09 Nov 06,, 20:33
????:rolleyes:
Was that supposed to make sense?

I think you have China Defense mixed up with Sino Defense.

China Defense was co-founded by the Colonel, and the membership consists of experts, professionals, and enthusiasts (watchers, I should clarify) of the Chinese military.

Sino Denfese is more of a hobbyist site. A lot of internet warriors instead of professionals.

Ray
09 Nov 06,, 22:00
Isn't Sino Defence a Communist site?

gunnut
09 Nov 06,, 22:50
Isn't Sino Defence a Communist site?

If so, then they show an utter lack of professionalism.

It's not bad for a fan site though. :biggrin:

Officer of Engineers
10 Nov 06,, 02:47
Is there the possibility that NK's nuclear program is actually aimed at China instead of the US?

Real bad idea aiming a gun at the guy who's giving you water and bread.


As you said, "why ain't the Chinese invading?". Could Kim's paranoia be directed towards a possible Chinese invasion to remove him from power?

There's a theory that the NK nuke was directed at blackmailing China into more aide. If the NKs return to 6 party talks, KJI was thinking that he would be rewarded.


How would you stop an invasion by China?

There's no way to stop the Chinese if they're determined. The numbers ain't there unless they move troops from the DMZ.

troung
10 Nov 06,, 03:08
Sir, Over at CDF, we're discussing an PRC-NK war scenario and the question that keeps popping up is why ain't the Chinese invading? The NKs are the source of NE China's criminal problems including counterfeit currency, drugs, gambling, extortion, gang wars, prostitution, and illegal arms. The NKs are doing more to hurt China than Noreiga did when he was Panama's dictator.

They don't want to get stuck holding the bag?

NoKo's crap is bad enough, getting possibly stuck in NoKo trying to provide services/food/clothing and so forth is too much.

You break it you buy it?

HKDan
10 Nov 06,, 03:50
I think you have China Defense mixed up with Sino Defense.

China Defense was co-founded by the Colonel, and the membership consists of experts, professionals, and enthusiasts (watchers, I should clarify) of the Chinese military.

Sino Denfese is more of a hobbyist site. A lot of internet warriors instead of professionals.

Am familiar with both. I was commenting on Tokyo Drifter's unprovoked attack on his betters.

Kansas Bear
10 Nov 06,, 05:02
Real bad idea aiming a gun at the guy who's giving you water and bread.
Granted.




There's a theory that the NK nuke was directed at blackmailing China into more aide. If the NKs return to 6 party talks, KJI was thinking that he would be rewarded.
It would follow KJI's type of "thinking".




There's no way to stop the Chinese if they're determined. The numbers ain't there unless they move troops from the DMZ.

Which ain't gonna happen!

Which opens the door for nuclear blackmail.

Officer of Engineers
10 Nov 06,, 07:29
They don't want to get stuck holding the bag?

It would seemed so. The Chinese ain't the only ones who can collapse KJI. The South Koreans could do it. The Americans and the Japanese together could also do it (by cutting off NK banking links which would leave no way for Pakistan nor Iran to pay for NK missiles).

However, it is the Chinese who would suffer the most from an NK collapse.

Now, the question is, what's the difference? Put a pro-China strongman in place of KJI, what would be the difference?

Blademaster
10 Nov 06,, 10:17
Now, the question is, what's the difference? Put a pro-China strongman in place of KJI, what would be the difference?

The difference is that China can stop NK from being a Noreiga. China is ruthless to root NK's criminal gangs out and cull some of the senior leadership of NK.

A pro-China strongman would consider doing some economic moves mirroring Deng Xiaoping's moves in the early 1980s.

Tokyo Drifter
10 Nov 06,, 13:07
I think you have China Defense mixed up with Sino Defense.

China Defense was co-founded by the Colonel, and the membership consists of experts, professionals, and enthusiasts (watchers, I should clarify) of the Chinese military.

.

Which is why it's such a terrible site, OOE is one of the big idiots on the Net. It's funny the number of times this crazy canuck wth his KMT and TSU propaganda has been proven to be false by other posters on the worldaffairs site but rather than admitting to the nonsense he posts he tries to change the subject.

Officer of Engineers
10 Nov 06,, 14:09
And you're the stupid idiot who don't know squat. I stand by my posts. And you can go swim with the commies.

Ray
10 Nov 06,, 15:41
OOE is one of the big idiots on the Net

Not the opinion held by a large majority on the Net though.

Are you a member of the Chinese Communist Party?

Melancap. Balabak kau.

Tokyo Drifter
10 Nov 06,, 18:02
And you're the stupid idiot who don't know squat. I stand by my posts. And you can go swim with the commies.

Japan ain't communist, its the TSU who should be ashamed of their ball-licking
http://www.jref.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19921
http://taiwansecurity.org/News/2005/TN-060405.htm
http://www.crisscross.com/jp/forum/fb.asp?go=prev&m=469805&viewType=tm
Bush says Taiwan separatists are "mosquitoes attacking an elephant"
maybe this cancuk can explain how the some of the folks in Taiwan miss their fomer masters

troung
10 Nov 06,, 18:17
However, it is the Chinese who would suffer the most from an NK collapse. Now, the question is, what's the difference? Put a pro-China strongman in place of KJI, what would be the difference?

NoKo refugees clogging the roads China wants to use to invade.

Plus a little pressure and what is left of the country might collapse leaving the CCP holding the broken vase and expected to pay for it. Noko is already slumped in the corner another blow and they might be out for the count with China having to deal with it. That is the CCP having to feed and cloth the population and provide all the services.

Putting up a pro-CCP strongman is a long term high risk investment that could not have returns and China would have to increase support to keep someone in place. Expectations might just rise as the guy would have to make statements to that effect to garner support and so forth.

And that is concluding that it is nearly a flawless victory which it logically could not turn out to be and Chinese troops could bleed a lot taking over. Or they don't bleed and the NoKo army goes home with their weapons making it hard for the vassal ruler China puts up.

Break it and you buy it. Cross border crap is not as bad as having to rebuild NoKo, well build it or getting bogged down.

===
A question if you don't mind; are wheeled apc issued units considered mech in China and truck mounted considered motorized?

Kansas Bear
10 Nov 06,, 19:18
However, it is the Chinese who would suffer the most from an NK collapse.

Yet, considering the current situation; refugees attempting to flee a starving NK, KJI's stubborn defiance regarding his nuclear weapons program. What could be worse?


Now, the question is, what's the difference? Put a pro-China strongman in place of KJI, what would be the difference?

Stability, economic and mental.

gunnut
10 Nov 06,, 19:44
Am familiar with both. I was commenting on Tokyo Drifter's unprovoked attack on his betters.

Oops, my apologies. I thought you and Tokyo Drifter are the same...:redface:

My post was meant for Tokyo Drifter.

Old age is catching up with me.

gunnut
10 Nov 06,, 19:52
Japan ain't communist, its the TSU who should be ashamed of their ball-licking
http://www.jref.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19921
http://taiwansecurity.org/News/2005/TN-060405.htm
http://www.crisscross.com/jp/forum/fb.asp?go=prev&m=469805&viewType=tm
Bush says Taiwan separatists are "mosquitoes attacking an elephant"
maybe this cancuk can explain how the some of the folks in Taiwan miss their fomer masters

Ah, finally...you are an imperial Japanese militarist who is still bitter about losing the war, or one who pretends to be.

Whether you admit it or not, you've been trumped by your better.

Your government had committed war crimes.

Most of Asia hates you.:)

gunnut
10 Nov 06,, 19:54
Now, the question is, what's the difference? Put a pro-China strongman in place of KJI, what would be the difference?

Maybe China doesn't want to appear to be like the old Soviet Union setting up their satellite nations. That would alarm the US too much, which is more than what they want to deal with right now.

Officer of Engineers
11 Nov 06,, 01:30
A question if you don't mind; are wheeled apc issued units considered mech in China and truck mounted considered motorized?

About 10 or even 6 years ago, I would say that's true but now, it's a matter of historic titles. Those divisions that were called Motorized are still being called Motorized despite the fact that they've got armoured tracks. Newly formed combined arms units are being called mech no matter what they're riding in.

Officer of Engineers
11 Nov 06,, 01:31
Maybe China doesn't want to appear to be like the old Soviet Union setting up their satellite nations. That would alarm the US too much, which is more than what they want to deal with right now.

The US actually gave a green light ... or rather did not raise a red flag to the Chinese when they considered the option.

gunnut
13 Nov 06,, 19:52
The US actually gave a green light ... or rather did not raise a red flag to the Chinese when they considered the option.

In that case, maybe the Chinese thought "hmmm...why wouldn't they object? What's in it for them? They don't just give up anything so easily. I smell a rat..." :biggrin:

-{SpoonmaN}-
22 Nov 06,, 14:03
Real bad idea aiming a gun at the guy who's giving you water and bread.



There's a theory that the NK nuke was directed at blackmailing China into more aide. If the NKs return to 6 party talks, KJI was thinking that he would be rewarded.



There's no way to stop the Chinese if they're determined. The numbers ain't there unless they move troops from the DMZ.

OOE I've been wondering, what's your take on the level of technical superiority the PLA enjoys over the KPA? I would imagine the PLA would be at least a fair way ahead by now, certainly in their selected category A units, but overall how much of an advantage does your average Chinese unit have over their NK counterpart?
Obviously this would be something of a moot point when considering China's massive numerical and economic superiority but I guess I'm just curious as to how 'clean' the PRC could cut such an invasion.

Officer of Engineers
23 Nov 06,, 01:17
Whatever technical advantage the Chinese may have is neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity.

-{SpoonmaN}-
23 Nov 06,, 01:53
Whatever technical advantage the Chinese may have is neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity.

Hmm good point.

YellowFever
22 Dec 06,, 07:55
OOE I've been wondering, what's your take on the level of technical superiority the PLA enjoys over the KPA? I would imagine the PLA would be at least a fair way ahead by now, certainly in their selected category A units, but overall how much of an advantage does your average Chinese unit have over their NK counterpart?
Obviously this would be something of a moot point when considering China's massive numerical and economic superiority but I guess I'm just curious as to how 'clean' the PRC could cut such an invasion.



Whatever technical advantage the Chinese may have is neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity.


Colonel, my knowledge of the PLA and the KPA can be loosely fitted on top of a pin so if you'll indulge me in a few questions:

1) How modernized is the PLA? Are their Army/AF/Navy as integrated as the US? Can they pull of joint branch operations seemlessly?

2) If the Chinese and the Norks fight, do you see something like OIF or more set battles such as we had in WWII, with massive front lines?

3) You say technical superiority the chinese enjoy over the KPA (if any) will be neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity. Does that apply to the US as well? What I'm asking is does the US (which is probably even more technically advanced than the PLA) enjoy enough of a technical superiorty to overcome the terrain or it's unfamiliarity.

4) I agree that China or SK can topple KJI very easily (by withholding aid) but Japan and US combining to topple KJI is something I never thought about. Why do you suppose the US haven't taken this route?

zraver
22 Dec 06,, 09:06
If I may, not trying to intrude on OoE, but many people don't understand the dynamic in Korea. Kim is a stalinist style dictator which means he is paranoid and deservedly so. His two big fears are a coup and beign saddamized.

Before OiF as long kept the army and his security forces happy and working agaisnt each other, he was safe. OIF and what happened to Saddam terrifies Kim. it doesn't matter that he is imune form attack, unless he strikes first- he's paranoid. Bushes liunking him to the Axis of Evil and Saddam beign put of trial where he faces justice like a common crimminal is all the proof he needs that the US is out to get him (saddamize him).


1) How modernized is the PLA? Are their Army/AF/Navy as integrated as the US? Can they pull of joint branch operations seemlessly?

NO, but no one can. The question is can they work togehter well enough to get the job done. I think they can.


2) If the Chinese and the Norks fight, do you see something like OIF or more set battles such as we had in WWII, with massive front lines?

Neither, OoE has said the 39th is in the area and the PLAN has the ability to move about 2 divisions in a single sortie with amphib capability and several air assualt units. If the PRC was going to go after Kim, I expext to see the PLA jump the border in force along with airborne airmobile troops seizng crucial points to facilitate rapid transit to Pongyang down the coastal roads while more airborne troops and the PLAN drops off troops near the capitol to establish a beachhead.

There is jack sh*t Army of DPRK can do to stop this except blackmail South Korea.

The North Korean army does not have alot of mobility or flexability and would be very vulnerable to PLAAF marauders if it tried to move in the open. It's one big advantage is artillery and it is almost all facing the wrong the way.

What is does have to use is 20 million hostages. If Kim pulled decides to pull a Hitler or Saddam he could imolate Seoul before the PLA could dig him out from what ever rock he is under. North korea has been building to survive a US air assualt for decades so assumadly has a multiple redundant hard wired communications system meaning Kim will always be in contact with units who choose to remain loyal.

I think if China/US/South Korea could figure out a way to safeguard Seoul China would deal with Kim.


3) You say technical superiority the chinese enjoy over the KPA (if any) will be neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity. Does that apply to the US as well? What I'm asking is does the US (which is probably even more technically advanced than the PLA) enjoy enough of a technical superiorty to overcome the terrain or it's unfamiliarity.

Yes it applies to the US as well. US forces in South Korea are on a defensive posture in both orginisation and training. They lack enough signifigant airmobile, engineering, artillery, and armor assets to breach the DMZ. In fact the US Army as a whole might not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ without taking unnacpetable losses, at least not fast enough to save Seoul.

China does have the best chance of causing a friendly coup however. If ever the world needed Divine Providence to deliver a massive coronary Kim is the man who needs it.

YellowFever
22 Dec 06,, 21:45
Yes it applies to the US as well. US forces in South Korea are on a defensive posture in both orginisation and training. They lack enough signifigant airmobile, engineering, artillery, and armor assets to breach the DMZ. In fact the US Army as a whole might not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ without taking unnacpetable losses, at least not fast enough to save Seoul.


Thanks for the answers.

US forces in SK are on a defensive posture and I agree 100% that they are in no shape to invade anything. But I'm having a hard time believing the whole US army (or whatever we can get into the theater of operation) will not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ... Or at least topple the closet movie director. I know a little less about military strategy as I do about the PLA and KPA :biggrin: but I don't forsee massive charges up the DMZ in the first few days but rather an extensive air campaign or maybe even carpet bombing of DPRK's front line. Only problem with my wonderful militarily genius strategy is that the people of SK might be living under a hail of artillary shells while we slowly whittel down KJI's army. :biggrin:

Officer of Engineers
22 Dec 06,, 23:07
To add to Zraver's insights,

The PLA's idea of a joint force is a schedule. Each branch got a specific area within a specific time limit and has to leave after that time limit is up regardless if they achieved their OPOBJs or not.

There is no such thing as CAS and if PLAAF planes flies beneath a certain height, they are fair game for Chinese AD gunners.

The PLA believes in Battles of Annhilation but not the full massive slug outs that you see in the movies. They like something like a division against a battalion. They are not an infantry army but an artillery army. They love their artillery and almost all their manouvers is to try to bring their artillery to bear.

However, this being said, the military is not the force of choice to collapse KJI. As indicated before, both Beijing and Seoul can get rid of KJI by doing absolutely nothing.

The NK nuke tests brought that straight home to KJI. There's a limit to which he can push the Chinese and the Chinese shown it to him. All my reading suggests that the Chinese has had enough of that clown and has started closing down the illegal activities and bringing the border to a full check.

zraver
23 Dec 06,, 00:08
Thanks for the answers.

US forces in SK are on a defensive posture and I agree 100% that they are in no shape to invade anything. But I'm having a hard time believing the whole US army (or whatever we can get into the theater of operation) will not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ... Or at least topple the closet movie director. I know a little less about military strategy as I do about the PLA and KPA :biggrin: but I don't forsee massive charges up the DMZ in the first few days but rather an extensive air campaign or maybe even carpet bombing of DPRK's front line. Only problem with my wonderful militarily genius strategy is that the people of SK might be living under a hail of artillary shells while we slowly whittel down KJI's army. :biggrin:

North Koreas's side of the DMZ has thousands of HARTs (Hardend Artillery sites each needing a direc thit to take out. Belt after belt after blet of mines, bunkers pill boxes and fighting postions by the thousandsa and unlike Iraq no open flanks thanks to the mountains.

The US Army could chew through it with time, but not fast enough to save Seoul. The USMC might be able to outflank the DMZ, but we dont have enough sealift to keep them supported if the army cannot get through fast enough.

Officer of Engineers
23 Dec 06,, 04:44
Zravaer,

An interesting thought just entered my head. What could the Americans do to help the Chinese get KJI first. Obviously, the Chinese had a green light or at least did not get a read light and the Chinese decided it couldn't be done. What can the Americans offer to get it done?

zraver
23 Dec 06,, 05:15
More accuretly, what can China offer the US and South Korea. In this scenerio I am thinking Kim has decided on war and theres no way around it Seoul is a sa good as dead and the nulear threat is real. Korea glowing in the dark is one thing that would draw the PRC in. The biggest assets the US can add to facilitate the PLA's arrival at Ponyang are airpower, sealift, airlift and USMc troops.

I am assuming that the US Army and RoKA will be fighting and dying along the DMZ and the failure of the North Korean invasion is what has caused the nuclear flashpoint.

USAF isolates Ponyang trapping Kim in the city and blankets the southern/western coast from a certain point down preventing the DPRK moving troops from the front. USMC units and perhaps airassult units seize the coastl roads leading to ponyang and set airheads further trapping Kim in the city, the also seize airfeidls with runways big enough for comercial sized jets.

USAF also hammers rocket sites and airfeilds capable of handling bombers armed with DPRK nukes.

USN Aegis vessels ring the pennisula to protect Japan

Becuase the US can strike form over the horizon with marines and is already within helicopter range. They can set up the beach and airheads faster and safe than the PLA can. Once set up, the PLAN and PLAAF can deleiver amphib forces and airborne forces in safety to set up the acutal seige of the city while the PLA races down from the North.

The chance of failure is high. Such an invasion would work no problem, the DPRK is orented in the wrong direction, but keeping a determined foe from popping a nuke... However a joint operation offers the best alternative to a tit for tat nuclear exchange which none of the major players wants.

For the PRC It also puts the PLA firmly incontrol of the border and gives them the ability to "dictate" terms on the Korean unification.

For the US and South Korea, the DPRK is no longer a threat and re-unifiaction is probalby around the corner.

Blademaster
23 Dec 06,, 05:28
South Korea doesn't want to be unified to a dirt poor starving country that S. Korea has to shell out hundreds of billions of dollars to raise the standard of living as comparable to S. Korea. All S. Korea wants is to remove the nuthead from N. Korea and start it on a non-threatening progressive level without any nukes.

One question: If Kim dies, who is the chosen successor? I have not heard any news or report who is the designated successor. In every dictatorship, there's gotta be a designated successor such as a first born son or such. So far I haven't seen anything which is weird because the first thing you do when you consolidate power as a dictator is to find a designated successor so that way you ensure the loyalties of your followers and keeping your designated successor under your control. It seems to me that the inner circle will make a power play or such.

Officer of Engineers
23 Dec 06,, 05:30
Somethings bother me with your scenario. If the USMC could not support their own beachheads, how are they going to support a PLAMC one? The Chinese could move 4 corps up front and probably another 3 with a 30 day warning but I don't see how they're going to be effective amphibously. If the USMC can't do it, then how are the Chinese going to do it?

Officer of Engineers
23 Dec 06,, 05:32
One question: If Kim dies, who is the chosen successor?

KJI's elder son is currently being groomed. He's not ready but the chances are that KJI's reign won't be passed on. The Chinese are squeezing him tight.

zraver
23 Dec 06,, 05:43
Somethings bother me with your scenario. If the USMC could not support their own beachheads, how are they going to support a PLAMC one? The Chinese could move 4 corps up front and probably another 3 with a 30 day warning but I don't see how they're going to be effective amphibously. If the USMC can't do it, then how are the Chinese going to do it?

The USMC can support its beachhead, it just can't get much farther becuase of small numbers. The idea is to set up beachheads so the PLAN can land 2 divsions of PLA mech troops who can join with the USMC's mobile units rush to reinforce the PLA troops coming into the airbridges set up by the 82/101 to physically isolate Ponyang until the PLA's heavy units arrive from China.

Remember I am basing my theory on Kim already haivng gone to war, failing in his invasion and firm intel that he has decided to go nuclear. China doesn't want that for many and various reasons. The US doesn't hav ethe combat power to do it alone and has to go nuclear in repsonce unless China can offer an alternative.

Blademaster,


South Korea doesn't want to be unified to a dirt poor starving country that S. Korea has to shell out hundreds of billions of dollars to raise the standard of living as comparable to S. Korea. All S. Korea wants is to remove the nuthead from N. Korea and start it on a non-threatening progressive level without any nukes.

my scenerio is predicated on the fact that South Korea is already wrecked and Seoul has been flattened by war. Millions are already dead. The Koreas are already going to need rebuilding.

Officer of Engineers
23 Dec 06,, 06:07
Can this be achieved without cross training? You're talking two very different armies with very different command structures and thinking. And blue-on-blue risks are extremely high.

zraver
23 Dec 06,, 06:16
But less than the risk of a nuclear exchange. But if the risk is to high the US foirces might not venture out behoynd the actual air and beach heads.

YellowFever
24 Dec 06,, 00:15
God, I love this:

A Total amateur in these affairs (me) asks a few dumb questions and a whole bunch of military professional answers! :biggrin:

Thanks, guys....

How probable is your scenario zraver?

I agree both China and the US probably wants to see someone else in control of NORK but I don't see them wanting it badly enough to cooperate to such extent.

zraver
24 Dec 06,, 05:06
How probable? I don't know I do know China does not want a nuclear exchange near its borders and the US doesn't want to use nukes if ther eis another way. My scenerio isn't exaclty my own, military writers have proposed similar solutions in various books before.

Officer of Engineers
24 Dec 06,, 05:41
PEACE MISSION 2005 - The Sino-Russian military exercise which included amphibous landings ... within shooting distance of North Korea.

Defcon 6
24 Dec 06,, 07:00
how about the US not paying for military intervention. why are we the ones racking up our defecit over this crap.

Officer of Engineers
24 Dec 06,, 07:58
Seems cheap to me. American money and South Korean blood doing what's right.

zraver
24 Dec 06,, 08:41
PEACE MISSION 2005 - The Sino-Russian military exercise which included amphibous landings ... within shooting distance of North Korea.


And yet Kim didn't get the hint.


Defcon 6 how about the US not paying for military intervention. why are we the ones racking up our defecit over this crap.

Letting several billion people world wide ove rthe years live in peace and safety is well worth the treasure and blood we've spent.

Officer of Engineers
24 Dec 06,, 13:16
And yet Kim didn't get the hint.

I'm not sure we've got the hint. During that ex, we've been saying it was for Taiwan. Now, looking back and further reading the 39GA's training, they may have been for Korea but it certainly was not publicized that way.

Asim Aquil
24 Dec 06,, 14:09
More nations would go nuclear faster than America can attack them all. Nuclear weapons would just have to be accepted in the future. America's just going to help delay it, and that too not by much.

The only way anyone EVER taking the nuclear disarmament argument seriously is when someone gets up and says "Ok lets ALL disarm".

Similar case with Iran. Israel can nuke Iran, Iran should be able to nuke Israel. Arabs now want nukes too because of Israel.

You can nuke NK, so should NK be able to nuke you.

Officer of Engineers
24 Dec 06,, 14:43
You can nuke NK, so should NK be able to nuke you.

The Chinese won't allow it.

Asim Aquil
24 Dec 06,, 15:45
China wouldn't physically stop it either nor will allow a US attack. It's main purpose of support to NK is to keep US and its allies away from China.

The Chinese objections to NK shouldn't be misunderstood to assume that the Chinese would turn their back on them any time soon. NK depended on China for 80% of its food and energy needs, so China could've easily flexed its muscle long ago to influence a desicion. Whatever's happening right now probably is going to be accepted by China in the long run.

Officer of Engineers
24 Dec 06,, 16:26
Are you in Antarctica? What the hell do you think the Chinese are doing? They've had enough and is closing down KJI's enterprises. His border criminal activities are being shut down one by one. His ringleaders are being arrested. Some even carrying NK diplomatic papers. They have not released NK funds and all NK warehouses in China are now in PAP hands.

And get this through your head. The NKs don't have a nuke. They have a dud.

Asim Aquil
24 Dec 06,, 17:25
so you think China is going to join hands and you both will attack NK now like one big happy family?

aaaaand how did the last talks end...?

Of course its a dud, so? Still a pretty big boom.

Hey I agree China's a little frustrated over North Korea being so uncontrollable but the reason its supported NK in the first place was to prevent war. I think there was way too much international condemnation of NK when it conducted the test. It would have been PR suicide if China still didn't get tough on NK.

zraver
24 Dec 06,, 20:10
so you think China is going to join hands and you both will attack NK now like one big happy family?

aaaaand how did the last talks end...?

Of course its a dud, so? Still a pretty big boom.

Hey I agree China's a little frustrated over North Korea being so uncontrollable but the reason its supported NK in the first place was to prevent war. I think there was way too much international condemnation of NK when it conducted the test. It would have been PR suicide if China still didn't get tough on NK.


China doe snot owe Kim anything, it like all natiosn will look out for itself. Kim has becoem a liability that could expose China to radioactive fallout, and criple 1-3 major trading partners (They may not like Japan but they like the Yen), and subject china to a flood of refugees.

So yes if push come sot shove working with the US to achive a solution to the Korean problem is not to far out in left feild.

Officer of Engineers
25 Dec 06,, 01:40
so you think China is going to join hands and you both will attack NK now like one big happy family?

Who said anything about joining hands. This is a one China show.


aaaaand how did the last talks end...?

And how fast did China replaced the border guards with PLA troops and shut the border tight? How fast did China cancelled three oil shipments? How fast did China demanded loans repayment? That's what happenned the last time.


Of course its a dud, so? Still a pretty big boom.

For a nuke, it was a dud, not worth the effort. They could have done better damage with thermobarics.


Hey I agree China's a little frustrated over North Korea being so uncontrollable but the reason its supported NK in the first place was to prevent war. I think there was way too much international condemnation of NK when it conducted the test. It would have been PR suicide if China still didn't get tough on NK.

It was far more than that. The Chinese lost of Face is unrecoverable. They've sheltered the NKs from collapse and gone to bat to prevent harm to their country to the point of putting them under the Chinese nuclear umbrella and promising that they will guarantee their national sovereignty and then, this slap in their face.

No one is saving KJI now. The question is how to manage his removal but make no mistake, the Chinese have determined that he shall be removed.

YellowFever
25 Dec 06,, 05:13
I agree with the Colonel.

Both SKorea and Japan are huge trading partners with China.
If either of them are threatened, it would not be in China's best interest.

On the other hand, NKorea (more specifically, KJI) is nothing but a pain in the ass, despite the purpose it serves to the Chinese (that of being a buffer).

I think it's a matter of time before military actions are taken.

More likely it'll be a Chinese backed coup rather than a full scale invasion....

Asim Aquil
25 Dec 06,, 06:45
Who said anything about joining hands. This is a one China show.


More likely it'll be a Chinese backed coup rather than a full scale invasion....

I can see that happening if the opportunity is ever presented to China in their lap. But they'd not want the US near it in any case. NK has to continue to be a buffer state for the Chinese.

But still its a fluid situation. I won't agree with you in stating that, that is the only fate left for KJI.

zraver
25 Dec 06,, 11:46
And why exactly would China rather have a US nuclear responce on North Korea vs a joint operation to rmeove KJI?

xrough
09 Jan 07,, 09:09
It would be better for China to stay away in the NK's issue and convince NK's to disarm because if ever that US will do the final job, China is not ready yet to stop it.

Archer
09 Jan 07,, 14:46
Sir,

Over at CDF, we're discussing an PRC-NK war scenario and the question that keeps popping up is why ain't the Chinese invading?

The NKs are the source of NE China's criminal problems including counterfeit currency, drugs, gambling, extortion, gang wars, prostitution, and illegal arms. The NKs are doing more to hurt China than Noreiga did when he was Panama's dictator.

Sir, the fact is that the NK serves as a good tool to keep SK, Japan in check. It also acts as a useful client state for other states like Pak, to receive tech from.

Strategic reasons make it a nice ally to have, even if it is a pain in the butt sometimes.

Dreadnought
09 Jan 07,, 17:41
And why exactly would China rather have a US nuclear responce on North Korea vs a joint operation to rmeove KJI?


Finger pointing and gleening info sounds about on target.;)

Officer of Engineers
09 Jan 07,, 18:19
Strategic reasons make it a nice ally to have, even if it is a pain in the butt sometimes.

With friends like these, who needs enemies?