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Leader
24 Jun 04,, 22:24
An upset in the making?

By PETER WORTHINGTON

Which poll to believe?

The Globe and Mail has the Liberals six points ahead of the Conservatives (34% to 28%), while the National Post has the Conservatives widening their lead and likely to win 126 seats to the Liberals 95.

What goes on here? That's quite a discrepancy.

Personally, I'm inclined to favour the unscientific America Online Internet poll, in which 51% of 5,527 subscribers said they intend to vote Conservative, 25% Liberal and 13% NDP. The Bloc Quebecois -- small potatoes in English Canada -- got 1% of the AOL vote, with 9% undecided.

Of the issues, government accountability was tops with 39%, health 28% the economy 18%. Defence and gun control were 4% each, gay marriages 7%. Unscientific, sure, but that's not a bad indication of what's happening in Canada.

The general election on Monday is the first since 1979 that seems a genuine contest. That was the one in which Joe Clark's Tories edged Pierre Trudeau's Liberals (136 seats to 114) for a few moments -- until Joe forgot he couldn't count and lost a confidence vote.

In 1980, Trudeau returned (147-103) until his walk in the snow and he allowed John Turner to be PM for three months. Then two elections of huge majorities for Brian Mulroney's Tories, before Kim Campbell inherited the PM's job in 1993 and promptly lost to Jean Chretien's Liberals (177-2). Liberals were blessed (or cursed) with no viable opposition. Until now.

The 2004 vote has, at this moment, an uncanny parallel with the mood of the 1980 U.S. presidential election, when the media (Canadian and American) mostly felt Ronald Reagan was something of a mad-bomber and a loony tune who had no chance against Jimmy Carter. (The Sun was an exception). Only the American people liked Reagan before he was elected president. The effete, self-adoring intellectual elite viewed him as dumb and dangerous.

Just as some today decry Stephen Harper's "hidden agenda," so 1980 pundits and press decried Reagan's platform. These same types once felt Bush shouldn't be president because he couldn't name the presidents of India, Pakistan, Chechnya. Well, every petty tyrant in the world now knows Bush's name -- as they quickly knew Reagan's name.

No one suggests Harper isn't smart. But the guy whom the media and others thought lacked charisma now gets rock- star treatment in the boondocks.

Political wiseacres know Harper won't win anything in Quebec. They say if elected PM he'll privatize health services, strangle the cities, relegate gays to the closet, be a bogeyman.

All nonsense and it's not catching on because, like Reagan, Harper doesn't come across as scary, doesn't rant or scream (like Layton), is courteous and doesn't grimace and make faces (like Martin). He listens to people and seems reasonable.

Mostly critics snipe at Harper for fear he'll emulate Alberta's health care which leans towards user fees and private clinics. This horrifies Eastern lefties. Yet independent surveys show Alberta has the best health care in Canada. Odd.

Canadians are conditioned to dread "two-tier health care" when, in fact, we already have two- and three-tiered health care. If you're at the bottom and need attention, you may die while waiting in line.

If you're an athlete, politician, celebrity, a big name, or if you know the right people, you get preferential treatment. That's not sinister, it's life. How many doctors go to the end of the queue? It's only if you have money and can pay for immediate treatment, that you can't buy it here but have to buy it in the U.S. Nutty. Making health care affordable and efficient should be the priority -- not pretending that everyone is treated the same. Back to the AOL straw poll. If the Conservative numbers stay steady, an upset seems in the making.

About time.
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Columnists/Toronto/Peter_Worthington/2004/06/24/pf-511586.html

List
26 Jun 04,, 02:24
That's an extremely silly article. It's hard to even explain how bad it is to someone who isn't Canadian/doesn't have a firm grasp of Canadian politics. It's sad that a Canadian would actually write something so dull.

First, those newspapers. Both are popular national papers, though the post seems to be in a constant struggle to stay afloat. The Globe and Mail is a tad left of center. They support the war in Iraq, however are socially liberal, and supportive of public healthcare, etc. They recently published an editorial analyzing both leaders of the two most popular parties(the liberal and conservative parties), and suggesting that it's safer to vote liberal, given the relative inexperience and nonexistant record of the leader of the conservatives. The editorial was entitled, "The Safe Choice Is To Do No Harm." In constrat, the National Post is extremely right wing. They recently published an editorial entitled, "On June 28, vote Conservative." One can sort of see why the newspapers would happen to release contrasting polls.

Trusting the AOL poll is extraordinarily stupid. It seems, for example, to leave out the Green Party of Canada. Our Green Party, unlike those found in many other nations, is actually quite conservative overall. They just have a number of pro environment policies. They also have around 6% of the popular vote, and a decent chance to win at least one seat in the house of commons in the upcoming election.

The Bloc Quebecois, considered "small potatoes" in English Canada, are huge in Quebec. Quebec happens to have almost a quarter of the Country's population, and at the moment, the Bloc is likely to win most of the seats in Quebec. In fact, the bloc will probably win around 20% of the total seats, despite what that rediculous poll implies. If a minority government results from the upcoming election, the leading party will likely require support by either the Bloc or the NDP to get things done.

The NDP is Canada's ultra left wing party. It's currently hovering at around 17% support in the polls, more than the Bloc, however it will likely get far fewer seats due to our election system. In the 1960s, a Liberal minority under Lester Pearson was forced to rely on NDP assistance in parliament. This time saw the introduction of Medicare, the Canada Pension Plan, and a new flag, among other things.

The Liberal party is somewhat deceptively named. While the Liberal party of the 60s, 70s, and 80s drove the country into debt running huge deficits, the Liberal party of the 90s was a whole different story. The Liberals under Jean Chretien, with Paul Martin, our current prime minister, as finance minister, turned a ~50 billion a year deficit into 7 straight years of surplus, paying ~50 billion off the debt. They also provided Canadians with the largest tax cut in history. Unfortunately, during this time, healthcare suffered, and the Liberal promises for childcare went unfufilled. One of the major reasons voters have turned against them is the so called sponsorship scandal, which wasted in the range of 100 million dollars. Some Canadians are also upset of the gun registry, which went way over budget, costing well over a billion. It must be understood, however, that the liberal's major problem right now isn't so much losing seats to the conservatives, though they are. Their problem is that they're going to lose tons of seats in Quebec to the Bloc. Quebec, combined with Ontario, makes up more than half the country. Without excellent support in both provinces, it's hard to get a majority government.

The Conservative party of Canada is actually an amalgamation of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The article mentions Brian Mulroney, which is good, because he is often mentioned as being one of the worst prime ministers in Canadian history. Elected under the assumption that he would fix the deficit/debt run up during the Pearson and Trudeau administrations, he actually managed to make things worse. He eventually stepped down, and was replaced by Kim Campbell, who proceeded to get absolutely destroyed by Jean Chretien's Liberals. The Reform party, a more right wing piece of the progressive conservatives, separated, and eventually became the Canadian Alliance, which merged back with the progressive conservatives to form the Conservative Party of Canada.

The Conservatives promise to revive the Canadian military, even expand it, and indeed, they intend to put more into the military than the Liberals. Unfortunately, neither party is willing to put in close to enough to accomplish this goal.

This article makes a number of mistakes when analyzing the Conservatives and their leader, Stephen Harper. Firstly, they don't currently have the intention of privatizing Canada's healthcare system. In fact, their healthcare package is remarkably similar to the Liberal's. (As a slight aside to this, Canada still has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, despite all the complainers.) They do, however, want to give more independence to provinces. Next, it compares Stephen Harper's popularity, and chance of an upset, to Reagan. This demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of Canada and its people, the same kind that could lead to the belief that the AOL poll could actually be even close to accurate. Most Canadians aren't even willing to vote conservative. Harper fails to represent the views of too many urban Canadians. He's socially conservative, which is a big no-no in Canada, and he's said that he would have sent Canadian troops to Iraq. 2/3rds of Canadians did not want to send troops to Iraq, and it wasn't done. While the Liberals have lost a lot of their support, most of that support went to the NDP and the Bloc, both of which are fairly left wing. The conservatives actually aren't doing much better in the polls than the alliiance/reform was in the last election.

If the conservative party were to form the government, which is possible, it would encounter virtually insurmountable barriers, and would likely have to dissolve parliament and call another election fairly quickly. While the Liberals would have little trouble aligning with the NDP and/or the Bloc on a number of issues, the Conservatives appose the other three parties almost everywhere. They are bitter enemies with the Liberals, are entirely opposed on just about every issue by the NDP, and at odds with the Bloc everywhere except their view that provinces should be more independent.

Despite fears of the conservative social agenda, they would be utterly unable to pass anything on their rediculous childcare platform, nevermind abortion or same-sex marriages, at least not without a majority government. As I've previously stated, their aren't enough voters in Canada willing to consider voting Conservative to give them a majority. This is not a case of Reagan.

I hope I provided a more accurate, if confusing, picture of the current Canadian political climate. As you can see, the AOL poll he bases much of his article on cannot possibly be close to accurate. Any poll that gives the Bloc only 1% support cannot be taken seriously, and even if it could, that 11% missing support would most likely go to the Liberals, not the conservatives or the NDP. But really, it's an AOL poll, which wouldn't be representative of Canadians anyway. Few city dwellers still use AOL, which is one of the crappiest internet services available. Thus they can't possibly represent a good distribution of the population.

Leader
26 Jun 04,, 02:46
This explains a lot, thanks. And I agree with you on the AOL poll. From a statically stand point it is completely worthless. Real polls are randomize and stratified. I see voluntary response polls all the time those result are only useful in figuring out what the people who took the poll thought. Any attempt extrapolation to a large population would be waste of time.

List
29 Jun 04,, 07:28
A brief follow up, noting that some of the seats aren't finalized.

The Liberals did much better than expected, scoring in the 136 seat range, and getting around 37% of the popular vote. They managed to keep most of their seats in Ontario, the Atlantic provinces, and British Columbia. They lost a bit less than expected in Quebec, though they still took a massive beating. All in all they're in ok shape, given what was expected to happen. Only an alliance of the other three major parties can take them down, and they only have to convince one of the three parties to support any individual piece of legislation.

The NDP won big, increasing theirs seats from 14 to ~23. They were projected at 25-27 seats, so they didn't underperform that badly. They got around 15% of the popular vote. They will likely have a huge influence of Canadian politics in the next few years as the Liberals may come to depend on them in parliament.

The Bloc Quebecois did very well, going from ~38 seats to ~54. They were expected to get 60+, but they still managed a sizeable increase. They have 12-13% of the popular vote, obviously concentrated in Quebec. This is good news for seperatists in Quebec, and may renew the seperatist movement.

The Conservatives were the big losers, far underperforming the pre-election polls/seat projections. They're coming in at around 95 seats, with less than 30% of the popular vote. The only single party they can align with to pass legislation is the Liberals, and that is unlikely to happen. The NDP and the Bloc are opposed to the Conservatives in far more areas than the Liberals, and support from both would be required to circumvent the Liberas.

The Conservatives failed to win the seats they needed in Ontario, making no inroads at all in Toronto. They didn't dent Quebec, and actually lost support in the Atlantic provinces. This could be due to a number of issues. Their leader, Stephen Harper, sent out an unpopular memo suggesting that the leader of the Liberals supports child pornography. The premier of Alberta made unpopular comments about the privitization of healthcare. Towards the end of the campaign, Stephen Harper described the Conservatives as a western power party, which likely alienated key voters in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, as well as possibly British Columbia. Also, a large number of people probably realized that while they wanted to punish the Liberals for past offences, they didn't want a Conservative government in power. People wanted a Liberal government without the Liberals, and no party properly reflected those needs. Harper's unpopular views on social conservatives likely hurt him in the end. Though they were required to keep much of his core support, they probably caused moderate voters to change course at the last minute. Lastly, the Liberal attack ads are being cited as being very successful in scaring Canadian voters away from the Conservatives. They also likely succeeded in scaring voters away from the NDP and Bloc, as votes for those parties in certain ridings could have helped the Conservatives win more seats.

Ray
29 Jun 04,, 10:31
It is said in the newspapers out here based on foreign sources that there will be a Coalition.

ZFBoxcar
29 Jun 04,, 16:31
I don't think there will be a coalition. It's so much more convienient for the Liberals to go it alone. If they want to pass tax-cuts/pro-US policies/defence budget increases they get Conservative support in Parliament. If they want to raise taxes/cut defence/start new social programs they get NDP support in Parliament. It's as if the Liberals never lost their majority! The Liberals have a strong enough minority that they only need 1 other party to back any given peice of legislation, making the opposition into rubber stamps.

bodybag
01 Jul 04,, 23:44
What was the deal ,when Harper was accusing Martin of supporting child pornography.

Jay
02 Jul 04,, 00:04
Lot of PIO's (People of Indian Origin) won...

"Most incumbent Indo-Canadians returned and the Liberal victory was due in the province of Ontario, which has the largest concentration of immigrant populations, especially Indians and Chinese. By 1 am on Tuesday morning, following election day, Canadians gave a rocking victory to the Liberal Party and to incumbent Prime Minister Paul Martin, who took the chance to declare elections under the cloud of a major scandal that shook his party's popularity."

http://sify.com/news/nri/fullstory.php?id=13510486

List
02 Jul 04,, 00:51
The Conservatives put forth press releases entitled "Paul Martin supports child pornography?" and "The NDP Caucus Supports Child Pornography?". Harper changed the title of at least the first one to "How Tough is Paul Martin on Child Pornography?", but he never apologized for the accusation. This was all in reference to the NDP and Liberals shooting down the Conservative(Alliance?) anti-child porn/abuse bill. These press releases were done right after the killer of a 10 year old girl in Toronto admitted that his child sex fantasies were fueled by child porn on the internet. This made the press releases seem opportunistic.

Besides, the Liberals and the NDP opposed the legislation for a number of reasons, none of which were that they supported child porn. Incidentally, Canada has some of the toughest child porn laws in the developed world, and new ones were being pushed along before the election was called.

As a side note, the NDP dropped down to 19 seats in the final count, and can no longer guarantee the Liberals a majority. A few recounts may take place in certain ridings, but it's unlikely they will change anything.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 01:00
Thanks for explanation .I think this was one of the main reasons that they lost.What the hell were they thinking?
Harper should stick just to finnances and all those liberal affairs.

Confed999
02 Jul 04,, 01:03
opposed the legislation for a number of reasons, none of which were that they supported child porn.
It allmost never is, but that is the nature of partisan politics. In Canada are they allowed to add other proposed laws to each other? Seems like that is an often used tactic to stop a law from being passed here, they just hook on something stupid nobody would vote for.

List
02 Jul 04,, 09:27
That wasn't the problem. The Conservative motion was aimed at closing a loophole in the existing law that allows for an artistic merit defence. It was shot down, I think, primarily because it would have outlawed so many legitimate present/future works of art. I believe the leader of the Bloc Quebecois said something to the effect that if the Conservative motion was passed, it would outlaw Michelangelo's Sistine Chapel because of the naked child angels on the ceiling. If I'm not mistaken, the supreme court of Canada has already strictly defined the limits of the artistic merit defence anyway, so it's unlikely that it could be used in its current form to defend child pornography.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 17:58
I hate those fat stupid yahoos from Alberta,BC,Saskatchewan,with their pickup trucks and cowboys hats.
.Over there is even worst than in texas.At least in Texas is nice and warm all year round.
They should make some law to prohibit some people from voting.
I feel anyway that conserves will win sooner or later and then we become
northern Mexico. :frown:

Confed999
02 Jul 04,, 18:39
That wasn't the problem.
I was just curious if they do that same stuff there. Canadian politics really doesn't affect me at all, except for having to listen to our huge Canadian retirement population complain.

ZFBoxcar
02 Jul 04,, 19:18
I hate those fat stupid yahoos from Alberta,BC,Saskatchewan,with their pickup trucks and cowboys hats.
.Over there is even worst than in texas.At least in Texas is nice and warm all year round.
They should make some law to prohibit some people from voting.
I feel anyway that conserves will win sooner or later and then we become
northern Mexico.

Lowering taxes and cutting social programs is how you increase economic growth, it doesn't take a country backwords as you say. It moves them forward. As Churchill said, a nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handles. Redistributing wealth can only decrease the wealth of the nation. Reducing federal influence can only increase it. Those "fat stupid yahoos" would like the word 'province' to be more than just lines on a map. Decentralization. Increase provincial power. And if the Tories hadn't made certain errors, a large part of Ontario would have stood along side them. And 31.4% of them did anyways. So did 32.3% of Newfoundland, 31.1% of Newbrunswick, 28% of Nova Scotia, 30.7% of PEI. But I suppose they all must be "fat stupid yahoos".

Leader
02 Jul 04,, 20:05
I hate those fat stupid yahoos from Alberta,BC,Saskatchewan,with their pickup trucks and cowboys hats.
.Over there is even worst than in texas.At least in Texas is nice and warm all year round.
They should make some law to prohibit some people from voting.
I feel anyway that conserves will win sooner or later and then we become
northern Mexico. :frown:


Moron

Yeah that's about right.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 20:08
Lowering taxes and cutting social programs is how you increase economic growth, it doesn't take a country backwords as you say. It moves them forward. As Churchill said, a nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handles. Redistributing wealth can only decrease the wealth of the nation. Reducing federal influence can only increase it. Those "fat stupid yahoos" would like the word 'province' to be more than just lines on a map. Decentralization. Increase provincial power. And if the Tories hadn't made certain errors, a large part of Ontario would have stood along side them. And 31.4% of them did anyways. So did 32.3% of Newfoundland, 31.1% of Newbrunswick, 28% of Nova Scotia, 30.7% of PEI. But I suppose they all must be "fat stupid yahoos".
Tories made certain errors allright :rolleyes: tories spended their way into oblivion in ontario just like "fiscally conservative" republicans doing in the USA.
Rdistributing wealth does not work (communism hmm?)

Leader
02 Jul 04,, 20:17
Rdistributing wealth does not work (communism hmm?)

Do you believe that or are you making a feeble attempt at sarcasm?

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 20:21
Oh my God it is you Leader ,Long time no see.
I will be good boy now, I promisse.
PS,How can I remove moron word from under my avatar? :redface:

Leader
02 Jul 04,, 20:24
Oh my God it is you Leader ,Long time no see.
I will be good boy now, I promisse.
PS,How can I remove moron word from under my avatar? :redface:

Make post 700 more posts or beg Ironman to change it back.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 20:41
Make post 700 more posts or beg Ironman to change it back.
7000 posts ??I won't make it man !,I get banned again and this time for good.

Leader
02 Jul 04,, 20:44
7000 posts ??I won't make it man !,I get banned again and this time for good.

700 and if you're really good boy I'm sure he'll change it back in a week or two.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 20:50
700 and if you're really good boy I'm sure he'll change it back in a week or two.
Leader maybe you could give him a few good words about me ,you know the stuff how I changed for better and all that? ;)

Leader
02 Jul 04,, 20:57
Leader maybe you could give him a few good words about me ,you know the stuff how I changed for better and all that? ;)

I'm also going to need a little time to ensure that is the case.

bodybag
02 Jul 04,, 21:00
Thank's :biggrin: anyway!

Confed999
02 Jul 04,, 21:07
I do appreciate your change in attitude, bodybag.

ZFBoxcar
02 Jul 04,, 23:27
Tories made certain errors allright tories spended their way into oblivion in ontario just like "fiscally conservative" republicans doing in the USA.
Rdistributing wealth does not work (communism hmm?)

True, the Ernie Eves Tories blew it. The Mike Harris Tories were traditional conservatives. Eves got into that old political trap of trying to give everything to everyone when its impossible. There are different branches of conservatism. Neo-conservatism puts economic growth ahead of fiscal dicipline. BTW, the errors I was referring to were during the Harper campaign. The porn thing and the Air Canada thing. Ontarians weren't thinking about the Eves mistakes. Besides, polls during the election indicated that if an Ontario provincial election were held right then and there the Tories would be brought back because of McGuinty lies.

As for your last comment, are you agreeing with me or are you a communist/socialist? Socialism leads to stagnation and communism leads to decline. Of course, unless you live in Ayn Rand's fantasy world, socialism is a fact of the world, but it should be reduced as much as possible to ensure the greatest possible standard of living for the greatest number of people possible. Not to mention that lowering taxes actually increases tax revenue in the long run, so that the spending that actually needs to be done can be better funded.

List
03 Jul 04,, 03:54
Don't make the mistake of stereotyping the west. Just concentrate on stereotyping Alberta instead. The majority of voters in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and British Columbia voted for non-conservatives. The vote distribution was just too thin. Actually, it's funny that a number of Conservatives are pushing for proportional respresentation, when the Conservatives would have actually lost seats in a more representative system. The only parties that would have gained from it are the Green Party and the NDP.

Also, it's probably best to avoid comparing the Liberals with the Democrats and the Conservatives with the Republicans. The Conservative party does not currently offer fiscal responsibility. They do offer tax cuts, but at a very real cost in social programs. Some may not mind that, but what Americans on this board need to understand is that Canadians value their healthcare program, and want the child care programs being proposed by the Liberals and the NDP. Voting Conservative would mean damaging both. The Conservatives said they'd fix and expand the military, but they weren't even offering enough extra military spending to maintain the military at its current level(neither were the Liberals, or any other party). They proposed very high government spending overall.

Going by the Liberal record of the last decade, they've been the most fiscally responsible government in the last 40 years. Despite accusations of being "tax and spend" Liberals, they gave Canadians the largest tax cut in history.

As I said previously, the Conservatives failed to break through in Eastern Canada for a number of reasons. I think what it really came down to was people deciding in the last week that while they didn't want another Liberal government, the Conservatives would make for a terrible replacement. Stephen Harper himself said that the Conservatives represented western interests, and being socially Conservative goes against the beliefs of most Canadians. Another major issue that probably didn't effect voting decisions were the upcoming openings on the supreme court. While the last Liberal government, and the Progressive Conservative government before it were very good with judicial appointments, it would have been quite like that the Conservatives, even with a minority, would have put social conservatives on the bench.

To those that don't understand the socially conservative/liberal issues in Canada, there was a recent example in one of our newspapers. It turns out that 57% of Canadian adults support gay marriage, with only 38% opposing it. 77% of Canadians from the age of 18-~30 are in favour of it. The Conservatives were almost certainly going to hold a free vote in the house of commons on that issue, against the interests of most Canadians.

Confed999, in answer to your question, I'm not sure. I've never heard of that being a problem in Canada.

ZFBoxcar
03 Jul 04,, 04:26
Don't make the mistake of stereotyping the west. Just concentrate on stereotyping Alberta instead. The majority of voters in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and British Columbia voted for non-conservatives. The vote distribution was just too thin. Actually, it's funny that a number of Conservatives are pushing for proportional respresentation, when the Conservatives would have actually lost seats in a more representative system. The only parties that would have gained from it are the Green Party and the NDP.

If PR was done on a provincial scale (kind of like US electoral college except not winner take all) than the Tories actually would have done better. If it were just done as a nation than you're right. Most Conservatives don't want PR though. Too many countries have been screwed up by it. I like Australia's system the best. They use the first-past-the-post for their House of Commons, and PR for their Senate.


Going by the Liberal record of the last decade, they've been the most fiscally responsible government in the last 40 years. Despite accusations of being "tax and spend" Liberals, they gave Canadians the largest tax cut in history.

The Liberal party morphs every election. The Chretien Liberals were surprisingly conservative (they projected the image of being left but managed to slowly go to the right), now we are about to see the opposite. Martin was the right-wing Liberal who made the tax cut. During this election he felt he had secured the middle ground and so chased the NDP left. Now we will have a very left wing Liberal government that can pretend to be centre-right due to Paul Martin's record in the previous administration. But make no mistake, this will be the most leftwing Liberal regime since Trudeau. It can't be anything but when the united right is the only party making a case for tax cuts, and when the Liberal party is going to be leaning on the NDP for support (and the Bloc now too, which means more toadying to Quebec's demands sigh...).

Confed999
03 Jul 04,, 05:24
I'm not sure. I've never heard of that being a problem in Canada.
Thanks. ;)

List
03 Jul 04,, 10:58
If PR was done on a provincial scale (kind of like US electoral college except not winner take all) than the Tories actually would have done better.

That isn't true. If I'm understanding you correctly, doing it on a provincial scale with no winner takes all is almost exactly the same as doing it directly based on the popular vote nation wide. The Conservatives had ~29% of the popular vote, and there are a total of 308 seats. Which means the Conservatives would have ~89 seats instead of 99. If I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say, please explain.

ZFBoxcar
03 Jul 04,, 17:04
In the end, it doesn't help the Tories it just changes the seat breakdown by province, my bad. Like in Ontario the Tories would have gotten 32 or 33 seats instead of 24. But the total seat count that I got from this was 91. So either way youre right.