Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

OoE, Chinese invasion of North Korea?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • OoE, Chinese invasion of North Korea?

    Colonel, I'd like to get your opinion (and from some other military professionals) about how a Chinese invasion and occupation of North Korea would fare. Hypothetically, if the Chinese decided to invade and occupy North Korea, how many divisions would they need, how long would it take to fully occupy the country, casualties, etc.

    Also, would the North Koreans attack along the DMZ in the event of a Chinese invasion? Would they rush their divisions north, bombard Seoul with artillery, etc?
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  • #2
    Well, I would think it would take China a good while to take Nk by itself.
    Chinese forces are hardly modern, though they have massive numbers.

    Undoubtibly China WOULD win, but I would think it would take them 5-6 weeks to take Pyongyang.
    It depends on SK: If they attack at the same time, cut them figures in half.
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    - John Stuart Mill.

    Comment


    • #3
      The area around the Yalu river and North Korea in general is pretty mountainous, so there are plenty of obstacles for the PLA to cross. Moreover, invading NORK will cause what China desperatly wants to avoid, the massive influx of refugees. Right now the inflow of refugees is kept at bay by the KPA border guards, the absence of the border guards will result in a free for all.....
      The best option for China is to probably topple Kimmy boy through any disgruntled faction in the army. China can cut the food aid which will result in rationing of food supply to even the KPA. This might probably cause a mutiny. Ofcourse this also means that the public will get more desperate and further motivate them to cross the Yalu even at tremendous risk.......
      Seek Save Serve Medic

      Comment


      • #4
        Maybe China can invade NORK but the bill for rebuilding NORK should be footed by the 5 nations involved in the nuke negotiation. China might agree if USA downgrades its troop presence in East asia.....
        Seek Save Serve Medic

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by 667medic View Post
          Maybe China can invade NORK but the bill for rebuilding NORK should be footed by the 5 nations involved in the nuke negotiation. China might agree if USA downgrades its troop presence in East asia.....
          if Uncle sam pulled N.Koreans' nuclear teeth,China might consider to send troops into N.Korea to "protect Kim"

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by badguy2000 View Post
            if Uncle sam pulled N.Koreans' nuclear teeth,China might consider to send troops into N.Korea to "protect Kim"
            Unlikely, they know as well as the rest of us that the USA isn't going to physically invade the DPRK for anything less than a full-scale attack on one of their allies by the NKs. It's more likely that the USA would simply use their total air superiority to elimate the PKA in the air as a show of force, and to go about bombing the crap out of DPRK nuclear and missile installations to at least slow down their WMD program. However it seems even that isn't on the table for now, most likely due to US concerns about Northern retaliation against Seoul and the simple fact that the USA can't really afford to be fighting another war right now, especially one that would be as difficult and costly as a new Korean War would most likely be.

            Comment


            • #7
              Ok,

              Jasper Becket stated that in Feb, 2003, the PLA examined contingency plans to invade North Korea to forestall an American invasion. The idea was that since you were going to lose KJI anyway, you might as well have someone friendly rather than hostile. The PLA concluded that it was unworkable, probably because that KJI had the loyalties of all of his corps commanders and those who knows how to run the country (or at least keep it from falling apart) are on KJI's side.

              Plus, KJI's security aparatus was equal to Stalin's oraganization in most every way.

              Chinese success depends on turning one or more corps commanders to their side, either the KPA's VI or VIII Corps. It would be icing on the cake if they can turn III Corps who is guarding P'yongyang. If not, then, III Corps is the one the PLA must destroy, not defeat, it must destroy in order to secure P'yongyang.

              If none of the KPA corps turn, then the Chinese will have to go through the VI, VIII, X, and, XI Corps to get to III Corps who would be rapidly being re-enforced by VII and IX Corps.

              Array against this are the Chinese Shenyang and Beijing Miliary Regions with 4 Group Armies. The 38 and 27 GAs in the Beijing MR and the the 38 and 23 GAs in the Shenyang MR. The two MRs are also capable of fielding some 15 independent manouver, fire, combat service, and combat support brigades and regiments. Undoubtly, the PLA would also assign the 15th Airborne Corps to the operation.

              While the numerics would suggest on the KPA side, it should be noted that the immediate forces facing the Chinese are reserves while the 38GA and 39GA are the 2 of the 3 heavy Chinese formations. The 27GA is at full strength while the 23GA is at 25% category B strength. The KPA is not without some strength in the 108th Mechanized Corps and the 124th Mechanized Corps (both essentially div(+)).

              Key to all this is passage through either the KPA VIII or VI Corps. The Chinese don't have time to punch through these formations. Any delay would rush forces to Pyongyang.

              If the Chinese can get passage, then, the battle rests against III Corps who would be at least pyschologically out of position (you rely on your fellow countrymen to put up a fight at least).

              III Corps, even if they are re-enforced by those two mech divisions, would be badly outmatched against 4 Chinese Group Armies and the air element, the 15ABC in what can only be described as a battle of annhilation. I've described how the PLA acheives this in the WZC. The same tactics would prevail.

              The key to all this is free passage to P'yongyang ... and the Chinese were never sure they had it.


              PS: Is this what you're looking for? Questions welcomed.
              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 23 Oct 06,, 07:38.

              Comment


              • #8
                Key to all this is passage through either the KPA VIII or VI Corps. The Chinese don't have time to punch through these formations. Any delay would rush forces to Pyongyang.
                So really it comes down to whether the Chinese can buy these guys? Do you think they (the Chinese) would stay there, or negotiate a "you pull out yours and I'll pull out mine" with the USA?
                In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                Leibniz

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by parihaka View Post
                  So really it comes down to whether the Chinese can buy these guys? Do you think they (the Chinese) would stay there, or negotiate a "you pull out yours and I'll pull out mine" with the USA?
                  Well the last thing China and America want is to be fighting eachother, and I seriously doubt either of them want to have their troops facing off across a border. As for the buying off issue, the Chinese do have an aweful lot of money these days so who knows how much they'd be willing to offer...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Colonel,

                    Thanks for the information. It's very enlightening.

                    Would the North Koreans stay neutral towards SK and the US if they were going to be destroyed by the Chinese? Or would they try to go out in a bang by taking out Seoul with artillery as they went down?

                    Maybe there's no way of telling what KJI would do...
                    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by parihaka View Post
                      So really it comes down to whether the Chinese can buy these guys?
                      It's much more than that. There is no doubt these corps commanders will take the money but can they do the job? Be it joining the advance or getting out of the way? And can they do it without being caught by the NK secret police whose reputation was far more ruthless than the East German Stasis?

                      And from the Chinese PoV, what does it accomplish? Yes, KJI is an idiot but he's their idiot. Are you going to goto war just to replace him with another idiot?

                      The Chinese had thought they could control him or at least steer him in the right directions. They've accomplished that initially with the 6 Party Talks. Well, they thought wrong.

                      And do you actually need an invasion? If you can get one of the corps commanders to do it without invasion, why not go that way? Even if you don't get a corps commander, you can collapse Kim very easily, regional stability and refugee crisis be damned.

                      Originally posted by parihaka View Post
                      Do you think they (the Chinese) would stay there, or negotiate a "you pull out yours and I'll pull out mine" with the USA?
                      Someone has to be in charge and it won't be the Americans nor the South Koreans for that matter ... and that is just fine with Washington and Seoul. Post-Saddam Iraq anyone?

                      Originally posted by Ironduke
                      Would the North Koreans stay neutral towards SK and the US if they were going to be destroyed by the Chinese? Or would they try to go out in a bang by taking out Seoul with artillery as they went down?
                      If the PLA have free passage, you're talking an action of less than 30 days. There is no way for the KPA to get into a full warfooting in that time. There might be a few incidents, heavy at times, in trying to provoke the Americans but it would be nothing like the NK drive south that we're imagining.

                      Originally posted by Ironduke
                      Maybe there's no way of telling what KJI would do...
                      Those blondes on the French Riveria would be looking pretty good.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        One possible scenario is a repeat of 1950 with UN forces driving north after smashing a NK attack. China mihgt invade to seize as much as possible to hasten the collapse to then negotiate a demilitarized but unified Republic of Korea that sees US forces leave breaking the hegemonic ring around China.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Andy Chan at CDF just pointed this out to me. Ex NORTHERN SWORD, 7 Sept.
                          Attached Files

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Planning their winter holidays?
                            In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                            Leibniz

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Captain Stephen Miles at CDF also suggest that we relook at the Sino-Russian Ex PEACE MISSION 2005.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X