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Anoop C
09 Oct 06,, 03:55
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear


3 minutes ago

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korean government officials said
North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, the South's Yonhap news agency reported.
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South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.

The director of South Korea's monitoring center that is watching for a test with sound and seismic detectors declined to immediately comment on the report. The
U.S. Geological Survey said it had detected no seismic activity in North Korea, although it was not clear whether a blast would be strong enough for its sensors.

Kate M
09 Oct 06,, 04:05
North Korea conducted its first nuclear test only a little while ago and according to a Norht Korean news report, it was successful and that there was no radioactive leakage from the test site.

Shek
09 Oct 06,, 04:35
North Korea conducted its first nuclear test only a little while ago and according to a Norht Korean news report, it was successful and that there was no radioactive leakage from the test site.

And they used Floam (TM) to encapsulate the blast to prevent seismologists from detecting the blast waves as well . . . :biggrin:

They have stealthy nuclear technology :eek:

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 04:44
This is from CNN

North Korea says it has performed nuclear test

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Monday the country has performed a successful nuclear test.

South Korean government officials also said North Korea performed its first nuclear test, the South's Yonhap news agency reported

According to KCNA, there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the Yonhap report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.

The report of the test came as Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Seoul for meetings with President Roh Moo-hyun to address the nuclear issue as well as address strains in relations between the two countries over territorial and historical disputes.

North Korea accused rival South Korea on Monday of committing a serious provocation by firing warning shots during a weekend incident in which the South says soldiers from the communist North crossed over their border.

The border shooting came Saturday. South Korean soldiers rattled off about 40 warning shots after a group of five North Korean troops crossed into the southern side of the no-man's-land separating the divided Korean peninsula, South Korea said.

No one was hurt in the incident.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Davis_Chan
09 Oct 06,, 05:16
Things are going to be crazy!

lemontree
09 Oct 06,, 05:18
North Korea has already carried a clandestine nuclear test along with the Pakistani tests in May 1998. The current furrow could be a tactic by China to take away world opinion from something more pressing.

Commando
09 Oct 06,, 05:20
North Korea tested a nuclear device around an hour ago approxiametely measuring 3.6 on the richter scale. North Korea has announced it as a success.

What happens now????????

South Korea just raised its military alertness.

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 05:23
I would suggest we wait. It's way too early to jump to any conclusions.

Speedy
09 Oct 06,, 05:24
And they used Floam (TM) to encapsulate the blast to prevent seismologists from detecting the blast waves as well . . . :biggrin:

They have stealthy nuclear technology :eek:

They better start working on their stealth technology as seismic activity has been detected eminating from North Korea with initial reports saying it is around 3.5 magnitude.

edit- USGS has just stated that seismic activity of magnitude 4.2 came from North Korea at 10:34am local time (approx 3 hours ago).

Commando
09 Oct 06,, 05:27
I just opened up a thread on the same subject lol. I don't know what to expect. South Korea just raised it military alertness. Whats gonna happen next? Is it possible South Korea will launch a full scale attack against the North??

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 05:28
North Korea has already carried a clandestine nuclear test along with the Pakistani tests in May 1998. The current furrow could be a tactic by China to take away world opinion from something more pressing.
Captain,

Which test is that? The Los Alamos Labs have decided that all nuclear materials have came from within Pakistan.

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 05:29
Whats gonna happen next? Is it possible South Korea will launch a full scale attack against the North??

We're going to see what's the actual device 1st. There's alot to be found out before anything can be decided ... but no, the SKs ain't going to attack. They're still under American command and the US has not decided on a go.

Speedy
09 Oct 06,, 05:43
Further update from USGS was the seismic activity was centred approximately 200 km northeast of Pyongyang.

InfiniteDreams
09 Oct 06,, 06:34
The current furrow could be a tactic by China to take away world opinion from something more pressing.

And what might that be?

InfiniteDreams
09 Oct 06,, 06:36
Japan and Taiwan build their own nuclear deterrents?

starsiege
09 Oct 06,, 06:54
And what might that be?

a move on taiwan maybe?

lemontree
09 Oct 06,, 06:58
Captain,

Which test is that? The Los Alamos Labs have decided that all nuclear materials have came from within Pakistan.
Sir,
After the first Pak test turned to be a dud, it is reported that the Chinese sent them a couple of their own nuke to avoid embaressment. Along with these Chinese nukes, a N. Korean nuke was also "tested".

lemontree
09 Oct 06,, 07:00
And what might that be?
Something that they want hidden from world view, till the last moment.

starsiege
09 Oct 06,, 07:00
Sir,
After the first Pak test turned to be a dud, it is reported that the Chinese sent them a couple of their own nuke to avoid embaressment. Along with these Chinese nukes, a N. Korean nuke was also "tested".

i heard that too.

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:26
North Korea claims nuclear test.

North Korea says it has carried out its first test of a nuclear weapon, the state news agency (KCNA) has reported.

It said the underground test, carried out in defiance of international warnings, was a success and had not resulted in any leak of radiation.

The White House said South Korean and US intelligence had detected a seismic event at a suspected test site.

The White House said the reported test was a "provocative act", while China denounced it as "brazen"..

In an unusually strong statement against its ally, China expressed its "resolute opposition" to the claimed test and said it "defied the universal opposition of international society".

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is in Seoul for a meeting with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, said the test was "unpardonable".

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Japan had detected seismic waves, but could not confirm whether they were from a nuclear test.

South Korea said it would "sternly respond".

President Roh has called an emergency meeting of South Korea's National Security Council and put the armed forces on a heightened state of alert.

Seoul also suspended a scheduled aid shipment to North Korea, the state news agency reported.

US White House spokesman Tony Snow said: "We expect the UN Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act."

'Historic event'

When it announced the test, KCNA described it as an "historic event that brought happiness to our military and people".

"The nuclear test will contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the Korean peninsula and surrounding region," KCNA said.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency reports that the test took place in Gilju in Hamgyong province at 1036 (0136 GMT).

The BBC's Jonathan Marcus says North Korea's claimed test does not necessarily mean it has a fully-fledged nuclear bomb or warhead that it can deliver to a target.

But the demonstration of North Korea's capability is what will shake-up the geo-politics of the region, he says.

Our correspondent says there will now be pressure on the UN Security Council to push for a resolution condemning North Korea and probably demanding a stiff menu of economic sanctions.

The Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers have held a telephone conference call with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to discuss the issue, South Korea's foreign ministry said.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Beijing says China's statement is an indication of how strongly it is angered by North Korea's action, although Beijing will still be loath to support tougher sanctions against Pyongyang.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6032525.stm

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:42
Text of N Korea's announcement

The following is the full text of the announcement carried on North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency as reported on the Reuters news agency:


"The field of scientific research in the DPRK (North Korea) successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, Juche 95 (2006) at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.

"It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under a scientific consideration and careful calculation.

"The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100%. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defence capability.

"It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in the area around it."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6032597.stm

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:43
Shock waves from N Korean test

The seismic evidence is still being analysed, but North Korea's announcement is already prompting shock waves around the region.

The priority now will be to manage the initial consequences of the North Korean announcement - to ensure the understandable tensions do not prompt some sort of military incident and, above all, to frame a firm and coherent diplomatic response.

The North Korean move comes against a chorus of voices - both in Asia and beyond - urging it not to go down this path.

Only last week, the UN Security Council warned that a test would "jeopardise peace, stability and security in the region and beyond".

The focus of any diplomatic response will again be the UN Security Council.

There will be pressure to push for a new resolution condemning the North Korean government and probably demanding a stiff menu of economic sanctions against Pyongyang.

North Korea is of course already one of the most isolated countries in the world.

China remains its critical economic life-line, and while Beijing is far from happy with North Korea's behaviour it will not want to precipitate turmoil in the country that could prompt the collapse of the regime.

But the ramifications of this event go well beyond North Korea.

Arms control experts fear that other countries in the region might now consider developing nuclear weapons programmes of their own.

And if Asia succumbs to a new nuclear arms race the whole flimsy fabric of the nuclear non-proliferation regime could collapse with consequences not just in Asia, but in the Middle East and elsewhere.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6032713.stm

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:44
Markets fall after N Korean test

European share indexes have fallen in early trade, echoing Far Eastern declines after North Korea said it had carried out a nuclear weapon test.

Following Pyongyang's announcement, Frankfurt's Dax started down 19 points, while Paris' Cac gave up 18 points and London's FTSE 100 lost 2 points.

The declines were more severe in Asia, where South Korea's main Kospi ended the day down 33 points or 2.4%.

Although Japan's markets were closed on Monday, the yen hit a seven-month low.

'Further reactions'

North Korea's test came in defiance of international protests including strong warnings from both China and Japan.

Analyst Jackson Wong, an investment manager at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong, said stocks were down "as investors were worried that political tensions will trigger a sell down in Asian markets".

"Trade in coming days will likely depend on North Korea's further actions regarding the test and how countries like the US react to North Korea's move," he added.

Mr Wong said a key test will be how Japan's Nikkei reacts when it reopens on Tuesday.

Fellow Hong Kong-based analyst, Wang Qing, an economist at Bank of America, agreed that the continuing reaction of Far Eastern markets would depend upon the response of the international community.

"The economy of North Korea is virtually closed from the rest of the world and its regional impact won't be very significant unless there was a major military confrontation," he said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6032605.stm

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:46
Blair condemns North Korean test

Tony Blair has condemned North Korea's apparent first nuclear weapons test as a "completely irresponsible act".

The prime minister also said the test, reportedly held at 0236 BST, showed the country's "disregard" for the international community's concerns.

Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said she was "horrified" by the news.

North Korea has called the underground test a success. Seismic events at a suspected test site were detected by both the US and South Korea.

'Act of defiance'

Mr Blair said: "I condemn this completely irresponsible act by the government of the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea).

"The international community has repeatedly urged them to refrain from both missile testing and nuclear testing.

"This further act of defiance shows North Korea's disregard for the concerns of its neighbours and the wider international community."

Mrs Beckett told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Like everyone else, we are horrified. We are having to check, of course, if we take this announcement at face value.

"It does look like a very deliberate and flagrant provocation.

"I understand that there is a strong response from the Chinese. We are particularly concerned about the impact in the neighbourhood and in the region."

Mrs Beckett said it was difficult to know how to handle an issue such as this without making matters worse.

Iraq reaction?

"I think the international community will have to take very, very careful stock," she said.

"This is very difficult for the neighbourhood, it's very difficult for the region, and what we don't want is to see something happen that will make things even worse and more dangerous than they already are."

Mrs Beckett rejected suggestions North Korea's actions had anything to do with military action against Iraq or that Britain's moral authority had been weakened by the Iraq war.

"I don't think that is the case," she said. "After all, it's quite a considerable time now since that happened and there are much more current United Nations statements, resolutions and so on."

The Foreign Office said the international community would react "robustly" to the test.

A spokesman added: "This nuclear test is viewed by the UK, and will be viewed by the rest of the international community, as a highly provocative act to which we will respond robustly.

"It will raise tensions in an already tense region and have repercussions internationally."

A White House statement said such a test would be a "provocative act", while China denounced it as "brazen".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6032811.stm

Ironduke
09 Oct 06,, 09:47
Chinese government in firm opposition to DPRK nuclear test

The Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China issued a statement on a nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, with its full text as follows:

The statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (PRC)

October 9, 2006

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) outrageously conducted a nuclear test on October 9th in defiance of unanimous opposition from the international community, and the Chinese government voices its firm opposition to the test.

It is the Chinese government's unswerving and consistent position to enable the (Korean) Peninsula to go nuclear-free and oppose nuclear proliferation. The Chinese side strongly demands the DPRK side abide by its commitment to going nuclear free, halt all the activities that will possibly lead to the further deterioration of the situation and once again return to the track of the Six-Party talks.

The maintenance of peace and stability in the Northeast Asia region conforms to the common interests of all the parties concerned. The Chinese government appeal to all the parties concerned to respond calmly and persevere in settling the issue peacefully through consultations and dialogues. And the Chinese side will continue to make its unremitting efforts to this end.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200610/09/eng20061009_310158.html

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 10:03
Sir,
After the first Pak test turned to be a dud, it is reported that the Chinese sent them a couple of their own nuke to avoid embaressment. Along with these Chinese nukes, a N. Korean nuke was also "tested".

It was a suspicion with no foundation in factual support. As I stated, the Los Alamos Laboratories have confirmed all nuclear materials as to be Pakistani in origin. If the Chinese had sent them a couple of nukes, those would have had been made with Pakistani Uranium and the Chinese have stopped using Uranium decades ago.

The only "descrepency" to creep in was the detection of plutonium in ONE air sample which originally was suspected to be from either China or North Korea. However, it has since been determined that the Pu came from Pakistan.

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 10:22
And if this was a nuke, it was a dud

October 9, 2006
North Korea says it performed first-ever successful nuclear test
By BURT HERMAN


In a file photo North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, left, and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung walk along a red carpet as Kim Dae-jung arrives at the Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang Tuesday June 13, 2000. North Korea said Monday, Oct. 9, 2006, it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test, setting off an underground blast in defiance of international warnings and intense diplomatic activity aimed at heading off such a move. (AP Photo/Yonhap/POOL)

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea said Monday it performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test, claiming it detonated a successful underground blast in a "great leap forward" that defied international warnings against the communist regime.

The reported nuclear test sparked condemnation from regional powers who said it could seriously destabilize the region, with even Pyongyang's ally China saying it resolutely opposed the move. The United States called for immediate UN Security Council action, and along with Japan was expected to press for more sanctions on the impoverished North.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully "with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 per cent," and that no radiation leaked from that test site.

"It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defence capability," KCNA said, adding this was "a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation."

If the test is confirmed, North Korea would be the ninth country known to have nuclear weapons, along with the United States, Russia, France, China, Britain, India, Pakistan and Israel.

A nuclear North Korea would dramatically alter the strategic balance of power in the Pacific region and seriously undermine global anti-proliferation efforts.

Australia and South Korea said there was seismic confirmation that pointed to a nuclear test, and a top Russian military officer confirmed the device tested was a nuclear weapon, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported. However, Japan and the United States said they couldn't immediately confirm a test.

South Korea's seismic monitoring centre said a magnitude 3.6 tremor felt at the time of alleged North Korea nuclear test wasn't a natural occurrence.

The size of the tremor could indicate an explosive equivalent to 550 tonnes of TNT, said Park Chang-soo, spokesman at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources - which would be far smaller than the nuclear bombs the U.S. dropped on Japan during the Second World War.

The atomic bomb that struck Hiroshima, Japan on Aug. 6, 1945, had the destructive power of about 15,000 tonnes of TNT.

The U.S. Geological Survey said it recorded a seismic event with a preliminary magnitude of 4.2 in northeastern North Korea coinciding with the announced test. The Colorado-based agency was unable to tell whether the event was the result of an atomic explosion or a natural earthquake, USGS official Bruce Presgrave said.

The White House said a test defied world opinion against it.

"A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act in defiance of the will of the international community and of our call to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

"We expect the UN Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act," Snow said. "The United States is closely monitoring the situation and reaffirms its commitment to protect and defend our allies in the region."

Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair said the test was a "completely irresponsible act," and its Foreign Ministry warned of international repercussions.

A Security Council resolution adopted in July after a series of North Korean missile launches imposed limited sanctions on North Korea and demanded the country rejoin international nuclear talks. The North immediately rejected the plea.

South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon was expected later Monday to be nominated as the next secretary-general of the United Nations by the Security Council. Ban has said he would use the post, which he would assume at the end of the year, to press for a resolution of the North Korean nuclear standoff.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in Seoul for a summit meeting, said the test had yet to be confirmed but that it would call for a "calm yet stern response."

On Sunday in Beijing, Abe and Chinese President Hu Jintao had pledged to work together to avert a North Korean test.

China, the North's closest ally, said on Monday that Beijing "resolutely opposes" the North Korean nuclear test and hopes Pyongyang will return to disarmament talks.

South Korean presidential spokesman Yoon Tae-young said: "Our government will sternly react under the principle that it cannot tolerate the North's possession of nuclear weapons."

The two Koreas, which fought a 1950-53 war that ended in a ceasefire that has yet to be replaced with peace treaty, are divided by the world's most heavily armed border. However, they have made unprecedented strides toward reconciliation since their leaders met at their first-and-only summit in 2000.

South Korea's Defence Ministry said the alert level of the military had been raised in response to the claimed nuclear test, but that it noticed no unusual activity among North Korea's troops.

The repercussions of North Korea's announcement also were felt in financial markets, sparking plunges in South Korea's stocks and its currency, the won.

lemontree
09 Oct 06,, 10:31
And if this was a nuke, it was a dud

October 9, 2006
North Korea says it performed first-ever successful nuclear test
By BURT HERMAN

It was reported that the Pakistani-North Korean trade off was nuke design for missile technology. If the N. Koreans are using a Pak design and its still a dud 7 years after the 1998 tests - what does this mean? What do the international nuke experts have to say about the N. Korean nukes?

It was a suspicion with no foundation in factual support. As I stated, the Los Alamos Laboratories have confirmed all nuclear materials as to be Pakistani in origin. If the Chinese had sent them a couple of nukes, those would have had been made with Pakistani Uranium and the Chinese have stopped using Uranium decades ago.
Sir,
My knowledge is based on links you or some else had provided months ago. I am just going by what I think I remember on this topic.

Shek
09 Oct 06,, 12:23
They better start working on their stealth technology as seismic activity has been detected eminating from North Korea with initial reports saying it is around 3.5 magnitude.

edit- USGS has just stated that seismic activity of magnitude 4.2 came from North Korea at 10:34am local time (approx 3 hours ago).

I just saw that. Thanks. Now I'll actually believe the announcement.

BenRoethig
09 Oct 06,, 13:12
If this is true, North Korea has just created the Asian cold war. China needs to decide whose side they're on and fast. Expect the last of the WWII blocks to be lifted from Japan.

essay
09 Oct 06,, 13:24
I,m a Chinese who strongly oppose the regime of damned north korea.And i really don,t understand that why USA and its allies don,t make something solidly on korea.When korea was backed by Great leader Chairman Mao,USA fought bravely against korea without one step of retreating back,but when domestic stability became the most concern of China .why Stupid American don.t solve north korea by military mean they used to.I ,m dazzled by it!:confused:

North Korea claims nuclear test.

North Korea says it has carried out its first test of a nuclear weapon, the state news agency (KCNA) has reported.

It said the underground test, carried out in defiance of international warnings, was a success and had not resulted in any leak of radiation.

The White House said South Korean and US intelligence had detected a seismic event at a suspected test site.

The White House said the reported test was a "provocative act", while China denounced it as "brazen"..

In an unusually strong statement against its ally, China expressed its "resolute opposition" to the claimed test and said it "defied the universal opposition of international society".

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is in Seoul for a meeting with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, said the test was "unpardonable".

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Japan had detected seismic waves, but could not confirm whether they were from a nuclear test.

South Korea said it would "sternly respond".

President Roh has called an emergency meeting of South Korea's National Security Council and put the armed forces on a heightened state of alert.

Seoul also suspended a scheduled aid shipment to North Korea, the state news agency reported.

US White House spokesman Tony Snow said: "We expect the UN Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act."

'Historic event'

When it announced the test, KCNA described it as an "historic event that brought happiness to our military and people".

"The nuclear test will contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the Korean peninsula and surrounding region," KCNA said.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency reports that the test took place in Gilju in Hamgyong province at 1036 (0136 GMT).

The BBC's Jonathan Marcus says North Korea's claimed test does not necessarily mean it has a fully-fledged nuclear bomb or warhead that it can deliver to a target.

But the demonstration of North Korea's capability is what will shake-up the geo-politics of the region, he says.

Our correspondent says there will now be pressure on the UN Security Council to push for a resolution condemning North Korea and probably demanding a stiff menu of economic sanctions.

The Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers have held a telephone conference call with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to discuss the issue, South Korea's foreign ministry said.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Beijing says China's statement is an indication of how strongly it is angered by North Korea's action, although Beijing will still be loath to support tougher sanctions against Pyongyang.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6032525.stm

-{SpoonmaN}-
09 Oct 06,, 14:04
I,m a Chinese who strongly oppose the regime of damned north korea.And i really don,t understand that why USA and its allies don,t make something solidly on korea.When korea was backed by Great leader Chairman Mao,USA fought bravely against korea without one step of retreating back,but when domestic stability became the most concern of China .why Stupid American don.t solve north korea by military mean they used to.I ,m dazzled by it!:confused:

Because it would cost billions, upon billions, upon billions of dollars that they can't afford right now, unless they really have to.
Time will tell.

-{SpoonmaN}-
09 Oct 06,, 14:05
Time to test out those shiny new F-22s and shatter the NKAF I say, that'll smack the sense of responsibility back into them hopefully.

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 15:29
This is the fault of both Clinton and Bush.

The two of them have been extremely incompetent in the handling of the DPRK, seemingly relying on no more than wishful thinking as our national strategy wrt the development of a DPRK device.

There are only two courses of action that i reccomend at this point.

1) The instant and total cessation of ALL forms of aid to the DPRK.
2) The immediate and TOTAL withdrawal of ALL US forces from the South.

PS, the following is the extent of the military actions we can now safely take against them:

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 15:32
North Korea tested a nuclear device around an hour ago approxiametely measuring 3.6 on the richter scale. North Korea has announced it as a success.

What happens now????????
Nothing. We can do nothing now.

Thank you Clinton and Bush....fuccking morons.

essay
09 Oct 06,, 15:52
Don,t forget the paramount role played by Chinese whom korean rely heavily on.Korea is more important for Chinese than for American,for its thousands subsidiary status to Chinese Empire.

Srirangan
09 Oct 06,, 16:00
Right on. North Korea, Pakistan, Iran etc. are nothing but Chinese proxies; just as the Hezbollah-Iran relation. You know the source of it all - mother China.

Srirangan
09 Oct 06,, 16:04
Japan's reaction will be very interesting.

essay
09 Oct 06,, 16:29
What,s the japan,s response on it?I personally think that the nuclear test of korean,s will be the excuse of japanese,s ambition on it,s military buildup,esp on it,s nuclear development.It was said that japanese can become a big nuclear power within 2 weeks,because it never lack of concerning technology on nuclear weapon,and of abundant uranium.And we must keep an eye on japan!

Tronic
09 Oct 06,, 16:30
This is the fault of both Clinton and Bush.

The two of them have been extremely incompetent in the handling of the DPRK, seemingly relying on no more than wishful thinking as our national strategy wrt the development of a DPRK device.

There are only two courses of action that i reccomend at this point.

1) The instant and total cessation of ALL forms of aid to the DPRK.
2) The immediate and TOTAL withdrawal of ALL US forces from the South.

PS, the following is the extent of the military actions we can now safely take against them:
It seems like you guys are again just going to wait by until even Iran also tests their nukes...

Tronic
09 Oct 06,, 16:32
I can already picture you saying the same thing after Iran nuke tests...

Ray
09 Oct 06,, 17:51
Imagine that!

s.robat
09 Oct 06,, 18:29
Thought I would contribute with some footage from this
Some great reports here and they really explain the situation better

Fox News confirm North Korea Nuclear Test (http://www.attachmax.com/North_Korea_Nuclear_Test_confirmed__1.html)
Summary Report (http://www.attachmax.com/North_Korea_Nuclear_Test_Summary_Report.html)
How we got here (http://www.attachmax.com/How_we_got_here_North_Korea_Nuclear_Test.html)
Who Is Kim Jong (http://www.attachmax.com/Who_is_Kim_Jong_2.html)

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 19:30
NORK DATA: It was a DUD (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1230/nork-data-it-was-a-dud)
posted by jeffrey under north-korea

HA HA HA HA.

I love the US Geological Survey.

They’ve published lat/long (41.294°N, 129.134°E) and Mb estimates (4.2) for the North Korean test.

There is lots of data floating around: The CTBTO called it 4.0; The South Koreans report 3.58-3.7.

You’re thinking, 3.6, 4.2, in that neighborhood. Seismic scales, like the Richter, are logarithmic, so that neighborhood can be pretty big.

But even at 4.2, the test was probablya dud.

Estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site. The South Koreans called the yield half a kiloton (550 tons), which is more or less—a factor of two—consistent with the relationship for tests in that yield range at the Soviet Shagan test site:

Mb = 4.262 + .973LogW

Where Mb is the magnitude of the body wave, and W is the yield.

3.58-3.7 gives you a couple hundred tons (not kilotons), which is pretty close in this business unless you’re really math positive. The same equation, given the US estimate of 4.2, yields (pun intended) around a kiloton.

A plutonium device should produce a yield in the range of the 20 kilotons, like the one we dropped on Nagasaki. No one has ever dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.

Of course, I want to see what the US IC says. If/when the test vents, we could have some radionuclide data—maybe in the next 72 hours or so.

But, from the initial data, I’d say someone with no workable nuclear weapons (Kim Jong Il, I am looking at you) should be crapping his pants right now.

First the missile, then the bomb. Got anything else you wanna try out there, chief?

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 19:32
Can we merge the three threads?

NORK DATA: It was a DUD (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1230/nork-data-it-was-a-dud)
posted by jeffrey under north-korea

HA HA HA HA.

I love the US Geological Survey.

They’ve published lat/long (41.294°N, 129.134°E) and Mb estimates (4.2) for the North Korean test.

There is lots of data floating around: The CTBTO called it 4.0; The South Koreans report 3.58-3.7.

You’re thinking, 3.6, 4.2, in that neighborhood. Seismic scales, like the Richter, are logarithmic, so that neighborhood can be pretty big.

But even at 4.2, the test was probablya dud.

Estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site. The South Koreans called the yield half a kiloton (550 tons), which is more or less—a factor of two—consistent with the relationship for tests in that yield range at the Soviet Shagan test site:

Mb = 4.262 + .973LogW

Where Mb is the magnitude of the body wave, and W is the yield.

3.58-3.7 gives you a couple hundred tons (not kilotons), which is pretty close in this business unless you’re really math positive. The same equation, given the US estimate of 4.2, yields (pun intended) around a kiloton.

A plutonium device should produce a yield in the range of the 20 kilotons, like the one we dropped on Nagasaki. No one has ever dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.

Of course, I want to see what the US IC says. If/when the test vents, we could have some radionuclide data—maybe in the next 72 hours or so.

But, from the initial data, I’d say someone with no workable nuclear weapons (Kim Jong Il, I am looking at you) should be crapping his pants right now.

First the missile, then the bomb. Got anything else you wanna try out there, chief?

kams
09 Oct 06,, 19:37
OOE that low yield? Are we even sure that it was Nuclear? not 1000 T of TNT explosion?:biggrin:

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 19:48
Next 72 hours will tell


From NORK DATA: It was a DUD (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1230/nork-data-it-was-a-dud)

Of course, I want to see what the US IC says. If/when the test vents, we could have some radionuclide data—maybe in the next 72 hours or so.

glyn
09 Oct 06,, 19:52
Of course we have no idea of the physical size of this device. It could be huge, and probably is, in which case it will take time to 'weaponise' it so that it may be carried under an aircraft or fitted to a rocket.

Canmoore
09 Oct 06,, 20:53
I dont know what would be more humain for the N.K. civilian population. The people of N.K. are already living on the edge, sanctions would cause a massive humanitarian disaster, would a military strike at the N.K. government and military sites, similar to ODS be better? The N.K. military is far more dangerous than the Iraqi military was, but I think that sanctions would just be absolutely devastating to the innocent people of N.K.

tricky situation...

Taihang
09 Oct 06,, 22:01
CCP lost credibility to the world the moment NK gone nuke. US would lose credibility to Asia if not eliminating NK nuclear facility by force. The worst consequence would be a scenario everyone gets nukes in a few years of time, Iran, SK, Japan, Taiwan, Viet Nam, and so forth.

New world order at sight?

stone_cold
09 Oct 06,, 22:12
Right on. North Korea, Pakistan, Iran etc. are nothing but Chinese proxies; just as the Hezbollah-Iran relation. You know the source of it all - mother China.

Exactly! Nuclear NK will keep Japan and SK in check, since only China can restrain NK. Weird pattern but all the nations that seek protection under China's wings, declare themselves nuclear power eventually.:redface:

highsea
09 Oct 06,, 22:14
...The worst consequence would be a scenario everyone gets nukes in a few years of time, Iran, SK, Japan, Taiwan, Viet Nam, and so forth. And that's exactly what's going to happen.

China was the only country that could have influenced NorK away from this path. They blew the chance.

Look for Japan to go nuclear next.

highsea
09 Oct 06,, 22:17
...US would lose credibility to Asia if not eliminating NK nuclear facility by force. It's not our problem. China has the most to lose, and South Korea and Japan.

I agree with M21 though, it's time to pull US forces out of South Korea and treat it purely as a nuclear standoff.

Officer of Engineers
09 Oct 06,, 22:31
I'm thinking this is all a bluff. We still have no official confirmation. The NKs have stated that there is no radioactive leakage (I hate to be the guy who checks out the bomb damage if they don't vent that place). They also stated that there is no need for another test. And the yield is way too low.

highsea
09 Oct 06,, 22:48
Colonel, it's odd that the Russians are the only ones claiming a larger yield based on seismic data. They are saying 5-15 KT.

If the 1/2KT number turns out to be real, then it's either a dud or a hoax, something we'll know soon enough.

If it turns out to be a dud, I'd hate to be the NorK scientist in charge.

If it was a nuke, then the ball is in China's court. If they don't want a nuclear Japan, they better be looking at regime change in NorK.

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 22:58
It seems like you guys are again just going to wait by until even Iran also tests their nukes...
It certainly does.

G Bush is a fukking moron.

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 23:00
I dont know what would be more humain for the N.K. civilian population. The people of N.K. are already living on the edge, sanctions would cause a massive humanitarian disaster, would a military strike at the N.K. government and military sites, similar to ODS be better? The N.K. military is far more dangerous than the Iraqi military was, but I think that sanctions would just be absolutely devastating to the innocent people of N.K.

tricky situation...
I DO NOT GIVE A FUKK ABOUT THE PEOPLE OF THE DPRK.

So far as i'm concerned, let the road to Hell be paved with their starving corpses.

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 23:01
And that's exactly what's going to happen.

China was the only country that could have influenced NorK away from this path. They blew the chance.

Look for Japan to go nuclear next.
Bullspit, WE could've convinced them to abandon their program at the end of a gun barrel.

Also, a .5kt detonation is no hoax. That would still blow a hole in the DMZ more than a Km wide.

Bill
09 Oct 06,, 23:07
Apparently our 'beloved leader' is a MUCH bigger assclown than even i feared.

If i was in charge i'd be massing every single plane and ship we have off the coast of DPRK right now(actually, id have done it YEARS AGO, but i digress).

highsea
09 Oct 06,, 23:16
Bullspit, WE could've convinced them to abandon their program at the end of a gun barrel.I don't think South Korea would have supported that. And China certainly would have come down on Kim's side. IOW, it would have been war.

I don't think you can play a conventional card against a nuke card. IMO, the only way would have been to convince China that Japan was going to go nuclear if NorK did.

First and foremost, it's China's problem. They are the ones that have to deal with a nuclear peninsula, and radiation does not care about borders. They failed to prevent Kim from getting a nuke, so South Korea and Japan are within their rights of self defense to do the same.

Let's get our forces out of the line of fire, and MAD sort it out. The last thing China wants is a nuclear exchange on the Korean Peninsula.

VovaLee
09 Oct 06,, 23:19
Our tracking stations are in 200 km from the explosion.
While we have not fixed changes in a radioactive background.

Goatboy
09 Oct 06,, 23:33
As much as I hate praising Chinese military aggression, I think the best way out of this by far is simply a Chinese invasion -- feels weird to say that lol.

I'm waiting for more information as the Colonel said as to what exactly happened. but regardless, China is obviously pissed off to high heaven and immedietly had a friendly meeting with the new Japanese prime minister, right before a summit between the South Korean and Japanese prime ministers also united in condemning the test. Nobody is happy about this in the region cept North Korea. I don't have a clue as to what's next.

Akshay
10 Oct 06,, 01:33
As much as I hate praising Chinese military aggression, I think the best way out of this by far is simply a Chinese invasion -- feels weird to say that lol.

Count that off!!! China wouldn't want to see Shenzen/Hong Kong going up in smoke. Moreover, what makes you think Chinese military would launch invasion when few months back they had been celebrating 45th anniversary of their friendship with NK?


I'm waiting for more information as the Colonel said as to what exactly happened. but regardless, China is obviously pissed off to high heaven and immedietly had a friendly meeting with the new Japanese prime minister, right before a summit between the South Korean and Japanese prime ministers also united in condemning the test. Nobody is happy about this in the region cept North Korea. I don't have a clue as to what's next.

Chinese attempt of showing aggression is nothing more than an empty noise of a vessel. Infact, a nuclear armed North Korea is more useful for China since it would keep US forces away from Chinese Mainland border.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 01:54
Count that off!!! China wouldn't want to see Shenzen/Hong Kong going up in smoke. Moreover, what makes you think Chinese military would launch invasion when few months back they had been celebrating 45th anniversary of their friendship with NK?

There is no condition for a Chinese invasion. Above all else, the Chinese don't want North Koreans in Northern China. They want North Koreans to stay in North Korea. They preferred the North Koreans to do it themselves. But they have no qualms about doing the dirty work.


Chinese attempt of showing aggression is nothing more than an empty noise of a vessel. Infact, a nuclear armed North Korea is more useful for China since it would keep US forces away from Chinese Mainland border.

Hardly! You don't know the headaches Kim is giving China. China fears Kim would open the refugee floodgates and a nuclear armed Kim means that he no longer fears the Chinese shutting his refugee flood gate.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 01:57
Also, a .5kt detonation is no hoax. That would still blow a hole in the DMZ more than a Km wide.

At this point, we don't know if that is straight HE or a failed nuke. If it's a failed nuke, it still should be something to worry about, since they've announced their intentions in no uncertain terms ... and they just may learn enough to solve their own problems.

If it's straight HE, ... frankly, I don't know what to think if it was straight HE.

Triple C
10 Oct 06,, 01:57
How effective are those new 4,000 lbs bunker busting bombers against reinforced underground structures? The concern seems to be that to achieve the level of saturation needed sortie numbers have to go up and exposing more planes to surface weaponry.

Tronic
10 Oct 06,, 01:59
Chinese attempt of showing aggression is nothing more than an empty noise of a vessel. Infact, a nuclear armed North Korea is more useful for China since it would keep US forces away from Chinese Mainland border.

exactly.... NK is just a Chinese proxy state; one which they can topple any time they wish....

Tronic
10 Oct 06,, 02:03
Triple, NorK can be easily overrun, probably with more casualties but they CAN still be overrun... but first Bush has to get his head out of the fake WoT and start responding to real threats...

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 02:08
It's not Kim that the Chinese are worried about. It's the entire North Korean population living off Beijing's dollar that they're worried about.

Triple C
10 Oct 06,, 02:28
exactly.... NK is just a Chinese proxy state; one which they can topple any time they wish.... Beijin doesn't run the show in Pynyong, or the North Koreans wouldn't have tested their bomb. Now, they're going to have to deal with the potential of a nuclear Japan.

Akshay
10 Oct 06,, 02:29
Hardly! You don't know the headaches Kim is giving China. China fears Kim would open the refugee floodgates and a nuclear armed Kim means that he no longer fears the Chinese shutting his refugee flood gate.
Sir, Over here China has to make a choice whether they can live with Korean refugees or have US military rubbing sholders with PLA at border. I still believe China would settle for Mad man Kim Jong Il who has created a buffer between US & mainland China. This is the reason why China has been feeding Kim all this time & will keep doing so in future.

Akshay
10 Oct 06,, 02:36
At this point, we don't know if that is straight HE or a failed nuke. If it's a failed nuke, it still should be something to worry about, since they've announced their intentions in no uncertain terms ... and they just may learn enough to solve their own problems.

If it's straight HE, ... frankly, I don't know what to think if it was straight HE.

Sir, Russian have reported the test to be in the range of 10-15 KT. This would also depend on which way the seismic waves travelled considering that the test was carried out in a bunker under the mountains. It could be possible that the intensity of seismic waves was considerably reduced in a certain direction due to the resistance by hard rocks. But anyway, NK is now a nuclear powered state & saying that the test could be a failure would be a futile attempt of burying the head in the sand in the fear of apocalypse.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 02:38
No, the Chinese have two other choices.

A Chinese supported coup
A Chinese invasion to keep North Koreans in North Korea

The 2nd option has been spelled out in no uncertain terms to Kim. In any war with the South, North Koreans ain't moving south to their brothers. It's north away from the fighting.

To this end, the 38th and 39th Group Armies are tasked with the North Korean situation. They are the best armed and best trained of all PLA armies.

essay
10 Oct 06,, 02:39
In fact,most Chinese oppose Nk,s test,and you can see the voice of anger in Chinese webset(www.sohu.com).And Chinese ppls don,t wanna dedicate their life to a crazy north korea in where Chinese army once bravely kick American army off.
North Korean hate Chinese very much!They boast that they defeat America alone,and destroy the tombs of Chinese volunteer soldiers in order to distort the history,and cover the truth that Chinese save their country,and Chinese army defeat America alone.
I,m a young Chinese,and if American army attack Nk,i would rather to fight side by side with American and it,s allies.
I think there must be some soldiers,and do you tolerate Nk,s dirty behavior to defame Warrior who dead in the battlefield.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 02:39
Sir, Russian have reported the test to be in the range of 10-15 KT.

You noticed that they're the only ones stating that. Not even the Chinese are saying anything of the sort and the North Koreans told them 20 minutes before hand (who in turned told Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington).

As of right now, both South Korea and France states it's a half KT blast.

Akshay
10 Oct 06,, 03:22
No, the Chinese have two other choices.

A Chinese supported coup
I doubt it if China would do so.. any coup would be successful only if there is a suitable substitute available which I doubt anyone to be. Morover, the stakes are too high.

1)If coup fails Kim would take it as a hostile act & turn against China. This could put China in a quandary whether to get into loggerhead with NK & create another trouble alongside Taiwan or to side with US & launch an attack on NK which incase is still a losing game for China from both the ends. It is known that NK missiles can atleast hit the cities on Western China. Evenif, NK is rolled over by Allied forces it would bring US forces on Chinese border.

2) Now even if Chinese supported coup is successful, there is no guarantee that North Koreans would accept the puppet leader. This could throw NK into anarchy & the Chinese fears of NK refugees pouring into China could come true.


The 2nd option has been spelled out in no uncertain terms to Kim. In any war with the South, North Koreans ain't moving south to their brothers. It's north away from the fighting.

To this end, the 38th and 39th Group Armies are tasked with the North Korean situation. They are the best armed and best trained of all PLA armies.

Sir, I've had conversation with many a South Koreans all of whom have said one thing to me. It is that 'North Koreans are their brothers'. They wish to help them get food, jobs & stability. Also, what I've witnessed is an equal degree of anger against US both by North Koreans & South Koreans. It was also told to me that if it wasn't for US, korean peninsula would've already been one. Now, I am not sure how much of this is adopted by the government in Seoul but, one thing that is clear is that if there is a war, it would be between US & NK. And I am not sure in the wave of countinuous hostilities in Afghanistan/Iraq, how many wars can US afford to fight at one time. Moreover, in case of NK... US would be directly exposing its troops against a possiblr nuclear attack(I say this since KJ Il is definately insane..).

Interesting times we are living in!!!! If we are lucky we would eyewitness the firsthand events unfolding the apocalypse.

Shek
10 Oct 06,, 03:23
Some commentary from Cordesman from CSIS.

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/061009_cordesman_commentary.pdf

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 03:42
I doubt it if China would do so.. any coup would be successful only if there is a suitable substitute available which I doubt anyone to be. Morover, the stakes are too high.

We really do not have enough intel on the situation inside North Korea to state anything. The Chinese would have better contacts as who's in and who's out and they're not sharing that info. The only thing I can tell you that's a Chinese option.


1)If coup fails Kim would take it as a hostile act & turn against China. This could put China in a quandary whether to get into loggerhead with NK & create another trouble alongside Taiwan or to side with US & launch an attack on NK which incase is still a losing game for China from both the ends.

You've said so yourself. The Chinese can create the conditions to collapse Kim extremely easily. Cut off the water and electricity. The probelm here again is that this action creates the very thing the Chinese wants to avoid. North Korean refugees in China.


It is known that NK missiles can atleast hit the cities on Western China.

So what? If it's a North Korean nuke, right now, no one is scared.


Evenif, NK is rolled over by Allied forces it would bring US forces on Chinese border.

Not if the PLA invades 1st.


2) Now even if Chinese supported coup is successful, there is no guarantee that North Koreans would accept the puppet leader.

You're talking about a population conditioned to a personality cult, actually two personality cults. The 1st thing people are going to do when Kim is gone is to wake up and asked themselves, "what happenned?" Then, they will get pissed off about Chinese rule.


This could throw NK into anarchy & the Chinese fears of NK refugees pouring into China could come true.

A Chinese occupation army does wonders, doesn't it.


Sir, I've had conversation with many a South Koreans all of whom have said one thing to me. It is that 'North Koreans are their brothers'. They wish to help them get food, jobs & stability. Also, what I've witnessed is an equal degree of anger against US both by North Koreans & South Koreans.

Which generation are you talking to?


It was also told to me that if it wasn't for US, korean peninsula would've already been one.

Sure, under North Korean Rule.


Now, I am not sure how much of this is adopted by the government in Seoul but, one thing that is clear is that if there is a war, it would be between US & NK.

Not possible. The South Koreans are the ones manning the DMZ. The US 2ID are the reserved manouver force.


And I am not sure in the wave of countinuous hostilities in Afghanistan/Iraq, how many wars can US afford to fight at one time. Moreover, in case of NK... US would be directly exposing its troops against a possiblr nuclear attack(I say this since KJ Il is definately insane..).

Not today.


Interesting times we are living in!!!! If we are lucky we would eyewitness the firsthand events unfolding the apocalypse.

I don't think so.

Parihaka
10 Oct 06,, 03:55
Any possibility of a Chinese invasion with SK taking responsibility for NK control? (presumably with a negotiated US withdrawl)

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 04:11
I am unaware of any such plans.

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 04:27
It's not Kim that the Chinese are worried about. It's the entire North Korean population living off Beijing's dollar that they're worried about.China doesn't provide aid for refugees or even internal migrants from one city to another. If they find work, they eat. If not? They don't. China has 1.3 billion people, 30% of whom don't speak Mandarin - the national language. North Korean refugees will blend in just fine with north eastern China's several million-strong Korean ethnic minority.

China can absorb the entire North Korean population (20 million) without breaking a sweat. Just one example - cities in the booming coastal areas of southern China have absorbed a hundred million migrants from other regions, many of whom do not even speak Mandarin, China's lingua franca - which means that they would be just like an Appalachian hillbilly stranded in Poland - or a North Korean stranded in China. Despite the huge numbers of out-of-area migrants, the wages in these cities are starting to creep up to the point that plant managers are looking at other countries. North Koreans - with ethnic Korean supervisors from China's northeastern provinces - could fill that gap quite easily. The Koreans would probably kill to get the wages and work conditions at which out-of-area Chinese migrants are turning up their noses.

China has tons of room - for it to get to Hong Kong's population density would mean a total population of 60 billion. It has half Britain's population density and could physically absorb several North Koreas.

So why is China repatriating North Korean refugees? If the entire North Korean population moves to China, Kim has no country. China is deporting those people to keep North Korea afloat. East Germany's Communist government collapsed because people were leaving in droves for West Germany via Hungary. If North Korea decamps for China, South Korea can unify the country without firing a shot. That's not what China wants.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 04:37
You've never seen a refugee camp.

Commando
10 Oct 06,, 04:43
Parihaka's idea seems very sensible. China invades. Once the North Korean government is topelled. Korea becomes unified with current South Korean government as the main government.

Although i can't see this happening. And am in favour of US air strikes on nuclear facilities and government compounds. A ground invasion could risk direct tensions with China and China would never want the USA near there border.

To me we have to resolve this quickly. If not its gonna lead to an arms race. And an unstable world!!!!!!

Commando
10 Oct 06,, 04:46
Its up to China to wake up and smell the coffee. If it doesn't act and goes by only imposing sanctions. Then i think the USA has every right to all their military options.

Once again America have to act as world police and ensure our freedom. Once again we will get those morons winging, about no-war.

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 04:51
You've never seen a refugee camp.That's because China hasn't set any up and doesn't consider North Korean migrants refugees. The Chinese view is that they are economic migrants.

Bill
10 Oct 06,, 04:53
I don't think South Korea would have supported that. And China certainly would have come down on Kim's side. IOW, it would have been war.
Whatever it took, this day should've never been allowed to come to pass.

And the same for Iran, but TENFOLD.

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 05:38
That's because China hasn't set any up and doesn't consider North Korean migrants refugees. The Chinese view is that they are economic migrants.
They're currently treated as much as the Americans treat illegal Mexicans. However, that is a big difference of 20 million people showing up with nothing demanding food, water, and shelter. Can you house 100 people out of the blue? What makes you think China can do the same to 20 million people?

Ironduke
10 Oct 06,, 06:12
Any possibility of a Chinese invasion with SK taking responsibility for NK control? (presumably with a negotiated US withdrawl)
I highly doubt South Korea would want to be responsible for NK.



The costs of Korean reunification have been estimated by some sources [including the World Bank] to be as high as $2–3 trillion, about five or six times South Korea’s gross domestic product.

South Korea has a population of 48.6 million with an annual income of $19,200 per capita. North Korea has about 23 million people with a per capita income of $1,400. Were the two countries to reunify, the resulting country would have a combined population of over 70 million, but with an average per capita income of about $13,500. That is, in some sense the cost of reunification to South Koreans could be a one-third reduction in annual income.

The population of East Germany was only a quarter that of West Germany, while the per capita GDP of East Germany was believed by the West in 1991 to be somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters that of West Germany. By some estimates the East German per capita income turned out to be only a quarter that of West Germany. Thus, the overall burden of Korean reunification might be as much as ten times greater than that of German reunification.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5029.htm

Tronic
10 Oct 06,, 06:28
Catch Islamabad to punish Pyongyang

NORTH KOREA did not carry out its nuclear test to acquire weapons and deter an external nuclear threat. It faces no such threat. The intention behind the test was to acquire nuclear weapons as an insurance against the United States's attempts to carry out a regime change in North Korea using economic pressure.

North Korea had agreed earlier -- once during former US president Bill Clinton's tenure in 1994 and once during the six-party talks -- to give up its nuclear weapons programme if the US engaged in direct talks with it, lifted all sanctions and gave a security guarantee.

Thus North Korea's effort is modelled on Pakistan where the present ruler maintains that any pressure on him to democratise will lead to instability, and when that happens there is no guarantee that nuclear weapons and nuclear materials will not fall into the hands of terrorist non-state actors. That ensures the US stake in the continuing stability of the regime.

From now on, the US will have to engage North Korea and ensure its stability. In order to do so it may be necessary to provide economic assistance to North Korea and create conditions for stability.

North Korea has a notorious reputation for transferring arms to terrorist groups. Its leader argues that it is one of few items of export they have. Subtle blackmail will be used, as Pakistan has done. If the US does not want such things to happen, it should engage North Korea directly, ensure its regime stability and assist it economically.

The US may have thought that since it was successful in forcing Libya to give up its nuclear-weapons programme, it would succeed with North Korea too.

That approach overlooked the fact that North Korea-Pakistan nuclear proliferation had advanced very far while the Pakistan-Libya proliferation had been at an incipient stage.

The US was developing a missile-defence programme essentially against North Korean nuclear missiles. The hawks who had been arguing in favour of the programme will now feel justified.

But the missile defence of the US, even if it proves successful, will not solve the problem of North Korean proliferation to terrorist non-state actors. That needs US engagement of North Korea.

A nuclear North Korea will affect the security environment of the whole of East Asia. South Korea will have to decide between strengthening its security relationship with the US and acquiring its own nuclear determent. It will also call for a basic change in Japan's non-nuclear policy based on a constitution imposed by General MacArthur.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is known to favour revising the constitution. The next few months will decide what course of action Japan adopts. South Korea and Japan acquiring nuclear weapons will only help them deter a nuclear attack on them by North Korea. In fact such an attack is a very unlikely prospect.

North Korea will attempt to blackmail the US, Japan and South Korea for substantial economic aid on its conditions, lest it be compelled to transfer nuclear materials and technology to non-state actors. This threat cannot be dealt with either by US missile defence or by Japanese and South Korean acquisition of nuclear weapons.

In other words, the North Korean aim will be to make the US, Japan and South Korea pay for the continuance of Kim Jong-Il's dictatorial regime without any external intervention, on his terms and conditions.

A somewhat similar strategy has been successfully practised in the past five years by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan.

Sixty years of nuclear theology developed by western strategists has given no insights into dealing with a blackmailing nuclear state in a world where terrorist non-state actors pose threats to civil societies of major democratic nations. But North Korea is not the originator of this strategy, Pakistan is. The battle over North Korean proliferation was lost by the US in its dealings with Musharraf.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5922_1816902,0015002500000000.htm

hmm... so what is being done to the orginial proliferators which proliferated the Nuclear tech to the North Koreans in the first place??? lets see... F-16s, Harpoons, Orions...

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 07:08
They're currently treated as much as the Americans treat illegal Mexicans. However, that is a big difference of 20 million people showing up with nothing demanding food, water, and shelter. Can you house 100 people out of the blue? What makes you think China can do the same to 20 million people?The same way that China's coastal cities took in 100m out of area migrants. One prototypical southern Chinese city has a native population that is 1/7 of its current population - the non-native 6/7 showed up within the last decade - and it isn't even an outlier. North Koreans can't possibly demand any more than China's internal migrants demand anything - these Koreans come from a background where they had nothing to eat, had to work long hours and were punished for falling behind (in some cases executed).

The typical assimilation process for Korean refugees - as for Chinese internal migrants - would go like this - they go to a place and sleep out in the open for a short time. After a while, they get hungry and start looking for work. The natives offer them piece work for next to nothing. They start working, eating and start looking at getting some lodging, of which there is an abundance, given China's overheated real estate market. In many cases, they won't even have to worry about that - Chinese employers will provide them with a bed in a communal dorm (arranged like an army barracks, with rows upon rows of bunk beds) and subsidized food, just as they provide these items for out-of-area migrants looking to make it in China's boomtowns.

In fact, given Chinese work arrangements, finding lodging for the family wouldn't even be a problem. The typical arrangement is for the breadwinner to live in a dorm, and for the rest of the family to live dozens or even hundreds of miles away, where the housing is cheap. In the rural areas forty or fifty miles from China's boomtowns, the rent on a one-bedroom apartment might be as low as 100 yuan a month. In rural areas that are not near boomtowns, it's likely even less. How does the family get together? It does so perhaps once or twice a month depending on how far away the breadwinner lives.

Now, I haven't even mentioned the elephant in the room. As I noted above, China could absorb the entire North Korean population without breaking a sweat. But the fact is that China could admit all 20m North Koreans and not have to assimilate them. For the reality is that every North Korean is automatically a South Korean citizen. China could simply repatriate them - to South Korea. But China will neither assimilate North Korean refugees nor accept them in preparation for their journey to South Korea. Because to do so would mean the end of the North Korean Communist state, just as the transit of East German refugees to West Germany via Hungary meant the end of the East German Communist state.

Ironduke
10 Oct 06,, 07:11
all of whom migrated within the last decade - and it isn't even an outlier.
You a stat major?

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 07:23
You a stat major?Took a few stat courses back in the day.

Triple C
10 Oct 06,, 08:40
I won't dismiss the flow of refugees into China lightly. Chinese internal migration had been cited as a major distablizing factor in 2004's History Review Quarterly in all articles that discuss the political.

Imagine an influx another group of those that doesn't even speak Chinese.

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 08:56
I won't dismiss the flow of refugees into China lightly. Chinese internal migration had been cited as a major distablizing factor in 2004's History Review Quarterly in all articles that discuss the political.

Imagine an influx another group of those that doesn't even speak Chinese.30% of China's population doesn't speak Chinese (defined here as Mandarin). In fact prior to the 20th century, just a few percent of the Chinese population even spoke a common language. Only with the introduction of universal primary schooling did the (imperfect) knowledge of Mandarin become somewhat common. And yet the Chinese empire has endured for two millenia, with occasional interruptions - to be sure - but endured nonetheless.

As to issues of stability, I think North Korea's refugees wouldn't really change much, because China can always deport the troublemakers. Either to North or South Korea. Plus - it's one thing to make trouble in your homeland and quite another to do so in a foreign land. Countries in the Orient don't stand for that kind of nonsense. Political correctness vis-a-vis foreigners really doesn't exist in the Far East.

Draconion
10 Oct 06,, 09:04
dont you think we are diverting from the topic...?

Triple C
10 Oct 06,, 09:06
30% of China's population doesn't speak Chinese (defined here as Mandarin). In fact prior to the 20th century, just a few percent of the Chinese population even spoke a common language.

I know that. But the Chinese sure as hack don't speak Korean, nor do they consider themselves Koreans. Foreign competetors willing to strike a cheaper bargain is going to cause national conflicts between the Chinese migrants and refugees.


As to issues of stability, I think North Korea's refugees wouldn't really change much, because China can always deport the troublemakers. Either to North or South Korea. Plus - it's one thing to make trouble in your homeland and quite another to do so in a foreign land.

Much ink had been spilled on the subject. The migrants have already caused enough consternation to the Chinese government, yet they have not been able to resolve the problem, if it has a resolution. Every regime has a limit as to what it can and cannot do. China is no exception. She has to run the risk of tolerating instability in exchange for stability, and that is a handicap on their ability to act.

Draconion
10 Oct 06,, 09:08
Ok...one question...hell...make that three...does US have the resources to conduct any kind of a land based invasion...?i mean they are kinda busy in Iraq and Afghanistan...can they handle this front too...?...and on what side is china...?

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 09:21
I know that. But the Chinese sure as hack don't speak Korean, nor do they consider themselves Koreans. Foreign competetors willing to strike a cheaper bargain is going to cause national conflicts between the Chinese migrants and refugees.

Much ink had been spilled on the subject. The migrants have already caused enough consternation to the Chinese government, yet they have not been able to resolve the problem, if it has a resolution. Every regime has a limit as to what it can and cannot do. China is no exception. She has to run the risk of tolerating instability in exchange for stability, and that is a handicap on their ability to act.Here's the thing - there are conflicts between the natives of Chinese cities and the out-of-area migrants who show up. But the migrants keep their heads down for one simple reason - the local cops don't hesitate to beat the crap out of non-native troublemakers. And the non-natives are from all over the country, so there's no real rallying point. From various incidents publicized in the West, I think you'll have gathered that the Chinese security forces aren't shy about using lethal force to break up unruly crowds. Now, Western orthodoxy suggests that applying lethal force simply leads to more resistance. Not in China. Most cops in China don't carry guns. But when they do, they have a license to kill. It's that simple.

Draconion
10 Oct 06,, 09:32
i agree with the chinese dude...in our countries, play soft with the crowd, and they'll take you for a ride, kick them in the **** once and then they treat you like a king...

Parihaka
10 Oct 06,, 09:56
I highly doubt South Korea would want to be responsible for NK.



http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5029.htm

All true but it's still their goal. They were just hoping to do it gradually via the economy.

Taihang
10 Oct 06,, 10:47
It seems most governments are talking about sanctions on NK. I am curious to know how many on this board believe it would work. IMHO full scale sanctions never do more than creation of human sufferings on ordinary people. A UN resolution on use of military forces might be viable.

Taihang
10 Oct 06,, 11:17
NK nuclear missiles?

N Korea demands direct talks with U.S. to avert nuclear conflict

Tuesday, October 10, 2006 at 16:09 EDT
http://www.japantoday.com/jp/news/386889

SEOUL — A North Korean official said Tuesday that the United States should agree to hold direct talks with his government on security guarantees to avert a situation in which Pyongyang would feel compelled to launch nuclear-tipped missiles, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported.

"We want this situation to be concluded before the unhappy situation arises in which we fire nuclear missiles, and this depends on how the United States acts," the official was quoted as saying in Beijing on condition of anonymity. What Pyongyang want is its safety, including "a guarantee of our regime," the official said, speaking a day after Pyongyang said it conducted an underground nuclear test.

essay
10 Oct 06,, 12:23
You haven,t hit the point yet.Zhang fei is absolute right,because refugee from Nk doesn,t make any problem to Chinese government.I visited border area last year,Chinese korean, in fact,outnumber the korean live in NK,even though i don,t know exact number of Chinese korean.But i ,m sure my calculation.And Chinese never see both northern korean and southern korean as outsider,as a result of thousands year,s protector of korea peninsula.

I know that. But the Chinese sure as hack don't speak Korean, nor do they consider themselves Koreans. Foreign competetors willing to strike a cheaper bargain is going to cause national conflicts between the Chinese migrants and refugees.



Much ink had been spilled on the subject. The migrants have already caused enough consternation to the Chinese government, yet they have not been able to resolve the problem, if it has a resolution. Every regime has a limit as to what it can and cannot do. China is no exception. She has to run the risk of tolerating instability in exchange for stability, and that is a handicap on their ability to act.

lurker1031
10 Oct 06,, 12:25
I don't take North Korea seriously. Kim Jong II's actions seem calculated as threats to gain leverage with the world, and perhaps favors, as well.

essay
10 Oct 06,, 12:45
20 million really count nothing to China,we can treat them as immigrant workers,just like Chinese Peasants who find jobs in big city such as Beijing,Shanghai and ,Shenzhen,etc.I was brought up in iner Mongolia,and had many korean classmates in school,who,s parents are Chinese volunteer soldiers in korean war,and native korean women who lost his fomer husbands in war.After Korea war,NK lost at least 3 millions-most of death are male, which is really a big cost for a small country with tiny population.So many korean widows and girls married with Chinese soldiers,and as a consequence,a huge number of korean come to China.
And i must make it clear that there is no border at all between two countries,even though there is a border between them.Korea peninsula had been the colony of Chinese Empire for thousands years.And Chinese ppls never see them as outsider.

They're currently treated as much as the Americans treat illegal Mexicans. However, that is a big difference of 20 million people showing up with nothing demanding food, water, and shelter. Can you house 100 people out of the blue? What makes you think China can do the same to 20 million people?

Officer of Engineers
10 Oct 06,, 13:17
The same way that China's coastal cities took in 100m out of area migrants. One prototypical southern Chinese city has a native population that is 1/7 of its current population - the non-native 6/7 showed up within the last decade - and it isn't even an outlier. North Koreans can't possibly demand any more than China's internal migrants demand anything - these Koreans come from a background where they had nothing to eat, had to work long hours and were punished for falling behind (in some cases executed).

Hmmm, very well thought out. Good points.

HORSE PUCKEY!

There is no way for you to even dig latrines for 20 million people before choleria set in. The logistics alone of finding enough shelter before people start dying from exposure. We're not talking about a steady flow of people moving out. We're talking a refugee flood.

Just finding enough water alone is going to be probamatic, let alone food.

As I've stated, you've never seen a refugee camp. You don't know the requirements. I asked you could you handle 100 people who showed up out of the blue. I did not ask about your block, your city. I asked you. Yeah, given time, you would have handle 100 people but you didn't get the point. Never mind the tomorrow. What do you do with 100 people NOW?

Get off it, you know squat here.

BenRoethig
10 Oct 06,, 13:29
Any possibility of a Chinese invasion with SK taking responsibility for NK control? (presumably with a negotiated US withdrawl)

Not a chance in hell. They want a communist state on their border.

essay
10 Oct 06,, 13:41
I,m a Chinese communist,but i have no idea about communism and capitalism.Could you tell me the true meaning of both of them?

Not a chance in hell. They want a communist state on their border.

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 13:50
As I've stated, you've never seen a refugee camp. You don't know the requirements. I asked you could you handle 100 people who showed up out of the blue. I did not ask about your block, your city. I asked you. Yeah, given time, you would have handle 100 people but you didn't get the point. Never mind the tomorrow. What do you do with 100 people NOW?

Get off it, you know squat here.I understand the military mindset - troops are essentially dependents who need feeding and housing - and they do expect to be housed and fed. In the civilian world, migrants understand that to work is to eat and to get shelter. This is how North Koreans have made it all the way to Thailand. This is how hundreds of millions of Chinese have made their way from one end of the country to the other. And if things get out of hand, China can always arrange a Marielito-style boat lift with South Korea. The Chinese don't do refugee relief. If these guys want a bite and a roof over their heads, they'll have to work for it. If they can't make it - China has well-equipped crematoriums to deal with the bodies of the deceased.

The idea of cholera being a problem is simply strange. China is a poor country. But most of the country has running water. And is electrified. Hygiene-wise, China's food preparation standards aren't up to par - as I've personally experienced. But cholera is not one of the problems you run into while in China.

kams
10 Oct 06,, 15:48
I understand the military mindset - troops are essentially dependents who need feeding and housing - and they do expect to be housed and fed. In the civilian world, migrants understand that to work is to eat and to get shelter. This is how North Koreans have made it all the way to Thailand. This is how hundreds of millions of Chinese have made their way from one end of the country to the other. And if things get out of hand, China can always arrange a Marielito-style boat lift with South Korea. The Chinese don't do refugee relief. If these guys want a bite and a roof over their heads, they'll have to work for it. If they can't make it - China has well-equipped crematoriums to deal with the bodies of the deceased.

The idea of cholera being a problem is simply strange. China is a poor country. But most of the country has running water. And is electrified. Hygiene-wise, China's food preparation standards aren't up to par - as I've personally experienced. But cholera is not one of the problems you run into while in China.

Zhang Fei, my two cents

You are comparing urban migration and immigration to a refuge situation (uncontrolled war time refugees, fleeing hunger and war). Urban migration happens gradually over a period of time. In your own example 6/7 of 100 million migrated to urabn area over a period of a decade. Immigration is strictly controlled.

Now imagine 10 million flooding your contryside in a week or less. What about their sanitation? food, water. There is no way any country can prepare or cope with that kind of situation. Poor sanitation means Cholera, Dysentry etc. whether its China, India, Europe or USA.

Tronic
10 Oct 06,, 15:49
Ok...one question...hell...make that three...does US have the resources to conduct any kind of a land based invasion...?i mean they are kinda busy in Iraq and Afghanistan...can they handle this front too...?...and on what side is china...?
pull out of Iraq and attack the bigger threat; NK... Iraq is just turning into a slaughter house anyways...

highsea
10 Oct 06,, 17:11
Whatever it took, this day should've never been allowed to come to pass.

And the same for Iran, but TENFOLD.I disagree. I am actually kind of glad it happened. It clarifies the situation wrt the NorK nuke program, and puts China smack dab on the spot, since NorK is their client state, and it's their failed diplomacy that led to the test.

The ambiguity has been removed once and for all. If it turns out to be a failed nuke test (or even a successful one, as the Russians are claiming), it puts the rest of the world on notice. The test doesn't really change anything- either he had them or he didn't. Better to know for sure.

It's also very possible that the wave of anti-Americanism in South Korea will moderate.

It also gives us pretext to remove our forces from harms way and rely more on our own nuclear deterrent. Even if it was a nuke, Kim can't hit us directly, the threat is to his neighbors (providing we withdraw US forces, which we should). This would send a clear signal to China and to Kim that we are willing to bomb him into oblivion at the first sign of agression.

This is not a US problem- it will require a united effort to resolve. The UNSC has been offering lip service for too long. It's time to put up or shut up.

SLASH
10 Oct 06,, 17:35
pull out of Iraq and attack the bigger threat; NK... Iraq is just turning into a slaughter house anyways...

:eek: .Are u kidding me.......What about the soldiers who sacrificed their life for the operation :frown: ???You can't let it all go in vain.

Zhang Fei
10 Oct 06,, 17:35
Zhang Fei, my two cents

You are comparing urban migration and immigration to a refuge situation (uncontrolled war time refugees, fleeing hunger and war). Urban migration happens gradually over a period of time. In your own example 6/7 of 100 million migrated to urabn area over a period of a decade. Immigration is strictly controlled.

Now imagine 10 million flooding your contryside in a week or less. What about their sanitation? food, water. There is no way any country can prepare or cope with that kind of situation. Poor sanitation means Cholera, Dysentry etc. whether its China, India, Europe or USA.China is larger than the US. It has a major excess of housing. I know - I've looked at a number of residential properties in-country - by tagging along behind realtors down dark and dank alleyways - and checking out 8 story walk-ups. In making assumptions about cholera and dysentery, you are suggesting that people will not be able to find adequate housing and plumbing facilities. I beg to differ. A 20m influx does not mean that existing facilities have been destroyed, as happens during earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters. Existing facilities continue operating unhindered, although under a little strain.

We are living in the 21st century. Refugees can be transported by truck or by train. They can also be moved to South Korea - something that every respondent seems to be avoiding like the plague. If China asks, third countries, including the US, will also take at least hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees or provide billions in aid money - just look at what happened after the tsunami. Note also that the US was providing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of fuel oil annually to the North Korean regime until their nuclear activities put a stop to this. I have little doubt the current US administration would pony up the cash to house the refugees as the price of toppling Kim Jong Il.

My conclusion is that the Chinese are pointing to the possibility of refugees merely as an excuse to avoid taking any action that might topple its North Korean proxy. Even if it decided not to assimilate them, the fact that North Korean refugees are automatically South Korean citizens and can go to South Korea just knocks the Chinese refugee argument flat on its back.

Canmoore
10 Oct 06,, 17:38
There is no way for you to even dig latrines for 20 million people before choleria set in. The logistics alone of finding enough shelter before people start dying from exposure. We're not talking about a steady flow of people moving out. We're talking a refugee flood.

Im going to agree with the Colonel here.

NK and NW China are not exactly known for there hospitable climate, winter is fast approaching, whose to say that this refugee flood were to take place during winter? humans unprotected to the winter elements will not last very long. Can you find shelter for 20million before hypothermia, frost bite, disease and starvation takes its toll?

Canmoore
10 Oct 06,, 17:43
China is larger than the US

What atlas are you looking at???

I suggest you go back to highschool and brush up on your Geography my friend

America 9,629,091 square kilometers

China 9,596,960 square kilometers

If you are talking about population, then you should state so, otherwise it looks like you have no clue what you are talking about.

starsiege
10 Oct 06,, 17:50
I,m a Chinese communist,but i have no idea about communism and capitalism.Could you tell me the true meaning of both of them?

so u are a communist without knowing anything about communism or any other forms or government! WOW. typical commie. im sure all u need to know is in ur little red book:)

kams
10 Oct 06,, 17:58
China is larger than the US. It has a major excess of housing. I know - I've looked at a number of residential properties in-country - by tagging along behind realtors down dark and dank alleyways - and checking out 8 story walk-ups. In making assumptions about cholera and dysentery, you are suggesting that people will not be able to find adequate housing and plumbing facilities. I beg to differ. A 20m influx does not mean that existing facilities have been destroyed, as happens during earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters. Existing facilities continue operating unhindered, although under a little strain.

We are living in the 21st century. Refugees can be transported by truck or by train. They can also be moved to South Korea - something that every respondent seems to be avoiding like the plague. If China asks, third countries, including the US, will also take at least hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees or provide billions in aid money - just look at what happened after the tsunami. Note also that the US was providing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of fuel oil annually to the North Korean regime until their nuclear activities put a stop to this. I have little doubt the current US administration would pony up the cash to house the refugees as the price of toppling Kim Jong Il.

My conclusion is that the Chinese are pointing to the possibility of refugees merely as an excuse to avoid taking any action that might topple its North Korean proxy. Even if it decided not to assimilate them, the fact that North Korean refugees are automatically South Korean citizens and can go to South Korea just knocks the Chinese refugee argument flat on its back.


Sorry it doesn't work that way. You are talking about war time situation, refuge influx in huge numbers across a very small area over a short period of time. I am not talking about long term situation, talk about short term conditions in refugee camps.

You think these refugees will be allowed in housing complexes inside China's towns? Come on:biggrin: .

Even without War, Natural Disaster, water borne pandemics are not easy to control. You need to isolate, quarantine the affected people, remove the source (i.e clean water), prevent recontamination of clean source of water and food (i.e sanitation). You think this can be achieved with 20 million Refugees? You can't do it with even 100,000:rolleyes: . What do you think PLA will be doing? fighting a war or controlling refugees?

Even without any of these problems Cholera cases break out in all parts of the world, including China. Latest case was in September 2005 in the cities of Jiaxing and Huzhou. Now try to imagine controlling that with 20 million refugees.

Goatboy
10 Oct 06,, 18:56
That's because China hasn't set any up and doesn't consider North Korean migrants refugees. The Chinese view is that they are economic migrants.

Yes but economic migrants migrate to jobs, and they don't all crowd into one location. 20 million North Koreans won't be travelling to Beijing, they'll stay in Manchuria near their homeland, and among the few million ethnic Koreans currently living in Manchuria. The impact on Manchuria would be massive. These people won't have jobs, nor will they be particularly productive. It's akin to 20 Katrinas all at once. It won't bankrupt China, but it will certainly be felt, politically, economically, and be written about in the front pages of every major newspaper for a long time to come.

Goatboy
10 Oct 06,, 19:14
Since when do entire countries voluntarily depopulate themselves in their 10's of millions? At gunpoint is an option, but certainly the North Korean army isn't up to the task -- and besides, what would it do, force the North Korean population at gunpoint to get up and leave for the Chinese border, then when everybody's across they lay down their guns and join the refugees as "economic migrants"?

Would the average North Korean have no qualms about abandoning their culture, homeland, and try to assimilate (by spreading across the whole land) into Chinese culture immedietely upon crossing the border? -- or, like other vast movements of political refugees historically, would they congregate in huge refugee camps and wait, longing for the first chance to return to the Korean peninsula (once it's safe). I don't think enough Chinese would want to play the "adopt a stray Korean" game either.

glow
10 Oct 06,, 19:38
:eek: .Are u kidding me.......What about the soldiers who sacrificed their life for the operation :frown: ???You can't let it all go in vain.

Ummm kinda like in the Korean war? The US should finish one war at a time.

Jay
10 Oct 06,, 21:38
China is larger than the US. It has a major excess of housing.
Excess housing? I do not believe China has excess housing. Even in that case just going by average, China will not be able to accomodate 20 million people.


A 20m influx does not mean that existing facilities have been destroyed, as happens during earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters. Existing facilities continue operating unhindered, although under a little strain.
20 million people pissing and shitting in your drains suddenly is a catastrophy.


If China asks, third countries, including the US, will also take at least hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees or provide billions in aid money - just look at what happened after the tsunami.
US cannot move hundreds and thousands of people, Katrina is a good example of how difficult it would be to move people and provide other facilities for an extended perios of time.


My conclusion is that the Chinese are pointing to the possibility of refugees merely as an excuse to avoid taking any action that might topple its North Korean proxy.
China evacuated 13 million people in the whole of 2005 for various natural disaster and it barely made it, OTOH accomodating 20 million NK in a short period of time is a disaster by itself.

Commando
11 Oct 06,, 00:34
Back on topic peoples. Overnight it seems China has been wavering and is confused on whether to accept the sanctions on North Korea. Well, its now up to the USA to be world police.

essay
11 Oct 06,, 00:46
excess of housing?What,s the hell are you talking about?Most Chinese ppls are complaining the expansive price of dwelling.If NK refugee flood in to China, how government to distribute houses ought to be Chinese ppls,to Korean refugees?And consequence is abosolutely a disaster to the stability of society,and some unstable elements will take the advantage of it to topple the government of it,s own.

China is larger than the US. It has a major excess of housing. I know - I've looked at a number of residential properties in-country - by tagging along behind realtors down dark and dank alleyways - and checking out 8 story walk-ups. In making assumptions about cholera and dysentery, you are suggesting that people will not be able to find adequate housing and plumbing facilities. I beg to differ. A 20m influx does not mean that existing facilities have been destroyed, as happens during earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters. Existing facilities continue operating unhindered, although under a little strain.

We are living in the 21st century. Refugees can be transported by truck or by train. They can also be moved to South Korea - something that every respondent seems to be avoiding like the plague. If China asks, third countries, including the US, will also take at least hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees or provide billions in aid money - just look at what happened after the tsunami. Note also that the US was providing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of fuel oil annually to the North Korean regime until their nuclear activities put a stop to this. I have little doubt the current US administration would pony up the cash to house the refugees as the price of toppling Kim Jong Il.

My conclusion is that the Chinese are pointing to the possibility of refugees merely as an excuse to avoid taking any action that might topple its North Korean proxy. Even if it decided not to assimilate them, the fact that North Korean refugees are automatically South Korean citizens and can go to South Korea just knocks the Chinese refugee argument flat on its back.

essay
11 Oct 06,, 00:50
Average Chinese can not afford the high price of house,even though they cast all their life deposit on it.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 01:15
Average Chinese can not afford the high price of house,even though they cast all their life deposit on it.Don't get me wrong - housing near the cities is expensive, by Chinese standards. But housing in the rural areas is dirt cheap. And in China, rural is merely 15 to 20 miles away, because most Chinese do not own cars, or can't afford a daily commute, even if they do own cars, because of gas prices.

Edgeplay_cgo
11 Oct 06,, 01:25
I,m a Chinese who strongly oppose the regime of damned north korea.And i really don,t understand that why USA and its allies don,t make something solidly on korea.

Because they're your neighbor. Your client state. Your protectorate. Your problem. Your fault.

China should solve Korea. I'd throw in the south as a prize.

Edgeplay_cgo
11 Oct 06,, 01:30
First and foremost, it's China's problem. They are the ones that have to deal with a nuclear peninsula, and radiation does not care about borders. They failed to prevent Kim from getting a nuke, so South Korea and Japan are within their rights of self defense to do the same.

Don't forget aboutTaiwan! :biggrin:

China is not happy about this. Now let them get off the dime and play like the Great Power they pretend to be.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 01:40
Excess housing? I do not believe China has excess housing. Even in that case just going by average, China will not be able to accomodate 20 million people.What you believe or don't believe isn't at issue here. The issue is what is available in China. There is a real innumeracy problem among the readers here. 20m people is less than 2 per cent of China's population. This is a population in which hundreds of millions have moved from rural areas to the cities - leaving what in the rural areas? Note that the average Chinese is starting to turn his nose up at farm work. I don't think the average malnourished North Korean is going to be too proud to till the soil.


20 million people pissing and shitting in your drains suddenly is a catastrophy.Only if they're all in one place. But as you might recall, the internal combustion engine was invented over 100 years ago, and facsimiles of such are widely available in China.


US cannot move hundreds and thousands of people, Katrina is a good example of how difficult it would be to move people and provide other facilities for an extended perios of time.Wrong. Read up about Katrina myths here (http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/2315076.html?page=1&c=y).



China evacuated 13 million people in the whole of 2005 for various natural disaster and it barely made it, OTOH accomodating 20 million NK in a short period of time is a disaster by itself.I'm not sure where you're getting the impression that China barely made it. In what sense? Let me be quite dispassionate about it. It is in the nature of things for some refugees to die, just as it is in nature of things for millions of North Koreans to die of starvation in their homeland. Even if China offered no refugee aid whatsoever - and it would be within China's longstanding practice to deny aid - North Koreans would have better odds of survival in China than they do in North Korea. The problem in North Korea isn't that the government can't feed them, since it is populations that the feed the government - but that the government won't allow them to feed themselves - thanks to its insistence upon juche socialism.

Besides, you've once again ignored the elephant in the room, which is that North Koreans are automatically South Korean citizens and can be shipped off to South Korea, making it somebody else's problem.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 01:49
What atlas are you looking at???

I suggest you go back to highschool and brush up on your Geography my friend

America 9,629,091 square kilometers

China 9,596,960 square kilometers

If you are talking about population, then you should state so, otherwise it looks like you have no clue what you are talking about.If you want to be pedantic, yes, China is smaller than the US, if you want to count bodies of water. But since refugees (and most other people) don't generally own yachts, I was referring to China being larger based on land area. But even this clarification is besides the point - whether slightly larger or slightly smaller than the US, China still has half of Britain's population density, making it a relatively empty land - relative to Britain, anyway.

Edgeplay_cgo
11 Oct 06,, 01:50
so u are a communist without knowing anything about communism or any other forms or government! WOW. typical commie. im sure all u need to know is in ur little red book:)

<Shrug> The typical Murican doesn't know any more about Capitalism and Communism.

essay
11 Oct 06,, 01:55
Yes you are right,but it,s an inevitable trend that Korean refugees will go to the big city for job,and it,s the big challenge to job market and sanitation apparatus.

Don't get me wrong - housing near the cities is expensive, by Chinese standards. But housing in the rural areas is dirt cheap. And in China, rural is merely 15 to 20 miles away, because most Chinese do not own cars, or can't afford a daily commute, even if they do own cars, because of gas prices.

Officer of Engineers
11 Oct 06,, 01:58
*** shaking my head ***

And the Klingons can use their replicators from the Birds of Prey to provide unlimited water and use their transporters to beam the crap away.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 02:03
Since when do entire countries voluntarily depopulate themselves in their 10's of millions? At gunpoint is an option, but certainly the North Korean army isn't up to the task -- and besides, what would it do, force the North Korean population at gunpoint to get up and leave for the Chinese border, then when everybody's across they lay down their guns and join the refugees as "economic migrants"?You are getting away from the point which is the question of whether China can deal with a swarm of refugees. I have argued that China could take in all 20m without breaking a sweat, not that all 20m would want to take the risk of crossing the border. And it wouldn't take all 20m to cross for the North Korean government to fall. Millions of East Germans crossed to the West via Hungary - and the East German government fell.


Would the average North Korean have no qualms about abandoning their culture, homeland, and try to assimilate (by spreading across the whole land) into Chinese culture immedietely upon crossing the border? -- or, like other vast movements of political refugees historically, would they congregate in huge refugee camps and wait, longing for the first chance to return to the Korean peninsula (once it's safe). I don't think enough Chinese would want to play the "adopt a stray Korean" game either.It's silly to talk about culture, homeland, etc, when North Koreans have more basic concerns such as trying to avoid starving to death. All of the above are questions you deal with *after* you resolve the basic issue of survival. Without life, there is no culture, homeland, etc. As to congregating in camps - are you kidding me? They have no food and no freedom back in their home country, so they should expect free food, lodging and the freedom to do whatever they want in China? If China takes them in, it is going to be on Chinese terms, which would be better than North Korean terms, but certainly not as free and easy as Western terms.

And if everything else fails, there's always the South Korean option, since every North Korean is automatically a South Korean citizen. This is a live option, but only if China will stop automatically repatriating North Korean refugees back to North Korea instead of handing them over to the ROK, which has accepted every refugee handed over by China.

Edgeplay_cgo
11 Oct 06,, 02:08
What you believe or don't believe isn't at issue here. The issue is what is available in China. There is a real innumeracy problem among the readers here. 20m people is less than 2 per cent of China's population.

The issue isn't with 20M Koreans. The issue is with 20M Koreans showing up relatively overnight, and in a small area of China. They must move through the border areas before they get to the cities. They must eat now. People don't eat in the long run. Refugees are far poorer than economic migrants. They have fewer reserves than even the poorest migrant. They will also be dying in large numbers, and in a concentrated area.

They will devastate the parth of their migration like a plague of locusts. Eventually, the survivors will settle into society and disappear without a ripple.


Only if they're all in one place. But as you might recall, the internal combustion engine was invented over 100 years ago, and facsimiles of such are widely available in China.

They will be all in one place, or near enough as doesn't matter and for long enough to be a problem.

Look at the number of vehicle trip kilometres necessary to move those warm bodies. And the cold ones as well. This is a major logistic operation along a logistic network that will be already strained by having armies preempt the lines of communications and fuel supplies. If you really want to muck up a transportation and fuel system, impose an army on the march onto them. Adding vast numbers of refuges would be chaos, and could bring both operations crashing down.

Look at the logistic strain placed on Nazi Germany by transporting only a few millions during the Holocaust. Germany was richer in transportation assets than China is today, and were probably more basic in their accommodations than even you would be.


It is in the nature of things for some refugees to die, just as it is in nature of things for millions of North Koreans to die of starvation in their homeland. Even if China offered no refugee aid whatsoever - and it would be within China's longstanding practice to deny aid ...

This is the part many readers here are finding it difficult to understand. You are willing to accept a far greater attrition rate than most western countries are accustomed to contemplating. That would work to your advantage, but it's not an unqualified advantage. Even with the historical Chinese indifference to the plight of the refugees, dealing with great numbers in a concentrated area would be chaotic. It's not as easy as you suggest.

Could you absorb all of NORK in a year or two, probably. In a single winter with a war on? No way. You can't. We can't. Nobody can.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 02:19
*** shaking my head ***

And the Klingons can use their replicators from the Birds of Prey to provide unlimited water and use their transporters to beam the crap away.China doesn't need Star Trek technology to deal with North Korean refugees for the following reasons - (1) 20m people is less than 2% of China's population and (2) modern transportation can move people hundreds of miles away in a single day. And if the Chinese request it, the US has hundreds of thousands of tons of surplus milk powder, cheese, wheat and all manner of surplus foodstuffs (thanks to agricultural subsidies) that could presumably be put to good use outside of government warehouses. 20m people is a fair-sized number of people, but even in a country as large as China, the North Koreans could be dispersed across the country in 3 or 4 days, where on average, they would add 2% to the waste output of various cities and rural areas. Would it be rough on the NK refugees for them to be forcibly separated? Sure - but not as rough as starving (or being beaten) to death in North Korea. And they can always get back together once they've found jobs and settled in - on their own dime.

astralis
11 Oct 06,, 02:27
zhang fei,


But even this clarification is besides the point - whether slightly larger or slightly smaller than the US, China still has half of Britain's population density, making it a relatively empty land - relative to Britain, anyway.

LOL. way to count in places like inner mongolia, xinjiang, and tibet- all relatively lifeless places.

now, you say you have taken some statistics, that is well and good. so, you should know- how many chinese live in the eastern third of the country? how many live along the coast? (this figure ranges, but nevertheless, it is still quite high.)

or, taking a closer look at where the expected disaster would take place, how many people are located in the three provinces there? assuming 50% of the NKs actually try running across the border- what is the percentage of that population?

and of course, you know, because that area used to figure quite heavily (and to some degree still does) on old light+heavy industries, it's not the richest place in china, nor is it the least-polluted.

in any case, the main thing isn't numbers. it's time, as col yu and others have mentioned.

astralis
11 Oct 06,, 02:28
but even in a country as large as China, the North Koreans could be dispersed across the country in 3 or 4 days

um no.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 02:32
Look at the logistic strain placed on Nazi Germany by transporting only a few millions during the Holocaust. Germany was richer in transportation assets than China is today, and were probably more basic in their accommodations than even you would be.Nazi Germany was simultaneously transporting ammo and fuel across the European continent and to North Africa for something like ten million troops, not to mention transporting hundreds of thousands of troops to and from furloughs all the time and fighting local partisans. I expect that if a North Korean refugee crisis erupts, China won't simultaneously be fighting a continental-scale war that strains its budget and uses up all of its able-bodied young men. By the way, you are the nth person to ignore the possibility of China making this a South Korean problem instead of a Chinese problem.

Canmoore
11 Oct 06,, 02:38
If you want to be pedantic, yes, China is smaller than the US, if you want to count bodies of water. But since refugees (and most other people) don't generally own yachts, I was referring to China being larger based on land area. But even this clarification is besides the point - whether slightly larger or slightly smaller than the US, China still has half of Britain's population density, making it a relatively empty land - relative to Britain, anyway.

Your forgot to mention that China also boasts alot of mountainous regions, and some of the most arid deserts on the planet (china's arable land is turning into desert at a rapid pace). These areas are empty for a reason, so I guess you are going to force 20million people to live on the side of a mountain, or in a desert right?

You say that China is half of Britains density...well woopty fukking do!!

Britain has a population of 60million, squeezed into an island almost the same size as Honshu.

Galrahn
11 Oct 06,, 02:39
I don't usually get involved in these discussions, but I think the UN proposal for the Naval boardings 'could' end up being very smart, if it includes Chapter 7, AND it includes the PLAN.

The UN is well known for its symbolism, but NK has disrupted stability and it could effect economics, and if it does China will take a hit. Lets be adults, if China couldn't stop NK from detonating its nukes, the US had no chance at all in stopping it, so the blame game of politics in the US is silly and pointless at this juncture.

BUT... if the UN comes out with a proposal that puts the JMSDF, PLAN, and USN on the same side, it sends a powerful conventional military message to NK that doesn't include military action against NK, it also sends a clear signal of stability to the economic sector, and most importantly, it sends a clear signal to the world that weaponizing Asia with nuclear weapons isn't the only credible response, because when nations form military cooperations it builds relationships, and reduces the needs for nuclear weapons.

Without the PLAN though, it wouldn't work, and nuclearization will happen. With the PLAN, I'd bet to see the RoK and Russia jump onboard, if anything else to make a statement regarding the role they see for themselves in the stability of the region.

Canmoore
11 Oct 06,, 02:41
Japanese tremors raise fears of second North Korean test (http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/10/china-position.html)


...wtf

Officer of Engineers
11 Oct 06,, 02:43
Nazi Germany was simultaneously transporting ammo and fuel across the European continent and to North Africa for something like ten million troops,

WHAT?!?!?! HAHDHDHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH

BREATHE


HAHDHDHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH

Canmoore
11 Oct 06,, 02:47
calm down OOE...breath, take a shot of scotch...just breath:biggrin:

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 03:01
Your forgot to mention that China also boasts alot of mountainous regions, and some of the most arid deserts on the planet (china's arable land is turning into desert at a rapid pace). These areas are empty for a reason, so I guess you are going to force 20million people to live on the side of a mountain, or in a desert right?

You say that China is half of Britains density...well woopty fukking do!!

Britain has a population of 60million, squeezed into an island almost the same size as Honshu.I'm afraid that's bunk, but fine - let's slice China's livable area by half. That would still bring it somewhat below Britain's population density.* And any North Korean influx would affect that population density by less than 2%. Look - the China is already overcrowded argument just won't fly.

* It would still be no more than 1/25 of Hong Kong's population density.

Canmoore
11 Oct 06,, 03:04
whatever..have fun pitching tents for those 20million people

astralis
11 Oct 06,, 03:13
zhang fei,

i posed some questions to you regarding this matter. try answering them, and maybe bunk isn't so bunk. :biggrin:

Galrahn
11 Oct 06,, 03:18
Japanese tremors raise fears of second North Korean test (http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/10/china-position.html)

This was expected.

When Pakistan blew up nukes in 1998 (http://www.cdi.org/issues/testing/pak1.html), 2 days later there was a major earthquake (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1998/eq_980530/) on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region. 4000 people died.

Earlier that month, India tested nukes which set off earthquakes in Kashmir.

Nobody cared about Afghanistan at the time, so it went unnoticed, but I did predict this on another forum last week that given the seismic instability of Japan, a NK nuke test could trigger earthquakes, and if they caused major damage, could potentially start a war.

Luckily this quake appears harmless.

The relationship between nuclear tests underground in Nevada and earthquakes in California used to be a popular thesis topic for geological studies. Since the US stopped underground testing throughout the 90s, it hasn't been a popular topic, although I bet it pops up again on the radar after the earthquake in Japan.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 03:23
zhang fei,



LOL. way to count in places like inner mongolia, xinjiang, and tibet- all relatively lifeless places.

now, you say you have taken some statistics, that is well and good. so, you should know- how many chinese live in the eastern third of the country? how many live along the coast? (this figure ranges, but nevertheless, it is still quite high.)

or, taking a closer look at where the expected disaster would take place, how many people are located in the three provinces there? assuming 50% of the NKs actually try running across the border- what is the percentage of that population?

and of course, you know, because that area used to figure quite heavily (and to some degree still does) on old light+heavy industries, it's not the richest place in china, nor is it the least-polluted.

in any case, the main thing isn't numbers. it's time, as col yu and others have mentioned.Look - you can give me all the qualitative, wishy-washy impressions you want, but that 2% number just won't budge. 20m isn't 200m and 1.2b isn't 120m. And there's always the ROK option, where the refugees are transported to a Chinese port and shipped directly to a South Korean port.

But let me address something that seems to pervade your comments. I think you misunderstand the Chinese mentality. First, it is not the Chinese custom to worry about the welfare of complete strangers. Second, when the Chinese can stir themselves to any effort in their behalf, the motto isn't zero-defect - it's quick and dirty. You are applying Western standards to Chinese efforts. Any Chinese refugee effort will be on a token rather than best efforts basis. North Korean refugees will die by the hundreds or thousands - perhaps even in the tens of thousands. But the vast majority of them will survive. And the average Chinese won't view any incidental deaths as a disaster, since that's no worse than the government's record in dealing with China's internal refugees. Beggars can't be choosers might be an English saying, but it might as well be a Chinese proverb.

astralis
11 Oct 06,, 03:34
zhang fei,

well, that's a nice way of saying you don't know the answers to my questions.


I think you misunderstand the Chinese mentality.

considering my origins, my previous work in china- i don't think i do. the point here is not so much the refugees, but the impact all those refugees will have on the chinese populace.

given the amount of knowledge you've demonstrated of logistics thus far, i don't think you understand that impact.

Goatboy
11 Oct 06,, 03:37
You are getting away from the point which is the question of whether China can deal with a swarm of refugees. I have argued that China could take in all 20m without breaking a sweat, not that all 20m would want to take the risk of crossing the border. And it wouldn't take all 20m to cross for the North Korean government to fall. Millions of East Germans crossed to the West via Hungary - and the East German government fell.



I think you might be missing the critical issue here however: East Germans
are Germans. North Koreans are Korean, and not Chinese. Not the same language, not the same customs, and a different history (FAR more different than East and West Germans). Analogous to, guess what, North and South Korea merging!



It's silly to talk about culture, homeland, etc, when North Koreans have more basic concerns such as trying to avoid starving to death. All of the above are questions you deal with *after* you resolve the basic issue of survival. Without life, there is no culture, homeland, etc. As to congregating in camps - are you kidding me? They have no food and no freedom back in their home country, so they should expect free food, lodging and the freedom to do whatever they want in China?


Correct, food and survival are the most important considerations, but what do such temporary considerations have to do with the assimilation into mainstream Chinese society? These are two very different issues. Analogous to your cousin's house burning down. Of course you invite him into your home, you feed him, comfort him, help him get in touch with other family members, but in no way would you expect to provide him with permanent shelter, as he has no intention of remaining permanently either. Taking care of someone in their time of need does not constitute "permanent adoption".



If China takes them in, it is going to be on Chinese terms, which would be better than North Korean terms, but certainly not as free and easy as Western terms.


Chinese "terms" have ALWAYS been "Koreans remain in North Korea".



And if everything else fails, there's always the South Korean option, since every North Korean is automatically a South Korean citizen. This is a live option, but only if China will stop automatically repatriating North Korean refugees back to North Korea instead of handing them over to the ROK, which has accepted every refugee handed over by China.

How many countries in history have ever welcomed 20 million "aliens" all at once, and taken steps to ensure their assimilation into that respective society? Temporarily provide for? yes (along with the Red Cross, UN). China could handle the influx yes, but they'd be doing so with one goal and one alone: the repatriation of North Korean refugees back to Korea.

Sure, South Korea would help, and as a matter of fact, they would provide the greatest impetus for North Korean refugees to return to their homeland!
If South Korea exists, then it's a guarantee that Chinese policy toward North Korean refugees is not going to be: "lets assimilate" Koreans into society and spread them across the Chinese mainland to ensure adequate housing. No, China will "feed them", "clothe them", and with the help of international sponsors -- "house them temporarily", BUT send them back ASAP".

lemontree
11 Oct 06,, 06:06
I fail to understand what makes most members here think that China has no control over NK.

This is a Chinese move all the way, and I don't believe their statements denouncing the NK test. Its all a show on their part.

Officer of Engineers
11 Oct 06,, 06:15
I fail to understand what makes most members here think that China has no control over NK.

Well, Captain, I'm one of those who thinks China has no control over Kim. You do know that the Kims have rewritten their history to erase all Chinese participation in the Korean War and the graves of Chinese troops in Korea are at best neglected, at worst killed.

The Kims have played Moscow against Beijing, and vice versa.

The games the Kims have played with Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington with Beijing in the mix. Those of us who watched China during the Cold War saw the same thing. Neither Moscow nor Beijing knew which side of the Sino-Soviet split the Kims would side with.

Zhang Fei
11 Oct 06,, 10:02
zhang fei,

well, that's a nice way of saying you don't know the answers to my questions.Actually, my response was a way of saying that I'll respond to your points when you respond to mine. Unlike you, I'm not going to assume that you don't have a response - merely that you think my arguments are beneath contempt and not worthy of a response. In other words, you're employing what I'll call the classic Chinese filibuster/stonewall.

Officer of Engineers
11 Oct 06,, 12:31
The Russian claims of a 5-15kt device can be thrown out the window. Their own data does not support that conclusion

http://www.ceme.gsras.ru/cgi-bin/info_quakee.pl?mode=1&id=84

They reported a 4.0 in the r-scale.

PandaRoo
11 Oct 06,, 17:46
Reminds me of the film Team America. Love Trey and Matt~:D
Well, you American guys should get into real quick action
and save the motherf***ing day!

Well, I don't like the idea of having the refugees flooding into China.
While in Australia I'd even be pissed off when some people try to speak Cantonese to me in restaurants. I'd tell them to speak either English or Mandarin. Too troublesome to have a big group there that will hardly ever integrate.

But we ordinary people here don't call the shots so...
whatever~(the way Sebastian in Little Britain pronounces it)

PandaRoo
11 Oct 06,, 17:58
Well, Captain, I'm one of those who thinks China has no control over Kim. You do know that the Kims have rewritten their history to erase all Chinese participation in the Korean War and the graves of Chinese troops in Korea are at best neglected, at worst killed.

The Kims have played Moscow against Beijing, and vice versa.

The games the Kims have played with Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington with Beijing in the mix. Those of us who watched China during the Cold War saw the same thing. Neither Moscow nor Beijing knew which side of the Sino-Soviet split the Kims would side with.

Well, NK hopes that everybody else thinks that China has a strong influence over them so that they would think twice before they do anything to NK.

Meanwhile probably some countries out there do hope China has a strong influence over the NK so that NK could still be dissuaded from walking down the wrong path.

The irony, however, is in reality China has very little influence there.
You guys are correct with the facts after the war in early 1950s.
There wasn't even a honeymoon during the war.
And the post-coitus kicks were surely big pains in the neck for Beijing afterwards.

Probably that's politics, where you don't always get what you see.

Officer of Engineers
11 Oct 06,, 18:10
The irony, however, is in reality China has very little influence there.

Oh I don't know. Cutting off the electricity and water would grab Kim's attention but that's a double edged sword and Kim knows it.

Canmoore
11 Oct 06,, 19:35
This was expected.

When Pakistan blew up nukes in 1998 (http://www.cdi.org/issues/testing/pak1.html), 2 days later there was a major earthquake (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1998/eq_980530/) on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region. 4000 people died.

Earlier that month, India tested nukes which set off earthquakes in Kashmir.

Nobody cared about Afghanistan at the time, so it went unnoticed, but I did predict this on another forum last week that given the seismic instability of Japan, a NK nuke test could trigger earthquakes, and if they caused major damage, could potentially start a war.

Luckily this quake appears harmless.

The relationship between nuclear tests underground in Nevada and earthquakes in California used to be a popular thesis topic for geological studies. Since the US stopped underground testing throughout the 90s, it hasn't been a popular topic, although I bet it pops up again on the radar after the earthquake in Japan.


very interesting...thanks!

kams
11 Oct 06,, 19:42
very interesting...thanks!

Now I do need that Weed real bad:biggrin:

Glad to see that OOE recoved fully from that nasty shock:eek:

Parihaka
11 Oct 06,, 22:26
*** shaking my head ***

And the Klingons can use their replicators from the Birds of Prey to provide unlimited water and use their transporters to beam the crap away.

So Sir, as an engineer, you have one week to supply food, water, shelter and sanitation for already malnourished refugees starting from zero and growing to lets say just 10 million in that week.
Your Government has also tasked you with preventing those refugees from dispersing throughout your country.
How many divisions will you need?:biggrin:

kams
12 Oct 06,, 00:05
So Sir, as an engineer, you have one week to supply food, water, shelter and sanitation for already malnourished refugees starting from zero and growing to lets say just 10 million in that week.
Your Government has also tasked you with preventing those refugees from dispersing throughout your country.
How many divisions will you need?:biggrin:

And Sir, while you are at it, please ensure medical care for approximately 200,000 refugees (1% of refugees with serious injuries, old people, babies etc etc...or do you prefer to shoot them?), may be some out patient care for another 200,000-500,000 (ahhh forget it, let Darwin take care of them, survival of fittest), make sure that no epidemic breaks out (proper burial for 50,000-100,000). Then ensure transportation to South Korean Border (mmm lets see at 2000 refugees/Train its 10,000 trips).

Oh I almost forgot..keep our Army supplied and we have to win a war:biggrin:

Our Good Wishes and Prayers are with you.:eek:

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 02:22
Way, Way, Way above my pay grade. However, for a single battle group with a full engineering regt, I could handle about 10,000 people provided I have the proper location.

astralis
12 Oct 06,, 02:40
zhang fei,


Actually, my response was a way of saying that I'll respond to your points when you respond to mine. Unlike you, I'm not going to assume that you don't have a response - merely that you think my arguments are beneath contempt and not worthy of a response. In other words, you're employing what I'll call the classic Chinese filibuster/stonewall.

alright, you asked for it. i used those questions as a WAY TO RESPOND TO YOURS. the answer to MY questions is effectively my answer to you. and as you don't seem to know the answer to those questions, i will answer them for you.


now, you say you have taken some statistics, that is well and good. so, you should know- how many chinese live in the eastern third of the country? how many live along the coast? (this figure ranges, but nevertheless, it is still quite high.)

or, taking a closer look at where the expected disaster would take place, how many people are located in the three provinces there? assuming 50% of the NKs actually try running across the border- what is the percentage of that population?

and of course, you know, because that area used to figure quite heavily (and to some degree still does) on old light+heavy industries, it's not the richest place in china, nor is it the least-polluted.




94% of chinese live in the eastern third of the country.
56% of chinese live in the 13 southeast/coastal provinces as well as two coastal municipalities (Shanghai, Tianjin).

in the three provinces that border NK- heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning- have around 100 million people. assuming HALF of north korea's 23 million people run across the china-NK border, that is around 12% of the population in the area!!!

considering that right now, in peacetime, around 300 million chinese do not have access to clean drinking water, yes, i would say that the north korean refugee problem will be a friggin' disaster. not just for north koreans but for chinese. considering how many problems the world's richest nation had with katrina, a disaster that required evacution of "only" 1.2 million people...

essay
12 Oct 06,, 03:23
Yup,America is the richest and most powerful nation of the world.That,s the only reason that why US government badly cope with katrina!After the disaster ,the whole city sunk into anarchy and became the hotbed of sin and crime which never could be expected in China.Chinese ppls have a high discipline,esp in hard time.China is such a country in where ppls always have to cope with lot of disasters include natural disaster and that made by warlords.In contrast,American ppls live in a better-off society,and they rarely experience what Chinese have to endure.And as a consequence of it,American do worse than Chinese during the time of disaster.

zhang fei,



alright, you asked for it. i used those questions as a WAY TO RESPOND TO YOURS. the answer to MY questions is effectively my answer to you. and as you don't seem to know the answer to those questions, i will answer them for you.





94% of chinese live in the eastern third of the country.
56% of chinese live in the 13 southeast/coastal provinces as well as two coastal municipalities (Shanghai, Tianjin).

in the three provinces that border NK- heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning- have around 100 million people. assuming HALF of north korea's 23 million people run across the china-NK border, that is around 12% of the population in the area!!!

considering that right now, in peacetime, around 300 million chinese do not have access to clean drinking water, yes, i would say that the north korean refugee problem will be a friggin' disaster. not just for north koreans but for chinese. considering how many problems the world's richest nation had with katrina, a disaster that required evacution of "only" 1.2 million people...

astralis
12 Oct 06,, 03:29
essay,

"high discipline" huh? apparently you don't know jack all about chinese history. the GPCR wasn't that long ago.

Edgeplay_cgo
12 Oct 06,, 04:33
This was expected.

When Pakistan blew up nukes in 1998 (http://www.cdi.org/issues/testing/pak1.html), 2 days later there was a major earthquake (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1998/eq_980530/) on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region. 4000 people died.

Earlier that month, India tested nukes which set off earthquakes in Kashmir.

I'm somewhat dubious that a sub kiloton blast in Korea would trigger a release under the Sea of Japan. If that's the case, it was ready to rip, anyway.

Zhang Fei
12 Oct 06,, 05:11
So Sir, as an engineer, you have one week to supply food, water, shelter and sanitation for already malnourished refugees starting from zero and growing to lets say just 10 million in that week.
Your Government has also tasked you with preventing those refugees from dispersing throughout your country.
How many divisions will you need?:biggrin:I believe the underlying assumption of refugee "time on target" is unwarranted. Unless you assume some kind of Star Trek teleportation device to beam them simultaneously across the border. Even Star Trek involved the beaming of no more than a few dozen people at a time.

If the Chinese can't simultaneously move 20m refugees across a rapidly-developing country with trucks and tens of thousands of miles of paved roads, there is no reason to assume that 20m North Korean refugees can move on foot across rugged (and sometimes mined) terrain, past armed North Korean soldiers and police with shoot-to-kill orders in various districts, with only the food and water they can carry or pay for, and somehow show up simultaneously on Chinese soil.* In North Korea, the refugees would be like soldiers marching across the land, except they'd be doing so without trucks, shelter or logistical support through a sub-freezing Korean winter**. Even East Germans chugging across to West Germany in Trabants (and fistfuls of East German marks to buy food and gasoline along the way) via Hungary did not show up simultaneously on West German soil.

* Here's a clue - Napoleon's Grand Army, peopled as it was with fit, combat-age males, marched at the rapid pace of 15 miles a day. Note that this army was the 800-pound gorilla of the day, which meant it could take anything off the locals that it wanted - on pain of death (which was partially how it wore out its welcome rapidly). These refugees won't have that option, which means they will have to forage for food, water, shelter - all the basic necessities of life. They will have along with them young and old family members either too delicate or decrepit to move rapidly.

** Although marching through this weather is still preferable to dying of starvation in North Korea. If the soldiers don't have enough to eat (as appears to be the case, given reports of North Korean soldiers scrounging food off Chinese tourists) and it's merely early fall - what do you think is happening to the civilians?

Parihaka
12 Oct 06,, 05:33
I believe the underlying assumption of refugee "time on target" is unwarranted. Unless you assume some kind of Star Trek teleportation device to beam them simultaneously across the border. Even Star Trek involved the beaming of no more than a few dozen people at a time.

If the Chinese can't simultaneously move 20m refugees across a rapidly-developing country with trucks and tens of thousands of miles of paved roads, there is no reason to assume that 20m North Korean refugees can move on foot across rugged (and sometimes mined) terrain, past armed North Korean soldiers and police with shoot-to-kill orders in various districts, with only the food and water they can carry or pay for, and somehow show up simultaneously on Chinese soil.* In North Korea, the refugees would be like soldiers marching across the land, except they'd be doing so without trucks, shelter or logistical support through a sub-freezing Korean winter**. Even East Germans chugging across to West Germany in Trabants (and fistfuls of East German marks to buy food and gasoline along the way) via Hungary did not show up simultaneously on West German soil.

* Here's a clue - Napoleon's Grand Army, peopled as it was with fit, combat-age males, marched at the rapid pace of 15 miles a day. Note that this army was the 800-pound gorilla of the day, which meant it could take anything off the locals that it wanted - on pain of death (which was partially how it wore out its welcome rapidly). These refugees won't have that option, which means they will have to forage for food, water, shelter - all the basic necessities of life. They will have along with them young and old family members either too delicate or decrepit to move rapidly.

** Although marching through this weather is still preferable to dying of starvation in North Korea. If the soldiers don't have enough to eat (as appears to be the case, given reports of North Korean soldiers scrounging food off Chinese tourists) and it's merely early fall - what do you think is happening to the civilians?

Firstly, the whole idea is for China NOT to have the refugees on their soil, China's aim is to contain those refugees as close to NK soil as possible or even within NK.
Even so they are still refugees requiring everything done for them. You've already heard a Lt Colonel engineer say that "for a single battle group with a full engineering regt, I could handle about 10,000 people provided I have the proper location."
Think for instance how long it takes to move hundreds of thousands of army personnel to a theatre of operations (an organisation specialising in mass movement of personnel), and then multiply that by 100, without the specialised supporting infrastructure and organisation.

As for the time frame, when the refugees start to move, they move (and die) en masse. So there may be more or less preparation time depending on their ability to travel, but when they arrive, they arrive in their millions.

Ironduke
12 Oct 06,, 06:06
After the disaster ,the whole city sunk into anarchy and became the hotbed of sin and crime which never could be expected in China.
Actually that's a bit of a stretch. No copters got shot at, no women got raped. 6 people died in the Superdome, 4 of natural causes, 1 suicide, 1 stabbing. Looting consisted of taking necessities, mainly.

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 07:32
I believe the underlying assumption of refugee "time on target" is unwarranted.

Oh for crying out loud. SHUT UP AND LEARN, YOU IMBECILLE!

How many refugees are going to cross the border in one day? 100? 500? 1,000? 10,000? How many of them are fit able body men? How many old? How many women and children? How many families? How many criminals? How many are armed North Korean soldiers taking whatever they can get from whoever and whatever, including rape? How are you going to handle all that?

Are you going to seperate the men away from the children? Are you going to break up families because I will tell you that families are already broken up long before they got there. Kids would be lucky if a kind stranger would deliver them to a man in uniform. More than likely, they're left on their own to die or to march ... or worst to be eatened.

So, what are you going to do? Have buses and trains ready at the border to ship them to cities and then, let them go in the cities to beg on the streets where they don't even speak the language? That is the most stupid pile of horse pucky you ignorant idiot dumb ass clown don't think things through. Where are they going to get their water? From inside people's homes through their taps? How many homeless dirty filth stinking have YOU allowed into your home? Where guess where these people are going to go? Into the sewers.

So, let's say you process them to seperate the good from the bad? How many people can you interview in a day? Are you going to be heartless? Because you damned well better be. What about the people waiting in line? Where are they going to eat, sh!t, and sleep? In the line? What about the people who don't want to wait in line? There's a friggin town no more than 10 miles away, walking distance. Are you going to let them go? To invade homes when they get desperate for food, water, and shelter?

The best and ONLY solution are camps where you know where people are and how to control them and that also means including uniting kids with their families. It's alot easier to look for Mom Y for Kid Y when you know which tent they sleep in than it is to look for them in a cities sewers.

I asked YOU what would you do with 100 people overnight. You didn't answer. You just go away and take a stupid example fo Napolean's Army. Ok, you stupid jerk, how many died there and not from the Cossacks? More died freezing and starving than by bullet or sabre.

You know crap all. Don't even pretend for one second you know how to handle refugees. You don't. I've done it.

And lay off the military examples of which you clearly knows crap. The Nazis supplying a 10 million man force through two continents - HORSE PUCKEY!

Zhang Fei
12 Oct 06,, 08:43
You know crap all. Don't even pretend for one second you know how to handle refugees. You don't. I've done it.The only direct perspective you have on people is as wards of the state, whether as government employees or as refugees. Unlike government employees, refugees can actually earn their own keep. The Chinese government can choose from a pool of millions of Chinese Koreans to translate for the refugees and organize them into coherent groups for employment and housing. What I've left out is the fact that just as large numbers of South Koreans learn English, due to the American occupation of South Korea, large numbers of North Koreans learn Chinese (Mandarin, specifically), due to the efforts of the Chinese People's Volunteer Army during the Korean War.

If 40,000 arrive daily, a plan to disperse them would involve relays of buses between cities and towns and roundtrip journeys (for the buses only - the passengers would move to the next leg of the relay) lasting several hours. A standing-room only bus or truckload could probably fit 40 people on a vehicle. Assuming the commandeering of army vehicles and civilian trucks and buses, each city could probably muster up to 1000 buses and trucks, at minimum, without significant disruption to the local economies. And then there are the trains, which can embark, on a standing room basis, thousands of people per leg of the relay. Tens of thousands can, of course, be embarked on ships at Chinese ports to sail for the southern Chinese cities.

The idea that tens of thousands of people can't be transported, fed and sheltered daily across China is wrong. During long Chinese holidays (such as May Day, National Day or the Chinese New Year), hundreds of millions travel back to their hometowns or to vacation spots. All of these people have to be housed and fed. Tens of millions stay at hotels and dine at local restaurants. China might be a relatively poor country by Western standards, but it isn't North Korea, and it's certainly no sub-Saharan African country in terms of infrastructure.

China definitely has the both the physical and financial means to deal with the refugees. If it puts up a dollar figure, say 10 billion dollars a year ($500 per capita), for taking in North Korean refugees, could Japan, South Korea and the West say no to such a request? Uncle Sam is spending 100b dollars a year in Iraq. Note that if all 20m show up in China, Kim's government would collapse, which would mean they could all be repatriated - in short order - once South Korea takes over a unified Korea.

Zhang Fei
12 Oct 06,, 08:58
I asked YOU what would you do with 100 people overnight.I did not respond directly because I thought it was too self-evident to answer.* A Chinese government official would simply contact a few local companies and tell them to house these people in their dorms for a single night - no cots, no nothing - they'd sleep on the floor and use the existing plumbing facilities. He would send a guy around to arrange for several catering operations to deliver extra food to the dorms for these people. If he were being generous, he could choose to compensate the companies for their trouble. Or not. To ensure security, he'd confine them to the dorm and have a few local cops spread around to deal with them. He'd also send for Korean translators if none of the refugees spoke Mandarin to get them organized and find shelter and work for them. Now, you might consider this rocket science, but civilians consider it second nature.

* The other reason is that you only have to respond to me. I'm dealing with a blanket party. I don't have time to think through and answer every single question - that's a full-time job in and of itself. And to be quite honest, your standard response is an argument from authority - it's kind of like Jimmy Carter telling someone off for criticizing him over his handling of the Iranian Revolution with the response that his critic has never been the president of the United States.

Zhang Fei
12 Oct 06,, 09:06
And lay off the military examples of which you clearly knows crap. The Nazis supplying a 10 million man force through two continents - HORSE PUCKEY!Is this your way of saying that the Nazis grew their own ammunition and their own crops where they were? If you're going to be condescending, please at least provide some reference points for the uninitiated - we can't be all as brilliant as you evidently are. I understand that some may feel that you are Genghis Khan and Lord Wellesley rolled into one. The rest of us - the great unwashed - would enjoy somewhat more explicit pearls of wisdom - even if granting them might be construed as casting pearls before swine.

Parihaka
12 Oct 06,, 11:39
If 40,000 arrive daily

I'm sorry but your numbers simply do not stack up. On the one hand your claiming the ability to handle 40,000 a day, on the other hand your claiming to be able to handle 20 million. So, at 40,000 a day, thats 400,000 in 10 days, 4million in 100, 20 million in 500 days. How about 40,000 in day three, 127 thousand in day 4, 800,000 in day 5, 1 million in day 6, by then of course, just on day 5 you need twenty thousand buses, plus fuel plus somewhere to take them, plus food, plus medical care, plus your roading infrastructure collapsing, ah but of course you know all this don't you, your just trolling:rolleyes:
There I go getting sucked in again.

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 14:34
Is this your way of saying that the Nazis grew their own ammunition and their own crops where they were?

It means do your god damned research before you spout such stupidity before those of us who did this kind of thing for a living. I ain't about to do your homework for you. You're the idiot who posted the garbage.

Commando
12 Oct 06,, 14:47
The Nazi's attempted to become self sufficient although this was not successful. Why did operation barbarossa stall? Because the Germans wanted to hold onto Kiev in the Ukraine and control food facilities and resources. Hence self sufficiency was failing, and it failed before that when they invaded Poland. What do you think they did with the Polish food? Officer Of Engineers i totally agree with you on this and your view towards the North Koreans immigration into China.

Also, if North Koreans immigrate into China. China will cease to exist. The North Korean soldiers are taught Kim Jong Ill is there father and divine. If there country gets attacked, with Chinese involvement. They will use terrorist methods in retaliation to China once they have entered the country. China can't defend itself against this.

astralis
12 Oct 06,, 16:57
Also, if North Koreans immigrate into China. China will cease to exist. The North Korean soldiers are taught Kim Jong Ill is there father and divine. If there country gets attacked, with Chinese involvement. They will use terrorist methods in retaliation to China once they have entered the country. China can't defend itself against this.

wow, are you trying to tie essay for most ridiculous exaggeration on this thread? :biggrin:

SRB
12 Oct 06,, 22:59
I dont get it.
Why so much noise about NK?
We all knew that NK have A-bomb.So now they test it.It work.Is anyone expect it wil not work?

Rember Silvester Stalone movie when they build engine for car in prison and they must to start engine only to hear the sound,same thing is with A-bomb,they want to see is it working.That aspiration was stronger than common sense.
http://research.unc.edu/endeavors/spr2006/images/sedanExplosion.jpg

Look powerfull right?
P.S. it is Sedan explosion or :
Project Plowshare and the Unrealized Dream of Nuclear Earthmoving

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 23:29
Ok, what the hell was Kim thinking?


DPRK Test: What About that Radionuclide Data? (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1239/dprk-test-what-about-that-radionuclide-data)
posted by paul under north-korea

NHK and Yonhap have both reported on what Japan and South Korea have found in the atmosphere after the DPRK’s Monday test: bagel.

According to NHK:

Japan’s 47 prefectures say no radioactive substances have been detected at any measuring points in a survey conducted one day after North Korea’s claimed nuclear test.

The prefectures took samples of dust and rain from the air on Tuesday as part of an emergency government monitoring program.

They say the survey shows no trace of radioactive substances peculiar to a nuclear explosion, and that air radiation levels are normal.

Other government checks, including an air survey of radioactive substances from a Self-Defense Forces’ training plane, have also shown no unusual data.

Says Yonhap:

No signs of unusual radiation levels have been detected in South Korea after North Korea said it successfully detonated a nuclear device, the government said Thursday.

The Ministry of Science and Technology said none of the government’s 38 manned and unmanned monitoring centers had picked up any spikes in natural radiation from Monday noon to Thursday morning. The usual levels of radiation in South Korea are 10-20 Micro-Roentgen (mR).

SRB
12 Oct 06,, 23:43
It is propaganda.
It was underground exposion off course you dont expect to detect radiation.
Also it was weak A-bomb device they will not use big one for test.
USA build A-bomb which is equel to 100 Tone TNT.Smallest one only experimental.

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 23:46
ALL NUKES no matter how small gives off radionuclei.

SRB
12 Oct 06,, 23:48
ALL NUKES no matter how small gives off radionuclei.

Nope.
If it is underground.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42178000/gif/_42178607_nuclear_testing416x332.gif
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6033893.stm

Officer of Engineers
12 Oct 06,, 23:50
Even if it's underground. You can't get away from that. Gases leak out. There is simply no way to avoid that. It's called venting.

highsea
12 Oct 06,, 23:53
Yep. There is always some venting.

The test appears to be either a complete flop or a hoax.

I suspect a hoax. Lol, let the sanctions begin...

Officer of Engineers
13 Oct 06,, 00:00
Did Kim actually think we won't find out? I just don't get it. And as Dr Jeffery asked, "why simulate a dud?"

SRB
13 Oct 06,, 00:06
Do we know wind direction?
If it was to Russia and China than this is key of puzzle.
If it blow to S.Korea or Japan than NK didnt test nuke.
Russia pick some raditation(very small).

Officer of Engineers
13 Oct 06,, 00:13
Japan and South Korea would be the 1st indicators.

SRB
13 Oct 06,, 00:15
I think that Kim would be very good poker player.
If China dont give NK food he will send couple million people in China as refugees.
With A-bombs he dont need large army,food is major cost of stationar army.
Also he will have elecricity for nuke plants, and more plutonium for stock pile.

Possible result of sanctions:
China feed NK, NK have much smaller army, people get more food,people of NK became fat.

Bread and ideology.Sound familiar?

troung
13 Oct 06,, 00:56
wow, are you trying to tie essay for most ridiculous exaggeration on this thread?

Essay has nothing on the Commando...

The agruement here makes me think of the barbarians and the later Roman Empire…

Edgeplay_cgo
13 Oct 06,, 01:04
Also, if North Koreans immigrate into China. China will cease to exist. The North Korean soldiers are taught Kim Jong Ill is there father and divine. If there country gets attacked, with Chinese involvement. They will use terrorist methods in retaliation to China once they have entered the country. China can't defend itself against this.

<LOL>

Don't underestimate China. All of NORK can in no way endagner China, guerrilla warfare or not. There's a lot of Chinamen, and not all that many NORKs. The NORKs are fanatics, but they're not supermen. They die just like anyone else, and China has a lot more military sophistication than NORK can muster. They'll use it. Don't forget China's ruthlessness. They'll kill twenty million and not miss breakfast. (only exaggerating a little.)

canoe
13 Oct 06,, 03:41
Yep. There is always some venting.

The test appears to be either a complete flop or a hoax.

I suspect a hoax. Lol, let the sanctions begin...

Raises an interesting question. If he wanted to fake a nuclear test why didn't he just vent some nuclear material. NK does supposidly have some nuclear material I don't see why they couldn't pack it in a box on the surface with some HE and demo it.

It maybe possible to determine the nuclear material was not the by-product of a successful nuclear explosion. But I'd assume it would be pretty damn hard to determine if it was from a failed attempt or a faked attempt.

To be honest I simply have no idea with this guy if hes bluffing or not, his patterns of behavior are too irratic to predict what hes doing.

Bill
13 Oct 06,, 07:46
<LOL>

Don't underestimate China. All of NORK can in no way endagner China, guerrilla warfare or not. There's a lot of Chinamen, and not all that many NORKs. The NORKs are fanatics, but they're not supermen. They die just like anyone else, and China has a lot more military sophistication than NORK can muster. They'll use it. Don't forget China's ruthlessness. They'll kill twenty million and not miss breakfast. (only exaggerating a little.)
Agreed.

When the PRC was done with them, the NORKS would look like a bloody tampon.

LOL...

HKDan
13 Oct 06,, 10:23
<LOL>

Don't underestimate China. All of NORK can in no way endagner China, guerrilla warfare or not. There's a lot of Chinamen, and not all that many NORKs. The NORKs are fanatics, but they're not supermen. They die just like anyone else, and China has a lot more military sophistication than NORK can muster. They'll use it. Don't forget China's ruthlessness. They'll kill twenty million and not miss breakfast. (only exaggerating a little.)


I dont think you are exaggerating at all. If the NKs were stupid enough to do something to China the response would be frightening...and the Chinese public would be behind it 100%

Ironduke
13 Oct 06,, 12:10
Deal closer on N Korea sanctions

World powers are edging closer to agreeing sanctions against North Korea following its claimed nuclear test.

The US has revised a draft UN Security Council resolution to remove the threat of imminent military action in a bid to allay Chinese and Russian concerns.

In Beijing, the Chinese and South Korean leaders agreed the UN must take "necessary and appropriate" action. A UN vote is expected on Saturday.

Japan's cabinet has confirmed it is imposing unilateral sanctions.

The Japanese measures, first announced on Wednesday, include trade and travel bans, barring North Korean ships from Japan's ports, and freezing imports and visits by North Korean officials.

Pyongyang has promised "strong countermeasures" against any sanctions.

North Korean vessels deliver crabs, clams or prized matsutake mushrooms to Japan, then return home filled with used bicycles, used cars, motorcycles or old household appliances - items which can be sold in the impoverished North.

North Korean ships are currently loading up in Japanese ports ahead of a Friday midnight (1500 GMT) deadline.

Resolution takes shape

The new US draft resolution restricts sanctions to non-military actions, limits arms sanctions to heavy weapons only, but retains a controversial provision allowing nations to inspect cargo moving in and out of North Korea in pursuit of unconventional weapons.

The resolution urges North Korea to implement a September 2005 agreement in which it pledged to give up its nuclear programme in exchange for aid and security guarantees.

Diplomats at the UN hope to produce a final text later in the day, which can then be put to a vote on Saturday.

"We have made very substantial progress," US envoy John Bolton said after meeting with the other four veto-holding UN Security Council members - Russia, China, Britain and France.

"I don't want to say we've reached agreement yet, but many, many of the significant differences have been closed, very much to our satisfaction," he said.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is reported to be planning to tour China, Japan and South Korea next week in an attempt to galvanise support for a strong stance against Pyongyang.

Diplomatic push

South Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun has held talks in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, on how to respond to North Korea's claimed test.

A top South Korean official said the two men did not discuss the details of the draft resolution but agreed in general principle to support UN action.

"The two leaders agreed to support appropriate and necessary counter-measures by the UN Security Council against North Korea," Song Min-soon, Mr Roh's National Security Adviser, said.

Mr Roh is facing increasing pressure at home to reverse his so-called "sunshine policy" of engagement with the South's Communist neighbour.

As many as 3,000 protesters gathered outside the city hall in Seoul to demand the government cut off aid and investment to North Korea.

Monday's announcement by North Korea that it had carried out a successful test of a nuclear weapon has sent political shock waves around the region.

But there has been some speculation that the test was unsuccessful, based on the relatively small size of the blast.

Both South Korean and Chinese scientists said on Friday they had detected no evidence of radioactivity in air, soil and rainwater tests.

But Yoo Bong-jin, an official with South Korea's ministry of science and technology, warned that the findings were not proof that a nuclear test had failed.

Meanwhile, South Korea's defence minister Yoon Kwan-ung has said the government believes North Korea is working to weaponise its nuclear bombs but needs a "few more years" before it is successful.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6046550.stm

Officer of Engineers
13 Oct 06,, 13:44
It's a hoax!

From Bill Gertz, Washington Times

Nuclear volleyball
Intelligence photographs of North Korea's nuclear test site showed technicians playing volleyball this week near the tunnel where a nuclear device was unsuccessfully set off on Sunday.
The facility where the test took place was identified by U.S. officials as a North Korean science and technology research center near the town of Kilchu and the northeastern coast.
Very high-resolution satellite images obtained by the Defense Intelligence Agency showed the volleyball game being played near dormitories at the facility.
The Japanese intelligence agency also had access to the photographs, and according to U.S. defense officials, they reported that a sports activity so close to a nuclear site was inconsistent with post-nuclear testing precautions, since the underground tunnel where the test took place was located several hundred yards away.

kams
13 Oct 06,, 14:32
It's a hoax!

From Bill Gertz, Washington Times

Nuclear volleyball
Intelligence photographs of North Korea's nuclear test site showed technicians playing volleyball this week near the tunnel where a nuclear device was unsuccessfully set off on Sunday.
The facility where the test took place was identified by U.S. officials as a North Korean science and technology research center near the town of Kilchu and the northeastern coast.
Very high-resolution satellite images obtained by the Defense Intelligence Agency showed the volleyball game being played near dormitories at the facility.
The Japanese intelligence agency also had access to the photographs, and according to U.S. defense officials, they reported that a sports activity so close to a nuclear site was inconsistent with post-nuclear testing precautions, since the underground tunnel where the test took place was located several hundred yards away.

LOL thats what we speculated 3-4 days back, so now we have the answer. Kim is bloody nutcase.

HistoricalDavid
13 Oct 06,, 17:05
According to an article in a Tube newspaper, 65% of South Koreans polled want their own nuclear programme. Should they insist on it, it might be time to bring back the nuclear artillery of the Cold War for minimum ordnance delivery time.

If my understanding of the situation is correct - and I'm sure OoE will correct this - once a war kicks off, the compactness of the battlefield and the density of troops and material there makes efficient, fast action/retaliation doubly important.

BenRoethig
13 Oct 06,, 17:57
When are people going to learn appeasement always makes the world less safe and secure and more prone to big wars? In all likelihood both S. Koea and Japan will have nuclear arsenals of their own. That will in turn make North Korea, China, and Russia more uneasy.

astralis
13 Oct 06,, 18:14
benroethig,


When are people going to learn appeasement always makes the world less safe and secure and more prone to big wars? In all likelihood both S. Koea and Japan will have nuclear arsenals of their own. That will in turn make North Korea, China, and Russia more uneasy.

i doubt that; the US will be pulling on both of them not to build the nukes.

in any case, there must be a distinction made between appeasement and negotiation. a realist disdains the former as a tool of last-resort, used by a weaker power to a stronger power; the latter is a valuable tool that can be leveraged to clear benefits later.

not all negotiation is appeasement.

Canmoore
13 Oct 06,, 21:47
It's a hoax!

From Bill Gertz, Washington Times

Nuclear volleyball
Intelligence photographs of North Korea's nuclear test site showed technicians playing volleyball this week near the tunnel where a nuclear device was unsuccessfully set off on Sunday.
The facility where the test took place was identified by U.S. officials as a North Korean science and technology research center near the town of Kilchu and the northeastern coast.
Very high-resolution satellite images obtained by the Defense Intelligence Agency showed the volleyball game being played near dormitories at the facility.
The Japanese intelligence agency also had access to the photographs, and according to U.S. defense officials, they reported that a sports activity so close to a nuclear site was inconsistent with post-nuclear testing precautions, since the underground tunnel where the test took place was located several hundred yards away.


well if it was NK's first test..perhaps they dont know about proper post-nuclear testing precautions..

So far there has been no radiation found (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/13/nkorea.test.sample/index.html)....although this is not the smoking gun for a hoax, it could mean that the test was a failure, or the test was small enough and deep enough that they successfully sealed it off.

SRB
13 Oct 06,, 23:40
I dont belive everything what newspaper write.
It is Washington Times for god sakes.If we rember what they write during Bosian war, you would think that Serbs kill half of million muslims.(Real body count was 100.000 all three sides)
If it is some science paper I would think twice but classic newspaper come on.
Off course Japs will say that NK test is falure to calm down their own people.
Same thing with SK.
I just want to know what was weather prognose for that test day.If someone came put map of temp on that day for Korea,or better wind direction on that day we could find out could Japs and SK detect fallout or not.
What if wind blow to China.
P.S. Russian raditation team detect fallout(very very small)

Officer of Engineers
14 Oct 06,, 00:51
Bill Gertz's interruptations are way off the mark but the raw intel cannot be faulted.

Parihaka
14 Oct 06,, 01:19
I dont belive everything what newspaper write.
It is Washington Times for god sakes.If we rember what they write during Bosian war, you would think that Serbs kill half of million muslims.(Real body count was 100.000 all three sides)
If it is some science paper I would think twice but classic newspaper come on.
Off course Japs will say that NK test is falure to calm down their own people.
Same thing with SK.
I just want to know what was weather prognose for that test day.If someone came put map of temp on that day for Korea,or better wind direction on that day we could find out could Japs and SK detect fallout or not.
What if wind blow to China.
P.S. Russian raditation team detect fallout(very very small)

Not to dismiss the rest of it but how the hell could the Russians detect very very small fallout, their background levels are intense.

gps glonass
14 Oct 06,, 11:11
It's a hoax!




Do you smoke radioactive natcotics ?

U.S.: Test Points to N. Korea Nuke Blast
http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2006/10/14/ap/headlines/d8ko6akg0.txt
An air sampling taken after North Korea's claimed nuclear test detected radioactive debris consistent with an atomic explosion

SRB
14 Oct 06,, 12:58
Not to dismiss the rest of it but how the hell could the Russians detect very very small fallout, their background levels are intense.
It is radiation in air, not on ground.Last Soviet test was before collapase of USSR.So today you dont have radiation in air,but you have it on ground.
As I know Russian Far East is to far for nuclear test points of USSR,so there is level of gorund radiation much smaller and fallout form Chernobil was directed to West not to East.So if you use ballon detector you will for sure detect something form NK test.
I am very sure that Far EAst wasnt infect with large dosse of radiation for Soviet era.

Officer of Engineers
14 Oct 06,, 17:02
Do you smoke radioactive natcotics ?

Jump off a bridge.


U.S.: Test Points to N. Korea Nuke Blast
http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2006/10/14/ap/headlines/d8ko6akg0.txt
An air sampling taken after North Korea's claimed nuclear test detected radioactive debris consistent with an atomic explosion

And read on, there is still no conclusion that it was a nuke test. Thus far, only the US is claiming a sample. The Chinese, Japanese, South Koreans are stating otherwise.

Major_Armstrong
14 Oct 06,, 18:07
http://home.ripway.com/2004-2/71090/pics/morin.gif

YellowFever
14 Oct 06,, 22:51
So much for the "Sunshine Policy".

I talked to some friends in my native country and they seem more upset about the posibility that Japan will now acquire nukes rather than DPKR actually having them.

If Japan goes this route, all bets are off.

There will definitely be a nuke arms race in Asia.

Pull th GIs out of ROK.

Seems like my native country is more interested in bad mouthing Americans all the while enjoying their protection.

It's about time they get off their asses and do something about their problems.

Ironduke
15 Oct 06,, 08:44
Asian states hail sanctions vote

Japan and South Korea have welcomed the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council on the North after its claimed nuclear test on Monday.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan said the world had sent North Korea a strong message that its possession of nuclear weapons would not be tolerated.

He added that Tokyo was considering further sanctions of its own.

But Russia says that North Korea wants six-nation talks on ending its nuclear weapons programme to go on.

"The North Korean side repeatedly insisted that the six-sided process should continue, that it is not rejecting six-sided negotiations," Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Alexeyev as saying after talks with his North Korean counterpart Kim Ky-kwan in Pyongyang.

'Swift and tough'

The Security Council on Saturday approved unanimously Resolution 1718 which imposes weapons and financial sanctions but is not backed by the threat of military force.

North Korea's UN envoy walked out in response while the two Council members closest to it made guarded comments.

China said it had "reservations" about provisions for cargo checks on North Korean ships and Russia said the sanctions should not be viewed as indefinite.

US President George W Bush said the UN had taken a "swift and tough" step to show its determination to keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.

And the incoming UN Secretary General, South Korea's Ban Ki-moon, has told the BBC that he is prepared to travel to Pyongyang if necessary to defuse the crisis.

Shipping dilemma

The South Korean foreign ministry said it would honour the new sanctions and urged the North to return to the six-nation talks.

Japan's prime minister said he was "already studying [additional measures]".

His government unilaterally imposed some sanctions on Wednesday, banning all North Korean imports and stopping its ships entering Japanese waters.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso predicted that it would up to two weeks for the US to draft a plan for checking North Korean shipping.

China and Russia have been concerned that the cargo inspections permitted in the resolution could spark naval confrontations with North Korean boats.

The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says that Beijing's chief concern is still the stability of North Korea and it also does not want to open the way to anything that might look like a naval blockade of the country.

Famine signals

Aid organisation say they are concerned that the sanctions will hurt still further a country barely able to feed itself.

"It is a very fragile country and there is a lot of hardship and we are trying to take care of the people," Jaap Timmer, head of the Red Cross's Pyongyang delegation, told AFP news agency.

"Humanitarian aid should not be dependent on political decisions and so we are hoping that from a moral point of view, any pressure on the government will not impact on ordinary people."

Erica Kang of the South Korean humanitarian group Good Friends said that there were worrying signs of hunger reminiscent of the 1990s famines.

"There are more people eating alternative foods, having to forage rather than having grain for their main meal... winter is coming shortly and we are very concerned about that," she said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6052320.stm

Time to remove the NK leadership and have a six-party 15 year occupation of the country, then hand it over to South Korea.

Officer of Engineers
15 Oct 06,, 19:58
The fact this is going on in open Chinese media is onimous




China may back coup against Kim (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20587473-2703,00.html)
Michael Sheridan, Beijing
October 16, 2006
THE Chinese are openly debating "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.
Diplomats in Beijing said at the weekend that China and all the major US allies believed North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte circulated a report that radiation had been detected at a site not far from the Chinese border.

The US may have employed highly classified satellite technology to detect tiny leaks of gas or elements associated with nuclear detonation, according to a diplomatic source in the Chinese capital. This would explain Washington's reluctance to explain the findings in public.

The Washington Times disclosed that US spy satellites photographed North Koreans playing volleyball just a few hundred metres from a test site tunnel after the underground explosion.

The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"

Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.

In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

There are rumours that Kim's eldest son, Jong-nam, is estranged from his father and living in the Chinese capital, where he enjoys a reputation as a capricious imbiber of whisky. A younger son, Jong-chol, has emerged as heir apparent.

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.

The Sunday Times

Bill
15 Oct 06,, 23:20
So much for the "Sunshine Policy".

I talked to some friends in my native country and they seem more upset about the posibility that Japan will now acquire nukes rather than DPKR actually having them.

If Japan goes this route, all bets are off.

There will definitely be a nuke arms race in Asia.

Pull th GIs out of ROK.

Seems like my native country is more interested in bad mouthing Americans all the while enjoying their protection.

It's about time they get off their asses and do something about their problems.
Agreed.

Edgeplay_cgo
16 Oct 06,, 02:00
The fact this is going on in open Chinese media is onimous

Sounds like they're running the idea up the flagpole for everyone to see.

Let's salute it.

YellowFever
17 Oct 06,, 07:50
Time to remove the NK leadership and have a six-party 15 year occupation of the country, then hand it over to South Korea.


The question is:
Will the six parties have the will to occupy and pour money into a country of 20+ million basically brainwashed people with no skill to speak of and stick with it until they join the 21th century?

I highly doubt it.

Especially since US, China, SK probably all have different opinions of how NK should be after the 15 years.

gunnut
17 Oct 06,, 08:22
What if...Kim is engaging a Saddam style ruse to fool the international community into thinking he has nukes while he really doesn't? What then?

Is it a "slam dunk" that NK has nukes? Are we sure about that? How many intelligence agencies have we talked to?

I'd say we let the French and Democrats take this one. :biggrin:

HKDan
17 Oct 06,, 14:38
OOE,
Do you know of any way that the NKs could have faked that radiation reading? Would a dirty bomb produce one? I dont have a hard time imagining them actually having a nuke, but if I was to find out that it was all faked I wouldnt be surprised at all either(just really amused).
I am a little suspicious of that article that you posted. While the quoted academic has a Chinese name, it was in a Singaporean newspaper his article was in. Not quite the same as a daily rag from the mainland. I have no doubt that China would welcome a coup, but to take action on their own would be a really major step. Sure they would like Kim gone, and he has lost them a lot of face, but he is not much of a threat to China in the near term as long as the status quo remains. I had always thought that the Chinese policy would be to prop him up as long as they could to avoind dealing with the bigger issue of what happens when he is gone. As for the son, I am a lover of whiskey too, how weird would it be to end up in a bar with him the next time I am in Beijing? Realistically out of the question, but it would be kind of cool.

Officer of Engineers
17 Oct 06,, 16:39
The DNI has confirmed it was a nuke. Armscontrolwonk has a summary (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1248/nk-plutonium-test-confirmed) of open source intel on this matter.

As for the news article, I don't think there's anytime soon of a coup but the fact that the Chinese have released previously class protected intel on open media, telling the world the Chinese knows that Kim ain't as stable as he claims to be.

highsea
17 Oct 06,, 23:21
...I'd say we let the French and Democrats take this one. :biggrin:You extra-large renegade, such a provocation will be regarded as a declaration of war!

(I got that from the KCNA random insult generator)

http://www.nk-news.net/extras/insult_generator.php

gunnut
18 Oct 06,, 00:20
:eek:

You bourgeois hooligan, we will thwart your frantic attempts to stifle us!
:biggrin:

smilingassassin
18 Oct 06,, 04:14
The question is:
Will the six parties have the will to occupy and pour money into a country of 20+ million basically brainwashed people with no skill to speak of and stick with it until they join the 21th century?

I highly doubt it.

Especially since US, China, SK probably all have different opinions of how NK should be after the 15 years.

IMHO the Chinease and U.S. should simply listen to SK and NK reformists for their opinions on how things should be run, offer a few tidbits and back them up 100%

smilingassassin
18 Oct 06,, 04:17
:eek:

You bourgeois hooligan, we will thwart your frantic attempts to stifle us!
:biggrin:

You reckless beast!

Officer of Engineers
19 Oct 06,, 03:45
I don't believe in advertised co-incidneces, espeically from a division bordering on North Korea

PLA's motorized division launches war exercise (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2006-10/16/content_708867.htm)
www.chinaview.cn 2006-10-12 23:34:20

JINAN, Oct. 12 (Xinhua) -- A motorized division of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched war exercise under the code name "Queshan-2006" on Thursday, in attempt to test its fighting capabilities under an electromagnetic environment.

It will last until October 18.

The division, under the PLA Jinan Military Area Command, will be transported, via railway and vehicles, to an unnamed training ground of the Army.

Over 70 military experts and some cadets from military academies and the training site have formed a team to direct the exercise and evaluate its results. Enditem

Editor: Luan Shanglin

HKDan
19 Oct 06,, 05:37
A message is definitely being sent there.

The question is, will it be received?

tomexe
19 Oct 06,, 07:45
I don't believe in advertised co-incidneces, espeically from a division bordering on North Korea

PLA's motorized division launches war exercise (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2006-10/16/content_708867.htm)
www.chinaview.cn 2006-10-12 23:34:20

JINAN, Oct. 12 (Xinhua) -- A motorized division of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched war exercise under the code name "Queshan-2006" on Thursday, in attempt to test its fighting capabilities under an electromagnetic environment.

It will last until October 18.

The division, under the PLA Jinan Military Area Command, will be transported, via railway and vehicles, to an unnamed training ground of the Army.

Over 70 military experts and some cadets from military academies and the training site have formed a team to direct the exercise and evaluate its results. Enditem

Editor: Luan Shanglin
Question. Has China improved enough since 1979 to invade another country conventionally? How strong is the NKPRs Yalu River defenses? Anything like the DMZ ones? I would think it unlikely considering the greater length, but I am not familiar with them.

How much force would China have to move from the coast opposite Taiwan to do this? Are their logistics good enough to do this?

Officer of Engineers
19 Oct 06,, 14:43
Question. Has China improved enough since 1979 to invade another country conventionally?

Dramatically! You should've at least used the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War as the basis for your comments.


How strong is the NKPRs Yalu River defenses? Anything like the DMZ ones? I would think it unlikely considering the greater length, but I am not familiar with them.

There are two NK corps more for internal security than facing outside hostile forces in that area but no prepared defences. However, alot of natural barriers in mountains and rivers.


How much force would China have to move from the coast opposite Taiwan to do this? Are their logistics good enough to do this?

They don't need to move anything. The 38 and 39 Group Armies are tasked with the Korean penisula.

essay
19 Oct 06,, 16:02
It,s possible to crash any unstable domestic elements for 38 and 39 group armies.It,s very hard to imagine that an army of destitute experience can match an experienced american army who fight constantly through Korea war to second Iraq war for half a century!In fact,Chinese army hasn,t involve any war since 1979-1989 Sino-viet border war.

Dramatically! You should've at least used the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War as the basis for your comments.



There are two NK corps more for internal security than facing outside hostile forces in that area but no prepared defences. However, alot of natural barriers in mountains and rivers.



They don't need to move anything. The 38 and 39 Group Armies are tasked with the Korean penisula.

Officer of Engineers
19 Oct 06,, 16:44
In this case, it would be the PLA against the North Koreans and the North Koreans are further behind in operational experience and training. From news reports, the PLA had wargamed out an invasion but found it to be unworkable when the North Korean armies move north from the DMZ.

HKDan
20 Oct 06,, 00:35
Am I correct in thinking also that the 38 and 39 group armies represent the most modernized PLA units? I seem to remember being surprised a while back at discovering that the PLA's best troops were in the north and not down around Fujian. Then again, heavy armored units probably wouldnt be the most suitable for an invasion of Taiwan so it does make sense.

Officer of Engineers
20 Oct 06,, 00:38
They are the showcase armies.

bonehead
20 Oct 06,, 01:21
Is there any chance all this politicing and a war exercise are nothing more than a song and dance for a chinese invasion of South Korea? Say while the U.S. is already involved in the middle east and may add Iran to the activities.

astralis
20 Oct 06,, 03:16
bonehead,


Is there any chance all this politicing and a war exercise are nothing more than a song and dance for a chinese invasion of South Korea? Say while the U.S. is already involved in the middle east and may add Iran to the activities.

a chinese invasion of SOUTH korea? in case you forgot, SK is under a certain nation's nuclear umbrella.

astralis
20 Oct 06,, 15:35
hahahahaha, looks like someone was sent to his room with no supper (or gas).

---

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15341349/

Report: Kim sorry about N. Korea nuclear test
He is said to tell China that six-party talks could restart under conditions


NBC, MSNBC and news services
Updated: 2 hours, 12 minutes ago

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korean leader Kim Jong Il expressed regret about his country’s nuclear test to a Chinese delegation and said Pyongyang would return to international nuclear talks if Washington backs off a campaign to financially isolate the country, South Korean media reported Friday.

“If the U.S. makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or six-party talks,” Kim was quoted as telling a Chinese envoy, the mass-circulation Chosun Ilbo reported, citing a diplomatic source in China.

Kim told the Chinese delegation that “he is sorry about the nuclear test,” the newspaper reported.

Kim also said that “we have no plans for additional nuclear tests,” the Yonhap news agency reported, citing an unnamed diplomatic source in Beijing.

China: Visit not in vain
The delegation led by State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan met Kim on Thursday and returned to Beijing later that day — ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s arrival in the Chinese capital Friday. China is viewed as a key nation in efforts to persuade the North to disarm, as it is the isolated communist nation’s main trading partner.

Meeting with Rice in Beijing on Friday, Tang said that his trip had “not been in vain.”

Rice said on Friday that the United States would be willing to return to six-party talks, but that financial restrictions on Pyongyang would remain.

“The Chinese are emphasizing the need for six-party talks to begin again and for the North to re-engage in the talks,” Rice told reporters in Beijing. “They (North Korea) urged us to be open to returning to those talks without preconditions, which for us is not difficult,” she said after talks with Tang.

But Rice did not hear of any concrete assurances or any kind of apology from North Korean during the talks with Tang, or even specifics on how North Korea might be drawn back into the six-party talks, sources at the meeting told NBC foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell. The talks were described not as a breakthrough but as possibly the start of a long diplomatic track.

The North has refused since last November to return to the nuclear talks, which also include China, Japan, Russia and South Korea. Pyongyang has sought bolster its negotiating position by a series of provocative actions, test-firing a barrage of missiles in July and performing its first-ever nuclear test Oct. 9.

North Korea has long insisted that the United States desist from a campaign to sever its ties to the international financial system. Washington accuses Pyongyang of complicity in counterfeiting and money laundering to sell weapons of mass destruction.

Beijing stops financial transfers
China is believed to be North Korea’s main link to the world financial system. China’s importance increased after Washington imposed sanctions on a Macau bank that served North Korean companies, making other financial institutions uneasy about dealing with Pyongyang.

But China itself has also imposed financial restrictions. Chinese banks this week stopped financial transfers to North Korea under government orders as part of sanctions imposed for Pyongyang’s nuclear test, bank employees said Friday, in a possibly serious blow to the country’s frail economy.

The policy is a break with China’s earlier reluctance to use economic pressure against the North for fear its ally’s government might collapse.

All four major Chinese state-owned banks and British-owned HSBC Corp. have stopped financial transfers to the North, according to bank employees in Beijing and the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell, the Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Parihaka
21 Oct 06,, 01:00
So, he gets to explode a nuclear weapon (albiet a not very impressive one) and he'll agree to continue the six party talks which haven't done a damn thing to stop him so far IF the rest of the world agrees not to impliment the UN backed sanctions against him?
Somehow, I don't think this turkey will fly, although it will give China the excuse to continue passing through enough materials to prevent a collapse, which is what this is all about anyway.

tomexe
21 Oct 06,, 17:29
I didn't mention a 1984 Sino-Vietnamese war for the simple reason that I had never heard of it.

Wikipieda's entry on the Third Indochina War only mentions a "significant skirmish" in April of 1984 notable primarily for the first combat outing of the Type 81 rifle.

I had a vague notion of continuing skirmishes through the 1980s, just like the vague reports of Russian/Chinese border fighting. I never looked more closely for the simple reason that if reported at all it was just dismissed as meaningless squabbles.

Sorry.

Officer of Engineers
21 Oct 06,, 17:52
No need to be sorry. No one can know everything, especially when it's not your field of study.

The 2nd Sino-Vn War obviously was not on par with the 1st one in either committement or OPOBJ. They were fighting for some hills instead of provincial capitals. However, it was still a corps level committement (30,000+) with a divisional level response from the Vietnamese.

The Chinese did much better the 2nd time around, with better uses of SOF, and especially artillery in clearly identifying and engaging lethal kill zones when a Vietnamese Regiment came too close.

astralis
22 Oct 06,, 17:23
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15365945/site/newsweek/from/RS.1/

China's Reaction: Tightening the Screws
Would Beijing dump Kim? It's certainly not likely, but ...

By Melinda Liu
Newsweek International

Oct. 30, 2006 issue - Once upon a time Beijing officials and scholars would have scoffed at the idea of effecting Chinese-style regime change in Pyongyang. But in the wake of Kim's nuke test, an unprecedented debate has broken out over Beijing's North Korea policies. Last Friday four major Chinese banks stopped making financial transfers to North Korea—a tactic that could quickly pinch a weak economy that relies on China as a link to the international financial system. And this year China has reduced food exports to Pyongyang by two thirds. "I've never seen the Chinese leadership so resolved to be tougher towards North Korea," says Zhu Feng, head of Peking University's international-security program.

Among some close advisers to the government, the idea of a Beijing-friendly palace coup has gained new currency. China certainly has the means: it provides 11,000 barrels of oil to North Korea every day, accounting for more than 70 percent of Pyongyang's total energy supply. Beijing stopped oil deliveries for three days in early 2003 to pressure Pyongyang to join the Six-Party Talks. (Later Chinese apparatchiks insisted there had been a mechanical malfunction.) Chinese authorities insist they want Kim to return to the talks again, but some scholars, furious at Kim's recalcitrance, are calling on their government to pull the oil plug instead. "Chinese diplomacy has been a failure," says Prof. Zhang Liangui, a foreign-policy analyst at the influential Central Party School. "To not stop oil [deliveries] would be baffling from a moral point of view."

According to a former U.S. Pentagon official and Korea watcher, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, the likely pool of moderate North Koreans who could succeed Kim includes Sinophile military officers and technocrats who have come to believe that Chinese-style economic reforms will help transform North Korea. The presence in China of high-level defectors, including military officers, has sparked rumors of a Beijing supported "Chrysanthemum group" who could be the backbone of a new regime, the source says, though "the Chinese never talk about it." South Korean experts on the North recall similar, albeit "theoretical" talk of a Chinese shadow cabinet in 2003-2004.

A successful coup, while farfetched, would ease Beijing's fears of anarchy and a flood of refugees on its border. But the crucial question is how the interests of China diverge from the United States' and South Korea's when it comes to post-Kim scenarios. Beijing would prefer to maintain a friendly, ideally socialist, buffer state on its periphery, which could keep U.S. soldiers based in South Korea at arm's length. Seoul isn't seeking instant reunification with the North, either—too expensive—but South Korean strategists may want to move troops into the North to prevent its being absorbed by China. Replacing Kim might not be any easier than dealing with him now.

With B. J. Lee in Seoul and Jonathan Ansfield in Beijing
© 2006 Newsweek, Inc.

fly3fly
06 Nov 06,, 00:42
say no to North Korea

Commando
13 Dec 06,, 14:46
North Korea has been quiet for a while.. Whats the reason to this?

Kansas Bear
13 Dec 06,, 17:15
North Korea has been quiet for a while.. Whats the reason to this?



KJI is presumably a big NBA fan. Maybe he's busy hooking up his DirecTV dish.

Officer of Engineers
13 Dec 06,, 18:00
There's a Chinese build up in that area. The 39GA has moved to the Shenyang Military Region for an exercise.

zraver
13 Dec 06,, 20:58
39th is one of their two big catagory A formations isn't it.

Officer of Engineers
14 Dec 06,, 18:57
It's one of two heavy combat formations (1 arm'd div, 3 mech inf div). I would not call it CAT A anymore. That term is obsolete. CAT usually refers to divisional instead of corps strength. CAT A being full wartime strength, CAT B being 50% strength, and CAT C 25% strength.

The term that is now used is Rapid Reaction Force and Regular units. Those units, which includes brigades, tasked as RRF is kept at full strength. However, the ability to task a regt within a div or a brigade as RRF means that those previous CAT C formations would be the 1st to go.

That being said, yeah, the 39GA was brought up to full strength for the purpose of deployment.

zraver
14 Dec 06,, 22:02
thanks

Officer of Engineers
15 Dec 06,, 01:08
Now, that I think about it, strange that the PLA only have two heavy armies and not even tank armies at that. They're still an artillery heavy force.

zraver
15 Dec 06,, 03:01
They only realy need tanks in the west. Thier mostl ikely points of conflcit Korea, India, and Taiwan will all be primarily infantry/artillery fights with tanks in a supporting role.

Officer of Engineers
15 Dec 06,, 05:29
Really? Then, the question is point to you (and I'm not trying to be a smart ass but trying to figure out your reasonning), why are you so adament about the ARJUN when the Chinese is not for the same theatre?

zraver
15 Dec 06,, 06:34
because Pak is now inducting the AK II, it looks likea pre-production ZTZ-99. It has a level of protection that completely outclasses the T-90S. The Arjun also gives the InA a anti-armor leathaility vs T-series tansk Pakistan cannot match (unless they licence build Abrams).

Also the Type 96 is considered slow by almsot all modern standards (35mph road). Implying a support role rahter than a manuver concept. As this has been tagged as the mainforce tank for the PLA (ZTZ 99 is "terrain" restricted") I am guessing at a more set peace philospy which fits with Korea, Indian border, and the borders with the stans

Archer
08 Jan 07,, 01:24
because Pak is now inducting the AK II, it looks likea pre-production ZTZ-99. It has a level of protection that completely outclasses the T-90S.

Sorry Zraver, thats completely wrong. The AK-I/II are both inferior to the T90S, rather M, that India has, both in terms of firepower and armour. The ZTZ-99 may be equivalent, but who knows its protection levels.

MarquezRazor
08 Jan 07,, 21:06
They only realy need tanks in the west. Thier mostl ikely points of conflcit Korea, India, and Taiwan will all be primarily infantry/artillery fights with tanks in a supporting role.

The history doesnt say so Zrave.

Some of the largest tank battles after WWII were fought in 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak wars.

xinhui
29 May 07,, 18:02
not sure it is a good idea to continue this thread, but back to topic.

I recently noted ShangYang MR started to receive new equipments and additional trainings. During much of the late 1990s there only one large scale (corp/div) conducted by SY MR where as corp. size ex are yearly rituals for costal MRs (GZ, NJ, Beijing, JN) for certain reasons. My guess this is largely due to DPRK.

However, no formations of SY MR is being coverted into wheeled based light mech infantry unit, all new equippments are heavy tracked based.