PDA

View Full Version : CIA predicts Russian collapse within next ten years



Lunatock
01 May 04,, 03:41
CIA angers Russia by predicting break-up of state within 10 years
By Andrew Osborn in Moscow
30 April 2004
Russia's political elite has been stung by a recently declassified CIA report that suggests the world's largest country could fall apart at the seams in a decade and split into as many as eight different states.

The report, Global Trends 2015, has sparked a lively debate in Russia about the country's territorial integrity and triggered passionate denunciations from some of Russia's leading politicians. Its unflinchingly bleak assessment of Russia's prospects has angered many at a time when the Russian government is doing its best to talk up the economy.

The fact that the gloomy prognosis comes from its old Cold War enemy makes it all the harder for Russia to swallow. But many ordinary Russians seem to share the CIA's pessimism.

An opinion poll conducted by radio station Ekho Moskvy earlier this week revealed that 71 per cent of those surveyed (3,380 people) thought that the disintegration of the motherland was a "real threat".

Yesterday's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper printed a map for its readers showing how Russia might look by 2015 if the CIA is right. It showed Siberia broken up into four different countries, with western Russia similarly partitioned.

It is not for nothing that president Vladimir Putin's party is called United Russia. According to the CIA, some of Russia's eastern regions are so rich in natural resources such as oil and gas that they will opt to break away from Moscow, which they have long accused of poor governance.

Komsomolskaya Pravda was dismissive of the report. "Either the CIA has super perspicacious analysts who can see what mortal Russians, including politicians and political scientists, cannot, or someone has got it wrong," it said.

Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the Russian parliament, said: "I completely reject the possibility of Russia breaking up.

"Over the past four years, a lot has been done to strengthen vertical power and legislation in the constituent parts of the Russian Federation was brought into line with the constitution a long time ago."

According to the CIA report, a falling birth rate meant that the country's population was likely to decline to 130 million by 2015 from 146 million today. It also painted a picture of Russia as a terminally ill patient.

"The Soviet economic inheritance will continue to plague Russia," the report said. "Besides a crumbling physical infrastructure, years of environmental neglect are taking a toll on the population, a toll made worse by such societal costs of transition as alcoholism, cardiac diseases, drugs and a worsening health delivery system. Russia's population is not only getting smaller, but it is becoming less and less healthy and less able to serve as an engine of economic recover."

Dmitry Orlov, the director of Russia's political and economic communications agency, claimed the CIA had an ulterior motive. "The conservative wing of the American Republican party is interested in the maximum weakening of Russia's position and maybe even in its fragmentation," Mr Orlov told the Izvestia newspaper

http://news.independent.co.uk/low_res/story.jsp?story=516649&host=3&dir=73

ChrisF202
01 May 04,, 13:58
I think this is a bit far fetched, Russia is to powerful to go anywhere. I thaught its economy has gotten better since 1991? If tyhis is true, we better secure those Russian nukes.

s_qwert63
01 May 04,, 14:42
If tyhis is true, we better secure those Russian nukes.

Watched too many Hollywood action movies.
How can America possibly secure Russian Nuclear Weapons?

Confed999
01 May 04,, 14:51
How can America possibly secure Russian Nuclear Weapons?
Easiest way would be to make sure the current Russian government is able to retain control of the weapons, and if that fails, that whoever would take control is not the type to use them. Seems this could be done with political and financial assistance, at this point.

Ironduke
01 May 04,, 16:42
Hmm, I've thought that a new Russia including Belarus and Kazahkstan, and possibly Ukraine, was a strong possibility for the future.

Jay
01 May 04,, 20:31
dont worry about the population, we can take care of that for our friends for life :biggrin:

Ray
02 May 04,, 02:29
And when will the world collapse?

Confed999
02 May 04,, 14:37
And when will the world collapse?
When the good guys stop fighting the bad guys.

Jay
02 May 04,, 19:24
I dont think Russia is gonna collapse in near, far or distant future...same with the world!

roshan
16 Jun 04,, 17:21
Russia is basically in shambles.

An acquaintance of mine used to live and do business in Russia. He left the coutnry because you couldnt do any business without paying off the mafia for protection. The country is completely screwed.

BTW does anyone have the map of the divided Russia? I would very much like to see it.

roshan
16 Jun 04,, 18:40
BTW, if Russia is divided, then wouldnt China be in a good position to gobble up the smaller remnants of Siberia, and also Mongolia and other lowly populated nearby countries?

lurker
16 Jun 04,, 18:45
I wouldn't bet a cent (or ruble ;)) on any "prediction" from those guys.

Where is "predicted" Iraqi people uprising against S.H. "that will start immedieately we enter the coutry?".
Where is "predicted" 9/11?

I could predict as easily that "USA will break-up in 20 years", results will be the same.

p.s. as someone said: "CIA? We don't know anything about those guys, except they screwed up again".

roshan
16 Jun 04,, 19:01
Lurker, I consider the breakup of Russia to be an EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, if not a completely impossible one. Nevertheless, I am still interested in discussing the possible results of a breakup.

lurker
16 Jun 04,, 19:22
Lurker, I consider the breakup of Russia to be an EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, if not a completely impossible one. Nevertheless, I am still interested in discussing the possible results of a breakup.

Well... it's hard to discuss the results, since I view it as completely impossible.

Even now with all the "independence", I bet that 90% of all the businesses in former USSR are owned by russian capital (or by outside (mostly Switzerland/Offshore) companies still owned by russian capital).

Present trends are ... that centalised power is getting stronger not weaker, than it was before Putin. Just look at all this trials against "richest guys in the country".

In my opinion, times when somebody having a huge amount of money would try to create his own little "empire" are ending. And ending fast.

roshan
16 Jun 04,, 19:25
Well, its kind of hard to eblieve that Russia will be able to manage such a large territory with a small and declining population.

lurker
16 Jun 04,, 19:42
Well, its kind of hard to eblieve that Russia will be able to manage such a large territory with a small and declining population.

I think that all that is temporary.

Lesser population means lesser unemployement -> higher salaries -> more stable future for the most of the population -> more children.

Less children also means (in short term) - lesser pressure on teachers -> more intense intense and effective education -> new genereations will be more developed than present (that means that they will have more ways for self-realisation, will do work more effectively etc.).

p.s. Just remember 1920s. Aftert he Civil war and Revolution Russia was laying in complete ruins, and then in 15 years it raised to superpower level.
Of course that was implemented using inhumane methods and huge astrocities... but the same results can be reached in more time and less intencity.

From uphill there is a way only down, from downhill there is a way up.

Alex
16 Jun 04,, 21:15
Well, its kind of hard to eblieve that Russia will be able to manage such a large territory with a small and declining population.


How Russia manages her territory and remains united throughout history cannot be understood rationally. Phenomenon of Russia can't be explained by economy (she was always far from being rich) or politics (there were many weak rulers able to manage their court only).

Tutchev was right perhaps. :)

lurker
16 Jun 04,, 21:25
How Russia manages her territory and remains united throughout history cannot be understood rationally. Phenomenon of Russia can't be explained by economy (she was always far from being rich) or politics (there were many weak rulers able to manage their court only).

Tutchev was right perhaps. :)

I think that part of it lays in the russian character itself. Hardly somebody would love such a cold and windy place, but we still love it. ;)

Most of the people in the world never saw -30 Celsius in the 30m/sec wind. :biggrin:

p.s. Remember those Hitler armies under Moscow? Dying by thousands from the cold? Sheesh... that was far far far warmer than Siberia!

Alex
16 Jun 04,, 22:07
Most of the people in the world never saw -30 Celsius in the 30m/sec wind. :biggrin:


Not every Russian saw it too. My personal record is -15C at 25m/s. Kamchatka isn't Siberia after all. :)

lurker
16 Jun 04,, 22:21
Not every Russian saw it too. My personal record is -15C at 25m/s. Kamchatka isn't Siberia after all. :)
I saw it in Karaganda. It was ... refreshing. ;)

Just couple hundred kilometers from "Siberia", but still not it ;)

p.s. never before or after that I drank so much vodka to warm up. But then it did the trick :biggrin:

RUSKIE
23 Jun 04,, 02:46
OMG i think im gunna faint just readying that report! who ever wrote that report, should be FIRED no lined up on a wall AND SHOT! whew ga-ley thats one anti-russian prick for ya. i would die from the shock of just hearing the russian break up, there are 2 countrys i love the most, Russia and the U.S. of A., man there is no possible way russia will fall not after her colorful history. lol. I dispice the CIA i think it should be disbanded form the U.S. i think i would rely on the Iraqi seceret services rather than the CIA. good god man call an ambulance im gunna faint.

Confed999
23 Jun 04,, 03:08
I'm sure the CIA report is a worst case scenario, there's probably one of these for everywhere. I wouldn't worry, if the people are willing to work hard at it the country will survive. The US has, and will continue to help, I'm sure, but it's all up to the Russian people.

lurker
23 Jun 04,, 16:10
There is a much more better article, from a guy that understands something:



New York Post
February 16, 2004

THE Russian soldier's greatest virtue has always been stubbornness. Time and again, Russia's military was defeated, fair and square - by Charles XII's Swedes, Napoleon's polyglot legions and Hitler's armored barbarians. But the Russians wouldn't surrender.

They always refused to play by Europe's rules, absorbing defeat after defeat - until they won on their own confounding terms.

Today, the Russians are being stubborn again, frustrating Europe's expectations and our own fond wishes. The new czar in the Kremlin is determined to have his country forge its own way. Our well-intentioned concerns don't move him a millimeter as he redesigns the one-party state for the 21st century.

Adding to our frustration, the people of Russia support him overwhelmingly.

They're being stubborn again.

Vladimir Putin's Russia presents those of us who revere democracy with a series of dilemmas. It's the worrisome member of the family of "Western" nations, charming one day, crazy the next - and prone to nasty behavior. It's richer in contradictions than it is in oil and gas.

Next month, Russia will hold national elections. Putin will win. Easily. Even the most grugding polls grant him a popularity rating above 70 percent. Yet, the Kremlin has gone to extravagant lengths to stifle an opposition so feeble it barely registers, smirking as it calls Russia a democracy. Attractive opposition candidates are eliminated - one way or the other. The media has been bullied, bribed and suborned. The people cling, once again, to the notion of a "good czar" who will save them from themselves and the powers of darkness.

Nonetheless, the March elections will mark real progress toward political, economic and social stability. They just won't be elections as we prefer them. Instead, the coming vote will be a referendum on Vladimir Putin. On one hand, the balloting will resemble the old Soviet yes-or-no "elections," since there's no serious choice. On the other, the elections will honestly reflect the feelings of Russia's majority.

At a glance, Russia appears to be in a transition. That may be so, but we just might find ourselves surprised by where the journey takes that vast country. Russia appears to be working out a middle way that suits its conditions and character - not our preferences.

Russia will remain Russia, declining to emulate either the USA or Germany, content to forge a workable combination of Mexico 30 years ago, Mussolini's 1920s Italy and Russia circa 1912. With a teasing hint of globalization for international investors.

Vladimir Putin is an unattractive figure on numerous counts. Yet, in other respects, he's probably the best that either Russia or the West can expect. It's certainly true that he can't seem to escape his KGB background - but it's doubtful that any leader in the Kremlin could do more to overcome the burden of Russia's past.

Russia has long been a land of contradictions layered upon contradictions, whether its schizophrenia had to do with arguments between Westernizers and Slavophiles, or democrats versus nationalists, or the prevalent crudeness and stunning brilliance of which its people are capable.

The contradictions continue. During the last decade's Boris-and-Bill Show, when President Clinton left Russia policy to the most amateurish collection of pseudo-diplomats ever to infect the Department of State, corruption flourished in Russia on a scale beyond a Saudi prince's dreams.

Putin has cracked down hard on corruption. Russia has become a more reliable, physically safer place to do business. The economy is making enviable progress.

Yet, the Kremlin crackdowns on the post-Soviet billionaires and other "criminals" concentrate on those who back opposition political parties or fund a free press. Oligarchs who support the Kremlin remain unscathed by law.

All this is very Russian. It's Peter the Great breaking the will of the boyari, the aristocratic oligarchs of his day. As the emotions of the Cold War settle, the Soviet Union appears to have been less of a break with the long sweep of Russian history than an intensification of it. And post-Soviet Russia is not about to jettison its political DNA. We're looking at remodeling, not reconstruction.

Despite its natural-resource wealth, Russian power has obviously diminished. We might be able to disengage, sign a few oil deals and let things stumble along - were it not for one unavoidable issue: Russia is a vital ally in the War on Terror.

And Russia has done far more than its share to make terrorism worse.

Political theories never survive hard contact with reality. Nor do our noblest ideals often fare better. Human rights should be a fundamental component of our foreign policy. So how do we justify cooperating with Russia, given its horrendous abuses in Chechnya and elsewhere in the Caucasus, its slaughter of its own citizens, the incompetence and lies - all of which have converted countless Muslims to terror?

Morally, we can't justify it. Yet, we cooperate. Because we must. In the real world, that's just how things work sometimes. You go with the less-bad alternative and grit your teeth.

We all may wish it were otherwise. But it's not.

A decade ago, we heard exuberant predictions of a new age of Russian glory waiting just around the corner. Next, we heard predictions of Russian doom, based upon demographics, economics, corruption and the dwindling number of birch trees.

The truth lies in between. Russia is moving forward, but at its own pace and in its own way. An angel won't replace Putin in the Kremlin. But Putin isn't entirely a devil. The glass is dirty, but it's nearly three-quarters full.

What do we make of a country that drinks itself to death, yet idolizes a national leader who refuses to raise a shot-glass to his lips? A country whose artistic achievements rival those of any culture on earth, but which has a phenomenal tolerance for human misery? A country whose stunningly rich elite reprises the excesses abroad of its 19th-century aristocracy, but whose common people, the chorni narod, have a shrinking life expectancy?

We make it our ally, do what we can to influence it and swallow hard.

Ralph Peters served as an Army officer specializing in Russia and its borderlands.

Static Caster
09 Sep 04,, 13:10
Lesser population means lesser unemployement -> higher salaries -> more stable future for the most of the population -> more children.


I strongly disagree with that statement. I think that a declining population means a higher economic burden on younger Russians in order to financially support elderly people. A declining population is RARELY a good thing.

Ray
10 Sep 04,, 21:24
Russians will never collapse. At best, they will reinvent themselves as they have done after the collapse of USSR.

ajaybhutani
26 Sep 04,, 13:44
Lets look at these points:

1. Wasnt it the same CIA that said "THERE ARE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ"
2. Russian territory is the richest in natural resources.Its full of them .This is probably the reason y russians have improved considerably since 1991.
3. Russia is still a military superpower.
4. Its economy is in good shape. And shall be strong in next half century.

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

5. It is still a technology superpower(if u can consider such a term as valid).
6. CIA is and american agency working for making life easier for US.And we knwo that russia is still a threat for US because its still militarily strong.Such reports can be used as a weapon to degrade the russian image in international community.As that implies lesser FDI for Russia and many more economic effects.
7. In the worst case scenario bin laden will get the nuclear weapons and will bomb Washigton and New york. After which america shall be divided into 30 parts do to economiic and political turmoil.....or even worse Us retaliates by firing all its missiles that renders half the human population of earth dead instantly and rest dying next 2 months. Earth become Mars like planet in 50 years time .. LOL...

Kalpa
29 Sep 04,, 06:48
Lets look at these points:

1. Wasnt it the same CIA that said "THERE ARE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ"
2. Russian territory is the richest in natural resources.Its full of them .This is probably the reason y russians have improved considerably since 1991.
3. Russia is still a military superpower.
4. Its economy is in good shape. And shall be strong in next half century.

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

5. It is still a technology superpower(if u can consider such a term as valid).
6. CIA is and american agency working for making life easier for US.And we knwo that russia is still a threat for US because its still militarily strong.Such reports can be used as a weapon to degrade the russian image in international community.As that implies lesser FDI for Russia and many more economic effects.
7. In the worst case scenario bin laden will get the nuclear weapons and will bomb Washigton and New york. After which america shall be divided into 30 parts do to economiic and political turmoil.....or even worse Us retaliates by firing all its missiles that renders half the human population of earth dead instantly and rest dying next 2 months. Earth become Mars like planet in 50 years time .. LOL...

Supported fully. I don't think CIA has such a view point about Russia . Even after breakup of USSR the World doesn't see Russia as a Third World country. Its economy is growing. Technology is evident. Militarily its strong enough. I don't see Russia collapsing even after 100 years from now.

ajaybhutani
29 Sep 04,, 13:37
in fact we can see a lot of russian control over the world economy/afffairs in the 21st ecentury in the form of BRIC .BTW US now has many countries to think of (considering hte growing power of China .India and still powerful Russia.)
There were proposals about a triangualr alliance in the three by russians and indians and chineese are working day and night to improve their relations to form on.. LOL.. lets see what happens in 2050 when chineese indians both would be comparable to US (economy wise) and most prob with a dangerous military might too.. Who knows if the triangular alliance sees its day we might see the end of US Policemanship very soon. ...


.But again it shall remind the dangerous cold war time and teh world war time.... Well is there anythin good.. A unipolar world , a multipolar world every option seems to be dangerous.... as all of them involes weapons and military.. ... when will we humans learn to stay in peace..

xxxxx
03 Oct 04,, 11:40
When the good guys stop fighting the bad guys.

this would be a perfect point for the Lord of the Rings parallel.

Confed999
03 Oct 04,, 14:43
this would be a perfect point for the Lord of the Rings parallel.
If you're trying to say I'm wrong, then tell me why, don't try to play little games with me.