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Future War Scenario: China vs. Taiwan 2012

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  • Future War Scenario: China vs. Taiwan 2012

    Fast forward to 2012. The Taiwanese political leadership, with the mass support of the population, has irrecovably decided against the "One China, Two Governments" plans. The Taiwanese government and people want full independence in name and principle, and the right to establish themselves in international organizations, etc.

    Relations between the United States and China are at an all-time low, as the construction of China's blue water navy and expansion of its economic and military sphere of influence has brought it into conflict with those of the United States.

    The Indonesian government has agreed to the construction of Chinese naval bases on its territory. Five exist, at Banda Aceh, Dumai, and Belinyu on Sumatra, another at Paloh on Borneo, and yet another an Manado on Celebes. China effectively controls the Straits of Molucca as well as most of the rest of Indonesian waters.

    This time around, China is not bluffing. Taiwan will be attacked and invaded.

    Please give your scenarios presenting success or failure.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  • #2
    2012 is only 6 years away. We've beaten this horse to a pulp already.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
      2012 is only 6 years away. We've beaten this horse to a pulp already.
      Yeah, but it's so fun to do it again, and again...
      I enjoy being wrong too much to change my mind.

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      • #4
        just a FYI.


        The [Chinese] taxonomy of armed conflict is divided into three levels: War, campaigns, and battles. Wars are composed of serveral decisive campaigns that are strategic in nature and directly connected with the contunry political, economic, and diplomatic polices. Campiagns, on the other hand, are limited in geographic scope but still serve the nation's political, economic, and diplomatic requirements. Battles are tactical operations that serve the goals of campiagns.

        -- He Dingqing, a course on the science of campiagns. Beijing: Military science press, 2001, p239

        The book quoted above is PLA's standard text book for their their PME 101.

        I have no plan to add to this thread. However, I believe in order to have a meaningful exchange, one must look at issues from all sides. I just want to add some light on how PLA view their world, nothing more.
        “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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