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ytmuse
31 May 06,, 07:04
The world economy to 2020: A tale of three countries China, US and India to drive global growth; Brazil and Russia to disappoint
Almost 40% of the increase in global GDP in the coming 15 years will come from China (27%) and India (12%). Brazil and Russia trail in their wake, each contributing just over 2% to the increase in world GDP between now and 2020.

This is one highlight of Foresight 2020, a major new research report launched today by the Economist Intelligence Unit, sponsored by Cisco Systems. The research is based on new long-term economic forecasts, a survey of more than 1,650 executives and a series of in-depth interviews with senior executives.

Other key findings from the study:

The US, which will account for 16% of the world's growth, will remain a world leader and will continue to outpace other major developed economies between now and 2020.
The US is forecast to grow by almost 3% a year, compared with 2.1% for the EU25 and less than 1% for Japan, whose population will be shrinking.
The EU will make up for slower growth through territorial expansion, growing to a club of more than 30 countries, but the average income of the expanded EU will be only 56% of the US average in 2020.
China will have closed the gap in economic size with the US by 2020 and Asia will increase its share of world GDP, measured at purchasing power parity/PPP, from 35% in 2005 to 43% in 2020.
But talk of Asia's century is premature. “On a per-capita basis, China and India will remain far poorer than Western markets and the region faces a host of downside risks,” says Laza Kekic, director of forecasting services at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Asia will narrow the gap in wealth, power and influence, but will not close it.”

The pace of globalisation will be critical to global economic growth. Under the report's baseline scenario of further, gradual trade liberalisation, the world economy will be two-thirds bigger in 2020 than in 2005. But a partial reversal of globalisation, or, in the worst-case scenario, its unravelling, would shave up to two percentage points off annual rates of global economic growth. Conversely, faster liberalisation could add up to a percentage point to annual global growth.

Lower-cost economies will still enjoy a massive wage advantage over developed markets. In China’s case the average wage—at 5% of US and EU15 levels in 2005—will rise to about 15% of the developed-country average in 2020. Labour-intensive production processes will continue to shift to these markets, although fears of the death of Western manufacturing are premature.

(1) Increase in a country’s real GDP, at constant 2005 PPP, as a share of increase in global GDP over the same period.


Real GDP growth, selected countries, 2006-20
(annual average, %)

World 3.5
EU25 2.1
EU15 2.0
Asia 4.9
Latin America 3.2
Middle East & North Africa 4.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.8
United States 2.9
France 1.9
Germany 1.9
Italy 1.0
United Kingdom 2.3
Russia 3.3
Japan 0.7
China 6.0
India 5.9
Brazil 3.2


http://www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=eiu_Cisco_Foresight_2020


The world’s largest economies
GDP (US$bn, at PPP) GDP (US$bn, at market exchange rates)
2005 World rank 2020 World rank 2005 World rank 2020 World rank
United States 12,457 1 28,830 2 12,457 1 28,830 1
China 8,200 2 29,590 1 2,225 4 10,130 2
Japan 4,008 3 6,795 4 4,617 2 6,862 3
India 3,718 4 13,363 3 759 12 3,228 7
Germany 2,426 5 4,857 5 2,829 3 4,980 4
United Kingdom 1,962 6 4,189 6 2,213 5 4,203 5
France 1,905 7 3,831 7 2,132 6 3,536 6
Brazil 1,636 8 3,823 8 787 11 1,600 13
Italy 1,630 9 2,884 10 1,720 7 2,543 10
Russia 1,542 10 3,793 9 749 14 2,692 8
Spain 1,151 11 2,427 14 1,119 9 2,146 12
Canada 1,071 12 2,423 15 1,122 8 2,206 11
South Korea 1,067 13 2,837 11 804 10 2,607 9
Mexico 1,059 14 2,459 13 752 13 1,450 14

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

anand1266
31 May 06,, 09:23
its an open secret that chna and india are gonna rock in coming decades..
but i think chinese economy is heating up and reaching saturation point.China's main power is just manufacturingan d i believe it may not contune so in coming years. India may outpace chine very soon coz india's success story is not based on just phenominal growth in IT , metals , cement etc etc.but across many areas.ITs actually diversified.So growth will come from across the sectors...
most lucarative sector remains retail. Over 97% of the retail is unorganised and just 3% for organised retail. So u can see extreme possibilities of profits here.India has been ranked consistently as the top country in terms of attractiveness in this sector. and other lucrative areas are textiles.
BUT alas!! indian govt. is still very conservative in its policies.
I hope govt. opens up sectors like retail to foreign brands.

glow
05 Jun 06,, 17:43
I'm not sure how Canada is so low, considering the exchange is almost on par with the American dollar and it's been rising over the past 5 years pretty strongly to make it as such.

HistoricalDavid
05 Jun 06,, 18:41
Real GDP/ PPP is calculated in spite of exchange rates.

stone_cold
05 Jun 06,, 19:30
Judging by those figures, china will continue to grow 9+

HistoricalDavid
05 Jun 06,, 21:29
Judging by those figures, china will continue to grow 9+

Hm, doubtful in the extreme. It's growth rates are already down from 14-15% in the '80s.

gunnut
05 Jun 06,, 22:56
China also faces some serious challenges. Number 1 being its unbalanced population make up after the "one child" policy of the 80s. Crimes will rise. Economic growth will slow down due to loss of a large chunk of working population. Welfare system will stress the economy further. It will be interesting to see if they can keep growing at 9% (or even 10+%) with these problems popping up.

ArmchairGeneral
06 Jun 06,, 00:04
Why is this in sci/tech?

highsea
06 Jun 06,, 00:10
Cause it's science fiction?

ArmchairGeneral
06 Jun 06,, 03:05
Cause it's science fiction?
:tongue: Yeah, dismal science fiction, to boot. :biggrin:

lwarmonger
06 Jun 06,, 03:27
It would be good to remember that even though China is set to surpass us in purchasing power parity by 2020 (and this is assuming an average of 6% annual growth for their economy, not the current 9%), that the per capita wealth of that country will still be substantially less. It is also good to remember that this study assumes that current liberalizing trends in global trade patterns continue. Any regression would stand to hit China harder than most, as its economy is more "overextended" in exports than most other nations (much the way Japan was in the early 1980's).

astralis
06 Jun 06,, 03:52
china is working to correct this, through financial encouragement of chinese companies to develop the necessary domestic market. we'll see in the coming years, i reckon, if this policy succeeds. the chinese market, both for domestic and foreign sources, is far from reaching saturation point.

lwarmonger
07 Jun 06,, 03:32
china is working to correct this, through financial encouragement of chinese companies to develop the necessary domestic market. we'll see in the coming years, i reckon, if this policy succeeds. the chinese market, both for domestic and foreign sources, is far from reaching saturation point.

I agree that China's domestic market isn't reaching saturation point yet, however in my opinion developing China's domestic market is a two edged sword (albiet a desirable two edged sword). In order to develop domestic consumption wages will have to rise substantially (in order to give the Chinese consumer more purchasing power). This will simultaniously cut into investment and reduce China's competetive edge (namely cheap labor) vis a vis Western markets.

Canmoore
15 Jul 06,, 19:34
I'm not sure how Canada is so low, considering the exchange is almost on par with the American dollar and it's been rising over the past 5 years pretty strongly to make it as such.

Ok take a look at this.. The populations of the 14 countries with the largest GDP's in the world.

United States 299 million
China 1.3 billion
Japan 127 million
India 1.1 billion
Germany 83 million
United Kingdom 60 million
France 60 million
Brazil 186 million
Italy 58 million
Russia 143 million
Spain 40 million
Canada 32 million
South Korea 48 million
Mexico 106 million

Canada has the lowest population. So Canada's economy is very strong, when compared to the fact that we have a measly population, spread out thin, in a band encompasing the area between the American border and the hellish Canadian frontier.

I dont take tha fact that we are 12th on the list, to mean that Canada is any worse off. Look at Russia, India, Brazil, China (no offence to anyone)...while they have larger economies than Canada, the vast majority living in those countries, standards of living are well below what even the worse off of Canadians have.

Canada is a small but extremely hard working and industrious country, you should be proud of that. Dont let some silly list confuse you.

ArmchairGeneral
16 Jul 06,, 05:07
Actually, Canada sucks. All you guys got are those Mounties in those tastless uniforms and Moose/Mooses/Meese. If Canada was worth anything we'dve annexed you long ago. :biggrin: ;)

Tronic
16 Jul 06,, 08:31
haha... common... with those Mounties around, how on Earth can you even imagine annexing Canada!!! :biggrin:

gunnut
16 Jul 06,, 09:44
Beware of those Royal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen. :eek:

Tronic
16 Jul 06,, 16:36
hehe... just wondering.. has anyone here seen the movie, "Canadian Bacon"??? its a hillarious movie based on a US invasion of Canada, simply because US is getting bored... :biggrin:

gilgamesh
16 Jul 06,, 17:32
Actually, Canada sucks. All you guys got are those Mounties in those tastless uniforms and Moose/Mooses/Meese. If Canada was worth anything we'dve annexed you long ago. :biggrin: ;)

Remember 1812? :biggrin:

Also remember, our Tar sands hold the world's largest oil reserves.... :)

Btw, whos' your number 1 trading partner? :rolleyes:

Tronic
16 Jul 06,, 20:43
lol... yea, Canada is pretty rich in oil...

Tronic
16 Jul 06,, 20:43
errmmm... 1812... is that when the British burned down the Whitehouse???

ArmchairGeneral
16 Jul 06,, 23:37
Remember 1812? :biggrin:

Also remember, our Tar sands hold the world's largest oil reserves.... :)

Btw, whos' your number 1 trading partner? :rolleyes:
I'll pit our oil shales and wind power against your tar sands any day. :biggrin:

Canmoore
17 Jul 06,, 02:00
Actually, Canada sucks. All you guys got are those Mounties in those tastless uniforms and Moose/Mooses/Meese. If Canada was worth anything we'dve annexed you long ago. :biggrin: ;)

:tongue:

dont forget our nuclear beavers!

PubFather
18 Jul 06,, 20:47
errmmm... 1812... is that when the British burned down the Whitehouse???
Happy days.... :tongue: :biggrin:

omon
26 Nov 06,, 15:46
canada has free healthcare. canadian doctors better that in us simply cuz they go to med shcool to be doctors not to make millions.

Officer of Engineers
27 Nov 06,, 01:16
Never mind the War of 1812, CANADA CUP FOREVER!

Tronic
27 Nov 06,, 02:58
Canada Cup??? does this have something to do with ice hockey???

Officer of Engineers
27 Nov 06,, 03:30
Yes, where grown up men wearing body armour and weapon in hand. What more can you ask?

DOR
20 Jan 14,, 09:56
Might just revive an old thread, and with some numbers that put meat on medium term forecasts made before the North Atlantic Financial Crisis.

China’s economy grew 7.7% in 2013, to Rmb56.9 trillion (US$9.16 trillion), assuming the data are correct. On a per capita basis, that US$6,732, roughly double the 2009 level, more than triple the 2006 level and 10 times that of 1995. Consumer prices rose 2.6% and the broad money supply 14.4%.

Exports 7.9%, imports 7.3% and the trade balance hit US$260 billion. At $4.16 trillion, two-way trade was double the 2009 level. Foreign exchange reserves topped $3.8 trillion and inward foreign investment a record $117.6 billion. Somewhere in the forex minus FDI minus trade balance figures is a $110 billion rounding error.

The renminbi rose 1.8% against the US dollar during the year (averaging Rmb6.2:US$1), 12.3% over 5 years and 32.4% since it began appreciating in 2005.
???????????? (http://www.stats.gov.cn/)