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Gio
16 Nov 03,, 23:36
I predict this in the next election. This is if the dems get a moderate canadiate, if they get Dean. i will make huge revisions. he'll surly pull a mondale.

Ironduke
16 Nov 03,, 23:37
Can you post the link to the interactive map?

Ironduke
16 Nov 03,, 23:43
Here's mine

I can't believe you gave Minnesota to Bush in '04. The Democratic candidate will definitely win it.

Gio
16 Nov 03,, 23:44
I'm basing my results on the newest Pew Center data that shows GOP gains in Minn.

And i think you're smoking on FL, Bush has made gains among seniors, jews and hispanics in FL.

Ironduke
16 Nov 03,, 23:47
I think the Democratic base in Florida will be much more energized after the debacle there in 2000 though.

With the prolonged decline of manufacturing and mining in the US, I think West Virginia might go Democrat as well.

Pennsylvania is also another heavily industrialized state that has seen alot of job loss, it might go to the Dems as well.

Gio
16 Nov 03,, 23:49
I beg to differ, with the new medicare expansion, support of Israel and hard line aganist cuba energizing the traditionally conservative Cuban-American base..
I don't give them a chance.

On West Virginia, they're very conservative pro-military people, and with the steel tariffs as back-up. I think Bush can win it.

Same can be said about penn and steel tariffs.


Also, with the resurance of the economy finnally occuring, with the economy adding 300,000 jobs in the 3rd quarter. The picture for Bush looks brighter.

Ironduke
16 Nov 03,, 23:54
Most of what would be considered the Democratic base didn't vote in the last election, I think the Ds will be making a major push to get out the vote in 2004.

As far as West Virginia is concerned, the steel tarriff is on it's way out, the Europeans are going to assign a number of punitive tarriffs against US goods if it doesn't.

Industrial jobs are going and they're not coming back. The most heavily industrial states have been hit the hardest.

Praxus
16 Nov 03,, 23:55
http://www.presidentelect.org/images/e2004_4_ecmap.GIF


As far as West Virginia is concerned, the steel tarriff is on it's way out, the Europeans are going to assign a number of punitive tarriffs against US goods if it doesn't.

Exports to Europe account for less then 60% of our total exports. This is around 370 billion dollars which is smaller then our defense Budget. Even though I am against the steel terrifs, Europe placing terrifs won't do much if anything to our economy.

Gio
16 Nov 03,, 23:58
American idustrial production is on the rise with it rising to 2000 levels, with it rising in every one of the fed's 12 districts.

It's only a matter of time before the jobs start to return. Not all of them, but at least some.

Praxus
17 Nov 03,, 00:08
Job Growth from end of 200...

http://www.capmag.com/images1z2345x/charts/20030912jobs.gif

Household Survey includes small buisnesses where the Establishment Survey is only big buisness and government.

This whole exporting jobs to china thing is BULLSHIT. There is infinite work to be doen therefor there is infinite ammount of possible jobs.

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 00:21
Industrial production is up - OK, does this have to do more with more people being hired in industry or more robots?

300,000 jobs created last month, how many in manufacturing. None. We still lost jobs in manufacturing. The most heavily industrial states will be the big losers as far as jobs go.

Gio
17 Nov 03,, 00:23
Actually, the job index of the fed's survey is up to 2000 levels as well. The bleeding is slowing and the jobs will return.

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 00:24
So there are as many jobs in industry now as there were in 2000?

Gio
17 Nov 03,, 00:25
No, there's a hiring index, below 50 signals decline in manufacturing employment, above 50 signals expansion. It's surged to above 60 from the 40s.

Praxus
17 Nov 03,, 00:28
Industrial production is up - OK, does this have to do more with more people being hired in industry or more robots?

300,000 jobs created last month, how many in manufacturing. None. We still lost jobs in manufacturing. The most heavily industrial states will be the big losers as far as jobs go.


Jobs are just moving from big buisness to small buisness. It is that simple.

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 00:30
Originally posted by Praxus
Jobs are just moving from big buisness to small buisness. It is that simple.
The job growth certainly isn't even. States with alot of industry are at a deficit, states with alot of services-oriented jobs are at a surplus.

Praxus
17 Nov 03,, 00:37
The job growth certainly isn't even. States with alot of industry are at a deficit, states with alot of services-oriented jobs are at a surplus.

That had nothing to do with what I just said.

The fact is including small buisness we are at the same level we were in 2000 for unemployment.

Now since the survey that doesn't include small buisness and self-employment is going down and then one that does is going up. This tells me that jobs are shifting from big buisness to small buisness.

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 00:41
Ok, you said jobs are moving from big business to small business, that's all.

Where, primarily, are big business jobs being lost, and where, primarily are small business jobs being created?

It doesn't matter to somebody who lost a good-paying manufacturing job if somebody else got employment in a small business job 500 miles away. What matters to them is that they are still unemployed.

Praxus
17 Nov 03,, 00:46
I don't mean people who were working in factories are now working in small buisness I am saying jobs in general.

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 00:53
Yeah, in general, that means the nation as a whole.

Just because the nation as a whole is adding jobs doesn't mean industrial states are, and these voters may decide not to vote for Bush.

Praxus
17 Nov 03,, 01:06
When did I ever say that would not be the case?

Ironduke
17 Nov 03,, 03:36
The fact that you brought it up when I was talking about job growth in industrial states alone....