Egypt's ElBaradei: Liberals 'decimated' in vote

**Versus** · 24 Jun 12,, 19:33

Originally Posted by Double Edge

Let things happen first

How long is this phase going to last. or will there be a coup.

I would guess that it will start within next 6 months, but I am not in the field so I don't know for sure.

**Doktor** · 24 Jun 12,, 19:40

Originally Posted by Versus

So what we have to look for in the future?

If we had a crystal ball, we'd be billionaires.

Most likely the civil war in Egypt,

closing down the Suez straight,

While civil war raging? Whichever side is gonna do that that is signing their own defeat.

oil prices going up,

It might go up temporarily, but the demand will go down very fast.

European economy crumbling,

You mean more?

attacks on Israel,

From Egypt? With a civil war raging? Hardly.

Siriya vs Nato

How is Egyptian elections gonna spark this?

and Balkans re igniting again.

Same as above.

Culmination will be, as usual, the Iran.

When was Iran a culmination.

**Versus** · 24 Jun 12,, 19:46

Originally Posted by Doktor

If we had a crystal ball, we'd be billionaires.

While civil war raging? Whichever side is gonna do that that is signing their own defeat.

It might go up temporarily, but the demand will go down very fast.

You mean more?

From Egypt? With a civil war raging? Hardly.

How is Egyptian elections gonna spark this?

Same as above.

When was Iran a culmination.

That is why we have analysts, not the fortune tellers

Events are linked,my good Doktor.

**Versus** · 26 Jun 12,, 21:30

And by the way,Doktor,regarding the Balkans,what do you think of this?
Wesley Clark Seeks Licence For Oil in Kosovo :: Balkan Insight
Where the pipline will go?Trough Albania,with all those mountains,don't think so...

**Doktor** · 27 Jun 12,, 05:45

Close to this maybe?

Albania

**Versus** · 27 Jun 12,, 06:59

Originally Posted by Doktor

Close to this maybe?

Albania

Let's move this discussion to the morgue thread, this one is about Egypt.

**bigross86** · 29 Jun 12,, 14:18

Hey, here's a question: Say the Egyptians decide they don't want to uphold and keep the peace treaty with Israel, how will they go about transferring the Sinai back into Israeli hands?

**Mihais** · 29 Jun 12,, 14:46

You have yet to prove you're as good as your grandpas and they have to prove they're as useless as theirs.

**Doktor** · 29 Jun 12,, 14:51

Originally Posted by Mihais

You have yet to prove you're as good as your grandpas and they have to prove they're as useless as theirs.

**bigross86** · 29 Jun 12,, 15:49

Originally Posted by Mihais

You have yet to prove you're as good as your grandpas and they have to prove they're as useless as theirs.

Irrelevant. It's a simple question. If the Egyptians choose not to abide by the peace treaty anymore, how will they go about giving the Sinai back to Israel?

**Doktor** · 29 Jun 12,, 17:13

Originally Posted by bigross86

Irrelevant. It's a simple question. If the Egyptians choose not to abide by the peace treaty anymore, how will they go about giving the Sinai back to Israel?

There is nothing simple in that question To translate you, they mean we won't obey what we think is bad for us, and will keep all the benefits that are good for us like Sinai, US aid, etc.

If it ever happens, it will be up to Israel to:
a) bring the issue to the court, and if they win hoping for a force majeur to implement it, or
b) use military options to take it back

What Mihais said is still valid.

**Double Edge** · 29 Jun 12,, 18:43

Originally Posted by bigross86

Hey, here's a question: Say the Egyptians decide they don't want to uphold and keep the peace treaty with Israel, how will they go about transferring the Sinai back into Israeli hands?

Discussed this earlier and Rocco mentioned there were two components to the camp david accords.

The first which is what you're referring to requires Israel's agreement to change, Egypt can't just rescind it on their own. The alarmist articles i've seen neglect to mention this point.

The second component which deals with Palestine has not had much progress.

Egypt could try to push for more with that.

**tbm3fan** · 05 Jul 12,, 06:47

With a new government are some now taking advantage of it to enforce their version of morality in what was typically a fairly secular country? Would the military react to this if it is happening out in the rural areas.

Student murder stokes fears of Egypt's Islamists - SFGate

**Double Edge** · 05 Jul 12,, 07:40

Originally Posted by tbm3fan

With a new government are some now taking advantage of it to enforce their version of morality in what was typically a fairly secular country?

The murder of a university student by suspected militants as his girlfriend looked on is fueling fears in Egypt that vigilante groups seeking to enforce a strict interpretation of Islam’s teachings may be feeling confident with an Islamist president in office to take over the streets.

yes i would think its possible and was expecting it. Even the settling of scores.

The media will be playing this up whenever it occurs. How the Copts are concerned etc.

Originally Posted by tbm3fan

Would the military react to this if it is happening out in the rural areas.

Depends on the scale. If its isolated incidents then its a law & order issue. A new balance will have to be found as the power equation is slightly changed.