Thread: Libya updates

Libyan civil war deepens as rebels beat back Khadafy forces in three towns - NYPOST.com

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned Congress that the civil war could go on.

"In the years ahead, Libya could become a peaceful democracy or it could face protracted civil war, or it could descend into chaos. The stakes are high," she said.

In other developments:

* Khadafy fired his most trusted aide, his bloodthirsty brother-in-law, Gen. Abdullah Senussi, as intelligence chief and replaced him with one of his bodyguards, the Libyan newspaper Quryna reported.

* Clinton said the Obama administration might try to prosecute Khadafy for the 1988 Lockerbie bombing. Some Libyan officials who defected in recent weeks have said Khadafy ordered the terrorist attack on Pan Am Flight 103.

* Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters that the Pentagon was moving two amphibious assault ships and hundreds of Marines into the Mediterranean.

* The UN General Assembly voted to suspend Libya from the UN Human Rights Council.

Another money drain.

Libya seizes NATO troops during rescue mission - World news - Mideast/N. Africa - msnbc.com
3 dutch marines siezed in Libya.

The problem with playing with someone like Kadaffy is that in the end if he is loosing, he knows he has nowhere to go. Which means he will probably detonate all the oil infrastructure to prevent it from falling into the hands of the "colonizers".

I think what happened is that Lybia had a clash between tribal interests revolving around oil revenue sharing add to that the general sizes of foreign workers (competing for low wages with residents) from countries whom are not oil/gas producers you get a very unstable society.

I actually think the mistake was made at the very beginning somehow supporting the movement in the east. Its not really a win win for anyone no matter how it ends.

Originally Posted by cyppok

The problem with playing with someone like Kadaffy is that in the end if he is loosing, he knows he has nowhere to go. Which means he will probably detonate all the oil infrastructure to prevent it from falling into the hands of the "colonizers".

Depends if safe passage to a neutral country can be worked out or not.

Originally Posted by cyppok

I think what happened is that Lybia had a clash between tribal interests revolving around oil revenue sharing add to that the general sizes of foreign workers (competing for low wages with residents) from countries whom are not oil/gas producers you get a very unstable society.

Ok, but this has been going on for a while, so why does it suddenly blow up now ?

Did they get inspired by the Egyptians & Tunisians.

Originally Posted by cyppok

I actually think the mistake was made at the very beginning somehow supporting the movement in the east. Its not really a win win for anyone no matter how it ends.

Gaddafi never really had much trust in the east so this might have been the start. He made sure they got second best compared to those that did trust him.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

Depends if safe passage to a neutral country can be worked out or not.


Ok, but this has been going on for a while, so why does it suddenly blow up now ?

Did they get inspired by the Egyptians & Tunisians.

Gaddafi never really had much trust in the east so this might have been the start. He made sure they got second best compared to those that did trust him.

{it blows up when there is no way for him to win or a coalition force lands on Libya}
{perhaps, the odd thing is if he had no support he wouldn't control the other half of the country if he has support from the second/third largest tribe, berbers and others that means its a civil war and not an overthrow}

About safe passage you surely jest? cause they already said they would try to re-trial him for his conduct now and previously. He knows there is no out.

This article
Libya War Draws Chavez, Arab Mediation Offer as Qaddafi Attacks - Bloomberg

Two U.S. Navy warships with Marines aboard will arrive off Libya within a day or two for possible humanitarian operations, said Josh Diddams, a spokesman for the Marine Corps at the Pentagon. U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead said two aircraft carriers are already in the region and a third is preparing for deployment there from Norfolk, Virginia.

U.K. Foreign Minister William Hague spoke with General Abdul Fattah Younis, who resigned as interior minister on Feb. 23 to join the opposition in Benghazi, and told him Britain is working on contingency planning “for all eventualities, including a no-fly zone,” according to Hague’s office.

There will be repercussions to this globally if the marines land for "humanitarian reasons." if an artificial division is made to keep a frozen conflict/division of country it might get interesting. The play to install leadership that is west compliant might backfire.

Fresh protests hit Libyan capital - Africa - Al Jazeera English

Rebels have vowed "victory or death" as they headed towards the oil terminal, with reports that trucks of armed anti-Gaddafi fighters are heading towards the area.

"We're going to take it all, Ras Lanuf, Tripoli," Magdi Mohammed, an army defector, fingering the pin of a grenade, told Reuters.

Opposition protesters in the country's east have set up advanced positions 50km west of Brega, which lies in between Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte and the opposition-held port of Benghazi, and sits near ethnic fault lines between tribes loyal to the leader.

The problem with this is that if the split occured on tribal lines even if Qadaffi is gone there will be a conflict to not let them "take it all".

Originally Posted by cyppok

{it blows up when there is no way for him to win or a coalition force lands on Libya}

I meant on Feb 17 when it started.

Originally Posted by cyppok

{perhaps, the odd thing is if he had no support he wouldn't control the other half of the country if he has support from the second/third largest tribe, berbers and others that means its a civil war and not an overthrow}

They made a deal with him as there was no alternative at the time unlike now.

Originally Posted by cyppok

About safe passage you surely jest? cause they already said they would try to re-trial him for his conduct now and previously. He knows there is no out.

Right, so in hindsight was the bolded bit wise as it left him no out ?

I'm under the impression it was made on the strength of the allegations of his resigned interior minister about the Pan Am bombing.

Originally Posted by cyppok

There will be repercussions to this globally if the marines land for "humanitarian reasons." if an artificial division is made to keep a frozen conflict/division of country it might get interesting. The play to install leadership that is west compliant might backfire.

I'm going on the assumption this is meant to be a credible bluff. No intervention but a threatening presence close by. Are all westerners out of the country yet ?

Originally Posted by cyppok

Fresh protests hit Libyan capital - Africa - Al Jazeera English

The problem with this is that if the split occured on tribal lines even if Qadaffi is gone there will be a conflict to not let them "take it all".

Partitioning would send the wrong message. Libyans have not reached the point where this question has come up yet.

I do not think moving the amphibious landing vessel and moving carrier(s) for air support is a bluff. My feeling is the landing will be marketed as a "training advisor" mission to train the rebels to retake the rest of the country along with supplies of military materiel.

The problems to doing this is it basically means if your strong enough you can geopolitically strong arm through force the political events of other countries where interests economic or otherwise are apparent. What happens if Iran goes into Iraq post pullout because they need to secure the Najaf shrine? it will be marketed the same way as a stabilization mechanism, or Saudi Arabia into Yemen? In some sense this creates an incentive to create vassal states and installing leaders that serve external interests.

It is foolish to believe that there will be stability and improvement post-change, other than an image and a media view that will be colored with rose colored glasses we will not know if its better or worse. The truth is important not my truth or your truth or rebels or Qadaffi but the actual state of things.

Originally Posted by cyppok

I do not think moving the amphibious landing vessel and moving carrier(s) for air support is a bluff. My feeling is the landing will be marketed as a "training advisor" mission to train the rebels to retake the rest of the country along with supplies of military materiel.

The problems to doing this is it basically means if your strong enough you can geopolitically strong arm through force the political events of other countries where interests economic or otherwise are apparent. What happens if Iran goes into Iraq post pullout because they need to secure the Najaf shrine? it will be marketed the same way as a stabilization mechanism, or Saudi Arabia into Yemen? In some sense this creates an incentive to create vassal states and installing leaders that serve external interests.

It is foolish to believe that there will be stability and improvement post-change, other than an image and a media view that will be colored with rose colored glasses we will not know if its better or worse. The truth is important not my truth or your truth or rebels or Qadaffi but the actual state of things.

Vassal states? Dude what is Iraq and Afghanistan? How about the last half of century? That's all history knows. Your making it sound like it's any different.

Originally Posted by cyppok

I do not think moving the amphibious landing vessel and moving carrier(s) for air support is a bluff. My feeling is the landing will be marketed as a "training advisor" mission to train the rebels to retake the rest of the country along with supplies of military materiel.

Or there could just be supplies to the rebels. There's a big coast and no Libyan navy to speak of. These ppl will do anything to win, there's no going back now.

Originally Posted by cyppok

The problems to doing this is it basically means if your strong enough you can geopolitically strong arm through force the political events of other countries where interests economic or otherwise are apparent. What happens if Iran goes into Iraq post pullout because they need to secure the Najaf shrine? it will be marketed the same way as a stabilization mechanism, or Saudi Arabia into Yemen? In some sense this creates an incentive to create vassal states and installing leaders that serve external interests.

There would have to be exceptional reasons to intervene, i suspect there aren't any yet.

Originally Posted by cyppok

It is foolish to believe that there will be stability and improvement post-change, other than an image and a media view that will be colored with rose colored glasses we will not know if its better or worse. The truth is important not my truth or your truth or rebels or Qadaffi but the actual state of things.

Would you agree that the least worst scenario is for the rebels to win ?

There's three adjacent countries here which the world is ready to help. They will serve as a formidable agent for change in the Arab world. Libya has oil, unlike bombed out Germany & Japan and they did fine post war.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

There's three adjacent countries here which the world is ready to help.

I've yet to see anyone willing to help any particular side in Libya. The only ones pushing for a no-flight zone are the UK. There's quite a lot of states who'd love it if it all just "went away" and we'd be back to the status quo ante. And if we're truthful about it, the same would go for Egypt too. Tunisia not so much, then again nothing has really changed in Tunisia.

The problem with the rebels is that they're not even united in the first place. They're splintered, heavily - every town is fighting for itself. There are attempts coming from Bengazi to unify the effort and bring the defected troops into a cohesive military format, but even at that they're hindering themselves by saying "we have to take Tripolis first". Quite seriously, it's no wonder there isn't really much movement in Libya either way. And it's no wonder Gaddafi hasn't seen the need yet to just drop a couple hundred Scuds on Bengazi yet, but instead actually acts with an astonishing measure.

And regarding the splintering, i see a lot of problems there even if the rebels win. Just take the "innocent" fact that there's Royal Flags being waved in the East - if we get down to it, that's not a Libyan flag (Libya was only a unitary state under Idris for all of six years during the last century), that's a flag symbolizing both the victory of Cyrenaica over Tripolitania and Fezzan, the supremacy of the Sanussi bedouins over their peers, and some nebulous monarchical allusion with no clear aspirant in sight - all rolled into one. The rebels win, this could turn into a real civil war.

Originally Posted by kato

I've yet to see anyone willing to help any particular side in Libya.

I meant after the rebels win by themselves. That the world would help to build up their economies like Germany & Japan, post WW2.

Originally Posted by kato

The only ones pushing for a no-flight zone are the UK. There's quite a lot of states who'd love it if it all just "went away" and we'd be back to the status quo ante. And if we're truthful about it, the same would go for Egypt too.

Sure

Originally Posted by kato

Tunisia not so much, then again nothing has really changed in Tunisia.

Don't follow what you mean by nothing has changed in Tunisia ?

Once they hold their elections, it will be a different country. There are those that disagree with that notion as they see this as just the head decapitated but the state apparatus of the previous regime is still very much intact. There are dictators in the bureaucracy & security forces so to speak. But if the ppl could overthrow the head, then these other dictators can be taken care of as well. Otherwise the fight isn't over yet.

Originally Posted by kato

The problem with the rebels is that they're not even united in the first place. They're splintered, heavily - every town is fighting for itself. There are attempts coming from Bengazi to unify the effort and bring the defected troops into a cohesive military format, but even at that they're hindering themselves by saying "we have to take Tripolis first". Quite seriously, it's no wonder there isn't really much movement in Libya either way. And it's no wonder Gaddafi hasn't seen the need yet to just drop a couple hundred Scuds on Bengazi yet, but instead actually acts with an astonishing measure.

Neither side sees the other as overly threatening yet. They'll get to it at their own pace. There was rebel movement towards towns closer to Tripoli earlier last week but it appears to have been fought back.

Originally Posted by kato

And regarding the splintering, i see a lot of problems there even if the rebels win. Just take the "innocent" fact that there's Royal Flags being waved in the East - if we get down to it, that's not a Libyan flag (Libya was only a unitary state under Idris for all of six years during the last century), that's a flag symbolizing both the victory of Cyrenaica over Tripolitania and Fezzan, the supremacy of the Sanussi bedouins over their peers, and some nebulous monarchical allusion with no clear aspirant in sight - all rolled into one. The rebels win, this could turn into a real civil war.

This is an interesting point. I was thinking earlier that there isn't the Shia-Sunni split in Libya like there is in Iraq and this was just a matter of Sunni tribes fighting it out. About the flag, wiki says..

1951–1969

The flag of the Kingdom of Libya was adopted when Libya gained independence in 1951 from Italy. It consisted of a white crescent-and-star on a triband red-black-green design, with the central black band being twice the width of the outer bands. The design was based on the banner of the Senussi dynasty from Cyrenaica, which consisted of a black field and crescent-and-star design, and was later used as the flag of the region. The red represented the region of Fezzan, while the green came from the banner of Tripolitania.

If it was just the Cyrenaica flag then i would agree it symbolises the victory of one area over the others kind like the official Libyan flag currently, all green representing the victory of Tripolitania over Fezzan & Cyrenaica. But this is a tricolour and comprises all three areas. Also, note the difference in height of the bands between the old kingdom flag and the present one used by the protesters. Looks equitable to me



In the end most of the oil is supposed to be in centre, area covering all three tribes. If it degenerates into yet another civil war there might be higher chances of UN intervention and power sharing or wealth sharing to be worked out.

Dear me , its not like these lads to slip up , i like Mr Fox's reply tho .




Eight SAS soldiers have been detained by rebels in Libya, according to Sky News sources.



Rebel sources told Sky that the group are being held in Libya's second city in Benghazi.

The Ministry of Defence and the Foreign Office have neither confirmed or denied the report but Defence Secretary Liam Fox has confirmed that a "small diplomatic team" is in Benghazi to talk to Libyan rebels.

Mr Fox declined to comment on reports the SAS unit guarding the team had been detained.

"We are in touch with them but it would be inappropriate for me to comment further on that" he told the Andrew Marr show.

According to the Sky sources the eight SAS members were among a group of around 22 soldiers and one diplomat believed to have been dropped by helicopter in an area south of the Benghazi.

Only eight were detained and it is expected that they will be released either today or tomorrow.

There is speculation it could be an attempt by the rebels to ensure the interim Libyan council receives diplomatic recognition.

The SAS's intervention has allegedly angered Libyan opposition figures who ordered the armed and plain-clothes soldiers to be locked up on a military base.

Opponents of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's fear he could use any evidence of western military interference to rally patriotic support for his regime.

Sky News defence correspondent Niall Paterson said: "The feeling in London is that the rebels who have taken the SAS members and junior diplomat are simply making a point.

"There is no feeling this will end badly."

:: Libyan warplanes are reported to have launched airstrikes on rebels advancing on Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's stronghold of Sirte 350 miles (560km) west of Benghazi


EDIT

Eight SAS soldiers who had been detained by Libyan rebels near Benghazi have left the country aboard HMS Cumberland, according to Sky News sources.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

note the difference in height of the bands between the old kingdom flag and the present one used by the protesters.

Seen both versions being waved actually

Originally Posted by Double Edge

covering all three tribes.

That's part of the problem - it's not just three groups. There are at least five major and a dozen minor Bedouin and at least two Berber-speaking tribes in Libya, plus Touareg and Tubu effectively covering Fezzan. Plus the urbanized population consisting of Arabs and two million African immigrants of course.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

Once they hold their elections, it will be a different country.

Once they hold their elections. Right now, before that? Tunisia has already turned back into what it effectively was: A prime cheap vacation spot for Europeans that had a population somewhere in the background that was held in check by the military and police. That hasn't really changed so far.

Originally Posted by tankie

Dear me , its not like these lads to slip up , i like Mr Fox's reply tho .

Happens to the best of us mate

All out and safe now. Strict ROE's i suspect.

Originally Posted by kato

Seen both versions being waved actually

True.

Originally Posted by kato

That's part of the problem - it's not just three groups. There are at least five major and a dozen minor Bedouin and at least two Berber-speaking tribes in Libya, plus Touareg and Tubu effectively covering Fezzan. Plus the urbanized population consisting of Arabs and two million African immigrants of course.

So you are thinking potential Darfur situation like in Sudan ?

Originally Posted by kato

Once they hold their elections. Right now, before that? Tunisia has already turned back into what it effectively was: A prime cheap vacation spot for Europeans that had a population somewhere in the background that was held in check by the military and police. That hasn't really changed so far.

Have to get the tourists back. They have not set a date for the elections AFAIK.