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Thread: No Fly Zone for Libya?

  1. #61
    Contributor RoccoR's Avatar
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    Yusuf, et al,

    While clearly, there is unrest, there is not as much support for Regime Change as one gathers from the media.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yusuf View Post
    Yes the longer this drags, the better are the chances of Gadaffi succeeding in wresting back control. I think the rebels need a little more than moral support.
    (COMMENT)

    This is not overwhelmingly supported by the People of Libya. Moammar Gadhafi's forces have more than a fighting chance to secure Protestor Holdings.

    There may not be enough of a ground swell to overthrow the Dictator.

    It would be wise if the US remained silent and let the Libyans determine their own destiny. If the Libyans decide that Moammar Gadhafi is to remain the ruler, so be it. It is their choice.

    Most Respectfully,
    R

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Col, I think one problem has been that Qadhaffi spent decades ensuring precisely that there is no such general in Libya, and I worry that as this drags on he may gain back momentum. Already there are reports of a massive explosion at the Benghazi arms depot with mass casualties, and he seems to have consolidated his hold over NW Libya.
    To follow up this is the kind of thing I was afraid of. I'm not certain that Qadhaffi is finished or that the rebels are ready to finish him off.

    Gadhafi's forces break through Libya rebel lines
    Opposition appear to be loosing in Zawiya in west, but their flag flies over new city in east


    NBC, msnbc.com and news services NBC, msnbc.com and news services
    updated 6 minutes ago 2011-03-05T07:52:26

    Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's forces broke through rebel defenses at the city of Zawiya Saturday, witnesses said after a battle in which dozens of people were killed.

    The attack on the city, about 30 miles west of Tripoli, saw an improvised force of rebels armed with hunting rifles and swords take on troops from the elite Khamis Brigade — named after the son of Gadhafi who commands it.

    The witnesses said that forces loyal to the regime had overcome rebel positions with tanks, heavy mortar shelling, machinegun fire.

    The rattle of gunfire and explosions could be heard as they spoke to The Associated Press by phone. They did so on condition of anonymity because of fears for their safety.

    They added that several fires were raging in Zawiya Saturday.

    "Now with all the artillery, tanks and armored vehicles, we're seeing battles and killings we haven't seen in Iraq. I consider it total genocide," said one witness who spoke to Al-Arabiya television.

    "The battles have now entered the city. More than 15 armored vehicles entered two hours ago along with a tank. There is heavy firing in all the areas and mosques have announced 'jihad' against these brigades," the man told Al-Arabiya.

    Al-Jazeera television news carried similar reports about fighting in Zawiya and said tanks had fired on homes.

    "There is heavy bombing of the city by tanks and heavy weapons and mortars — the rebels are struggling to resist with very primitive means. They [invading forces] have no mercy and are very brutal. There is a large number of injured and a lot of people killed on the streets," a witness, Ahmed, told Al-Jazeera by telephone.

    'We will die here'
    He said he was speaking from the central Martyrs' Square in Zawiya where he and other rebels had been surrounded by tanks. Artillery and machine gun fire could be heard in the background.

    "There is no mercy to civilians ... there is a very tragic situation happening right now. It's a very serious situation. We were expecting the world to intervene, but they have let us down. Shelling is now coming in from all sides," Ahmed told Al-Jazeera.

    "We have made up our mind that we will die here. Where is the United Nations or the Arab League or the international community who have spoken about our rights or protecting us? I don't think they meant what they have said," he added.

    Al-Jazeera reported that hospital medics claimed to have seen injured people on Zawiya's street being executed and that ambulances had been attacked.

    After a number of failed attempts to take the city, the troops on Friday launched a fresh offensive, bombarding Zawiya's western edges with tanks and anti-aircraft guns, several residents said.
    Video: Libyan rebels lose ground in Zawiya (on this page)

    The rebels had said Friday they were still in control of the central square, but admitted that the soldiers had taken the small town of Harsha, on the city's outskirts, after heavy fighting.

    "Dozens were killed and more were wounded. We have counted 30 dead civilians. The hospital was full. They could not find space for the casualties," a Zawiya resident identified only as Mohamed told Reuters by telephone Friday.

    "People used swords and hunting rifles to defend Martyrs Square. Even mothers used those weapons," he added.

    The death toll from the fighting at Zawiya was unclear. On Friday, The Associated Press quoted a witness at Zawiya's hospital as saying 18 people had been killed and 120 wounded. Another resident told Reuters that between 40 and 50 people were killed in the clashes.
    Interactive: Key events, players in Libya (on this page)

    The commander of the rebel forces in Zawiya — Hussein Darbouk — was among those killed, Alaa al-Zawi, an activist in the city, told the AP.

    Darbouk, an army colonel who defected along with other troops in Zawiya early on in the uprising, was shot to death by fire from an anti-aircraft gun, he said.

    Rebel flag flies in eastern town
    However, in the east, the town of Ras Lanuf was largely calm with the rebel flag flying over it after opposition forces drove out loyalist troops Friday.

    The rebels opened fire on a helicopter flying overhead Saturday, a Reuters correspondent in the town reported, but otherwise there was no sign of Gadhafi's forces.

    At a checkpoint at the entrance to the town Saturday, there was a rebel checkpoint, manned by half a dozen soldiers.

    Asked if rebels were in charge of the whole town, one soldier replied: "Everything, 100 percent, it is completely safe."

    Hoisted over a roundabout in the town was the Libyan flag that pre-dates the military coup that brought Gadhafi to power four decades ago, the symbol adopted by the rebels.

    "We control Ras Lanuf, the port, airport, the oil company and the residential area," said Ahmed Aljili, a rebel fighter in Ras Lanuf.

    A day earlier, flashes and thuds had resounded from fighting around the area of Ras Lanuf, a major oil terminal of the OPEC producer that sits on the Mediterranean coast. Helicopters had strafed positions of rebels, who fired rifles back.

    In developments Friday:

    * An explosion at an ammunition depot near Libya's rebel stronghold of Benghazi killed at least 17 people and injured 18, hospital officials said.
    * Interpol delivered a global "Orange Notice" alert for Gadhafi and 15 members of his inner circle to help police worldwide enforce U.N. sanctions. An "Orange Notice" is not an arrest warrant but is issued to help countries track down illegal assets or suspects wanted for extradition.
    * Two Red Crescent medics were wounded by Gadhafi troops as they tried to retrieve a body near Misrata, Amnesty International reported.
    * A Libyan warplane bombed just beyond the walls of a military base used to store huge amounts of ammunition and now held by rebels in the eastern town of Ajdabiya but did not hit it.
    * Two vessels carrying 1,300 U.S. Marines docked Friday at an American base on Crete as part of a military build up around Libya, the U.S. Navy said. Souda Bay navy base spokesman Paul Farley said the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge and the USS Ponce arrived at the base, carrying a total of around 4,000 personnel, including the Marines.
    * Two U.S. Air Force cargo planes also flew blankets, water and other relief supplies to Tunisia on Friday as part of an international effort to help refugees who fled from the fighting in Libya.

  3. #63
    Senior Contributor Dago's Avatar
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    Yeah, I heard of large civilian casualties. And essentially, this was the first offensive, with success.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Gentlemen, some REAL history. The Libyan invasion of Chad was defeated by a single company of French Foreign Legionnaires commanding 3000 Chadians.

    Qaddafy is NOT a military man. He sucks as a military man.

    Qadaffy has already lost. It takes one competent General to kill him. Just because that General has not appeared does not mean we need to send in a Captain to kill him. Qaddafy is gone. Period. His pilots aiming for civilians hit a football field which means one of two things ... the pilot cannot aim for craps ... or the pilot cannot hit for craps ... Either way, the Libyan AF IS NOT a show stopper!
    Ok lets say he is gone and the tribal divisions still exist? Do you have to kill the country's population because they do not espouse your idea of a leader from the eastern tribes due to democratic ambitions?

    Why intervene to decide between one leader for another, you won't know which is worse you don't live on the ground within either regime.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  5. #65
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Col, I think one problem has been that Qadhaffi spent decades ensuring precisely that there is no such general in Libya
    Yep, he ensured there is nobody above the rank of Colonel in Libya. i doubt if there are any more colonels either. Anything below a colonel is all they have.

    This does not rule out foreigners helping though but thats going to be problematic.

  6. #66
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    I still remain unconvinced that the rebels either want or need our help, despite their current set back.
    Chimo

  7. #67
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Then why did the Libyan representative at the UN request the UNSC to be courageous and take decisive action to save his people. Its rare when a country's rep condems his own president at the UN.

    I agree it would be to the best if foreign intervention was left out.

  8. #68
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    It is obvious he represents no one but himself.
    Chimo

  9. #69
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    Look people, thus far, the combat actions are brigade level at best. Neither side has truly mobilized though it seems that Qaddafy got the 1st punch in but that is a far cry when both sides starting throwing 1000s, instead of 100s, into a battle and when that happens, Qaddafy is going to come up short.
    Chimo

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Look people, thus far, the combat actions are brigade level at best. Neither side has truly mobilized though it seems that Qaddafy got the 1st punch in but that is a far cry when both sides starting throwing 1000s, instead of 100s, into a battle and when that happens, Qaddafy is going to come up short.
    Sir, as far as I know, for decades the Libyan army has been purposely fragmented into individual battallions. The largest cohesive formations in the country appear to be brigade sized elements led by Qadhaffi's sons. There are a few generals who are nominally in charge of the different military regions but I don't think they have had actual command over the troops. From my understanding then, there is no longer a knowledge base for the establishment and operational command of larger sized military units on either side. Given the state of affairs, how quickly do you think we'll see larger scale battles?

  11. #71
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Never.The only thing both sides know is raiding.
    In the Chad battle the colonel spoke about,both sides ignored every tactical precept and charged each other with jeeps,as if they were camels.Since then the expertise and ''training'' went down,as you said.I doubt the black mercs can shoot better than the gangsta's,while the rebs have no effective training.If somehow,western troops,either mercs or SF get involved it will be a game changer.Until then,it's just another war between tribes,the old fashion way,IMO.
    Those who know don't speak
    Fools seem to be artificially made,'cause there's a hell lot of them and they have no disease

  12. #72
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Then its a stalemate, goes down to who can hold out the longest.

    Gaddafi sold 400k barrels of oil this week, he sold 440k last week, he's made $70 million already.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Mar 11, at 22:39.

  13. #73
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    I'm actually thinking the side that (re)discovers the firing line is going to be the winner.
    Chimo

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    If somehow,western troops,either mercs or SF get involved it will be a game changer.Until then,it's just another war between tribes,the old fashion way,IMO.
    I'm thinking they're in negotiation with a foreign former general. One who knows how to keep it, simple, stupid, ie trench warfare.
    Chimo

  15. #75
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I'm actually thinking the side that (re)discovers the firing line is going to be the winner.
    ok, so how do we respond if its Gaddafi's side ?

    Things can't go back to the good old days pre-uprisings.

    This scenario would be the cost of not doing anything. If we can live with it, then fine, otherwise...
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Mar 11, at 22:45.

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