No Fly Zone for Libya?

**troung** · 15 Mar 11,, 17:12

Your equating, sending troops in trucks, I don't know how many hour drive, eating and sleeping off the coffins of Bahrain.

They are about to gun down protesters in another nation, they don't like Libya so let them handle it.

How far is distance is bases?
What type of anti-radar suppression do they possess? SEAD.
What type of casualties could expect?
Tankers, to provide 24 hour CAP?
What airbases do they even have in theater?
How about INTELLIGENCE! They produce annual reports, on Libyan air defenses? They actually have OPLANS for such scenarios? .

The Arab league voted, let them handle it. Libya barely has an air force, I'm sure Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan could splash a MiG-23BN or Mirage F-1ED. Instead they are about to machine gun Shia in Bahrain.

You actually have a grassroots rebellion for democracy, some assistance - not direct intervetion (not right nor requested by the rebels), but heck some sort of lend-lease, is appropriate imo.

Shooting at a dictator doesn't mean you are George Washington. We should stay far away from this.

**Stitch** · 15 Mar 11,, 17:44

Originally Posted by ArtyEngineer

My gut feeling right now is that Quadaffi is going to prevail.

Regards

Arty

I agree; the momentum has shifted away from the rebels. In most modern situations, a rebellion/revolution needs to be successful in a week or two, or things tend to go back to the status quo. People (civilians) can only put up with the uncertainty and the upheaval for so long, and then they want things "to go back to normal", whatever normal is.

If this rebellion was going to be successful, it should've been successful last week; now, time favors the entrenched authority (i.e.: Gadaffi).

**troung** · 15 Mar 11,, 17:57

Going to take more than a NFZ.

Kadhafi's elite forces key to Libya conflict: experts

By Nick Morrison (AFP) – 22 hours ago

LONDON — Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi's elite forces hold the key to crushing the rebellion in the north African country as he can no longer count on the regular army, analysts said Monday.

Kadhafi's forces have won a string of victories in recent days as they move east from Tripoli, and were battling on Monday for Ajdabiya, a key town which the rebels have vowed to defend at all costs.

Dave Hartwell, a Middle East and north Africa analyst for IHS Jane's, the London-based defence information group, said Kadhafi's paramilitary unit, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, was seen as his most loyal forces.

"The revolutionary guard is about 3,000 strong, and we are confident that they are fighting at the moment," Hartwell told AFP.

"They have access to a variety of weapons, including battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers and helicopters."

Known as Liwa Haris al-Jamahiriya, the guard is hand-picked from Kadhafi's tribal region around the port town of Sirte, "and their main duty is to protect Kadhafi and his family," Hartwell said.

"They are pretty well knitted into the fabric of the regime."

Soviet-made battle tanks T72s, dating from the early 1970s, are the most modern vehicles available to Kadhafi's forces, the analyst said.

A second crack battalion, the Khamis Brigade commanded by Kadhafi's youngest son, Khamis, in theory has access to 260 of the tanks, though it is unclear how many are fully functional.

The regular Libyan army, meanwhile, numbered 45,000 before the rebellion started, but Hartwell said only a third are still fighting after several thousand either defected to the rebels or "just melted away."

"Loosely, we estimate that only 10,000-15,000 troops are loyal to Kadhafi -- but this is probably still enough to seize the initiative," Hartwell said.

Morale is probably improving due to victories over the rebels in the key towns of Zawiyah, Ras Lanuf and Brega, he said. "If they maintain the advance (in the east) of the country, that will continue to boost morale."

A 40,000-strong reserve force, or People's Militia, which have strong tribal links to Kadhafi, is another, "more ideological" asset that Kadhafi can call on, Hartwell said.

"Militarily it is not considered an effective force, but they have a stake in the preservation of the status quo," he said.

Gary Li, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said there were signs Kadhafi was altering his military strategy away from air attacks to more ground-based assaults.

"The forces that took Zawiyah last Friday were the dreaded Khamis Brigade, one of the best equipped of Kadhafi's forces," Li told AFP.

"Arguably even their tanks would have been vulnerable to RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) attacks from the lightly armed rebels but what seems to have been the deciding factor was artillery.

"The Kadhafi forces moved away from relatively ineffectual air attacks to more traditional ground based artillery barrages."

He said using artillery "smacks of desperation", but the psychological impact of artillery strikes on untrained volunteers "far outweigh actual damage -- which in itself was already considerable".

Li believes the change of tactics was a sign of Kadhafi's increasingly ruthless approach towards the rebels.

"I think the general feeling is that Kadhafi has abandoned any thoughts of possible reconciliation with the rebels and the gloves are now well and truly off so to speak," Li said.

"The employment of heavy artillery on his own people is ten times worse than air strikes."

He also conceded that a a no-fly zone would have "no impact" on an artillery-led battle.

Copyright © 2011 AFP. All rights reserved. More »

**rj1** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:05

Originally Posted by Dago

Nobody is on Gadaffi's side at the moment, from the outside, except for the odd number of African Mercenaries.

I tell you, the U.S. pulls out and leaves these countries to their own devices and see what happens, the Saudis and Iranians are having a proxy war in Bahrain and the Egyptians have sent troops across the border to help overthrow its neighbor's government when the side they're supporting is losing (so if Gaddafi wins, is he going to attack Egypt in response?).

(tongue partly in cheek)

**tankie** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:06

Soviet-made battle tanks T72s, dating from the early 1970s, are the most modern vehicles available to Kadhafi's forces, the analyst said.

A second crack battalion, the Khamis Brigade commanded by Kadhafi's youngest son, Khamis, in theory has access to 260 of the tanks, though it is unclear how many are fully functional.[QUOTE]

I would'nt have minded having a crack at his elite troops ,with chieftain or even cents

I also agree Troung with an earlier post/paste of yours ref let the Arab league deal with it ,,,, spot on ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, let them spend and die and sort their own crap ,,, oooops we need oil

**rj1** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:07

Originally Posted by gunnut

Dago: They lack the logistical capability.

Maybe they should have thought of that before.

**rj1** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:27

Originally Posted by Dago

They just lack experience.

I once worked at MCAS Cherry Point and have some interesting stories regarding rework of Egyptian F-4s.

That said, they do have experience unless their flight time declined dramatically in the decade since considering everything that had to be done those planes when they came in for rework. Expeditionary experience they may lack as does every country that doesn't have wars or contribute to multinational peacekeeping efforts, but they fly their planes.

**citanon** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:35

Originally Posted by troung

They are about to gun down protesters in another nation, they don't like Libya so let them handle it.

Everyone down there remembers who's giving them (all of the repressive governments) the money and arms (IE the evil West). If we help the Libyans, maybe the Arabs will forget about Bahrain. If not I'm sure we will have an equal share of the blood (and none of the good things happening in Egypt and Tunisia) on our hands. Now that Egypt and Tunisia are becoming more democratic, this renewed perception of our nefariousness will make things difficult for us in the region.

The Arab league voted, let them handle it. Libya barely has an air force, I'm sure Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan could splash a MiG-23BN or Mirage F-1ED. Instead they are about to machine gun Shia in Bahrain.

They are incompetent, do not have the logistics, have no confidence in victory, and have far too much to lose. They will not move (obviously).

Shooting at a dictator doesn't mean you are George Washington. We should stay far away from this.

Shooting a dictator and governing a city well makes you look pretty good. There's a chance of something good happening there if we step in with arms, training, organization, and airstrikes.

**rj1** · 15 Mar 11,, 18:52

Originally Posted by citanon

Everyone down there remembers who's giving them (all of the repressive governments) the money and arms (IE the evil West). If we help the Libyans, maybe the Arabs will forget about Bahrain. If not I'm sure we will have an equal share of the blood (and none of the good things happening in Egypt and Tunisia) on our hands. Now that Egypt and Tunisia are becoming more democratic, this renewed perception of our nefariousness will make things difficult for us in the region.

Office of Engineers I believed touched this earlier in the thread.

They are incompetent, do not have the logistics, have no confidence in victory, and have far too much to lose. They will not move (obviously).

FWIW, the Saudis and Emiratis did move into Bahrain.

Shooting a dictator and governing a city well makes you look pretty good. There's a chance of something good happening there if we step in with arms, training, organization, and airstrikes.

Shooting a dictator is easy. Have we figured out how to govern yet? And really it shouldn't be us governing anyway, it should be the Libyan opposition, whoever or whatever that is, and we have no idea how capable they are or are not, but if things go not so well they'll probably blame our presence just like Karzai did, a person that in reality owes everything he is to us appointing him king.

There's not enough time for training, the rebels can't organize amongst themselves and we shouldn't be in the business of kingmaking because that'll lead us to the same complaints as Afghanistan and Iraq and some aggrieved tribe upset we didn't pick them and hostilities there; so in effect our options we're left with are arms and airstrikes for a disorganized rebellion that's not well-trained. Lovely poker hand.

BBC article update on no-fly zone:

No-fly zone proposal?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12742858

The US, Russia and other EU countries had reacted cautiously to the no-fly zone proposal ahead of the Paris meeting.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton - who is attending the Paris meeting - has met a leader of the new opposition in Libya, Mahmoud Jibril, for 45 minutes at a Paris hotel and discussed ways the US could assist beyond humanitarian aid.

Divisions over any military intervention also emerged from a UN Security Council meeting on Monday.

A UN diplomat has said the plan is to circulate a draft resolution on Libya to Security Council members on Tuesday afternoon.

The BBC's Barbara Plett says it is expected to be in two parts, according to the diplomat.

The first will lay out what the Arab League wants in a no-fly zone and be presented by Lebanon, while the second will present tougher measures wanted by the international community, such as tightening sanctions and action against mercenaries, the diplomat said.

In effect this places the onus for the no-fly zone on the Arabs, apparently as a way to overcome divisions on the issue in the council, our correspondent says.

"It's important that the no-fly zone is seen as coming from the region rather than as a silver bullet from the West," the diplomat said, adding that Arab states would be expected to participate in implementing it, not just support it.

UN envoy Abdul Ilah Khatib travelled to Libya on Monday and met Foreign Minister Moussa Kusa in the capital, Tripoli.

In the meeting, Mr Khatib, a former Jordanian foreign minister, reiterated demands for an end to the violence and requested access for humanitarian groups, a UN spokesman said.

**troung** · 15 Mar 11,, 19:28

If we help the Libyans, maybe the Arabs will forget about Bahrain.

Or maybe we should stop the Saudis.

They are incompetent, do not have the logistics, have no confidence in victory, and have far too much to lose. They will not move (obviously).

Shouldn't be our problem.

Shooting a dictator and governing a city well makes you look pretty good. There's a chance of something good happening there if we step in with arms, training, organization, and airstrikes.

I think it is clear the rebel leadership couldn't manage a circle jerk. Unless we are prepared to invade Libya, defeat Querdaffi, and put the country in the hands of people one or two rungs down from the top in the last regime; we should stay home.

Libya's Civil War: Will Gaddafi Press On to Benghazi? - TIME

One of the most remarkable aspects of the rebellion is the utter lack of military leadership demonstrated by the roughly half a dozen senior officers who defected from Gaddafi — as well as the almost complete absence of the 12,000 troops in the east who laid down their arms at the beginning of the uprising. The most visible rebel fighters were volunteers, citizen guerrillas who took their own weapons, many raided from police and army depots, into battle and had to learn to man heavy weaponry on the job. If anything, the military officers seem to have devoted themselves more to political maneuvering than prudently preparing for the defense of the uprising. "This is basically how all revolutions turn out — revolutions never belong to the people that fight them, they belong to the people who manage to exploit the situation towards their own interest — and Libya is no different in that regard," says McGregor.

latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-rebels-20110313,0,2651426.story

There is little coherent rebel leadership. At military bases in Benghazi, self-described "colonels" in mismatched military uniforms smoke cigarettes in dilapidated offices, watching the war unfold on Al Jazeera, the satellite news channel.Special forces soldiers who defected from Kadafi's eastern army are now providing badly needed leadership, opposition spokesman Mustafa Gheriani said. But even as army regulars try to instruct civilian volunteers, the soldiers themselves have little or no combat experience.

Likewise, the businessmen and lawyers directing the rebel national council know little of military affairs. They refer reporters to an array of ever-shifting military spokesmen, few of whom spend any time at the front.

All week, spokesmen promised that tanks would arrive soon to save the day in Ras Lanuf. But the only tank visible on the road from Benghazi to the front Saturday was an ancient, rusting Soviet model. Teenaged boys played on the turret.

**Officer of Engineers** · 15 Mar 11,, 19:56

Originally Posted by troung

I think it is clear the rebel leadership couldn't manage a circle jerk. Unless we are prepared to invade Libya, defeat Querdaffi, and put the country in the hands of people one or two rungs down from the top in the last regime; we should stay home.

I have been saying that they don't need our help and it is obvious that they don't want our help no matter who is screaming sweet nothings into Hillary Clinton's ear.

The rebels can still win ... if they want to win but the first thing they need is unity. They need to find that before anything the outside world can do to help them.

**gf0012-aust** · 15 Mar 11,, 20:01

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The rebels can still win ... if they want to win but the first thing they need is unity. They need to find that before anything the outside world can do to help them.

without unity they have buckleys hope of developing battle rhythm....

**NeilE** · 15 Mar 11,, 21:10

Originally Posted by crooks

How long would it take to set up a no-fly zone? I heard a couple of weeks on the tv, if that's true then the rebels are in serious trouble. They need it now, or Benghazi could be 'the Libyan Guernica' by then, as someone else put it.

I reckon NATO have been taking the necessary steps to implement a no fly zone for awhile now. Something tells me that those captured British and Dutch marines were really sent to Libya gather intel and do reconnaissance for an upcoming operation. The current delay is down to preparation rather than indecisiveness in my opinion.

**Skywatcher** · 15 Mar 11,, 21:18

If this is even half true, does that mean we have to stop the opposition planes from flying?

Libyan website reports rebels sink Gaddafi ships

RABAT, March 15 | Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:53pm EDT

RABAT, March 15 (Reuters) - An opposition Libyan news website reported on Tuesday that rebels flying a MiG 23 warplane and a helicopter sank two pro-Gaddafi warships off the eastern coast near the town of Adjabiyah.

The Brnieq online newspaper quoted an unnamed airforce officer at the Benina airbase in Benghazi as saying the two aircraft also bombed an unspecified number of tanks near Brega and Ajdabiya, two towns that fell to pro-Gaddafi forces on Tuesday.

Libyan website reports rebels sink Gaddafi ships | Reuters

I detect Cairo's involvement, if the sinkings are true.

**gunnut** · 15 Mar 11,, 22:53

Gary Li, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said there were signs Kadhafi was altering his military strategy away from air attacks to more ground-based assaults.

"The forces that took Zawiyah last Friday were the dreaded Khamis Brigade, one of the best equipped of Kadhafi's forces," Li told AFP.

"Arguably even their tanks would have been vulnerable to RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) attacks from the lightly armed rebels but what seems to have been the deciding factor was artillery.

"The Kadhafi forces moved away from relatively ineffectual air attacks to more traditional ground based artillery barrages."

He said using artillery "smacks of desperation", but the psychological impact of artillery strikes on untrained volunteers "far outweigh actual damage -- which in itself was already considerable".

Li believes the change of tactics was a sign of Kadhafi's increasingly ruthless approach towards the rebels.

The Colonel called it. No fly zone is worthless because Kadhafi doesn't rely on air power like werstern forces do. If the rebels couldn't handle the air barrage of a couple of bombs a day, how could they handle the artillery attack?