Thread: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by Wayfarer

Whats your reasoning behind this

The republican house is doing everything it can to stop the economy from getting any worse. The private sector should react positively to grid lock in congress. There's still enormous drag on the economy with various regulations Obama put in place, but the pent up desire to spend should overcome it. Hence the small growth.

Originally Posted by Red Team

For the first I think it would depend on the match up:

Romney v Obama likely Obama
Cain v Obama...that's all up in the air.

Cain is not ready for prime time yet. His "simple" plan is getting picked apart.

What is the 9% corporate tax in the 9-9-9 plan? Is it 9% tax on income? Profit? Net? Gross? Is it a VAT on corporate spending?

Originally Posted by gunnut

...What is the 9% corporate tax in the 9-9-9 plan? Is it 9% tax on income? Profit? Net? Gross? Is it a VAT on corporate spending?

It's a tax on net profits, defined as Gross Sales-(COGS+Expenses) from US companies.

Near as I can tell.

Payrolls are not a deduction, but it replaces the payroll tax. So 9% on payrolls instead of 7.65% which is the current rate. This increase in payroll costs is offset by the lower rate on profits (as currently calculated with payroll costs as a deduction). Cap gains and dividends taxes are eliminated which is good for investments.

On balance it looks like a good deal for companies and investors.

The 9% sales tax makes up for the lost income taxes, and it helps offset the VAT differential that makes US companies uncompetetive in the global markets. It also collects taxes from the people who go under the radar, and it collects taxes from imports sold in the US.

That's a step in the right direction.

Assuming that pass-throughs are unchanged, I am for 9-9-9. But I object to the set-asides for "empowerment zones" (unless I happen to be in one, lol).

My prediction:

Obama loses by the largest electoral margin since Carter's spanking in 1980.
Repubs take Senate, but do not get a 60 seat threshold.
Repubs hold House, but lose a few seats.

we oughta set up some sort WAB betting mechanism, lol.

As always, bets seriously made on WAB will be made in multiples of Butter Cookie tins, or with donations to members of the Armed Forces, whether US or somewhere else.

Time to put your butter cookies where your mouths/fingers are. Gunnut, Astralis, troung, Red Team, highsea?

Originally Posted by bigross86

As always, bets seriously made on WAB will be made in multiples of Butter Cookie tins, or with donations to members of the Armed Forces, whether US or somewhere else.

Time to put your butter cookies where your mouths/fingers are. Gunnut, Astralis, troung, Red Team, highsea?

I'm up for it, butter cookies or other type of donations to the US military.

It doesn't have to be US military. I personally make donations to Lone Soldiers volunteering in the IDF.

Well, gunnut, how many tins you betting on your prediction?

I already have bets with astralis and Rosie, $20 phone cards for the troops.

They have Obama, I have the field.