Thread: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by dalem

The article you linked to contains one sentence backed by no numbers about Obama's opinion ratings.

-dale

"The disputes between the Republicans come as opinion polls show voters are responding well to Obama's push for his jobs bill. A poll from Quinnipiac University this week showed that 47 percent of Americans approve of Obama's job performance, up six percentage points from early October."

Damned near up to 50% according to the worthless poll. I say "worthless" because by and large most polls are manipulated. This looks to be the data: National (US) Poll * November 2, 2011 * American Voters Like Obama Bet - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut

From an outsider's perspective what I have seen so far from the contestants is their ability to turn on each other and offer up sound bites and rhetoric. If even one of them would put in writing a comprehensive list of exactly what they would do to solve what ails the country, and if those ideas were sound and valid, the contestant could separate themselves from the pack and be unstoppable in the primaries and general election. Instead they are content to play in the mud and pretend the voters are all stupid. "Show us your victories" is what the voter is interested in....we already know about everyone else's failures.

Originally Posted by YellowFever

It's not that uncommon for the pubs/dems to sort of "eat their own" during the primaries. It's the job of the guy sitting in the Oval Office to portray the "See, I'm better than them" image.

It's been going on as long as there were primaries. Nohing new here.

Dukakis suffered the "Willie Horton" fiasco and Bush Senior hammered that to the American public in the general elections but people forget it was brought up by Al Gore during the primaries.

Gore mentioned the furlough program but did not mention Horton by name. That was a policy issue and in my mind "fair game" It was the republicans who made Horton a household name in the general election and that pretty much sunk Dukakis. Now the republicans are making the same mistake, or even worse, dredging up personal issues. Anything brought up in the primaries is going to be used against you in the general election. I'd rather see a good role model in office, not the best mud slinger from the campaign trail.

Originally Posted by bonehead

"The disputes between the Republicans come as opinion polls show voters are responding well to Obama's push for his jobs bill. A poll from Quinnipiac University this week showed that 47 percent of Americans approve of Obama's job performance, up six percentage points from early October."

Damned near up to 50% according to the worthless poll. I say "worthless" because by and large most polls are manipulated. This looks to be the data: National (US) Poll * November 2, 2011 * American Voters Like Obama Bet - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut

From an outsider's perspective what I have seen so far from the contestants is their ability to turn on each other and offer up sound bites and rhetoric. If even one of them would put in writing a comprehensive list of exactly what they would do to solve what ails the country, and if those ideas were sound and valid, the contestant could separate themselves from the pack and be unstoppable in the primaries and general election. Instead they are content to play in the mud and pretend the voters are all stupid. "Show us your victories" is what the voter is interested in....we already know about everyone else's failures.

Leave it to me to miss the key graf.

I have to remember to stop posting right after I get up.

-dale

Originally Posted by dalem

Leave it to me to miss the key graf.

I have to remember to stop posting right after I get up.

-dale

Thats why my rule is, "coffee first, computer second".

Originally Posted by bonehead

Gore mentioned the furlough program but did not mention Horton by name. That was a policy issue and in my mind "fair game" It was the republicans who made Horton a household name in the general election and that pretty much sunk Dukakis. Now the republicans are making the same mistake, or even worse, dredging up personal issues. Anything brought up in the primaries is going to be used against you in the general election. I'd rather see a good role model in office, not the best mud slinger from the campaign trail.

Gore might have or might not have mentioned Horton by name and I'm too lazy so I don't want to go back in time to check so I'll take your word for it.

The point is these things have been going on for ages. This year is no different. That's not to say I condone it (in fact, if I could get away with it, I'd kick all their asses ) but I really see no difference between this year and any previous primaries...

Originally Posted by YellowFever

The point is these things have been going on for ages. This year is no different. That's not to say I condone it (in fact, if I could get away with it, I'd kick all their asses ) but I really see no difference between this year and any previous primaries...

Thats the point I have been making for years now. Its the same thing year in and year out. Both parties are nothing more than different sides of the same coin. Nothing of importance is going to change as long as the voters continue to suffer these two plagues(democrats/republicans) upon our nation. They want the voters to see only the present and not look into the long term trends the current system is leading us to.

Here is another log for the fire. Even Conservatives Think Republicans Are Sabotaging the Economy to Hurt Obama - Yahoo! News. This does beg the question," Do voters believe republicans are sabotaging the economy so they can get back in power and if so, will that sway how voters will vote next Nov."

Originally Posted by bonehead

Here is another log for the fire. Even Conservatives Think Republicans Are Sabotaging the Economy to Hurt Obama - Yahoo! News. This does beg the question," Do voters believe republicans are sabotaging the economy so they can get back in power and if so, will that sway how voters will vote next Nov."

Meh. The title leads one to believe that a majority of conservatives think so, or at least a plurality. Neither is the case. 1/3 of "conservatives" (as determined by the pollsters) and 1/4 of the repubs said yes.

Of course the dems will bark up that tree, no surprise there. More interesting is that 30% of dems DIDN'T agree with the premise.

Why didn't they try to factor out "liberals" in the same way they factored out "conservatives? Do I detect a liberal bias?

Your follow-up question should have been asked to try to parse the reason "conservatives" (as determined by the pollster) answered the way they did.

The corrolary is that 2/3 of conservatives and 3/4 of republicans do NOT agree that's the case. I'm part of that majority- I want repubs to be undoing the damage, not exacerbating it with more phony stimulus programs.

Originally Posted by NavyDoc

Ugh! So as not to qualify or get into a debate on some of these "Far out" ideas and opinions (sorry, it's the 70's still in me!), I thought I would get back to the point!
My GOP 2012 prediction:
Presidential nominee: Newt
VP nominee: Herman
additional prediction(s):
1) Obama will acquiesce to one Lincoln/Douglas style debate with Newt and them claim victory even though he will be emaciated.
2)There will be 5 more debates that the Dems will negotiate with the "left media"(MSNBC, NBC, CBS, CNN and one other). You can guess the slant they will present!
3) A number of "Independents" will take the majority away from the Dems in the Senate!
4) The end of the world that according to the Mayans will occur in December after the elections will be rescheduled. Al Gore will come out of his hiding place and say the "Global warming" has affected the Mayan time line!

And what are you wagering?