Thread: Trump guarentees Obama landslide

Originally Posted by astralis

if huntsman or pawlenty runs, then i would be worried about losing the butter cookies. i still don't think either would win, but it would be quite close.

if anyone else obama cleans up. if it's palin or bachmann obama wipes the floor with them.



i'm willing to bet a tin of butter cookies on this one, too. unemployment in 2012 will probably hover around 8.5% and falling, absent another serious war or ME crisis gas will be roughly at current rates, high chance that Gaddafi is ousted by year end. growth rate will be considerably higher than 1% (it was 2.7% in 2010).
i already have one ongoing bet with zraver re: inflation, although your guess of 6% inflation is rather lower than z's belief that we will be in hyperinflationary hell. it'll still be nowhere close to 6% though; it's 2.1% now.

Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7% - WSJ.com
They really try to spin that 7.7% would be a bad thing but coming off the heals of the worst economic downturn in 80 years I think that's a real stretch. With as has been said here predictions of 9 percent coming from the right 7.7 will seem all the more remarkable especially when mirrored of the right's the doom prognostications.

Originally Posted by highsea

Waita sec- I'm not going to bet on inflation numbers, that's a phony gov't statistic. My aluminum is already up 35% and SS even higher. Cattle on the hoof is up 50% from last year, but there is "no inflation".

I'll bet on barry getting the boot, and I'll bet on GDP growth less than 6%. Or both.

That is true. I just noticed items in the supermarket to be more expensive now than 1 year ago. I used to get chips for $3. Now it's $3.50 on sale. Local pizzaria just increased the prices of smoothies from $2.50 to $3.00. Let's not even venture into gasoline land.

Originally Posted by highsea

Waita sec- I'm not going to bet on inflation numbers, that's a phony gov't statistic. My aluminum is already up 35% and SS even higher. Cattle on the hoof is up 50% from last year, but there is "no inflation".

I'll bet on barry getting the boot, and I'll bet on GDP growth less than 6%. Or both.

Have we seen 6 percent gdp since Clinton?

Originally Posted by gunnut

That is true. I just noticed items in the supermarket to be more expensive now than 1 year ago. I used to get chips for $3. Now it's $3.50 on sale. Local pizzaria just increased the prices of smoothies from $2.50 to $3.00. Let's not even venture into gasoline land.

It's a standard formula used undfer both republican and democrat administrations.

Originally Posted by astralis

i'm willing to bet a tin of butter cookies on this one, too. unemployment in 2012 will probably hover around 8.5% and falling, absent another serious war or ME crisis gas will be roughly at current rates, high chance that Gaddafi is ousted by year end. growth rate will be considerably higher than 1% (it was 2.7% in 2010).

i already have one ongoing bet with zraver re: inflation, although your guess of 6% inflation is rather lower than z's belief that we will be in hyperinflationary hell. it'll still be nowhere close to 6% though; it's 2.1% now.

I'm preparing for the "worst" case scenario.

How about a tin of butter cookies on gas reaching $6 sometime in 2012? That would be the national average (as published by AAA) and not the obscene SF number or Hawaii prices.

Originally Posted by gunnut

I'm preparing for the "worst" case scenario.

How about a tin of butter cookies on gas reaching $6 sometime in 2012? That would be the national average (as published by AAA) and not the obscene SF number or Hawaii prices.

I'd expect it to be in the 5 plus range. Most "experts" were saying once the global recession was over they expected oil to shoot right back up.

Originally Posted by Roosveltrepub

Have we seen 6 percent gdp since Clinton?

Yeah, in Obama's budget projections.

Originally Posted by Roosveltrepub

I'd expect it to be in the 5 plus range. Most "experts" were saying once the global recession was over they expected oil to shoot right back up.

We should hit $5 by year's end. If recovery continues globally, we will see $6 gas next year. That, of course, also has something to do with prinint up money.

I will definitely see $5 a gallon before year's end.

Originally Posted by astralis

wanna make a butter cookie bet on this?

I'll see that bet AND raise you a tin.

If the election were held today, Trump would beat Obama in a landslide, 68 to 13 percent.

Newsmax Poll: Trump Overwhelms Obama, GOP Field in 2012 Race

AND

Paul Ryan Tops Tea Party Poll as Presidential Favorite

A Ryan-Rubio ticket is a winner over Obama in my opinion.

highsea,

I'll bet on barry getting the boot, and I'll bet on GDP growth less than 6%. Or both.

i'll bet on the former, not the latter. the latter is not likely to happen and has too many outside variables.

gunnut,

How about a tin of butter cookies on gas reaching $6 sometime in 2012? That would be the national average (as published by AAA) and not the obscene SF number or Hawaii prices

i would agree to that with two caveats, 1.) no major middle east war/OPEC interference and 2.) $6 for an extended period of time, say several months.

julie,

I'll see that bet AND raise you a tin.

okay, let's do a similar bet as the one i made to highsea: if obama loses in 2012 i owe you in a tin. if not, you owe me a tin.

and i'll buy you 10 tins if trump wins. that Newsmax poll was an "internet poll sponsored by Newsmax.com"...yeah...no way there's sampling/bias errors there...

Uh Julie, from your article:

An Internet poll sponsored by Newsmax.com reveals that Americans overwhelmingly favor Donald Trump as their preferred candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

An Internet poll is never representative, even more so when on a side that like newsmax which is aimed at very conservative readers. Obama would get trashed by anyone there, just like any GOP candidate would get trashed in a similar poll on, let's say moveon.org.

In the mean time I expect all the butter cookies to be sent to me to hold in safe keeping