Thread: Scozzafava bows out of NY 23 race

Scozzafava is what would be considered a liberal Republican, and recently here Conservative Party opponent, Doug Hoffman, has seen a groundswell of support among conservatives and national Republicans. Today, she bows out of the race.

Scozzafava bows out of NY 23 race

Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP's chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.

"In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record,” she said in a statement.

“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican.”

Her decision came as a Siena Research Institute poll released Saturday confirmed that her support has all but collapsed over the last month. In her statement, Scozzafava acknowledged that while her name will continue to appear on the ballot, “victory is unlikely.”

The Siena poll conducted Oct. 27-29, in line with other recent polls, showed Democrat Bill Owens holding a razor-thin lead over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 36 percent to 35 percent.

Scozzafava trailed far behind at 20 percent, with 9 percent of voters still undecided.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will now be throwing its support to Hoffman, after endorsing Scozzafava and deriding the Conservative Party candidate in statements throughout much of the race.

The fortunes of Scozzafava and Hoffman had nearly flipped over the last month as national attention focused on the upstate New York race, which has become a rallying point for grassroots conservatives.

Conservatives have assert that Scozzafava, a GOP establishment-backed state assemblywoman who supports abortion rights and gay marriage, is far too liberal for them to support and numerous prominent GOP figures have recently endorsed Hoffman.

Scozzafava, who in the beginning of the month was the frontrunner with a 7-point lead over Owens in an Oct. 1 Siena poll, saw her support crater while Hoffman surged from a distant third place to a virtual tie in the polls with Owens.

With Scozzafava slipping in the polls and her candidacy dividing the GOP, national Republicans began hedging their bets on her campaign and have recently signaled that they would no longer actively resist Hoffman’s candidacy.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) told POLITICO Thursday that he would welcome Hoffman “with open arms.” On Friday, Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele told POLITICO that a Hoffman victory is essentially a Republican Party victory.

“You’ve got two Republicans running in that race. My upside is that one of them will likely win,” Steele said. “We want to be supporting the one that wins.”

“He would be very welcome, with open arms,” Sessions told POLITICO in an interview off the House floor.

The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.

One Republican strategist familiar with the race said Scozzafava’s departure from the race significantly increased the GOP’s chances of holding the seat left vacant by the resignation of GOP Rep. John McHugh.

“Republicans and Independents will now be able to unite behind one candidacy. Dede's last base of support was among Republican loyalists. They likely overwhelmingly switch to Hoffman,” the strategist said. “As a practical matter, this lets the GOTV operations of two campaigns merge into one - makes a huge mechanical difference in a special election.”

Hoffman echoed that sentiment in a statement Saturday.

“This morning’s events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked candidate, Bill Owens. At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me,” he said. “It’s time for us to send a message to Washington—we’re sick and tired of big-spending, high-taxing, career politicians and by voting for me on Tuesday you will send that message loud and clear.”

Recognizing that a two-candidate race increased the chances that Republicans would hold on to the seat, a senior Democrat said the party will work to get Scozzafava to endorse Owens in an attempt to pick up some of her moderate supporters.

"If we don't get her on board we lose," said the Democrat.

Another senior Democrat said it the situation is still too fluid to come to any conclusions.

"Unpredictable this late – she's a very well known elected official and she remains on the ballot so she'll likely pull some votes but it's hard to say how many," the official said.

Scozzafava bows out of NY-23 race - Charles Mahtesian - POLITICO.com