Thread: The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.

Originally Posted by astralis

there are three problems with this,

first is

so we don't know what the percentages of US-made guns were there.

Sampling and statistics. Assuming the crooks don't pick out certain guns to commit crimes with, and I doubt they know if a gun in their possession is traceable, we have to believe the pattern is random enough to arrive at a decent accuracy.

Originally Posted by astralis

and second part is what AG touches on,

so we don't know what the percentages of US-made guns were in the "unsuccessfully traced" categories.

finally, guns that remain in the hands of the drug cartel. for some reason i don't think anyone's gone and asked them in a scientific way for an inventory of guns and where they acquired them.

those three items throw off accuracy. i agree that the percentage is not 90%, but it's certainly considerably more than 15.3%, or 17%.

How can a gun made in the US, legally, be unsuccessfully traced? If it's a S&W then it's an American gun. It's not made any where else in the world with that brand. It doesn't matter if the serial number is filed off. If it can't be traced to US origins, that means someone not in our system made it. Banning guns in this country won't affect it.

gunnut,

Sampling and statistics. Assuming the crooks don't pick out certain guns to commit crimes with, and I doubt they know if a gun in their possession is traceable, we have to believe the pattern is random enough to arrive at a decent accuracy.

sure, but it's not included in that analysis.

How can a gun made in the US, legally, be unsuccessfully traced? If it's a S&W then it's an American gun. It's not made any where else in the world with that brand. It doesn't matter if the serial number is filed off. If it can't be traced to US origins, that means someone not in our system made it. Banning guns in this country won't affect it.

then the question remains, how can a gun be unsuccessfully traced in the first place?

Originally Posted by astralis

gunnut,

sure, but it's not included in that analysis.

then the question remains, how can a gun be unsuccessfully traced in the first place?

Not sure. We need more information and statistics from the ATF. Especially on the methods used for tracing and the results expected. Did they want to trace to an individual buyer? Or merely the country of origin? Or something in between.

agreed. either way, 90% or whatever figure the fox analysts came up with, it's bad statistics in action.