Divide the party and the Clintons lose in the general election, bill out foxes himself way to go slick.
So have Hillary and Bill managed to create a racial divide in the Democratic Party as alleged by many pundits? Is there going to be a "white backlash" against Obama for his heavy support among African-Americans?
Racial divide could hurt Obama beyond SC - Yahoo! NewsRacial divide could hurt Obama beyond SC
AP - The questions surrounding Barack Obama's victory in South Carolina: Was the split between white and black voters an anomaly in a state were the Confederate flag still flies on the statehouse grounds? Or has the Clinton campaign successfully marginalized him as the "black candidate?"
What's clear is that for Obama to win the nomination, he will have to improve his performance among white voters. Being the clear favorite among blacks won't be enough as the candidates turn to 22 states that hold contests on Feb. 5.
Obama's overwhelming victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton came with 80 percent of South Carolina's black voters backing him, but only a quarter of whites. Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards each got about a third of the white vote.
That's a division Obama will have to close if he is to win the nomination.
"The choice in this election is not between regions or religions or genders," Obama said in his victory speech Saturday night, delivered with mostly white supporters seated behind him. "It's not about rich versus poor, young versus old, and it is not about black versus white. It's about the past versus the future."
Obama has proven that he has appeal among whites. He won Iowa, one of the whitest states in the country, and won more than a third of white voters in multi-candidate contests in New Hampshire and Nevada even though Clinton won both states.
But that changed in South Carolina. The state delivered a stunning rejection to Hillary Rodham Clinton and perhaps even more so her husband, famously regarded as the "first black president." The black voters of South Carolina said they wanted Obama in the White House instead of another Clinton.
Bill Clinton was the one who worked the state all week long as Obama's chief critic, even as his wife turned her attention to the states voting on Feb. 5 in anticipation of the loss. Voters listened more than half said the former president's campaigning was an important factor in their decision, according to exit polls collected by The Associated Press and television networks. But people who said Bill Clinton's campaigning made a difference in their vote still supported Obama.
Among those voters was Iris Gladden, a self-described news junkie and black voter who lives in rural Timmonsville, S.C. She struggled all year to decide whether to support Clinton or Obama. She said the decision was made when she heard Bill Clinton lambaste Obama for his position on the Iraq war. She said she was offended by the Clintons' air of entitlement and cast her vote Saturday for Obama.
"He said, `Give me a break, is this a fairy tale,'" Gladden said. "Even when he was advised to cut down on it, he didn't. Based on that negativity, I made up my mind."
Asked whether Bill Clinton hurt his wife's candidacy, South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn said, "I don't know whether he hurt it or not, but I don't think it was very helpful. I know the early polls I saw a months ago, she was leading Obama in the state by double digits. So something happened."
Clyburn said the campaign should move away from race now to talk about the future of the country.
"I think those people that were campaigning, drawing attention to this man's race and trying to get him off message, I think those people were rejected tonight," Clyburn said.
But however much Bill Clinton may have hurt his wife's candidacy, his effort may also have hurt Obama's image as a candidate who can cross racial lines.
Bill Clinton suggested that Obama's victory was an indicator of black support and not of real strength. "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88," the former president said Saturday as voters went to the polls. "Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."
For example, black voters were just 8 percent of the turnout in the California Democratic primary four years ago. They were 15 percent in Missouri, 20 percent in New York, 23 percent in Tennessee and 47 percent in Georgia all states that are among those that will vote 10 days after South Carolina.
"He won fair and square," Bill Clinton said of Obama Saturday night. "Now we go to February 5 when millions of Americans finally get in the act."
Divide the party and the Clintons lose in the general election, bill out foxes himself way to go slick.
This time, the Democrats have an inspirational candidate with starpower, Barack Obama. Lacking the anti-Bush sentiment to bring them together after all the vitriol and acrimony I don't thing the Democrats' memories in 2008 are going to be as short as they were in 2004. If McCain wins the nomination I see a significant portion of independents who support Obama and even a percentage of Democrats lining up behind him.
I give this a less than 50/50 chance, but what if the democrats lose again in November?
"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.
Obama won't win - his position is hopeless. But if he will damage Hillary's reputation and her aura of invincibility, so that will only benefit the Republicans. However, if McCain wins the nomination, then there will nothing to choose between him and Hillary Clinton - both being liberals.
It’s the demographics, stupid: The black candidate won the black vote. The white woman won white women. The white man won white men.Iowa, where Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won women and whites, seems a world away.
The Democratic coalition now seems to be split by little more than the color and gender of its voters. It has been decades since the political left has faced such crass intraparty demographic divides.
Still, exit polls conducted by The Associated Press and the television networks reveal that Obama’s success in South Carolina may have been because of blacks but it was not limited to them.
He won eight in 10 African Americans. But he also won independents, moderates, youth — and 27 percent of white men and 22 percent of white women.
There is no mistaking, however, that just as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York could not have won New Hampshire or Nevada without the overwhelming support of white women, Obama could not have won South Carolina without the overwhelming support of blacks.
He won the same percentage of African Americans that he did in Nevada last week. But blacks cast 15 percent of the votes in Nevada — and more than half of the votes in South Carolina.
That white voters split between the three leading Democratic candidates made the black vote especially consequential.
Obama also benefited from a lack of gender gap between black men and black women, with both backing him equally. Clinton had hoped that her outsized strength among white women might translate to their black counterparts.
Black women were the largest bloc of voters Saturday night, roughly three in 10. Black men made up roughly two in 10. Clinton did win those blacks who did not support Obama.
Obama won every level of income and education and beat Clinton handily among voters who named Iraq, the economy and health care as their most important concerns.
In Nevada a week ago, Clinton and Obama split voters who prioritized the economy and Iraq; Clinton won those who said health care.
In South Carolina, Obama won on all three issues by 20 to 30 points.
Regardless of how the electorate is cut, South Carolina was a story of race. As recently as early December, Clinton was competing for the black vote.
A third of voters said they decided whom to support in the last month. That shift proved the load-bearing wall of Obama’s victory.
Exit polls also revealed that race permeated not only votes but outlook, as well. Six in 10 Obama voters thought the country was ready for a black president, three times the amount who supported other Democrats.
But half of Clinton’s voters said the country was “not ready” for a black president, while a quarter of John Edwards' and Obama's voters said the same.
Obama also won the vast majority of the quarter of voters who thought the country was not ready for a female president.
The African American vote was so strongly tilted in Obama’s favor that Clinton’s traditional strengths — including the support of white women and on issues such as health care — were effectively negated.
It was only among voters 65 and older that Clinton defeated Obama, 40 to 32 percent. The senior vote also made up nearly a fifth of voters Saturday night, providing a vital base that allowed Clinton to remain competitive in South Carolina.
Only the young transcended racial lines. Obama won more than 65 percent of voters under 29 years old. He did it in large part because he won half of the white youth vote. In fact, white youth were twice as likely to support Obama as were whites between 30 and 59 years of age.
That could be because young voters pay less attention to race in deciding who to support, but young voters have also long been the base of support for the insurgent candidate, from Eugene McCarthy to Howard Dean, who challenges the party favorite.
But once again, the power of the youth vote did not match the hype. They made up 13 percent of the electorate, continuing a decline in youth turnout since its high point in Iowa.
For all the chatter about Obama's challenges in reaching beyond the black and youth vote, Clinton faces her own demographic hurdles.
No factor was more crucial to Clinton’s defeat in South Carolina than the small turnout of white women — 27 percent, compared with 38 percent in Nevada and more than half of the electorate in New Hampshire.
White women are the largest bloc of Democratic voters, but black voters remain a sizable portion of the electorate Clinton will face over the next month. Her strength with Hispanics may partially counterbalance her weaknesses with African Americans, which is what occurred in Nevada.
But Clinton continues to have problems with Democratic white men.
Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, ended up winning 44 percent of white men, the first time he won this bloc during the 2008 primaries.
Clinton has lost Democratic white men in three of the first four contests.
Part of Obama’s strength has been that he won Democratic white men twice. In the coming Feb. 5 contests, when more than 20 states will vote, retaking this white male bloc will be vital for Obama. But so will winning young women and again dominating the black vote.
In comparison, Clinton’s front-runner status depends on holding together every generation of white women, remaining competitive with white men and winning Hispanics.
The exit polls: Why Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com
"We Shall Never Surrender" Winston Churchill
How do you think the general election shakes out if Bloomberg and Paul run on independent tickets?
I like the McCain-Lieberman ticket. If Hillary doesn't make it, I'm going with McCain anyway.
why are you for mccain? his positions are quite different from hillary's. if i remember correctly, you weren't a real big fan of free trade?
The human mind cannot grasp the causes of phenomena in the aggregate. But the need to find these causes is inherent in mans soul. And the human intellect, without investigating the multiplicity and complexity of the conditions of phenomena, any one of which taken separately may seem to be the cause, snatches at the first, the most intelligible approximation to a cause, and says: This is the cause!"
War and Peace
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