Thread: Predicting the '08 Race

Guys, I keep telling you: It'll be whoever gets their name on the Democratic ticket. If for no other reason than they're not a Republican.

Unless something really drastic happens that makes the GOP look good or the Democrats look bad in the next year - and even that is no guarantee - I think it's pretty safe to say that Republicans are going to get thrown out of the White House in '08.

Originally Posted by kmchugh

Keep watching Fred Thompson.

I seen him today on television. He was pale and sickly looking. He's too old. He looks as if he has one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel.

[QUOTE=kmchugh;402827]By and large, I'd say the American public are wary of the woman. She is currently painting herself as a fairly right-wing Democrat. However, past actions have most people believing that her real beliefs lie somewhere left of Karl Marx.

As a campaigner she's a Bill Clinton clone and Bill is the surrogate candidate. If she is elected, he won't be sitting her lap, but he'll be a bedside table away. She can't ignor the advice of one of the smartest polticians in the country, even if he is her hubby.

If the Republicans and their supporters stay away from negative statements on gender which would only get her more votes from alienated women, Hillary will probably lose (if nominiated), first and foremost because she's a woman and most women in this country do not, for some reason, like her. Oddly enough many women I talk to oppose Iraq but hold her in contempt for flip flopping. It looks crassly political to them. But their dislike also goes beyond politics to something I can't define...it's a woman thing. Granted a lot of heavyweight women are behind her and she would do well in the big northern cities and in N California, but in between, she has a tough row to hoe.

Up to this point, polling has indicated that she's probably going to win the Democratic nomination. Polling also indicates that she can't get elected.

I haven't seen how the polls break down. I think the way the media has set up the campaign as a Obama-Clinton race for first place, plays into Edward's hand. An Edwards-Obama ticket would be a powerhouse. Both were against Iraq from the gitgo. Obama has to consider what it would like to be Hillary's number 2 with the shadow of her politically-astute husband looming over everything. My favorite is Chris Dodd just because he's a genuine healer and heaven knows we're going to need one down the road.

On the GOP side, Huckabee is coming on. Number 2 in the Iowa caucuses.
Thompson could trip fast if he tries to play Washington outsider. I'd hate to see that since he has some good ideas about fixing Social Security.

Another whole year of this. geez.

Originally Posted by TopHatter

Guys, I keep telling you: It'll be whoever gets their name on the Democratic ticket. If for no other reason than they're not a Republican.

Unless something really drastic happens that makes the GOP look good or the Democrats look bad in the next year - and even that is no guarantee - I think it's pretty safe to say that Republicans are going to get thrown out of the White House in '08.

Top,

I sort of disagree with you. First the downside. The dems were handed a majority in Congress last time around with the decisive margin coming from anti-war voters. The dems haven't delivered a withdrawal so far; never mind the reasons. If we are still emeshed in Iraq in November 08 like we are today, Katie bar the door. The dems will probably get the presidency as a companionpiece to go with their control of the Congress. With both branches covered, the anti-war segment gets its wish, so it thinks. And if it demands assurances, Edwards will accommodate them.

Now the upside. If Iraq is looking a lot better at this time next year, voters may do the classic split: giving one party Congress and the other the presidency. Why? Fear of higher taxes and expensive social programs. So, it may all boil down to Iraq.

Originally Posted by JAD_333

Top,

I sort of disagree with you. First the downside. The dems were handed a majority in Congress last time around with the decisive margin coming from anti-war voters. The dems haven't delivered a withdrawal so far; never mind the reasons.

Regardless of what happens between now and '08 I really do think that the past several years of war, combined with the whole "Bush Lied" mantra about WMD's have sealed the GOP's presidential doom. Not to mention I'm still failing to see a Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton amongst the Republicans, somebody who commands a widespread appeal to the party faithful and beyond.

I'm thinking of what happened to the British Conservative Party in 1945. Their missteps and misdeeds during the mid-late 1930's (among other things) led to a stunning and massive Labour victory...despite Churchill's strong wartime leadership.

Originally Posted by TopHatter

Regardless of what happens between now and '08...

Don't forget Rudy "papa" Giuliani

Originally Posted by TopHatter

Regardless of what happens between now and '08 I really do think that the past several years of war, combined with the whole "Bush Lied" mantra about WMD's have sealed the GOP's presidential doom. Not to mention I'm still failing to see a Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton amongst the Republicans, somebody who commands a widespread appeal to the party faithful and beyond.

Bush lied mantra? Bush ain't running.

True. No GOP stars yet. But try imagining some matchups from the POV of looks, e.g., Romney vs Clinton. A lot can happen in a 14 months.

I'm thinking of what happened to the British Conservative Party in 1945. Their missteps and misdeeds during the mid-late 1930's (among other things) led to a stunning and massive Labour victory...despite Churchill's strong wartime leadership.

Banish the thought. Appeasement, failure to take early action against a major threat, not modernizing the military...those were the sins of the Conservative Party pre WWII. No way you can pin them on Bush or the Republicans. If the Republicans are going to be accused of anything it will be the opposite: pre-emption. Like they say, you're damned if you don't and you're damned if you do. Actually, by drawing the contrast between pre-WWII dawdling, and its terrible outcome, and Bush's 2003 quick response to the threat, the GOP has a counter to your argument.

Thompson is already pulling ahead of Guiliani in the polls.