SACRAMENTO — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his top advisors, meeting privately to plan an agenda for his second year in office, may call a special election that could upend the state's political order, redrawing legislative and congressional district boundaries, curbing spending and revamping the bureaucracy.
Schwarzenegger would embrace various ballot measures that would be voted on in a special election and bill them as a "reform" package meant to make Sacramento more accountable.
The governor has not yet agreed to call an election, and there are tactical reasons why he may be reluctant.
Schwarzenegger may first try to see which pieces of his plan he can push through the Democratic-controlled Legislature, according to members of his political team. And he could use the prospect of an election as leverage to persuade lawmakers to yield — a tactic he has employed successfully in the past.
Still, in a recent interview during a trade mission to Tokyo, Schwarzenegger hinted strongly that he favored going directly to the voters, the expectation being that lawmakers would be hostile to some of the changes he wants to impose. He said he would spend much of December deciding how to proceed.
Pressure is coming from the governor's Republican allies in the Legislature, who want him to push forward with a special election in the latter half of 2005.
Under state law, the governor has the power to call an election, but must do so at least five months before the election date. So to hold an election in October, the governor would have to call for it in May.
"The people really want reform," Schwarzenegger said. "We're going to plan it carefully so we're going to continue making progress and having the people on our side and not overwhelming them with too much garbage."
Asked if he thought Schwarzenegger would stage such an election, Senate GOP leader Dick Ackerman (R-Irvine), who is scheduled to meet with the governor next week, said: "If I were a betting man, I'd say yes."
Democratic leaders are wary of Schwarzenegger's intentions. They contend that his aim to change how legislative district boundaries are set is a backhanded effort to stack the Legislature with more Republicans.
The minority party picked up no seats in Sacramento in the Nov. 2 election despite extensive campaigning by Schwarzenegger.
New district boundaries can transform the state's political makeup. Depending on how the lines are drawn and who holds the pencil, more Democrats or Republicans, liberals or conservatives may find it easier to run and win.
Some Republicans may oppose any move to upset a status quo in which they are virtually assured of winning reelection. But Schwarzenegger and other Republican leaders say a new map would create more competitive seats, which could cause Democratic legislative and congressional majorities in California to dwindle.
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez (D-Los Angeles) said Schwarzenegger's repeated use of the ballot — where his popularity with voters is a potent weapon — amounts to a disdain for representative government, where policymaking power rests with elected officials.
Working through the Legislature "is the most reasonable way to solve problems, unless we believe the form of government we have in this state absolutely stinks and we no longer are a modern democracy," Nuñez said. He called on the governor to pursue a legislative "vetting" of his plan, as opposed to "just saying I'm going to the voters and spending $40 million [on a special election] so they can vote on my proposals."
As Schwarzenegger's aides and his outside political team weigh strategy, various interest groups are preparing initiatives that could wind up as key parts of the governor's agenda.
Ted Costa, a Sacramento anti-tax activist who drew up the original petition to recall Gov. Gray Davis, has been cleared to gather signatures for a measure that would profoundly alter the way California elects its congressional and legislative delegations.
For years, critics have complained that lawmakers from both parties have carved districts with one aim in mind: protecting incumbents. In last month's election, not a single legislative incumbent was ousted, while the typical margin of victory exceeded 30%.
Costa's constitutional amendment would strip lawmakers of the power to draw districts and give it instead to a panel of retired judges chosen by a bipartisan group of legislative leaders.
In the interview, Schwarzenegger said he favored such an approach.
Republican leaders say they are eager to see the change carried out as quickly as possible, so that districts are redrawn before the decennial census in 2010. That could potentially give Schwarzenegger a more cooperative Legislature to work with, assuming he is reelected in 2006.
"The problem we have in California is we allow elected officials to draw the lines. That's inherently wrong," said Assembly Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield. "You're allowing the people who are running for office to draw the lines so they can predetermine the districts they can run in."
Twelve states already rely on external boards or commissions to draw electoral lines. But none uses retired judges in the way Costa's measure envisions, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Another part of the governor's package might be a hard spending limit aimed at avoiding future budget deficits. Schwarzenegger campaigned for a strict spending cap during the recall, but compromised in the face of determined Democratic resistance and the size of the budget cuts that would be needed to meet such a cap. Ultimately, he won legislative backing for a softer balanced-budget measure, which voters enacted in March.
Republican John Campbell, an Irvine assemblyman who won election to the Senate in November, is co-sponsoring a proposed ballot initiative that would set spending at current levels and tie changes to fluctuations in population, plus inflation. Campbell estimated that it could take five months to collect the necessary signatures, a process that could begin after the state attorney general clears the measure for petition gathering, possibly later this month.
Republican legislative leaders said they supported Campbell's measure and would urge Schwarzenegger to do the same.
"The governor has not taken a position on it yet," Campbell said.
Having invested enormous resources to come up with his California Performance Review — a proposed top-to-bottom overhaul of California's bureaucracy — Schwarzenegger is also expected to push for adoption of at least some of those suggested reforms, if not the entire package.
The review has spawned its own bureaucracy. Initial recommendations were contained in a 2,500-page report drawn up by more than 275 state employees, consultants and administration officials. Then the governor appointed a separate 21-member panel to hold hearings on the report.
That panel in turn submitted a 500-plus page study of its own.
Schwarzenegger's office has been sorting through the recommendations to see what it could adopt by executive fiat, what would be suitable for legislative action and what should be placed on the ballot.
Less certain is a push for a part-time Legislature. Anti-tax activist Costa also has put forward a ballot initiative that would convert the Legislature to part-time status. But even though Schwarzenegger has occasionally mused about such a measure, he has been coy about whether he really wants to see that happen. He conceded that he uses the threat to "drive them nuts upstairs" where the Legislature meets in the Capitol.
A political advisor to the governor, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "I'm not telling you it's dead, but it's not been part of the conversation."
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