Thread: Republicans May Add to Lead Among Governors as 11 States Vote

Republicans may add to the 28 governorships they currently control, giving the party a greater edge in raising money and promoting candidates for other jobs from judges to lawmakers.

Democrats currently hold six of the 11 statehouses at stake this year. Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said they are likely to maintain control in Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia, while Republican incumbents should prevail in Vermont and North Dakota.

That leaves six races, three currently controlled by each party, that she rated as ``toss-ups'': Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, Utah and Washington.

Republicans hope to win five of the six, giving them 30 states. ``Thirty is a magic number because it gives you political critical mass,'' said Wayne Berman, former finance chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a Washington-based lobbyist. ``It enhances what the party can do in terms of fund- raising and organizing in every region of the country.''

Since the Democrats must win a majority of the 11 races just to maintain the current 28-22 split, ``we've got the higher bar to get over,'' said B.J. Thornberry, executive director of the Democratic Governors' Association. Even so, she said, ``It's highly unlikely that the Republicans are going to get to 30 in this election. The more likely scenario is we gain or stay at the status quo.''

A Majority Since 1995

Republicans have held a majority of the states' chief executive posts since 1995, after Democrats controlled more than 25 for the previous 24 years, according to the Republican governors' group.

``Republican governors are really the foundation for other races and other campaigns,'' said Ohio Governor Bob Taft, chairman of the association. ``Governors can build the capacity of the party from the grassroots all way up to having skilled, trained, experienced people who have run successful statewide campaigns.''

Two former aides to President George W. Bush are among the Republican hopefuls in toss-up states. In Indiana, Bush's first budget director, Mitch Daniels, is trying to oust Democrat Joe Kernan, who assumed the office when his predecessor died. In Utah, Jon Huntsman Jr., a former U.S. ambassador and trade negotiator, faces Democrat Scott Matheson, whose father was Utah's last Democratic governor, serving from 1977 to 1985.

Republican Leads

In the Indiana race, an Oct. 10-12 poll conducted by the South Bend Tribune newspaper and WSBT-TV showed Daniels leading by a margin of 46 percent to 43 percent. In Utah, two polls released Oct. 6 both showed Huntsman leading -- by 49 percent to 33 percent in a Salt Lake Tribune survey, and 49 percent to 40 percent in a Desert Morning News/KLS-TV poll.

In Missouri, Republican Matt Blunt, the secretary of state and son of U.S. House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, faces State Auditor Claire McCaskill, who beat Governor Bob Holden in the Democratic primary. Blunt held a one percentage-point lead in a Sept. 20 poll by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV.

In New Hampshire, first-term incumbent Republican Craig Benson faces Democrat John Lynch, the former head of admissions at Harvard Business School who until 2001 was chief executive of furniture maker Knoll Inc. Governors serve only two-year terms in New Hampshire, as opposed to four-year terms elsewhere; no first- term governor has been unseated in the state since 1918. An Oct. 16-18 poll by American Research Group gave Benson a 6 percentage- point lead, 50 percent to 44 percent.

Washington Governor Gary Locke, a Democrat, and Montana Governor Judy Martz, a Republican, both chose not to run for re- election this year. In Washington, Democratic Attorney General Christine Gregoire is facing Republican Dino Rossi, a former state senator, who is seeking to become the first Republican governor since 1985. An Ipsos-Public Affairs poll taken Sept. 17- 20 put Gregoire ahead by 49 percent to 43 percent.

Schweitzer Ahead

In Montana, rancher and former U.S. Senate candidate Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat, faces Republican Secretary of State Bob Brown. Two polls showed Schweitzer leading, but by differing margins -- 15 points in an Oct. 7-10 poll by the University of Montana-Billings, 4 points in a Sept. 26 Lee Newspapers survey. Montana hasn't had a Democratic governor in 15 years.

The Democratic governors' group out spent the Republicans in the third quarter, according to filings with the Internal Revenue Service, with expenditures of $6.4 million compared with $5.5 million for the Republicans. The Democrats, however, had less in contributions, raising $5.1 million compared with $5.9 million for the Republicans.

Republicans have raised $13.8 million through the first three quarters of the year, about 37 percent more than the $10.1 million for the Democrats. The Republicans spent $8.4 million over those nine months, about 8 percent less than the Democratic group, which spent $9.1 million.

Worried Democrats

``Democrats have to be a little worried,'' said Julian Zelizer, a professor of modern American politics at Boston University. ``The Republican governors since the '90s have been a source of innovation for the national party, and have made inroads in solid Democratic states.''

Republicans also have made inroads in state legislatures. In the 2002 election, Republicans passed Democrats in control of state legislative seats for the first time in more than 50 years, according to the non-partisan National Conference of State Legislatures.

Republicans now control 21 state legislatures, while the Democrats control 17 and 11 states have chambers controlled by both parties. Nebraska has a unicameral and non-partisan legislature.

Almost 80 percent of legislative seats are up for election in 44 states this year. The Denver-based legislators' group says that 23 states have either a senate within three seats of a party change or a lower chamber within five seats.

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