My thoughts? I completely agree with your summary. One could add a few more examples. I was a little thrown off that you used a 'fiscal' year rather than a calendar year. So, really it's the most critical 12 month period. Works for me.
It seems to me the cards were clearly not in the favor of the Confederacy as far back as 1862, early 1863, and the only good argument the Confederacy had to continue the fight was to force a negotiated settlement. But once the scales tipped decisively in favor of the Union, say mid-1864, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The bloodbath should have ended then.