When Was the American Civil War a Done Deal?

**Shek** · 13 Nov 09, 01:21

Lee surrendered on 9 April 1865.
Johnston surrendered on 3 May 1865.

However, it was clear before then that it was only a matter of time until the North would win. At what point was it inevitable that the South could not win?

I'd date it to the re-election of Lincoln. Once he was secure in office with a veto proof GOP majority, there was nothing that was going to stop Grant and Sherman. Your thoughts?

**Stitch** · 13 Nov 09, 01:36

I don't know nearly as much as you guys do about the American Civil War, but I would have to say the turning point came with the Battle Of Gettysburg in 1863; after that, the result of the War was inevitable, with the change of momentum from the South to the North, and the Union's continually increasing output of mean & materiel. It was just a matter of time from then on for the North to defeat the South. I believe the pivotal moment was the Battle Of Gettysburg; if the North had been defeated, I think a negotiated peace would have been possible for the South after that, with a possible partition of the country resulting from the negotiations.

**Albany Rifles** · 13 Nov 09, 01:58

I would say on 1 SEP 1864. Atlanta fell in the West on that day. It was the Fall of Atlanta which provided the key to Lincoln's election success. Mobile fell to Farragut's forces as part of the battles of Mobile Bay.

In the East Grant had Lee pinned into the Petersburg-Richmond line. Lee was decisively engaged and had no ability to maneuver on higher than the tactical level. 2 of the 4 routes into Petersburg were cut and the Army of the Potomoac had weathered the near crippling loss of units having their enlistments run out. After August it only grew stronger with fresh units.

In the Shenandoah Valley Jubal Early is about to be run to ground by Phil Sheridan. In 7 weeks his Early's army would cease to exist.

In the Trans Mississippi Sterling Price's Missouri Raid is coming to its ignominious conclusion.

Oh, the Democrats nominate McClellan...just about assuring Lincoln reelection!!

**Blue** · 13 Nov 09, 03:17

I didn't know it was over......

**Tarek Morgen** · 13 Nov 09, 03:24

Despite being a civil war, i think it can be said that it was a "clausewitzian war" and if I remember him right a war is one won archiving one of the following three things (or a mix of them)

Destroying the enemy completly
Destroying his ability to fight
Destroying his will to fight

I believe it is safe to say that the South could not have destroyed the North, and I see it as rather unlikely that they would have been able to take away the Norths abilty to continue fighting due its larger manpower and economy. So the only hope left for them would have been to take away the North will to keep fighting.

**Shek** · 13 Nov 09, 03:29

Originally Posted by 7thsfsniper

I didn't know it was over......

How deep in the woods are you?

On a serious note, are you near Rolla? One of my former colleagues just got of the Army and is running for a House seat near there: Home | Tommy Sowers for Congress

**Blue** · 13 Nov 09, 04:05

Originally Posted by Shek

How deep in the woods are you?

On a serious note, are you near Rolla? One of my former colleagues just got of the Army and is running for a House seat near there: Home | Tommy Sowers for Congress

I'm farther South and West of there. Joplin actually. The prior was just some southern humor. Lots of folks here still contend jokingly that it was never over, hostilities where just suspended till we could recover.

Sorry to not wish a brother success, but given his current affiliation, I have to say the last thing this state needs is another democrat in office.

**Shek** · 13 Nov 09, 11:48

Originally Posted by 7thsfsniper

I'm farther South and West of there. Joplin actually. The prior was just some southern humor. Lots of folks here still contend jokingly that it was never over, hostilities where just suspended till we could recover.

I was tracking that you were joking

Originally Posted by 7thsfsniper

Sorry to not wish a brother success, but given his current affiliation, I have to say the last thing this state needs is another democrat in office.

No problems there - figured you might be interested in checking out how OIF/OEF vets are getting involved in the political landscape, even if they're of a different stripe than you. I'm happy to keep track of how he's doing, and while I haven't checked out his platform, I know that as an economist I'm opposed to his rhetoric on economic develop (although as an economist, I completely understand his incentives and why he's taking his positions in that particular policy area). That being said, I know that he's an upstanding guy and so his positions will be the result of his convictions and not that of some special interest.

**JAD_333** · 13 Nov 09, 13:12

Originally Posted by Albany Rifles

I would say on 1 SEP 1864. Atlanta fell in the West on that day. It was the Fall of Atlanta which provided the key to Lincoln's election success. Mobile fell to Farragut's forces as part of the battles of Mobile Bay.

In the East Grant had Lee pinned into the Petersburg-Richmond line. Lee was decisively engaged and had no ability to maneuver on higher than the tactical level. 2 of the 4 routes into Petersburg were cut and the Army of the Potomoac had weathered the near crippling loss of units having their enlistments run out. After August it only grew stronger with fresh units.

In the Shenandoah Valley Jubal Early is about to be run to ground by Phil Sheridan. In 7 weeks his Early's army would cease to exist.

I have to agree that these events made the inevitability clear for all to see, but with the benefit of hindsight I'd say it was inevitable from the beginning given the Union's advantage in manpower and ability to churn out war material. It was a matter of having a president who would stay the course, which the Union had, and finding competent military leaders who would press the issue.

**rj1** · 13 Nov 09, 13:44

Originally Posted by 7thsfsniper

I didn't know it was over......

A bumper sticker I've seen that I've loved.

North 1, South 0
Halftime

)

**Blue** · 13 Nov 09, 14:36

Originally Posted by Shek

I was tracking that you were joking

well......tongue in cheek anyway.

No problems there - figured you might be interested in checking out how OIF/OEF vets are getting involved in the political landscape, even if they're of a different stripe than you.

Thing is, he will probably win. Former SFs and spec op types have a record at being successful when they set a goal.

I'm happy to keep track of how he's doing, and while I haven't checked out his platform, I know that as an economist I'm opposed to his rhetoric on economic develop (although as an economist, I completely understand his incentives and why he's taking his positions in that particular policy area). That being said, I know that he's an upstanding guy and so his positions will be the result of his convictions and not that of some special interest.

I perused the website but didn't find thing anything outlining any specific policy goals. I don't think all Dems are bad though. Most of the good ones I think are trying to save the party from the hard lefties or just don't know that they are really Libertarians.

Interestingly enough, my brother and I are the only Libertarians in our family. Including step-siblings, step-parents, cousins, uncles, etc. About 70 or 80 people. Three are Republicans and the rest, including my parents, are Democrats. Out of all of them, only one voted for Obama, and the majority have voted Rep for the last three elections. ALL however are pro-gun, conservative authoritarian, christian righties. Go figure. I call it a political identity crisis.

**Blue** · 13 Nov 09, 14:36

Originally Posted by rj1

A bumper sticker I've seen that I've loved.

North 1, South 0
Halftime

)

**astralis** · 13 Nov 09, 14:42

JAD,

I'd say it was inevitable from the beginning given the Union's advantage in manpower and ability to churn out war material. It was a matter of having a president who would stay the course, which the Union had, and finding competent military leaders who would press the issue.

but given the constraints of time, this wasn't an inevitability. if lee had decisively defeated mcclellan at antietam, the british and french were ready to recognize the confederacy. with their recognition and the breaking of the union blockade, it would have been far harder to take down the south.

**astralis** · 13 Nov 09, 14:53

i agree with AR on 1 Sep 1864. as late as july 1864, the union was going through some pretty bad war exhaustion, with both armies seemingly stalled.

the biggest threat wasn't even the nomination of McClellan (he wanted to continue prosecuting the war, too), but the nomination of Seymour. had the copperhead beat both McClellan and Lincoln, the south would either have won its independence...or the pissed off Union armies would have been VERY tempted to go march on Washington.

**Albany Rifles** · 13 Nov 09, 15:19

I looked at your earlier comments about the war not being over in Missouri but that you don't take it too hard.

I was going to add "...except for when it comes to Kansas." to your statement. I know there are no statues to Lane or Blunt in your state! I did a tour along the Kansas - Missouri Border a year ago and it was obvious that the feelings still run deep and hard between the two areas. I am sure if we had Kansas Bear's views he would talk of the raids on Lawrence, etc.

Jayhawkers, Bushwackers, Partisan Rangers, Regulators. There was your hard war.

JAD & Astralis: Ref Antietam. A Confederate victory at Antietam would have prevented Lincoln from issuing the EP. That would have had enormous implications because then the European poweres could feel free to recognize the Confederacy with no fear of political backlash from their respective populaces.

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