World Affairs Board - View Single Post - Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments

-{SpoonmaN}- · 05-20-2005, 06:09 AM

I'm no military expert. I seem to be the only civilian on this forum who looks at the Defense threads and will admit that.

However, I have been working over a lot of info, (Largely from this board) and I think I can speak up on this issue. The PLA has no long range power projection capabilities beyond the use of it's somewhat limited ICBM force. Therefore, it is not comparable with the US Military. Simple fact. The PLA probably does have the ability to crush Taiwan now, but they know the risks involved, and the massive cost of such an invasion would make it pointless right now. The PRC won't attack Taiwan for the forseeable future unless the Republic does something stupid like declare independence. If this was to happen, I'd imagine the communist party (communists in name only Oneman) would have to bow to the enormous pressure they would be under from the large nationalist faction in the PRC and invade. If they did, it's likely they could hold off the USN for a little while, perhaps enough time to land enough troops there to complete the invasion and dig in on Taiwan, perhaps not. One deciding factor in a very near future conflict could be the nature of the US presense in Iraq, as this could continue to tie down a lot of troops for a while. If the PLA could complete the invasion of Taiwan in time, then it is unlikely the US could drive them out without a massive war effort, which probably wouldn't be on the cards. In this case the war would probably settle into a stalemate in which the USN eliminates the PLAN and the USAF carries out airstrikes and the like to damage the Chinese economy and force some concessions out of them until a negotiated peace came along. Nuclear weapons wouldn't be used because I doubt any leader would be stupid enough to destroy their own country in the process of ordering a nuclear realese. At least I sure hope so. In the end, the PLAAF and PLAN are really only disposable forces to slow down the US enough to allow the PLA to seize Taiwan.

And oneman, you need to accept that the PLA just isn't that great right now. They're certainly better than they used to be, and I'm sure they will be much better than they are now in 10 years, but the only job they're certainly good for is defending the PRC and keeping the peace within. It's not a swipe at China or Chinese people to say that your military isn't as great as you might want. Seriously I'm Australian and I can admit the ADF is understrength and lacking in some very basic equipment like ammunition. And we have some New Zealanders on this forum, and they don't even have an Air Force anymore, so imagine how they feel. And I should make the point that having lots of nukes is nothing to be proud of. Anyway, I think everyone needs to relax and stop with the name calling and ego stroking.

05-20-2005, 06:09 AM	#62 (permalink)
-{SpoonmaN}- Death, the Destroyer of Worlds... *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 09-08-04 Location: The badlands of West London. Posts: 1,455 Country:	I'm no military expert. I seem to be the only civilian on this forum who looks at the Defense threads and will admit that. However, I have been working over a lot of info, (Largely from this board) and I think I can speak up on this issue. The PLA has no long range power projection capabilities beyond the use of it's somewhat limited ICBM force. Therefore, it is not comparable with the US Military. Simple fact. The PLA probably does have the ability to crush Taiwan now, but they know the risks involved, and the massive cost of such an invasion would make it pointless right now. The PRC won't attack Taiwan for the forseeable future unless the Republic does something stupid like declare independence. If this was to happen, I'd imagine the communist party (communists in name only Oneman) would have to bow to the enormous pressure they would be under from the large nationalist faction in the PRC and invade. If they did, it's likely they could hold off the USN for a little while, perhaps enough time to land enough troops there to complete the invasion and dig in on Taiwan, perhaps not. One deciding factor in a very near future conflict could be the nature of the US presense in Iraq, as this could continue to tie down a lot of troops for a while. If the PLA could complete the invasion of Taiwan in time, then it is unlikely the US could drive them out without a massive war effort, which probably wouldn't be on the cards. In this case the war would probably settle into a stalemate in which the USN eliminates the PLAN and the USAF carries out airstrikes and the like to damage the Chinese economy and force some concessions out of them until a negotiated peace came along. Nuclear weapons wouldn't be used because I doubt any leader would be stupid enough to destroy their own country in the process of ordering a nuclear realese. At least I sure hope so. In the end, the PLAAF and PLAN are really only disposable forces to slow down the US enough to allow the PLA to seize Taiwan. And oneman, you need to accept that the PLA just isn't that great right now. They're certainly better than they used to be, and I'm sure they will be much better than they are now in 10 years, but the only job they're certainly good for is defending the PRC and keeping the peace within. It's not a swipe at China or Chinese people to say that your military isn't as great as you might want. Seriously I'm Australian and I can admit the ADF is understrength and lacking in some very basic equipment like ammunition. And we have some New Zealanders on this forum, and they don't even have an Air Force anymore, so imagine how they feel. And I should make the point that having lots of nukes is nothing to be proud of. Anyway, I think everyone needs to relax and stop with the name calling and ego stroking.