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Originally Posted by platinum786
The best way to put your views are as such....
you have the red corner, who make China into a supoerpoweer right now...
you have the blue corner who make China into a third world state and military...
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Blue corner is actually the one who wants to turn China into a military monster that needs to be confronted.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
The truth is this. China has a very large military. This military is right now medium tech....it has some aspects edges which are hi-tech (J-11 for example), but the majority isn't, then you have it's low end bits too...which are aslo a minority, the F-7's etc...sure right now they have quite a few, 5 years time those are gonna be replaced with JF-17 and J-10...planes which have sent shockwaves to all noraml rational western watchers...they're not super planes, but they are good planes, they can hold thier own....they put China on a level field.
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It takes more than toys and it's a bit of exergeration about shock waves. 1st, neither the J10 nor the JF17 are going to enter service in numbers by that time. 2nd, there is strong pressures from within the PLAAF to limit those numbers and wait for the next plane. Any plane they buy will have to do 30 years service. Thus, they rather wait until they have a F22 competitor to replace the J7s instead of waiting 30 years to replace the J10s and the JF17s.
The other point you're missing is that it takes people more than toys and that's where the PLA is coming up short in both numbers and in career path. Currently, the vast majority of PLA professionals remain within the officer corps and the place to serve is the one of the Rapid Deployment Force units, bucking for the CMC HQ. That's the career path. However, career path also means that the good regts do not retain a good solid knowledge base nor capable officers.
There has been attempts at Non-Commission reforms but saved for the technical trades, it has not been successful within the combat arms. Part of it is culture, the old man do not like to take orders from young punks.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
Thier SAM systems are incredibly good and getting better....and they ahve an awful lot of them. They do not currently have a navy tha compared with the USN, but they are building one that will.
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No, they're not. They're not even trying. They don't have the funds. They don't have the technology. They don't have the time.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
Right now it's like this, China is in no position to attack Taiwan, because America might interefere and China might lose, however if they did America is in no position to defedn Taiwan because the price is too high, you will get a lot of casulties, now the balance is all in, how much casulties China and USA are willing to take.
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Alot less than you think. China is in no position to attack TW right now except with nukes. Even the blockade option is immensely difficult and none of this need US interference. That 100 miles of water might as well be the Great Wall of Taiwan.
I asked this question before Tiennamen. Can China tolerate another 79 1st Sino-Vietnam War? Where 30,000 died for nothing. The answer is no. The Chinese people today will not tolerate that kind of sacrafice again for nothing and would put the CCP in a lost situation. The backlash from students in Tiennamen almost brought the CCP down. 30,000 angry mothers who lost their sons would be an impossible threat to face down.
Thus, for the PLA, they must take Taiwan in the 1st try no matter what the casualties. If they fail, they won't get a 2nd try. The mothers won't allow it.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
An American attack on China right now could not be held back forever, but it might take 2-3 years to actaully take China, can America afford to fight for that long with near enough 7-800,000 troops, as that is probably what it would tkae, if not vastly more.
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Takes a hell of alot less to destroy a Chinese invasion force and that's all the Americans would want.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
Alll that aside you have the nuclear threat, China can reach America, if china is facing defeat there is a chance they might nuke America ias revenge, how many of your own will you risk to protect Taiwan?
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It's a bluff and both sides know it. The Chinese are modernizing their nuclear force ... at an incredibly slow pace and at times, incomprehensible.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
you see, sitting around waving your flags is all great, but the truth of the matter is, any such war, would be ling, brutal, smashing to the worl economy, impossible to end without a nuclear exchange, who wants to pay that price for Taiwan? China doesn't, nor does America.
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No, it's the PLA's job to plan for such things and it's our job to counter. Whether we start wars or not is not our call. They have to show something for their paycheques just as we do.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
Militarily the future of Tiawan depends on wether China can become on Military par with America, so that they could sucssfully repel US air/sea attacks quickly and at a high price to USA and low price to PRC.
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You're misreading the entire intent. The PLA's intent is to delay American intervention until the ground action on TW and present a fait-accompli to the Americans. And the victory would not be military but political whatever that means.
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Originally Posted by platinum786
India....doesn't come into the Equation. India is too small to compete with China on military terms. The chinese have currently 200+ flankers as well as FBC-1 and thier J-7's....the Indian airforce do not pose any threat, in fact they are under threat.
By 2010-15 India will probably have an airforce capable of causing damage to the PRC and so will probably secure themselves a footing, but still not on the level of China, why because quite simply India isn't arming itself to tkae on a world Superpower to get Tiawan, India is arming itself, not to beat Pakistan, but to overwhelm it, totally smash it, but that is another story.
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Why does everybody love the birdbrains so much? India and China face each other with bellycrawlers and certainly, not with the boat people.